(August 5th, 2021)- It was only a year ago when the start of the NFL season was not a certainty. Although the 2020 preseason was cancelled, the regular season fortunately started on time. In the craziest season in NFL history, we shouldn't be surprised that the Lombardi Trophy ended up in the hands of Tom Brady once again. Pro tip: Never bet against Tom Brady.
In 2021, COVID is still lingering but every stadium is back to 100% capacity which will undoubtedly improve the environment and fan experience. In addition, there are many questions that we are looking forward to being answered in a few short weeks. Which rookie quarterback will perform the best? Can the Buccaneers repeat? Who will be the surprise team of 2021? It's gonna be fun.
So without further ado, sit back and relax because here are my "2021 Ultimate NFL Predictions."
Preseason Team Tiers Rankings
Cream of the Crop
Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Super Bowl Contenders
Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams, Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, Seattle Seahawks
Playoff Contenders
Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Chargers, Washington Football Team, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings
The Fringe
Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, Las Vegas Raiders, New York Giants, Cincinnati Bengals
Rebuilding/Try again next year
New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles
Team-by-Team Analysis
*Confidence is how sure I am of that respective team making the playoffs*
AFC
1 SEED: Kansas City Chiefs- PROJECTED RECORD: 14-3; Confidence: 99%
BEST CASE: 17-0; WORST CASE: 12-5; Team MVP: Patrick Mahomes
It's a scary thought that the Chiefs continue to get better. In their Super Bowl 55 loss, a clear weakness was exposed by Tampa Bay's ferocious defense: the offensive line. What did KC do about that? A ton. They added guard Joe Thuney via free agency and traded for Orlando Brown, Jr. To cap it off, they added Oklahoma's Creed Humphrey who could start as well. The only negative about the Chiefs is defensive end Frank Clark, who faces up to three years in prison for possession of an assault weapon. Losing the 2x Pro Bowler would be a huge blow to their Super Bowl aspirations. Barring any serious injury to Patrick Mahomes, this team will easily be in the playoffs and should be a top seed in the AFC once again.
Biggest Win: Week 5 vs Buffalo
Most Surprising Loss: Week 6 @ Washington
2 SEED: Buffalo Bills- PROJECTED RECORD: 13-4; Confidence: 99%
BEST CASE: 15-2; WORST CASE: 11-6; Team MVP: Josh Allen
Almost everyone saw the immense potential of the Bills after their run to the postseason in 2019. When Tom Brady left New England, there was almost a feel of "the changing of the guard" in the AFC East. It was Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs who helped elevate this team to new heights. Both eclipsed career highs across the board, propelling Buffalo to their first playoff win since 1995.
Although they fell to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship, they should be a favorite to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. For the Bills to take the next step, I believe they'll need to see more production in their rushing attack. If Devin Singletary or Zack Moss can become more consistent between the tackles and in the passing game, we may need to say a prayer for every foldable table within a few hundred miles of the stadium for the ensuing celebrations to come and the destruction to follow for the franchise's first Lombardi.
Biggest Win: Week 6 @ Tennessee
Most Surprising Loss: Week 12 @ New Orleans
3 SEED: Cleveland Browns- PROJECTED RECORD: 12-5; Confidence: 85%
BEST CASE: 14-3; WORST CASE: 9-8; Team MVP: Nick Chubb
Cleveland FINALLY proved everyone wrong in 2020 by making the postseason for the first time since 2002. Not only that, but they won a playoff game! What will they do for an encore? General Manager Andrew Berry has done a phenomenal job of building this roster that looks to be a threat for years to come. For the Browns to make a deep playoff run this season, they will need Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to continue to EAT in the backfield. Baker Mayfield looks to be the franchise QB this team has been searching for as his poise and confidence has shifted a team that went 0-16 in 2017 to a possible Super Bowl contender. The division is a tough one with the Ravens, veteran Steelers, and a young Bengals team. However, the Dawg Pound has A LOT to look forward to this season and expectations are as high as they've been in the 21st Century.
