2019 Ultimate Guide to March Madness

I can’t believe March Madness is here! Champ Week was incredible. We saw two amazing games in the semifinals in the ACC and SEC with Duke upending UNC and Tennessee squeaking past Kentucky in two of the best rivalry games of the College Basketball season. My favorite time of the year may very well be the opening week of March Madness. A multitude of games going on at once. Flipping from channel to channel and see if my bracket is still in tact. Yelling and screaming after my “perfect” bracket turns into a dumpster fire. Yep, that’s March Madness. Will the blue bloods in Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, or Kansas take the title? Will a deep sleeper like Oregon, Belmont, or Murray State pull off a VCU/Loyola Chicago type run? That’s what makes the NCAA Tournament so exciting. Enjoy the article and no matter how confident you feel about your bracket, just remember...don’t bet on it!

First Four Predictions

Since 2011 when the First Four in Dayton was born, at least one play-in team has won in the Round of 64. Can Belmont be next?

Belmont def Temple 81-74

The Bruins will want to prove that as a mid-major, they belong in the tournament. Their inclusion into the tournament was controversial but I believe they deserved the bid for sure. Temple isn’t bad and could easily take the game. That being said, Temple doesn’t run away from teams and Belmont averages 87.4 points a game which means a probable shootout. I can’t see the Owls keeping up for a full forty minutes.

North Dakota St def North Carolina Central 61-51

North Carolina Central was in this same spot last year and got blasted. That could be an opportunity for redemption. However, North Dakota State is a much better team and should be an easy win for the winners of the Summit League.

Arizona State def St John’s 80-79

The Sun Devils were in the First Four last year like NCCU and will not want to be bounced early two years running. Meanwhile, St. Johns is ice cold, losing four out of five. A true toss up but I’ll go with ASU.

Fairleigh Dickinson def Prairie View A&M 69-58

I’ve never watched either of these teams play more than five minutes and whoever wins will likely be mincemeat for Gonzaga but hey...tell that to Virginia.

Bracket Analysis

*My definition of a “sleeper” is a non top 3 seed*

EAST

This is Duke’s region to lose. Michigan State could prove to be some trouble though. However, with freshman phenom Zion Williamson in the game, the Blue Devils should be able to navigate through the bracket with relative ease. If Belmont makes it out of the First Four and knocks off Maryland, we could be seeing another potential “Loyola-Chicago” from last year. Virginia Tech can also shoot the basketball from the outside and they get their best player, Justin Robinson back for a tourney run. The Liberty Flames would be a nice pick for a classic 5 vs 12 upset over Mississippi State.

My Final Four Pick: Duke Blue Devils

Sleepers to consider: Virginia Tech, Belmont

MIDWEST

I’d call the Midwest the “Region of Death.” UNC, Kentucky, Kansas, Iowa State, Houston, Auburn. Goodness gracious. Don’t forget about the Wofford Terriers as well. Whoever manages to come out of the Midwest will be battle tested and ready for the Final Four. If Kansas manages to get to the Sweet Sixteen, they will have essential home-court advantage (Kansas City) which will definitely work in their favor. I really like Iowa State, fresh off a Big 12 Championship, to make some serious noise in the region. I have them in the Elite 8. When it’s all said and done, the Tar Heels have been to two out of the last three Final Fours and their balanced offensive attack will get them past Kansas City and into the semifinals.

My Final Four Pick: North Carolina Tar Heels

Sleepers to consider: Iowa State, Seton Hall

SOUTH

UVA and Tennessee lead the field in the battle to reach the Final Four. The Cavaliers want to wash away the stench of becoming the first one seed to lose to a 16 seed (UMBC). That should motivate them to make a deep run in this year’s tournament. After making a run at the Pac 12, the Oregon Ducks may be in store for a little bit more. It would be a crime if I didn’t mention the defending national champions as they are back in the mix. Can Nova Nation make a run at perhaps another Final Four run? I’d be concerned with their showdown with Saint Mary’s first. If you want an interesting pick, 13 Seeded UC Irvine with 30 victories this season has a serious bid to knock off Kansas State as I see that as the weekend's biggest scare.

