#BowlSZN2025 | College Football Playoff Predictions
- Christian Clark
- Dec 11
- 11 min read
WACO, TX (December 11th, 2025)- December is here, which means we’re officially on the doorstep of crowning a college football national champion. It’s year two of the 12-team Playoff, and once again, it delivered exactly what we expected: drama, debate, and plenty of controversy. The teams ranked 1 through 8 were basically set, with seeding being the only real variable. The real conversation came down to the last two at-large spots.
Was Alabama deserving? On paper, it's debatable. Losing to a 5–7 Florida State team in the opener and then getting run off the field by Georgia in the SEC Championship does not exactly scream "playoff lock." But leaving them out also punishes a team for playing a 13th game and opens up a much bigger debate about whether conference championship games even matter anymore. And let’s be honest, it’s Alabama. If it's close, they're going to get in.
Then you had the Miami vs Notre Dame debate. Notre Dame’s two losses were labeled “high quality,” but one of those losses was to Miami in a three-point game, 27–24, in the season opener. When you stack up the resumes, the metrics and records were essentially identical. At that point, head-to-head has to matter. The committee agreed. Alabama slid in at No. 9, and Miami grabbed the final spot at No. 10.
Do I agree with how the committee ranked teams along the way? Not really. Why Notre Dame stayed ahead of Miami until the final rankings makes zero sense, especially since both teams were idle during championship weekend. The committee adjusts its own criteria depending on who it wants in the field. It's that simple and it's ridiculous. Still, this is the trade-off that comes with expansion, and it’s a trade I’m more than willing to make. We moved from a four-team Playoff to a twelve-team one, and neither Miami nor Notre Dame would have been anywhere near the conversation in the old format.
This bracket has everything. Elite defenses, explosive offenses, fun 'Group of Five' stories, and multiple chances at regular-season rematches, including two right out of the gate in the First Round. As a fan, it’s hard to complain.
With the field set, it’s time to roll into my College Football Playoff projections and figure out who’s actually built to survive and who’s headed for an early holiday.
First Round
Points will be at a premium as the 2025 CFP kicks off in Norman. This Friday Night Lights clash brings a rematch of the November 15th showdown in Tuscaloosa, where Brent Venables’ defense stole the spotlight. A first half pick-six set the tone in what became a 23–21 Sooners win which ultimately jump-started OU’s playoff run. Oklahoma has won the last two against Bama. Can the third time be the charm for the Tide?
Ty Simpson and the Alabama offense have struggled down the stretch, and facing one of the nation’s best defenses means they’ll need to play smart, clean football while trying to force John Mateer into a mistake or two. Oklahoma’s offense isn’t the flashiest, but they make timely plays and lean on their home-run threat receiver Isaiah Sategna III (948 yards, 7 TDs) when they need a spark.
This one feels like a coin flip, and it’s always tough to beat a team twice in the same season, especially Alabama. But this isn’t Saban’s Crimson Tide, and we’re seeing a much more mortal version of Bama this year. I’ll take the Sooners to edge out Kalen DeBoer’s squad at home and raise even more questions about the future of this premier program.
The pick: Sooners 19, Crimson Tide 17
The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) was in real danger of being left out of the 12-team Playoff altogether, but it’s clear Miami was the league’s best team this season. Dummy tiebreakers pushed them out of the conference championship in favor of Duke, but the CFP rankings told a different story. “The U” closed the year playing its best football, blowing out five opponents by at least 17 points. Their lone loss during that stretch came on the road in overtime against SMU, a Playoff team last year that still has plenty of talent.
Miami’s defense is one of the best units in the country, and this isn’t a case of stat-padding against weak competition. The Canes flat-out out-physicaled Notre Dame, and that statement win is ultimately what pushed them into the postseason field.
Texas A&M also put together one of the best seasons in program history, racing out to an 11–0 start before their rival Longhorns spoiled perfection with a 27–17 loss. Like Miami, the Aggies own a win over Notre Dame, pulling it out in the final moments. This matchup feels like a coin flip. Can Miami handle the noise and chaos of the 12th Man at Kyle Field?
If the Canes win, it’s because Carson Beck plays clean, mistake-free football. During their loss to Louisville, his turnovers cost them a very winnable contest. If A&M’s dominant pass rusher Cashius Howell forces an early strip-sack and creates short fields for quarterback Marcel Reed and Co., it could spark an avalanche. On the flip side, if the Aggies start slow like they did against South Carolina and later against Texas, Miami will have the edge. Aggies' receiver K.C. Concepcion could break the game open if he can get the ball consistently.