Biggest Win: Week 14 vs Baltimore
Most Surprising Loss: Week 9 @ Cincinnati
4 SEED: Tennessee Titans- PROJECTED RECORD: 11-6; Confidence: 85%
BEST CASE: 14-3; WORST CASE: 9-8; Team MVP: Derrick Henry
Tennessee is a MASSIVE team. Their roster seems to fit the personality of their coach Mike Vrabel. Titans fans had to make room as Derrick Henry joined Chris Johnson aka CJ2K as the only two running backs to run for 2,000 yards in a season. Now, longtime Falcon Julio Jones joins A.J. Brown to form an elite duo in the passing game. The offense should be top 10 but the defense leaves much to be desired. They were in the bottom five (28th) in total yards as the team saw regressions from Kevin Byard and Rashaan Evans. The same core from 2020 remains on defense which will likely hold them back from reaching elite status. However, I wouldn't be shocked to see them get back to the AFC Championship game as the did in 2019.
Biggest Win: Week 3 vs Indianapolis
Most Surprising Loss: Week 15 @ Pittsburgh
5 SEED: Baltimore Ravens- PROJECTED RECORD: 11-6; Confidence: 80%
BEST CASE: 14-3; WORST CASE: 9-8; Team MVP: Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson won a playoff game last season and now he looks to take the next step and make a run to the Super Bowl. It won't be easy in the AFC but only a year removed from winning the MVP, anything is possible. Baltimore didn't do anything flashy in the offseason but they did add guard Kevin Zeitler on a cheap free agent deal and then drafted sure-handed receiver Rashod Bateman from Minnesota to give Jackson another weapon on the outside. J.K. Dobbins will likely be given the keys to the backfield after phasing out Mark Ingram II in the rotation. The Ravens are a playoff lock for me but the next test is finding a way to beat the Bills and Chiefs.
Biggest Win: Week 17 vs LA Rams
Most Surprising Loss: Week 16 @ Cincinnati
6 SEED: New England Patriots- PROJECTED RECORD: 10-7; Confidence: 55%
BEST CASE: 11-6; WORST CASE: 6-11; Team MVP: Cam Newton
The fact that New England won seven games with the amount of opt-outs and the roster they had constructed was kinda remarkable. This season is set up for Cam Newton to succeed. If he doesn't, Mac Jones will be waiting in the shadows to take his spot. Tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry are primed to be a great 1-2 punch in the passing game. However, the Patriots will likely heavily depend on their stable of backs (Damien Harris, James White, Sony Michel, and rookie Rhamondre Stevenson). Don't expect the Pats to win shootouts this season but to grind out wins by going old school. Power rushing O and a tenacious D. It won't be easy for the Patriots to get back in the playoffs with the likes of Miami, Pittsburgh, LA Chargers, and more but I expect nine or ten wins in a bounce-back season.
Biggest Win: Week 12 vs Tennessee
Most Surprising Loss: Week 8 @ LA Chargers
7 SEED: Miami Dolphins- PROJECTED RECORD: 10-7 Confidence: 50%
BEST CASE: 11-6; WORST CASE: 7-10; Team MVP: Tua Tagovailoa
I initially had the Colts in the seventh spot but after the injury bug hit, I'm going to roll with this young Miami squad instead. Rookie Jaylen Waddle will instantly become the number one option at receiver and running back Myles Gaskin has potential to break out if the Dolphins give him a chance to carry the load. A negative is that star cornerback Xavien Howard is disgruntled and requested a trade in late-July. Outside of Howard, the defense doesn't have a lot of big names but they play well together and should continue to grow in year three under Brian Flores. The obvious X-Factor is their second-year quarterback. Tua Tagovailoa may have been prematurely put into the starting lineup last year as he was pedestrian at times. With a year under his belt, Tua just has to be above average for Miami to win football games.
