WACO, TX (December 11th, 2024)- Do you smell that? It's the smell of a fresh-new 12 team playoff bracket. If you're a fan of sitting on your couch during the holidays, baking cookies, opening gifts and watching grown men pass a leather ball in freezing cold temps (or a dome), you're in the right place. More teams = more chaos.
Championship Week delivered with EPIC outcomes in the SEC, Big Ten, and ACC title games. In Indianapolis, top five teams in Oregon and Penn State clashed in an offensive shootout with the Ducks remaining undefeated by the score of 45-37. In the SEC, Georgia overcame an injury to quarterback Carson Beck right before halftime and vanquished Texas in overtime 22-19. Finally, Clemson earned the final spot in the playoff after freshman kicker Nolan Hauser kicked an ice-cold 56 yard field goal to win it at the buzzer. Despite SMU erasing a 17 point fourth-quarter deficit to tie the game, there was a big debate of who should get in the playoff? SMU or another SEC foe?
Should SMU get the final spot, despite not having a single ranked win but going undefeated in conference play and no bad losses? Or should Alabama, with a strong strength-of-schedule, sneak into the playoff despite three losses on the year including those to 6-6 Vanderbilt and Oklahoma. There were other small arguments for the likes of Miami, South Carolina, and Ole Miss but none that warranted a serious discussion. In the end, the committee decided to not punish SMU for having to play in a conference championship whereas the other four potential candidates didn't and award them a spot in the CFP.
Now that the bracket is finally settled after a hard-fought season, it's time to see who will emerge victorious and create a legacy that will last a lifetime.
First Round
The new 12-team playoff format officially kicks off on a Friday night in South Bend, Indiana as two in-state foes hit the gridiron in a matchup that NO ONE saw coming at the beginning of the year.
For Notre Dame, this college football powerhouse was expected to be in contention for a championship. After inexplicably stubbing their toe against Northern Illinois in arguably the biggest upset of the 2024 season, the Fighting Irish haven't lost since that hiccup. For Indiana, they've been quite the Cinderella story. Picked to finish 16th in the preseason Big Ten poll, head coach Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers have defied all expectations and claimed their first double-digit win season in program history.
If you like points, there's a chance we could see an offensive explosion. The Hoosiers (43.3 PPG) and Fighting Irish (39.8 PPG) rank #2 and #3 respectively in the country in total points per game (PPG). Statistically, the defenses hold their own as well. Both teams rank in the top 6 in total points allowed. Something's gotta give, right?
There is a caveat. Against better defensive teams, Indiana's high-flying offense has bogged down, scoring just 15 against Ohio State and 20 against Michigan. I'm a bit concerned that this may happen again on a blistery road game against arguably the toughest team they've played all year. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has scored at least 35 points in their last five contests. The Irish should win at home and cover the spread to earn a date with Georgia.
The pick: Fighting Irish 34, Hoosiers 23
The committee spared Southern Methodist from an off-season of "what if's" and now they'll get a chance to prove they truly belong in the field with a trip to Happy Valley against the vaunted Nittany Lions.
The Mustangs have lost both their games by three points a piece against current AP Top-25 teams (BYU and Clemson) which raises concerns if they can emerge victorious against the top dogs in college football. Penn State also has similar concerns themselves, as they've fought hard against Oregon and Ohio State but haven't been able to claim that breakthrough win yet. Beating SMU would be their most impressive win thus far.
On offense, Penn State will look to star tight end Tyler Warren who is having a breakout season as a senior. His 88 receptions for 1,062 yards and six touchdowns leads the nation among Power Four tight ends. He'll be a valuable safety blanket in short yardage and red-zone situations for quarterback Drew Allar. For SMU, they've been consistent, scoring at least four touchdowns in all but one game this season. A potent and efficient rushing attack led by Brashard Smith will be of the essence for victory.
