1 SEED: Virginia Cavaliers (29-3)
What’s new? It’s the Hoos. The Cavs are back as the number one overall seed in College Basketball. Head Coach Tony Bennett has done an outstanding job with this team and his squad will look for vengeance as they try and erase the heartbreak of last years embarrassing loss to 16 seed UMBC in round one.
Strength: Lock down defense
Weakness: Offensive droughts
This is easily the most complete team in College Basketball. The only thing that can stop UVA is for a team to go off from the perimeter to have a chance. Keep it close in the final minutes like Duke, UNC, and NC State have in ACC play and get into the heads of Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome, and Jack Salt as the pressure of past failures mounts.
Ceiling: National Champions
Floor: Sweet Sixteen
PROJECTED FINISH: Elite 8
The historic loss to UMBC will fuel Virginia this year. I originally said I’ll NEVER pick UVA to go far in the tournament until they prove me wrong. Well, I’m taking the bait again. What could go wrong...
Defining Games:
UVA def UNC 69-61
A back and forth battle in Chapel Hill was a two point game with two minutes to play. Then, Kyle Guy (20 points) hit two clutch threes on back to back possessions to seal the contest which would ultimately be a deciding game in the ACC.
Duke def UVA 81-71
The only team that UVA has lost to this season is the Duke Blue Devils. They had a second crack at them and couldn’t deliver. This was a testament to the great shooting from the perimeter, assailing the arc fourteen times in route to a convincing ten point win. Duke created a formula to beat UVA. Get a lead early and then force the Cavaliers to shoot and get back into it. They kept it interesting but it was not to be.
UVA def Virginia Tech 64-58
This one was for bragging rights in the Commonwealth. Virginia Tech kept it close throughout but ultimately Virginia flexed their muscle and showed why they may be the best team in the ACC. Holding a 3pt heavy team like VT to just 3 for 27 is outstanding.
1 SEED: North Carolina Tar Heels (27-6)
The Heels are back as a number one seed and look to be a top three contender to win it all once again. Led by freshman phenom Coby White and a trio of seniors in Luke Maye, Cameron Johnson, and Kenny Williams, Carolina is in position to make another title run.
Strength: Rebounding (2nd in the country for defensive rebounding; 16th in offensive)
Weakness: 3pt defense
Ceiling: National Champions
Floor: Round of 32
PROJECTED FINISH: National Champions
Defining Games:
UNC def Gonzaga 103-90
The Tar Heels grabbed their first signature win of the season with a statement over Mark Few’s Bulldogs. Cameron Johnson arguably had his best game of the year hitting six threes and adding 25 points.
Louisville def UNC 83-62
Throw out the tape! UNC was absolutely waxed from start to finish in this one. Coby White had just four points and the leading scorer was Kenny Williams with just 12 points. It made many question if the Heels could even compete for a title. It was the worst home loss under head coach Roy Williams which is saying a ton for such a successful program.
UNC def Duke 88-72
Around 30 seconds into this rivalry matchup, the projected number one overall pick in the NBA Draft, Zion Williamson, slipped as his shoe ripped through the sole as he suffered a sprained knee. Once this happened, North Carolina never looked back. They led as much as 22 points in the second half and dominated this matchup at Cameron Indoor in route to part one of a regular season sweep of the Blue Devils.
1 SEED: Duke Blue Devils (29-5)
It’s the champions of the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Blue Devils have once again managed to grab a one seed for March Madness and look primed for a championship run. Duke cooled off a bit to finish the regular season but there’s no doubt that once Zion Williamson came to play, this team may be the country's best.
Ceiling: National Champions
Floor: Sweet Sixteen
PROJECTED FINISH: National Championship game loss
Defining Games:
Duke def Florida State 80-78
In one of the classic games of the ACC all season long, Zion Williamson got poked in the eye in the first half and had to sit for the remainder of the contest. However, in a seesaw type of game and Florida State up one point with three seconds to play, Cam Reddish knocked down a wide open three with 0.8 remaining to steal an important game on the road.
Duke def UVA 72-70
In a raucous environment, Duke was able to pull away late and hand UVA their first loss of the year. The way things are shaping up, we could be in for UVA vs Duke final if both teams live up their potential.
UNC def Duke 88-72
The game that could change the entire projection of Duke’s season. Once seen as a surefire number one seed, Zion’s knee injury forced Duke to adapt. They looked like an average team after this point, losing to VT, UNC again, and almost losing to ACC bottomfeeder Wake Forest at home on Senior Night. If Zion can dominate in the tournament and lead Duke to a title, all will be forgotten. If not, the ultimate “what if” will arise for years to come.