Biggest Win: Week 4 vs Indianapolis
Most Surprising Loss: Week 11 @ NY Jets
Bubble (any of these squads could make it in the field and I wouldn’t be surprised)
8 SEED: Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8)- Many are quick to write off Big Ben and Pittsburgh but I don't see them falling off too much. Even with quarterbacks Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges, this team went 8-8 in 2019. Mike Tomlin always has his squad ready to play and the offense should be more potent on the ground with rookie running back Najee Harris in the fold. The Steelers had the worst rushing attack in 2020 which really caught up with them towards the end of the season. The one concerning thing is their offensive line losing Villanueva, DeCastro, and Pouncey. That could make or break their season if the new guys can't adequately produce results.
9 SEED: Indianapolis Colts (9-8)- In what is shaping up to be a competitive AFC Wild Card race, the Colts defense could be what sets them apart above the rest of the contenders. Carson Wentz was sacked FIFTY times in 2020, good for highest in the league. Obviously, he didn't play well but being constantly under pressure can make even Tom Brady look mediocre. Unfortunately, Wentz is already injured and All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson is as well. Despite this, the Colts should still grind out games to end up with a winning record. I'm most excited to see Jonathan Taylor in Year 2. Despite struggling early, the former Wisconsin Badger rushed for over 1,100 yards and 11 TDs on the ground. Ultimately, injuries may cost them a playoff spot but this is still a very good team.
10 SEED: Los Angeles Chargers (8-9)- I try not to brag but I will say that I was right about Justin Herbert. The 2020 Rookie of the Year amazed, throwing for over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. With a few adjustments to late-game execution, Los Angeles could find themselves as a serious contender sooner rather than later. Defensive end Joey Bosa, safety Derwin James, and now rookie tackle Rashawn Slater should be with the team for the next 5+ years as building blocks with Herbert. The AFC is a little too tough this season but fully expect the Chargers to be a playoff team with another year of seasoning.
11 SEED: Las Vegas Raiders (7-10)- Is Jon Gruden's seat getting a little warm? If the defense doesn't improve, that could be the case. The Raiders offense has been pretty solid with Derek Carr. Josh Jacobs and Henry Ruggs III provide a talented duo at running back and receiver respectively. It has been the defense that has let the team down in recent years. Since Derek Carr has taken over, Las Vegas/Oakland has not finished above 20th in the NFL in total defense. The Raiders have only made the playoffs once since 2003 and in that breakout 2016 season, the team led the league in takeaway/giveaway ratio. If the defense doesn't improve, Las Vegas can kiss their postseason hopes goodbye.
Others: (“rebuilding,” too many roster holes, or too inconsistent)
12 SEED: Cincinnati Bengals (7-10)- Cinci is my "surprise" team for 2021. I have them winning seven games but they'll be competitive in the majority of their games. Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd have potential to be the best trio of receivers in the league. On other note, a tough but necessary change was made when eight-time Pro Bowl DT Geno Atkins was cut by the team in March. The defense wasn't too great outside of Jessie Bates who continues to thrive. Meanwhile, Joe Burrow looked legit before his heartbreaking season-ending knee injury. If his knee fully recovers, the Bengals have potential to upset a couple of team that may not take them seriously.
13 SEED: Denver Broncos (6-11)- Drew Lock or Teddy B. Either way, this screams mediocrity. The Aaron Rodgers dream died and the Deshaun Watson one isn't too likely either at this stage in the offseason. The rushing attack with Melvin Gordon and rookie Javonte Williams could save the offense. Likewise, with Courtland Sutton coming back from a torn ACL. The defense is legit, now it's time for the offense to finally hold up their end of the bargain.
14 SEED: Jacksonville Jaguars (5-12)- There's new life in Jacksonville with Trevor Lawrence but expect growing pains in year one. To alleviate the pressure, expect a heavy dose of running backs James Robinson and Travis Etienne. It was shocking when Fournette was cut in favor of an undrafted running back from Illinois State. However, Robinson impressed, rushing for over 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns. The defense will hold them back from winning many games but the season should be a step in the right direction.
