We're back everyone...
March Madness is the BEST tournament in North American sports. There's nothing quite like it. We witnessed #16 seeded Fairleigh Dickinson [FDU], arguably the worst team in the tournament, defeat the #1 seed Purdue Boilermakers. This was just the second time in the tournament's history to see this phenomenon occur. That overshadowed another remarkable upset as the #15 seed, the Ivy League's Princeton Tigers, defeated #2 Arizona en route to the Sweet Sixteen.
It's certainly nice to see a change of pace from the usual blue bloods. Even as a fan of UNC basketball, it's refreshing to see smaller conferences and programs get the spotlight throughout this wacky tournament. The traditional powerhouses were nowhere to be found. Among the Final Four participants from last year, not one of them made the Sweet Sixteen. North Carolina and Villanova didn't even make the big dance while Duke and Kansas got bounced in the Round of 32.
After all the dust has settled, we're left with four teams. Let me just say, there is no scenario where I saw this combination of teams making it this far. Florida Atlantic. Miami. San Diego State. UConn. A Final Four that very few predicted. Out of 20 million brackets on ESPN, just 37 brackets saw this one coming. That's just...wow. For the first time, a #1, #2, and #3 seed failed to qualify for the semifinals. In addition, every team but UConn is making their first appearance in the Final Four.
Are all of these "firsts" just a "blip on the radar" or are these unprecedented feats a sign of things to come in college basketball?
There are three factors that I believe have changed the trajectory of college basketball forever. The transfer portal has become an essential component of the last few seasons, turning into the "free agency" of college basketball. What about the one-and-done in college basketball? The constant turnover from big-name programs has caused less continuity on rosters. Finally, we have the super seniors that are still lingering from the NCAA granted "COVID" year. Experience does matter and the remaining four teams are laden with experience that has paid off up to this point.
An additional point to think about is this: what if the talent gap among conferences is getting closer? I certainly think it is. For all the hype that the Big 12, SEC, and Big Ten conferences got this season, none have a representative in this year's Final Four. That was not on my bingo card. Upsets are becoming more commonplace and I'm here for ALL the madness.
There's so much more to talk about but without further ado...(drumroll please)...ON TO THE GAMES!
FINAL FOUR PREDICTIONS
#9 Florida Atlantic Owls (35-3) [Conference USA] vs #5 San Diego State Aztecs (31-6) [Mountain West]
Mid-Majors STAND UP. These squads may be considered a "cinderella" in the eyes of the average viewer but don't tell that to these programs. FAU has had a dream season. Ranked for the first time in program history, the Owls currently sport the best record among Final Four teams since 2018. If you remember, that is when Virginia won the National Championship. FAU will get a mini-UVA clone in the San Diego State Aztecs. SDSU has been the best Mountain West team for the last couple of seasons and has finally broken through to the Final Four. Led by a tenacious defense, they never let a game get out of reach and can wear teams down over the course of a game.
I've been very impressed with the Aztecs ability to shut down elite offenses. Alabama and Creighton were shut down against San Diego State. That means this should be a runaway match, right? Not exactly...
FAU has shown the ability to win in a variety of ways. When the Owls fall behind in a game, nothing seems to deter them. They defeated a defensive-minded team in #4 Tennessee that bullies you for 40 minutes. They defeated an offensive-minded team like #3 Kansas State, overcoming guard Markquis Nowell's historic heroics. They've also won in the final seconds, defeating #8 Memphis on a last-second layup. 35 wins this season isn't an accident. The Owls are for real. They were under-seeded as a 9 seed and now they look to make history and become the first 9 seed to win the National Championship.
I'm very torn on who to pick here. San Diego State's defense will make this game ugly but Florida Atlantic's offense seems to be more opportunistic. My heart says FAU but my head says SDSU. Give me the Butch Dutcher led Aztecs to the National Championship game. Who would've thunk it?
San Diego State 71, Florida Atlantic 67
Last year, Miami fell just short in the Elite Eight to the eventual National Champion Kansas Jayhawks. This year, they found themselves staring at the same fate until a miraculous 13 point second-half comeback propelled the Hurricanes to their first Final Four in program history. For UConn, they were upset in the first round of last year's tournament to New Mexico State before their run to the Final Four this season.
The Canes are lead by extremely gifted guard play. Isaiah Wong, Nijel Pack, and Jordan Miller all averaging at least 13.8 PPG. In fact, it was Miller who was perfect against the Longhorns (27 points) on Sunday night, shooting 7-7 from the field and 13-13 from the line. They'll need another superhuman performance from him if they hope to keep up with the Huskies potent offense. UConn has beaten their tournament opponents by 15+ points in each game. Will that happen against the potent Canes offense?
UConn is scary because they can score basically "at will" while also defending at a high rate. Against Gonzaga, who was playing their best basketball of the season, they made mincemeat out of Drew Timme and company. A 28 point blowout means that Miami must score early and often. If Miami plays like they did against Houston and Texas, they have a shot. UConn's Jordan Hawkins (avg. 16.3 PPG) has been clicking at all cylinders, scoring 20+ points in his last two games. The matchup between him and Miami's guards will be huge and the winner of that matchup will determine the winner of the game.
This contest might turn out to be one of the best Final Four matchups we've ever witnessed. It's hard to beat UNC-Duke from 2022 but this one has blockbuster written all over it. Miami and UConn have been stellar in this tournament. I'd say they're the two best teams left standing and it's a shame that one of them has to go home. In a game that could go either way, I'm projecting the Huskies to edge out the Hurricanes and advance to Monday Night.
UConn 94, Miami 90 (OT)
National Championship Prediction: UConn over San Diego State
This contest won't be pretty but the Huskies offense is too elite for anyone to stop. While the Aztecs will keep it close in the first half and try to wear down forward Adama Sanogo in the paint. However, the second half will see a familiar scene. UConn will pull away and win their fifth championship in program history.
UConn 71, San Diego State 60
National Champions: UConn Huskies [5th Championship]
May the best team win and enjoy the Final Four everybody!
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