It’s tough to go against home-field advantage here, but my gut says Mario Cristobal and Miami find a way to make a statement, pull off the road upset, and prove the committee right in the process.
The pick: Hurricanes 31, Aggies 27
The Green Wave are no strangers to marquee matchups and have consistently shown they can compete with college football’s “big dogs” during Willie Fritz’s tenure and now under Jon Sumrall. Their biggest win in recent memory came against Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams and USC in the 2023 Cotton Bowl Classic, winning 46-45. While Sumrall’s success has recently earned him the head coaching job at Florida, Tulane remains well-positioned for continued success. Establishing that foundation begins with a strong showing against a premier SEC opponent in this CFP matchup.
Ole Miss and Tulane have faced off twice over the past two seasons, with the Rebels sweeping the series, winning 37–20 in 2023 and 45–10 earlier this year. Tulane does own an impressive win over ACC champion Duke, so their résumé is far from empty. Still, Ole Miss’ offense has been on a tear, scoring at least 30 points in six consecutive games and in 10 of 12 contests this season. Despite Tulane’s strong year overall, the Rebels should be able to pull away with relative ease.
The pick: Rebels 34, Green Wave 17
Is there any room for an upset in Eugene? If there is a path, it likely has to be carried, both literally and figuratively, by JMU running back Wayne Knight. The 5’7” junior has real big-play juice, already ripping off runs of 78, 59, and 58 yards this season.
Yes, it’s a completely different animal in the trenches against a Power Four program on the road, but it’s not impossible if the Dukes’ second-ranked rushing defense (77.2 YPG allowed) can make things uncomfortable for Oregon’s offense. That said, just getting to this stage is a massive win for James Madison and its fan base. The brand exposure matters...but realistically, this is probably where the buck stops.
The pick: Ducks 45, Dukes 15
Quarterfinals
COTTON BOWL | #2 Ohio State Buckeyes [12-1] vs #10 Miami Hurricanes [11-2] | New Years Eve (7:30pm ET)
Fresh off their upset on the road in College Station, the Hurricanes will have the toughest test of the season when they travel to Dallas to take on the defending national champions in the Cotton Bowl. The Buckeyes are led by sophomore phenom and Heisman Finalist Julian Sayin, whose 31 touchdown passes have positioned Ohio State well for another deep championship run.
There's not much the Buckeyes do wrong. The defense is ranked number one in the nation, allowing just 8.2 points per game and they haven't allowed over 17 points in any game this year. The Canes defense is not too far behind (6th in the nation in points allowed [13.6 PPG]). Both teams also rank in the top ten in third down conversions allowed as well as completion percentage allowed (Ohio State #1, Miami #2). Expect a chess match more so than seeing receivers streaking wide open down the field.
For Miami, you'll have to win ugly and force Ohio State to make uncharacteristic mistakes. The difference here is at QB as it's more likely for Carson Beck (10 INTs) to make a bad throw than Sayin (6 INTs). In a game of tight margins, I can't fully trust Beck to play mistake free against the best defense in college football. Unless Miami can return the favor, expect Ohio State to continue their march.
The pick: Buckeyes 23, Hurricanes 16
This. Is. SPARTA....I mean the Orange Bowl. This matchup is going to an incredible tactical battle. The Red Raiders have all of their 12 wins by 20 points or more. They are an absolute MACHINE and no one is talking about them as a true title threat. 34-10 against Utah and holding BYU to 7 points twice is uber impressive. However, Oregon is the toughest opponent that Texas Tech has faced this year so don't expect a runaway on either side. Both Oregon and Texas Tech are top ten in total offense and defense so there's no clear advantage on either side. Where there is an advantage is the takeaways as TTU's Joey McGuire's squad leads the nation in total team takeaways (31 on the year).
When I look at the season results, Oregon's offense is solid but the offensive output is a bit variable. I'm concerned how Ducks' quarterback Dante Moore has struggled against the better defenses on his schedule against Iowa and Indiana, he threw for under 200 yards passing. Texas Tech hasn't faced a defense like Oregon's so it's very possible that Behren Morton struggles too, despite just tossing four picks all year long. Expect a low-scoring first half before a Texas Tech takeaway in the second half proves to be the narrow separator.