15 SEED: New York Jets (4-13)- The Jets might've had my favorite draft class. Quarterback Zach Wilson, receiver Elijah Moore, guard/tackle Alijah Vera-Tucker, and running back Michael Carter could be trouble for years to come. With Robert Saleh taking command, Gang Green should have a new mentality and some competence. Progress probably won't show up as a "W" on the schedule but there is a lot of potential for a new culture to turn this franchise around relatively quickly.
16 SEED: Houston Texans (2-15)- It really is sad to see how far this team has fallen. Two years ago, Houston was up 24-0 against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round. They ended up losing the game by 20 points. Now, quarterback Deshaun Watson may be in big trouble with the law and/or traded in the near future. Randall Cobb who recently got traded back to the Packers indirectly called the Texans a "prison" which is all you need to know about the team's prospects for 2021.
NFC
1 SEED: Los Angeles Rams- PROJECTED RECORD: 13-4; Confidence: 99%
BEST CASE: 16-1; WORST CASE: 12-5; Team MVP: Aaron Donald
The Rams made it to the divisional round in 2020 with mediocre quarterback play. With the addition of Matthew Stafford, Sean McVay and Co. are thinking Lombardi or Bust. While I do think this team will be a top three team in the league, it is concerning that Stafford has never won a playoff game in his career. The offense should be elite with Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp but after Cam Akers tore his achilles in the off-season, the rushing attack might not be on point. Darrell Henderson is a solid backup and will have a golden opportunity to lead the backfield. Having a stout defense led by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey should help give more opportunities for the offense to shine. With no first round draft picks until 2024, Los Angeles is going "all-in" to win it all.
Biggest Win: Week 3 vs Tampa Bay
Most Surprising Loss: Week 6 @ San Francisco
2 SEED: Tampa Bay Buccaneers- PROJECTED RECORD: 12-5; Confidence: 99%
BEST CASE: 17-0; WORST CASE: 12-5; Team MVP: Tom Brady
The Buccaneers aren't in the playoffs often but when they are, good things happen. It doesn't hurt having the best quarterback to play join your team. After winning the Super Bowl for the second time in franchise history, Tom Brady is looking for the championship repeat, a feat last accomplished by the Patriots in 2003 and 2004. Tampa Bay returns all 22 starters so team cohesion should be easy for this squad. Outside of Brady finally losing to father time, the Bucs will undoubtedly be the class of the NFC once again.
Biggest Win: Week 14 vs Buffalo
Most Surprising Loss: Week 10 @ Washington
3 SEED: Green Bay Packers- PROJECTED RECORD: 11-6; Confidence: 90%
BEST CASE: 14-3; WORST CASE: 9-8; Team MVP: Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers' last dance in Green Bay? After a drama-filled offseason, the 2020 NFL MVP is back for what looks to be his last season with the team following contract concessions. There's not much room for the Packers to improve outside of a championship run. They've been to back-to-back NFC Championships but can't seem to break through. I think it's a mentality thing with this team. They have an above average defense, a top ten running back, an MVP QB and arguably the best receiver in football. No excuses. The time is now to make a Super Bowl push. The Pack are the clear favorites in the NFC North and a double-digit win total should be expected. Resigning Aaron Jones, adding Amari Rodgers out of Clemson, and trading for Randall Cobb should help keep their star quarterback afloat for 2021.