4 SEED: Florida State Seminoles (27-7)
Strengths: Balanced team
Weaknesses: Turnovers (T-225th in Division 1); High rate of fouls (avg of 19.4 per game)
Ceiling: Final Four
Floor: Round of 32
PROJECTED FINISH: Final Four loss
Defining Games:
Florida State def Purdue 73-72
Florida State had a big lead at the half only to see it falter away. I was impressed that they were able to keep their composure as Trent Forrest hit a go ahead floater with five seconds left to lift the Seminoles past the Boilermakers.
Duke def Florida State 80-78
Not only was it a backbreaking loss at the buzzer in front of the home fans but it also may have been the catalyst of three consecutive losses to put some doubt in the Noles. However, after a players only meeting following their January 20th loss to Boston College, FSU won 14 of 16 to head into their 4 vs 13 matchup vs Vermont.
Florida State def Louisville 80-75 (OT)
It was a rollercoaster, high flying affair that put the ACC on notice. Mfiondu Kabengele who came up big in a fantastic game, scoring 22 points and adding seven rebounds.
4 SEED: Virginia Tech Hokies (24-8)
No doubt about it, Virginia Tech is for real. Despite an injury to Justin Robinson for a large part of ACC play, the Hokies still managed to keep things steady. I like the Hokies to make a run to at least the Sweet Sixteen.
Strength: Three-point shooting
Weakness: Rebounding last in ACC for defensive rebounding; 13th in offensive rebounding)
Tech leads the ACC in three-pointers made, averaging about 10 per game. We know the old adage: “Live by the three, die by the three.” When it falls, they look like a Final Four type team, however if they run into a solid defensive team, it could spell trouble in crunch time for the Hokies. If VT is to make a deep run in this tournament, they will need guard Justin Robinson back at full strength. They are a MUCH scarier team with him on the floor. We saw his dominance show in a three point barrage against Syracuse in January, hitting a Hokie record 9 three-pointer field goals.
Ceiling: Elite 8
Floor: Round of 32
PROJECTED FINISH: Sweet Sixteen
Defining Games:
Virginia Tech def Purdue 89-83
Ranked 15th in the Preseason AP Top 25 poll, Virginia Tech started the season with high expectations. They currently sit at 16th. Pretty steady despite injuries. This game against Purdue was their first big contest to show if they were for real. They certainly took over in the second half after being down eight at the half. The trio of Ahmed Hill, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Justin Robinson had at least 23 points each to outscore the Boilermakers by 14 in the final twenty to ignite their best season in 23 years.
Clemson def Virginia Tech 59-51
This is a game with J-Rob where the Hokies would’ve cruised. However, Clemson won’t complain about the result. The Hokies had their second lowest scoring output of the season and just looked out of sync on the road. They shot a horrendous 28.3% from the field as the Tigers defense shut down Hill and Alexander-Walker. It showed that when the threes aren’t falling, this team can be had.
Virginia Tech def Duke 77-72
Virginia Tech showed some serious grit against a top five team at the Cassell. Tied at 70 with 90 seconds left, the Hokies went on a 7-2 run to finish the deal and get their biggest win of the season. Despite some inconsistencies without their star player, VT demonstrated poise in a big spot and gave themselves major confidence headed into the NCAA Tournament.
7 SEED: Louisville Cardinals (20-13)
It has been a tale of two halves for the Cardinals. In the month of January, they had won seven out of eight with the sole loss coming @ Pittsburgh in overtime. Now the tide has turned as Louisville finished the regular season losing six of eight contests, including one to Boston College. However, this team has a trio of wins that rival some of the best in the country, beating Michigan State, UNC, and Virginia Tech. They are capable of beating top competition but they need to put it together for a full forty minutes. Leading scorer Jordan Nwora is having a fantastic season, shooting 45% from the field and 37% from three. Can the consistency show up under the big lights of March?
Strengths: Defense
Weaknesses: Closing out games
Louisville’s weakness is something that will get you beat in the tournament. This isn’t just a one-time thing either. Blowing a 23 point lead against Duke was rough. They almost inexplicably lost a seven point lead with 17 seconds left against Clemson the following week. They held onto the win by one point but there was absolutely no need for drama late. If they aren’t careful, their next blown lead could be their last.
Ceiling: Sweet Sixteen
Floor: Round of 64
PROJECTED FINISH: Round of 32
Defining Games:
Louisville def UNC 83-62
This was a game where Louisville could do no wrong. A dominating performance for a full forty minutes. UNC looked like a mid major the way the Cardinals came and dominated in Chapel Hill.
Duke def Louisville 71-69
After this game, Louisville just hasn’t been the same. They blew a 22 point lead and ultimately have lost six of nine games since this point. If they won this game like they should’ve, their season could’ve escalated into a potential elite team.
