Setting the Stage
(July 5th, 2021) - We're finally out of the "bubble" and life is going back to the way things were. Fans have entered the arena and, for better or for worse, have made things interesting throughout the playoffs. From helping the refs count at the free throw line, to inexplicably throwing popcorn at players, and of course the infamous "Suns in 4" guy, it's refreshing to hear something other than silence and fake crowd noise in the stands.
The 2021 edition of NBA playoffs have been wild with unexpected series upsets and unfortunate injuries that have defined much of the storylines. LeBron James lost in the first-round for the first time in his storied career as the injury-riddled Lakers lost to the Suns in 6. The Clippers were left with a "what-if" when Kawhi Leonard went down with a knee injury against the Jazz. The Eastern Conference saw similar fates from a health standpoint as Kyrie Irving, Trae Young, Kemba Walker, and James Harden all suffered varying degree of injuries. However, it was the supporting cast of Giannis' Bucks, who suffered an injury of his own, to get to the Finals for the first time in nearly five decades. The Suns might've been the healthiest team out of the final four squads and took advantage to reach the championship series.
Starting on Tuesday night at 9pm ET, the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns will begin their quest to end their franchise championship droughts. For those looking for more parity in sports and in the NBA, this is the matchup for you. It's not the typical "LeBron vs Curry" matchup as we saw for half a decade but it's a fresh matchup to put the league's rising stars in the spotlight. Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Khris Middleton are the big names but there are plenty of other role players that will be a big factor in who emerges victorious.
Culture is contagious and can fester quickly, positively or negatively. In my perfectly crafted metaphor, a forest takes YEARS to grow even a miniscule amount. For the Eastern Conference representative, the Bucks were a nice story as the 6th-8th seed during the mid 2010s but were mostly considered "playoff fodder"until the last couple of years. Now the forest has reached maturation. Milwaukee was patient by building a roster as their core only has one player drafted in the top 10 (Brook Lopez). Their path to the NBA Finals started all the way back in 2013. That year, Milwaukee took a chance on an 18-year-old from Athens, Greece. Giannis had never been to the United States until that year. Despite most people unable to pronounce or spell his name, "The Greek Freak" ascended to the top of the league, winning back-to-back MVPs in 2019 and 2020. Now, can he add the most prestigious award to his resume: The Larry O'Brien trophy?
Meanwhile, a fire ignites from 0 to 100 in the blink of an eye. Before Phoenix unexpectedly blazed through the playoffs, they were another type of fire...a dumpster fire. Since the 2009-10 season, the Suns had not made the playoffs, only had one winning record (2013), and had a three year stretch where they were the worst team in the Western Conference. However, the spark began when the Suns struck gold with the 13th pick in the 2015 NBA Draft, selecting Devin Booker out of Kentucky. In the next few years, they would add Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, and Deandre Ayton to help form the core that elevated them to the NBA Finals.
Monty Williams became the head coach of Phoenix in 2019 and there was a notable improvement in the team's competitiveness, going 34-39 and missing out on the newly-minted play-in tournament due to a tie-breaker. The 2021 edition of the Suns carried over that momentum from their late-season run and never looked back. Now, can Phoenix complete quite possibly the greatest turnaround in NBA history and win the franchise's first chip? Read on to find out...
Team Intros
Phoenix Suns- Western Conference (51-21 regular season record, 12-4 in playoffs)
Advanced to first Finals since 1993
3rd appearance in Finals, 0-2 record
Leading scorer [postseason]: Devin Booker (27 PPG, 6.4 REB, 4.8 AST)
Best game in 2021 playoffs: Game 2 vs. LA Clippers- "Valley Oop" game
Why root for PHX? Perennial bottom-feeders are on the verge of a miraculous franchise turnaround. Led by Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton, the time is now to take advantage of league-wide injuries and capture their first NBA title.
Milwaukee Bucks- Eastern Conference (46-26 regular season record, 12-5 in playoffs)
Advanced to first Finals since 1974
3rd appearance in Finals, 0-2 record
Leading scorer [postseason]: Giannis Antetokounmpo (28.2 PPG, 12.7 REB, 5.2 AST)
Best game in 2021 playoffs: Game 7 vs. Brooklyn- Bucks take down the BKN super-team in OT
Why root for MIL? Fan favorite Giannis is in his first Finals and can add to his legacy with a championship. Prior to the 2018-19 season, the Bucks hadn't made it past the first round since 2001 and now can finally get past the hump of failed playoff runs.