Biggest Win: Week 16 vs Cleveland
Most Surprising Loss: Week 6 @ Chicago
4 SEED: Dallas Cowboys- PROJECTED RECORD: 8-9; Confidence: 55%
BEST CASE: 11-6; WORST CASE: 7-10; Team MVP: Dak Prescott
The NFC East is the division of parody as no team has won the division in back-to-back seasons since the Eagles did four straight times from 2001-2004. Based off of that logic alone and Dak Prescott coming back for Dallas, I think the Cowboys are in the driver's seat despite Washington's dominant defense that will have something to say. With a trio of solid receivers along with Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield, expect the 'Boys to make some noise in 2021. Dan Quinn was hired to fix their 28th ranked defense (2020). He'll have some new additions to work with in rookies Micah Parsons, Kelvin Joseph, Osa Odighizuwa, and former Colts' safety Malik Hooker. Dallas is a boom-or-bust team and although they won't quite "boom" due to their young defense, they'll do enough to get back to the playoffs.
Biggest Win: Week 16 vs Washington
Most Surprising Loss: Week 12 vs Las Vegas
5 SEED: Arizona Cardinals- PROJECTED RECORD: 10-7; Confidence: 55%
BEST CASE: 12-5; WORST CASE: 7-10; Team MVP: Kyler Murray
Is it a make or break season for head coach Kliff Kingsbury? With the additions of defensive end J.J. Watt and receiver A.J. Green in the offseason, it should be. The divisional games will be key as the Cardinals only went 2-4 in the NFC West in 2020. Kyler Murray took the next step in his development in his sophomore campaign and he should continue to flourish this season. Veteran cornerback Malcolm Butler comes in to help the secondary but the overall prospects of the defense may come down to their two young linebackers: Rookie Zaven Collins and second-year pro Isaiah Simmons. The latter didn't see the field too often but with a full offseason to study and practice, he should be much improved. If Arizona can make it out of this challenging division and into the postseason, consider it a major success for their future prospects as a contender.
Biggest Win: Week 14 vs LA Rams
Most Surprising Loss: Week 3 @ Jacksonville
6 SEED: San Francisco 49ers- PROJECTED RECORD: 10-7; Confidence: 60%
BEST CASE: 12-5; WORST CASE: 7-10; Team MVP: Fred Warner
The Niners suffered from the "super bowl hangover" but much of it had to do with an insane amount of injuries. At one point, over 20 players were dealing with one. Most notably, Nick Bosa, George Kittle, and Raheem Mostert missed large chunks of the season. Assuming their bad luck doesn't strike twice, San Fran should have a winning record regardless if Garoppolo or rookie Trey Lance is under center. If their draft was any indication, the 49ers will still be looking to run the football with multiple backs. In addition to Mostert, Jeff Wilson and free agent acqusition Wayne Gallman, they also added backs Trey Sermon and Elijah Mitchell. The formula is simple for the Niners: STAY HEALTHY, run the football, and get efficient QB play. Do that and the playoffs should be in sight.
Biggest Win: Week 10 vs LA Rams
Most Surprising Loss: Week 14 @ Cincinnati
7 SEED: Seattle Seahawks- PROJECTED RECORD: 10-7; Confidence: 70%
BEST CASE: 12-5; WORST CASE: 8-9; Team MVP: Russell Wilson
Yes, you read correctly. I have ALL FOUR NFC West teams making the postseason. If you still don't know why having a franchise QB is the most important position for a team to address, look no further than the situation that the Seahawks currently inherit. The defense is somewhat underwhelming and the offensive line has been subpar for years. Despite all that, they still have Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, Chris Carson, and Tyler Lockett on offense. That in itself is a playoff team. Is it a Super Bowl team? I doubt it. However, don't be surprised if the 'Hawks pull off an upset in the postseason if they get in. Due to tie-breakers, Seattle finishes as the seventh and final seed but they could easily finish fifth if they can win those key divisional games.