My Final Four Pick: Tennessee Volunteers

Sleepers to consider: Villanova, Oregon

WEST

It may very well be the Wild Wild West in 2019. Gonzaga is the clear favorite but I could see three or four other teams make a deep run and upset the Zags. Michigan and Florida State as the higher seeds and with Buffalo and Florida representing the lower seeds to make a potential run. Ja Morant and the Murray State Racers have a nice opportunity in their second consecutive NCAA appearance to steal a game. Overall, you can’t pick every one seed to advance and Gonzaga seems the most vulnerable to me. Florida State has my pick in what looks like a region full of chaos in the making.

My Final Four Pick: Florida State Seminoles

Sleepers to consider: Buffalo, Florida

March Madness Bracket Tips

Don’t waste too much time researching

Usually the people that spend hours on end to create a “perfect” bracket end up in last place in their bracket pool. It’s just for fun and super difficult to predict. Go with your gut and don’t overthink filling in teams too much.

Pick a 11 Seed to upset a 6 Seed

There is a lot of talk about the “5 vs 12” upset but the "6 vs 11" is the one to pick. In every year since 2005, an upset has occurred here.

If you do pick a double digit seed to advance far in the tournament, pick an 11

Once about every five years, an 11 seed makes it to the Final Four. Last year, Loyola Chicago stunned everyone by making it to the Final Four. Before that was VCU in 2011. Only Syracuse in 2016 was the lone 10 seed to make a run to the semifinals. Only one team seeded lower than 11 has made it past the Sweet Sixteen (Missouri in 2002).

Accept the fact that you will not have a perfect bracket

Statisticians have calculated that you have approximately a 9.2 quintillion chance of accomplishing this feat...good luck. If you get past the first day with a perfect bracket, let me know. I’ll buy you a cookie.

Cinderella Potential

Which team can grab an upset and/or go far in the tournament as a lower seed?

7 SEED: Wofford Terriers (29-4)

Undefeated in SoCon play, Wofford is primed for a tournament run. The Terriers have never won an NCAA tournament game but ranked in the AP Top 20 for the first time ever, could this be the year they do it? They certainly have the momentum, currently in the midst of a 20 game winning streak. Fletcher Magee reminds me a lot of Stephen Curry the way he pulls up for three after three. Not surprisingly, Magee leads the country in three point shooting. Wofford played UNC tough in the season opener and swept quality teams in Furman, who was ranked at one point, and UNC Greensboro. Magee and forward Cameron Jackson have enough in the tank to pull off an upset...or two.

Floor: Round of 64

Ceiling: Sweet Sixteen

PROJECTED FINISH: Round of 64

6 SEED: Buffalo Bulls (31-3)

I feel like I shouldn’t consider Buffalo an “upset” pick for the Round of 64 but if you are looking for a major sleeper for the Final Four, the Bulls are an excellent choice. Last year as a #13 seed, CJ Massinburg helped take down the number one overall pick in the 2018 NBA Draft Deandre Ayton and the Arizona Wildcats. It wasn’t even close. With more experience, this Bulls team knows what it takes to compete against College Basketball’s best. They’ve beaten Syracuse earlier in the year and only have three losses on the season. This team knows how to finish as they rank number 2 in second half points, ranking only behind Gonzaga. Buffalo is a must pick.

Floor: Round of 32

Ceiling: Sweet Sixteen

PROJECTED FINISH: Sweet Sixteen

12 SEED: Oregon Ducks (23-12)

Winners of eight straight, the Ducks are ready to make some noise in the NCAA Tournament. They had to be seeded here because of their resume but I feel like this team may be that team. After making a run at the Pac 12, this team may be in store for a little bit more. Oregon should be a surefire pick over Wisconsin in my most confident upset pick. After that, things get a little tricky. If UC Irvine pulls off the stunner in San Jose, the Ducks may find themselves on a collision course with Virginia. Sweet Sixteen is an attainable goal but after that, I’m not so sure.

Floor: Round of 64

Ceiling: Sweet Sixteen

PROJECTED FINISH: Sweet Sixteen

8 SEED: VCU Rams (25-7)

Could this be deja vu for the Rams? It was slightly concerning that they got bounced in the quarterfinals of the A-10 Tournament. That shouldn’t deter you from picking VCU to win a game or two in the tournament. Unfortunately if they manage to get past UCF in Round 1, they get a lovely date with Zion and the Blue Devils in all likelihood.

Floor: Round of 64

Ceiling: Round of 32

PROJECTED FINISH: Round of 32

13 SEED: UC Irvine Anteaters (30-5)

This is a team that probably won’t make many headlines but could make waves in a couple of days. Winners of sixteen straight games, a team on a hot streak is a scary thing. Add in the fact that they rank inside the top 20 in total defense and this could be a surprising upset.