2021 Season Series: Suns won 2-0
Suns won 125-124 on Feb 10th, 2021
Suns won 128-127 in overtime on April 19th, 2021
Fun Facts:
No single player on the Bucks or Suns roster have won an NBA title; first time since 1977 (credit to ESPN); Jae Crowder is the only player that has played in a Finals
Suns' Torrey Craig will get a championship ring regardless of who wins. He played with Milwaukee earlier in the season
X-Factors
An X-Factor is a player that isn't a usual suspect to carry his team but has potential to do so. If they step up, they could tilt the needle in their team's favor. Starting with the Suns, small forward Cameron Johnson has been extremely impressive. Averaging 9.6 points per game in the regular season, the third-year pro out of North Carolina stepped up his game in the Western Conference Finals. He's shooting 70% from the field and nearly 63% from three-point range in 24 minutes played per game. If he can continue his solid string of games coming off the bench, Phoenix is in fantastic shape.
For the Bucks, shooting guard Bryn Forbes is the X-Factor to watch. He's been hot and cold throughout the playoffs. However, his first round series performance against Miami was quite the show. In Games 2 and 4, Forbes made a combined 16 three-pointers and 44 total points to help Milwaukee win the series in dominating fashion. A couple of timely, momentum-changing threes could go a long way to stealing a game and winning the Finals.
Game Analysis
It's finally time for the 2021 NBA Finals and it's a matchup that no one expected at the start of the season. The title favorites included the Nets, Lakers, and Clippers but the young Suns and experienced Bucks defied the critics to get within four games from standing on top of the NBA throne.
At Disney World in 2020, the "Bubble Suns" did everything they could, going 8-0 but still couldn't make the play-in tournament. Everyone knew head coach Monty Williams was building something special in the desert and after adding 16-year veteran Chris Paul and forward Jae Crowder from Miami, the expectations were to squeak into the playoffs in a challenging Western Conference. Phoenix not only ended their playoff drought, but finished just one game from the best record in the league.
For Milwaukee in 2020, they looked primed to make the COVID-19 edition of the Finals until they ran into the hottest team in the playoffs: the Miami Heat. They looked like a "deer in the headlights" as they lost in five games in the bubble and another Giannis injury cast doubt that the Bucks would ever be able to get it done. Perhaps that's what was needed. Doubt from the outside to fuel them to greater heights.
When Giannis went down with an injury in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals this season, a large contingency of fans automatically penciled in the Atlanta Hawks to advance to the Finals, especially after beating a lifeless Bucks team by 22. Khris Middleton said "challenge accepted." Middleton scored 26 and 32 points during Giannis' absence. He wasn't the only one that stepped up. Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, and Jrue Holiday all had 20+ points in a momentum changing Game 5.
The Suns and Bucks are the number one and two defenses respectfully throughout the playoffs so don't get caught off guard when we see an old-school scoreline in the 80s or low 90s. The key for both teams will be getting into the paint. Bucks center Brook Lopez had a playoff career high in Game 5 vs Atlanta, scoring 33 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists. Meanwhile, Deandre Ayton will need to continue his dominant rebounding ability. His 22 rebound performance in Game 4 of the WCF was second all-time by a Suns player since Charles Barkley (credit to @MikoPalero on Twitter).
Despite playing through a broken nose, guard Devin Booker has made clutch shots when he was needed the most. He'll need to step it up a bit as his field goal percentage was underwhelming. After Game 1 of the WCF, he shot under 35% from the field. He was hot in the previous two series vs the Lakers and Nuggets so he should be able to break out of his recent funk. Milwaukee's Jrue Holiday will be the most important starter if the Bucks hope to win the Finals. Everyone will look to Khris Middleton who has a knack for showing up in must-win games. However, if Holiday can alleviate some of the load for Middleton and if/when Giannis returns, the Bucks will be in the driver's seat.
This series could go either way and it comes down to the health of Giannis Antetokounmpo. If he plays more than half the series and is at least 75-80% healthy, I expect Milwaukee to win in 6 or 7 games. If he is laboring due to injury during the game and/or even becomes a hinderance to the team, the Suns' tenacious defense will certainly take advantage in a series where every game should be competitive. No matter what, I'm confident this series goes at least six games regardless of the lineups. Both of these teams are just too darn good.
Can the Bucks win the Finals without Giannis? Absolutely. If Games 5 and 6 vs Atlanta are any indication, they should be more than alright. The key will be if their role players can stay consistent against a top-flight defense. In all three series clinchers, MIL has won on the road in tough environments. PHX did so as well, winning on the road in two of three series so home-court advantage might be a wash. This is the most unpredictable Finals in a long time and I'm excited to watch it.
For the first time, I'm going to make two predictions due to the unpredictability of Giannis' injury timeline. Regardless of what scenario plays out, it's gonna be a fun one and the winner will have earned it, injuries or not. It's a part of the game and sometimes, that's how life works. No asterisks. Just championships.
Final Prediction: If Giannis plays at least 1/2 the Finals: Bucks in 7 | If Giannis does NOT play 1/2 the Finals: Suns in 6
Finals MVP for scenario #1: Khris Middleton, Bucks
Finals MVP for scenario #2: Chris Paul, Suns
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