Biggest Win: Week 5 vs LA Rams
Most Surprising Loss: Week 13 vs San Francisco
Bubble (any of these squads could make it in the field and I wouldn’t be surprised)
8 SEED: Minnesota Vikings (9-8)- Rumors that the Vikings were prepared to trade up for Justin Fields should tell Vikings fans that Kirk Cousins is on somewhat thin ice this season. If Minnesota doesn't make the playoffs this year, there could be some major changes in the organization. Luckily, the franchise has made the playoffs every other year since 2015 so if the trend holds, they will be back in 2021. Receiver Justin Jefferson was incredible as a rookie last season and Dalvin Cook had career highs across the board. Free agent acquisition Patrick Peterson will look to help mentor the younger defensive backs like Cameron Dantzler. If everything goes right, this could be an 11 win team. If everything goes wrong, expect there to be more wholesale transactions than your local Sam's Club. Okay, maybe that's an exaggeration but you get the point...
9 SEED: New Orleans Saints (9-8)- You'll see a theme with these "bubble" teams and it is an uncertainty at the quarterback position. The Saints are no exception to the rule. It was heartbreaking to see future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees walk off the field for the last time. His successor will likely not be Taysom Hill but former first overall pick Jameis Winston. He should be more efficient under Sean Payton that will help the much-maligned QB from throwing 30 interceptions in season again. I don't see the Saints fighting to make the Super Bowl but the playoffs should still be an attainable goal. With a solid offensive line, Michael Thomas (returning from injury) and Alvin Kamara, this team won't see as much of a drop-off as many are predicting.
10 SEED: Chicago Bears (8-9)- Mitchell Trubisky out. Justin Fields in. The Bears faithful has been clamoring for a franchise quarterback and I firmly believe that Fields has the IT factor. The sooner he takes over for Andy Dalton, the better the chances are for the team's playoff hopes. While the Bears defense has been good for quite some time, I'm excited to see how this offense performs. It will be important for Chicago to emphasize the rushing attack with a great stable of backs in David Montgomery, Tarik Cohen (back from ACL tear), Damien Williams, and Khalil Herbert. Meanwhile, second-round pick Teven Jenkins is set to take over at left tackle for released tackle Charles Leno Jr. I also expect tight end Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney to have increased roles on the team. The future looks bright in the Windy City but it may be until 2022 before the fruits can be harvested.
11 SEED: Carolina Panthers (8-9)- The Cardiac Cats lost eight games by eight points or less in 2020 showing that they can be competitive despite their youthfulness on both sides of the ball. Brian Burns, Jeremy Chinn, Derrick Brown, and Jaycee Horn give the Panthers one of the best young defenses in the league. Carolina's potential will ride on the shoulders of former Jets QB Sam Darnold. He's shown glimpses of brilliance but other times, he's simply "seeing ghosts." If Darnold has a Ryan Tannehill type resurgence, it wouldn't be surprising to see Matt Rhule in his second year, sneak into the postseason. Assuming Christian McCaffrey is 100% healthy again, the Panthers are primed to be a dark-horse playoff contender this season.
12 SEED: Washington Football Team (8-9)- I'm sold on everything about the Football Team...except for the most important position. The NFC East hasn't seen a back-to-back division champion since the '04 Eagles so I have to ride with history on this one. We've seen this story before. Ryan Fitzmagic excites for the first quarter of the season before a tragic four interception game that gets him benched for a backup quarterback. Playoff hero Taylor Heinicke played well in his brief stint with Washington and could take control of the starting spot sooner rather than later. While most fans know about the defense, it is the offensive potential that could get this team to double-digit wins. Adding Curtis Samuel (free agency) and Dyami Brown (draft) gives this team a fast, young core with Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas, and Antonio Gibson mixing in as well.
Others: (“rebuilding,” too many roster holes, or too inconsistent)
13 SEED: Atlanta Falcons (5-12)- Atlanta traded in Julio Jones for Kyle Pitts but will it pay dividends in the long run? The bigger question was Pitts worth drafting over a potential franchise QB (Justin Fields)? The Falcons defense was pretty bad as corners Kendall Sheffield, Isaiah Oliver, or A.J. Terrell failed to record a PFF grade over 60. I see Matt Ryan and Co. being a last place team in the NFC South for the foreseeable future.