Louisville def Virginia Tech 72-64
A convincing road win. They never trailed in this contest as Louisville drained 13 three-pointers. Fun fact: this was the 15th straight time that the Cardinals knocked off the Hokies.
8 SEED: Syracuse Orange (20-13)
Can Jim Boeheim’s team pull off another March run? The Cuse certainly like living life on the edge. This year, they weren’t sweating too much about Selection Sunday like in years past. I feel like Syracuse should lose early but every year, they continue to exceed expectations in the tournament.
Strength: Winning when it matters; zone defense
Weakness: Scoring consistency
Ceiling: Sweet Sixteen
Floor: Round of 64
PROJECTED FINISH: Sweet Sixteen
Defining Games:
Old Dominion def Syracuse 68-62
One of Syracuse’s worst losses of the year. I realize that ODU is a tournament team but any team in the ACC, especially a second weekend contending team like Syracuse should not lose to the Monarchs at the Carrier Dome. It’s simply unacceptable.
Syracuse def Duke 95-91 (OT)
Although Cam Reddish and Tre Jones missed this game, it showed that Syracuse is capable of going toe to toe with the best in the nation. Duke shot a horrific 9 for 43 from downtown (3pt) and still managed to get the game to overtime. However, the Orange buckled down and held on at Cameron Indoor in a huge upset.
Syracuse def Louisville 69-49
A masterful performance for the Orange showed the ultimate package of who this team can be. Holding the Cardinals to 26% shooting was absolutely incredible. Could we see a repeat performance in the tournament?
Why they missed the NCAA tournament:
NC State Wolfpack (22-11); 2 Seed in NIT
Strength: Offensive rebounding
Weakness: Inconsistency on both sides of the ball; playing to the level of their competition
It was a tough road for NC State as their strength of schedule and losses to teams like Georgia Tech and Wake Forest was enough to hold them from the Field of 68. Their out-of-conference schedule ranked dead last in the NCAA. The new NET rankings put the Wolfpack inside the 30s which apparently is what the committee valued significantly in determining this year’s field. However, in this case, the negatives simply outweighed the positives in a very competitive bubble.
Defining Games:
NC State def Auburn 78-71
NC State needed a signature win and they were able to grab it in this early season tilt against Auburn in a close matchup.
Virginia Tech def NC State 47-24
Easily the worst game that NC State has played in the shot clock era. The 24 points scored by the Wolfpack are the lowest output by a ranked team since 1985 when the era began. However, this game is an anomaly and shouldn’t be expected to show up again under the coaching of HC Kevin Keatts.
NC State def Clemson 59-58
Their tournament hopes had seemingly slipped away until a huge comeback engineered by Markell Johnson was the deciding factor in State’s potentially season saving comeback. Unfortunately, the selection committee decided that State’s SOS and lack of quality wins was the deciding factor.
Clemson Tigers (19-13); 2 Seed in NIT
Strength: Tenacious defense
Weakness: Scoring consistency; Winning close games
The Tigers inability to win close games has haunted them all season long and what ultimately cost them a trip back to the tournament. They had golden opportunities against NC State (2X), Miami, Louisville, and UNC and failed to turn them into wins. 1-10 in Quadrant 1 wins won’t get it done for Clemson. A few plays one way or another would’ve catapulted them easily over the bubble. Instead, it is the classic “what if” scenario.
Defining Games:
Clemson def Virginia Tech 59-51
The reason that the Tigers had been on the bubble all season long was because of the lack of “Quadrant 1” victories. This was Clemson’s best complete win of the season against a quality opponent. An eight point win at Littlejohn over a top 25 team was huge for their resume at the time against other competing bubble teams.
NC State def Clemson 69-67 & NC State def Clemson 59-58
A game that encapsulated Clemson basketball in a nutshell. NC State went on a 8-0 in the last 19 seconds as the best free throw shooter, Marquise Reed, missed four key free throws in that span as NC State’s Braxton Beverly hit the buzzer-beating three to steal one and leave Brad Brownell’s team scratching their heads after letting an important game slip away.
In the ACC Tournament, Clemson faltered as they went over 10 minutes without a FG after being up as many as 18 in the first half. NC State slowly chipped away and ultimately gritted out a one point win. These two games pretty much summarized why the Tigers are playing in the NIT instead of the tournament. Lack of execution in key moments.
Clemson def Notre Dame 64-62
Some would argue that Clemson’s win over Syracuse meant more. However, if the former had managed to blow this game against lowly Notre Dame, it wouldn’t have meant much. With under four minutes to play, the Tigers found themselves down four with their season on the brink. That being said, the senior Marcquise Reed came up big down the stretch to keep the season alive.
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