While either team is fully capable of advancing, I trust Penn State's defense much more than I do SMUs. SMU is legit but the Nittany Lions have faced elite competition in the Big Ten whereas the Mustangs have beaten up on subpar ACC squads. There is no simulation that will get them ready for what they'll face in deafening environment. In a close battle, I'm running with Penn State to win a hard-fought battle
The pick: Nittany Lions 31, Mustangs 28
March Madness is known for the classic 12 over 5 upset. Could we see one occur in the first of the CFP era? I'm warming up to the idea. Which Texas team will show up? It's anyone's guess.
The Horns' offense has been plagued with inconsistency in the last month of the season, as Texas has rode the back of their defense to escape with close wins down the stretch. Luckily for them, Clemson may be in even worse shape. Quarterback Cade Klubnik has made significant strides in Year Three but the Tigers have struggled to put up points in the second half of games and, likewise, have relied on their defense to keep them afloat.
I expect this contest to be a defensive slog with a key turnover being the difference in this one. Dabo Swinney's Tigers know how to win in the playoff so it won't be easy. Texas was my pick at the beginning of the season to make the National Championship game and I can't abandon them quite yet. The Longhorns use their home-field advantage to escape by the hair of their chin and head into the second round off a do-or-die field goal by kicker Bert Auburn.
The pick: Texas 22, Clemson 20
Four losses in a row to the hated Michigan Wolverines. The only way the Buckeye faithful are going to forgive head coach Ryan Day is by winning a national championship. The path to redemption is arguably the toughest in the bracket as they get a date with Tennessee to kick things off. And if he loses a home playoff game...oh boy.
The biggest X-Factor is Vols' quarterback Nico Iamaleava. When he's on fire, Tennessee has what it takes to win a National Championship. His subpar performances usually occur due to bad offensive line play and that is exactly what the Buckeyes will attempt to exploit. Against an amped Ohio State defense with 35 sacks on the season, he'll need to get the ball out QUICK! I'm not totally sold on the Buckeyes but I don't see them losing two consecutive games, especially at home in a must-win game. I expect a defensive first half before Ohio State gets a pair of touchdowns from their star receiver Emeka Egbuka in the second half to wear out Tennessee.
The pick: Ohio State 29, Tennessee 21
Quarterfinals
#3 Boise State Broncos [12-1] vs #6 Penn State Nittany Lions [12-2] | Fiesta Bowl, Dec. 31st, 7:30pm ET]
Can Boise State generate some more Fiesta Bowl magic in Arizona? We all are familiar about their iconic victory against the former Big 12 Champion Oklahoma Sooners in 2007. This Boise squad isn't a paper tiger by any means. Against the top-seeded Ducks, Boise State went to Eugene and nearly took down Oregon, falling short by just three points 38-35.
In order for the Broncos to win, it's no secret that superstar running back Ashton Jeanty is going to have to carry (pun fully intended) this team to victory. The best running back in college football is just 131 rush yards short of taking down Barry Sanders' remarkable record of 2,628 yards. Jeanty has 30 total touchdowns and has carried the rock 344 times this year. If that doesn't say "Heisman Trophy Winner," I don't know what qualifies (no offense to the phenom that is Travis Hunter).
Penn State's run defense ranks 11th in the nation so Jeanty will have to earn every yard. He'll break a few runs but it won't be enough in the end. I wouldn't see surprised to see an upset here but at the end of the day, gimme the Nittany Lions advancing into the semifinals.
The pick: Penn State 34, Boise State 31
The rematch of this blockbuster Big Ten mid-season clash is here. Oregon won a squeaker at home 32-31 but on a neutral site, could that perhaps turn the tide in Ohio State's favor?
The Buckeyes will have to rely on their two-headed rushing attack featuring TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins to control the clock and keep Oregon's electrifying offense off the field. Unfortunately, I just don't trust Ryan Day in big games. He is 2-4 in bowl games and 2-4 against Michigan in his head coaching career. Once again, I expect this to come down to the wire. Once again, I expect Oregon to win a narrow contest.
The pick: Oregon 31, Ohio State 27
#2 Georgia Bulldogs [11-2] vs #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish [12-1] | [Sugar Bowl, Jan. 1st, 8:45pm ET]
I'll give them this: they find a way to win. Georgia hasn't been the dominant team that they've been the last three seasons. They've lost to Alabama and Ole Miss, which there's no shame in that. However, they've had some close calls against teams they should handle such as Georgia Tech, Kentucky, and even lowly Mississippi State. If they start slow or have a poor offensive showing in the Sugar Bowl, they likely will be going home.