14 SEED: Philadelphia Eagles (4-13)- Virtually no one is expecting Philly to be great this season but Jalen Hurts might have something to say about that. The sample size was small but he showed enough glimpses to convince the Eagles to part ways with Carson Wentz this offseason. Will it be the right decision? Time will tell.
15 SEED: New York Giants (4-13)- Last chance saloon for Daniel Jones? If the third-year pro out of Duke doesn't cut down on the turnovers soon, he may be out of a starting job in New York. The Giants are the likeliest in this section to prove me dead wrong in a couple of months. In my opinion, James Bradberry is the most underrated corner in football and rookies Azeez Ojulari and Kadarius Toney can become Pro Bowl players sooner rather than later. However, I'm not convinced they can play disciplined football on offense despite Saquon Barkley coming back.
16 SEED: Detroit Lions (4-13)- How will Jared Goff fare after the blockbuster trade from LA? I think he'll do decent but the offense desperately needs to see second-year pro D'Andre Swift break out. Tight end T.J. Hockenson becomes the de-facto #1 passing option with Kenny Golladay leaving for the Giants. Meanwhile, cornerback Jeff Okudah will need to improve after struggling in his rookie season. Detroit is in rebuilding mode so although playoffs are highly unlikely, seeing development from their young building blocks (Sewell, Swift, Hockenson) will be key for 2022 and beyond.
Notable Season Trends
NFC:
LAR: Starts season 8-1
TB: Finishes season on 9-game winning streak (incl. playoffs)
GB: Starts season 5-0
SEA: Undefeated from Weeks 4-9
ARI: Win final 6 regular season games
CAR: Starts season 4-1
PHI: Starts season 0-8
DET: Starts season 0-5
AFC:
KC: Start season 12-1
BUF: Undefeated from Weeks 6-11
CLE: Start season 7-1
TEN: Start season 5-0
BAL: Start season 7-1
NE: Start season 6-1
LAC: Undefeated from Weeks 13-17
DEN: Starts season 0-5
JAX: Start season 3-0
HOU: Start season 0-10
Playoff Predictions
AFC Playoff Picture:
#1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)
#2. Buffalo Bills (13-4)
#3. Cleveland Browns (12-5)
#4. Tennessee Titans (11-6)
#5. Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
#6. New England Patriots (10-7)
#7. Miami Dolphins (10-7)
NFC Playoff Picture:
#1. Los Angeles Rams (13-4)
#2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-5)
#3. Green Bay Packers (11-6)
#4. Dallas Cowboys (8-9)
#5. Arizona Cardinals (10-7)
#6. San Francisco 49ers (10-7)
#7. Seattle Seahawks (10-7)
Wild Card Weekend:
#2 Buccaneers over #7 Seahawks 31-20- Bucs. Sharpie. Seattle's defense just doesn't match up well. It would take a career day for Russell Wilson to pull off the upset.
#3 Packers over #6 49ers 35-31- Rushing attacks will be on full display but Green Bay's Aaron Jones will steal the show over Raheem Mostert, Trey Sermon, and Jeff Wilson.
#4 Cowboys over #5 Cardinals 27-24- Kyler Murray's playoff debut will be a good one but will be spoiled by my CPOY Dak Prescott and Dallas.
#2 Bills over #7 Dolphins 27-20- Divisional games are always tricky when they happen in the playoffs but I think the Bills are the much superior team.
#3 Browns over #6 Patriots 24-20- Cleveland will host their first playoff game since 1995 and the crowd will be ROCKING. It will be a successful season if the Patriots are able to get into the playoffs in a highly-competitive AFC. I expect a tight game but the Browns get a key takeaway to swing the game in their favor for good.
#4 Titans over #5 Ravens 42-38- A rematch of the 2019 and 2020 playoff game. Here's your tie-breaker. Get your popcorn ready. Tannehill and Jackson combine for TEN passing touchdowns as no defense will be found. In a game that could go either way, I see the Titans getting their revenge.