The pick: Red Raiders 23, Ducks 20
“I win. Google me.”
Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti has done the unthinkable, turning a historically irrelevant Big Ten bottom-feeder into a legitimate football powerhouse in just two years. Is this the greatest turnaround in college football history? I don’t have a list in front of me, but it has to be near the top. Two seasons ago, imagine putting Indiana and “Rose Bowl” in the same sentence. That felt impossible. Now, a national championship feels like a real conversation.
Whoever survives the Oklahoma-Alabama first-round slugfest gets “rewarded” with a matchup against the No. 1 team in the country. This is where the Sooners' offensive limitations could finally catch up to them. I trust the Sooners’ defense completely to create chaos, rack up sacks, and force a turnover. But can John Mateer take advantage and make enough plays against another elite defense? I’m not convinced.
Oklahoma has made a habit of hanging around in games even when they’re getting out-gained on the stat sheet. That’s not nothing. My call: the Sooners play scrappy, make it ugly, and grab a 17–16 lead late in the fourth quarter. Then Indiana star quarterback Fernando Mendoza does it again, leading a game-winning touchdown drive to keep this historic season alive.
The pick: Hoosiers 23, Sooners 17
The best game of the quarterfinal round has all the makings of an instant classic in New Orleans. Ole Miss’ lone loss this season came against Georgia and Rebels fans can't help but feel they let one slip away. Mississippi had a 35-26 lead before Georgia stormed back in the 4th to win it. It was a clean game with no turnovers between the two squads but UGA controlled the time of possession, holding the ball for almost 38 minutes.
Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss is one of the best dual-threats in the country, and 300-plus passing-yard games have become a way of life for him. He’s hit that mark seven times this season and in the SEC, that's pretty darn impressive. The question is whether Chambliss has the blueprint to exploit Georgia’s defense again, or if the Bulldogs make the necessary adjustments and clamp down on the Rebels’ high-octane passing attack.
It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Ole Miss pulls this off. That said, Lane Kiffin’s departure to LSU is hard to ignore. Those behind-the-scenes factors tend to matter in close games, especially at this stage in the season. In the end, I’ll bank on Kirby Smart dialing up just enough schematic tweaks to push Georgia through in another tight battle.
The pick: Bulldogs 28, Rebels 24
Semifinals
As the clock struck 12 on New Year's Eve, the nation was treated to fireworks in 2022. Ohio State's C.J. Stroud and Georgia's Stetson Bennett went toe-to-toe in an all-time classic semifinal game with both QBs passing for over 340 yards in the air. "For a spot in the National Championship game...It's on the way...NO GOOD! And Georgia is going to survive." A call that propelled Georgia to another chip and Ohio State with a sour taste in their mouth.
Who will emerge victorious in the rematch? Back-to-back champions seldomly happen and yes, Georgia just completed that feat a few years ago but odds are it won't happen again. It doesn't help that the Buckeyes are 0-3 in New Year's Six games against SEC teams in the Ryan Day era. In a close battle, Ohio State allows over 20 points on defense for the first time this season as the Bulldogs knock through a game-winning field goal to send Georgia back to the title game.
The pick: Bulldogs 23, Buckeyes 20
This is a true 50-50 game on paper. I can easily envision both of these squads winning it all. Rock-solid defenses will headline the show. For Indiana, they do it all. Their secondary, led by 5'11 defensive back senior Louis Moore (6 INTs), will be tasked with slowing down TTU receiver Caleb Douglas who has at least six games with at least five receptions. When I boil this matchup down, it comes back to the most important position in football. Quarterback. In a game this tight, I trust Fernando Mendoza far more than I trust Behren Morton. That’s the difference. In another jaw-dropping finish, Indiana escapes with another victory to remain undefeated and advance to their first CFP title game.
The pick: Hoosiers 26, Red Raiders 24
National Championship- Miami
It's time to get your popcorn ready if my projected National Championship comes to fruition. Who will take home the crown? I've been going back and forth. Personally, any of the top four seeds could win and I wouldn't blink an eye.
My heart says Indiana, my mind says Georgia. They've been there and done that. Most of the nation will be pulling for the Hoosiers to pull off the cinderella story and complete arguably the quickest turnaround in college football history. I've seen this story play out too many times though whether that be the Super Bowl or National Championship. For the third time this decade, the Georgia Bulldogs will hoist the trophy and become National Champions.
The pick: Georgia 24, Indiana 20
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