Georgia's backup quarterback Gunner Stockton made enough plays to get Georgia past Texas in the SEC Championship Game. However, his performance will have to improve drastically for the Bulldogs to get past Notre Dame. Carson Beck looks to be out for the season which likely will end any hopes of the Bulldogs getting to the top of the college football mountain. The championship pedigree could propel them into the semis but all signs point to Notre Dame being the pick here.
The pick: Notre Dame 27, Georgia 17
Is Arizona State the hottest team in the country? Outside of Oregon, you'd have a case. After going 3-9 in back-to-back seasons, the Sun Devils were picked to finish LAST in the Big 12 preseason poll. Kenny Dillingham has done a superb job in doing the unthinkable and winning the conference.
Texas has one of the most physical front sevens in college football and points could come at a premium for Arizona State. However, I believe the Sun Devils have a physicality equalizer. Running back Cam Skattebo (1,568 yards, 19 TDs) won't win Heisman but he's certainly playing like one. Here's my one upset special of the bracket. The Longhorns offense sputters again and this time, it's costly.
The pick: Arizona State 26, Texas 23
Semifinals
#6 Penn State Nittany Lions [13-2] vs #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish [13-1] | [Cotton Bowl; Jan. 10th, 7:30pm ET]
Originally, I had Penn State winning this matchup but then I remembered James Franklin's infamous record. He has struggled against the best-of-the-best, going just 3-18 against top ten teams in his career. That doesn't mean I think the Nittany Lions will play a poor game though. It'll be a battle that will result in the first overtime matchup of the 2024 playoff. I expect fireworks and nothing less than an instant classic. A missed two-point conversion for the Nittany Lions will lead to instant heartbreak as Marcus Freeman leads his Irish to Atlanta for the natty.
The pick: Notre Dame 40, Penn State 38 (3OT)
If this prediction plays out, making it to the semis is already a dream season for Arizona State. Unfortunately, they run into a buzzsaw that is Dillon Gabriel and the Oregon Ducks. There's not much I need to say here. The former Pac-12 matchup (RIP the Conference of Champions) will end in a massive blowout. The magic will run out for the Sun Devils bounce-back season as the Ducks waddle their way into the championship
game.
The pick: Oregon 41, Arizona State 17
National Championship- Atlanta
Who's walking away with the hardware? The Fighting Irish are looking to win their twelfth claimed national championship and first since 1988. Meanwhile, the Ducks have never captured college football's most prestigious prize and are looking to change that this season.
When we look at comparing offenses, there are two different approaches. Notre Dame's passing attack under Duke transfer Riley Leonard isn't as dynamic but it still gets the job done. The Irish get their bread and butter on the ground as they rank 11th in the nation in total team rushing yards. Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Prince, and Leonard himself are the straws that stir the drink, eclipsing over 2,300 rush yards between this trio.
For Oregon, their passing attack is much more lethal. Dillon Gabriel has over 3,500 yards passing and 28 TDs on the year. He's been sensational and has kept the ball out of harm's way, throwing just six interceptions. The Ducks run the ball too, ranking in the top 40 in rush yards per game (avg. 177 YPG).
Defensively, Notre Dame seems to have the edge. The Irish rank in the top 10 in a variety of areas including total takeaways (28), blocked kicks (6), third down defense (30.6%), defensive touchdowns (6), and total scoring defense (13.6 PPG). Oregon does rank highly in a crucial stat and that's getting to the quarterback. With 40 sacks on the season, the Ducks are hoping their pass rush can be the difference-maker.
I believe this game is truly a toss-up. When it's all said and done, there's one team that hasn't lost all year and they'll prove their mettle one last time. Run from it, hide from it. Destiny still arrives. The Oregon Ducks will find a way to win their first National Championship in school history.
The pick: Oregon 34, Notre Dame 31
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