Floor: Round of 64

Ceiling: Round of 32

PROJECTED FINISH: Round of 64

12 SEED: Liberty Flames (28-6)

The champions of the Atlantic Sun are back in the big dance. For Liberty to pull off the stunner, they will have to rely on their highly touted defense. They rank 6th in Division I, allowing just 60.8 points a game. They have yet to play a top 25 team this year so it is tough to say if their defense would hold up. However, the Flames have beaten a decent Power 5 school in UCLA on the road along with Lipscomb twice.

Floor: Round of 64

Ceiling: Sweet Sixteen

PROJECTED FINISH: Round of 32

14 SEED: Northern Kentucky Norse (26-8)

I hadn’t seen much of the Norse until Champ Week. They certainly looked like a legit team with their heroics against Oakland and then handling Wright St to secure the automatic bid in the Horizon League. I’m not going to lie and tell you I actually watch a lot of NKU basketball because I...you know...have a life. However, this team can score the basketball. They rank 41st in Division I, averaging nearly 80 points a game. If you want to pull off a tournament upset, shooting the lights out is a must. NKU seems to fit the bill.

Floor: Round of 64

Ceiling: Round of 32

PROJECTED FINISH: Round of 32

Upset Alert

Which favored team has a chance to bow out of the tournament early?

7 SEED: Nevada Wolf Pack

Who have they played? Utah State? South Dakota State? Loyola Chicago? Last year they made it far because of the “unknown” factor. Although this is a veteran team, Nevada isn’t going to sneak up on anyone this time. Bowing out before their conference championship in the Mountain West isn’t a good look either. Florida made a great run in the SEC tournament and look to have found momentum.

5 SEED: Marquette Golden Eagles

The Golden Eagles have crashed down to earth, losing five of six coming out of the Big East Tournament. This one screams UPSET to me. Confidence is something you need going into the tournament and Marquette seems to have lost its rhythm. The Racers are a terrible matchup for Marquette as Murray State ranks in the top 15 in total offense. I’d watch this game very closely.

7 SEED: Louisville Cardinals

Louisville’s weakness is something that will get you beat in the tournament. This isn’t just a one-time thing either. Blowing a 23 point lead against Duke was rough. They almost inexplicably lost a seven point lead with 17 seconds left against Clemson the following week. They held onto the win by one point but there was absolutely no need for drama late. If they aren’t careful, their next blown lead could be their last.

5 SEED: Wisconsin Badgers

Wisconsin may have gotten one of the worst matchups. First off, they got the dreaded “5 vs 12” matchup. Secondly, they get an Oregon Ducks squad that is fresh off two impressive wins over Arizona State and Washington to win the Pac-12 and steal a bid in the tournament. They don’t really score a lot of points, averaging 69.6 points a game (257th in DI), so barring an unexpected scoring outburst, I would definitely avoid picking the Badgers here.

6 SEED: Villanova Wildcats

Similar to Oregon, Saint Mary’s is coming in on an emotional high after upsetting Gonzaga to take the West Coast conference. Winning the Big East Tournament in a nailbiter against the dark horse Seton Hall Pirates is great for the defending National Champs too. Nova has won six of eight so perhaps they are catching a second wind after losing three straight earlier in the year. I just have one of those feelings about this game.

My Projected Bracket

Round of 64 Upsets (Total: 8):

12 Liberty over 5 Mississippi State

11 Belmont over 6 Maryland

12 Murray State over 5 Marquette

14 Northern Kentucky over 3 Texas Tech

10 Florida over 7 Nevada

12 Oregon over 5 Wisconsin

11 Saint Mary’s over 6 Villanova

10 Seton Hall over 7 Wofford

Round of 32 Upsets (Total: 5):

11 Belmont over 3 LSU

8 Syracuse over 1 Gonzaga

12 Oregon over 4 Kansas State

5 Auburn over 4 Kansas

6 Iowa State over 3 Houston

Sweet Sixteen Upsets (Total: 1)

6 Iowa State over 2 Kentucky

Elite 8 Upsets (Total: 2)

2 Tennessee over 1 Virginia

4 Florida State over 2 Michigan

Final Four (Total: 0)

Final Four

Duke def Florida State 79-74

North Carolina def Tennessee 80-77

National Championship

North Carolina def Duke 78-74

Final Bracket (ClarkMadness)