Divisional Round:
#1 Rams over #4 Cowboys 37-27- Can Matthew Stafford win his first playoff game? Yes, yes he will. The Rams have the better team in nearly all facets and should come out on top. It will be a shootout though.
#1 Chiefs over #4 Titans 45-35- If we get this matchup, it's a guaranteed high-scoring affair. Like I mentioned before, it's going to be the Titans defense that holds them back from making a deep playoff run.
#2 Buccaneers over #3 Packers 31-27- Rodgers-Brady for the last time? It could be. This time, Tampa Bay will be at home in warm Florida and should edge out the W once again.
#3 Browns over #2 Bills 21-18- The first "upset" of the playoffs goes to Cleveland. I think what will cost Buffalo is their subpar rushing attack. Zack Moss and Devin Singletary are decent but not on the caliber of the Browns dynamic duo.
Conference Championship:
#3 Browns over #1 Chiefs 28-27- Someone has to beat the Chiefs, right? I'm going with the UPSET here as the Cleveland Browns reach their first Super Bowl in franchise history. The magical season continues.
#2 Buccaneers over #1 Rams 27-24 (OT)- I had a hard time picking this game. After Tampa Bay became the first team to play in their own stadium for the Super Bowl, there is a solid shot that the Rams can do it as well. However, I've learned that Tom Brady is one step of the competition and he'll deny Stafford his first trip to the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl 56
I'm going BOLD for my 2021 Super Bowl prediction. The NFC representative, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be a popular pick to return to the big game. Tom Brady has everything an NFL QB would want but yet, that's still not enough. An eighth ring is in his sights and there is only one team that can take him down: my AFC representative, the Cleveland Browns.
It is incredible that the Browns are even being mentioned with being in Super Bowl. A team that was 0-16 just a few short years ago is now playing for the Lombardi Trophy. Nearly every fan in America will be pulling for the Browns to pull it off if and when this matchup happens. Baker Mayfield has finally ended the streak of quarterback futility in Cleveland and helped the team finish with their best record since 1994. They also have a great head coach and front office that has developed the team. Myles Garrett, Nick Chubb, and Denzel Ward are among the best at their respective positions and have helped open their championship window.
For the Browns to emerge victorious in their first Super Bowl appearance, they will need a heavy dose of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. In a 17-game schedule, keeping them fresh will be more needed than ever. Cleveland was third in 2020 in average rushing yards per game (148.4), only behind Lamar Jackson's Ravens and Derrick Henry's Titans. It will be a tough task against a Buccaneers defense that was sixth in total defense last season. Likewise, they had the best run defense in the league, allowing just 80.6 yards per game on the ground.
As for the Buccaneers, they have a big advantage: championship experience. All 22 starters are returning and know how it feels to play in the biggest game of the season. There is a caveat though. Super Bowl 55 was in Tampa Bay with limited fan capacity. This year's big game will be in Los Angeles where I would expect to see at least 65-70% of the 70,000 seat stadium that can expand to over 100,000 seats for major events, rooting for Cleveland. A totally different environment indeed.
In this matchup, I expect Mike Evans to have a big game. He only had one catch in last year's game vs Kansas City so he'll look to add to his potential Hall of Fame resume by trying to win the game's MVP. Evans should easily finish with his eighth straight 1,000 yard season and help clear the way for Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski to have productive seasons as well.
With two evenly matched teams, something is going to have to give. I think it will come down to who can get more pressure on the quarterback. The Bucs made the Super Bowl a living nightmare for the Chiefs last season. It won't be that easy against Cleveland who have two top tier guards, Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller. This game will come down to the final minutes where a Mayfield pass to Odell Beckham Jr on 4th and 12 with 45 seconds remaining will seemingly send this historical Super Bowl into overtime at 27-27.
However, a lot can happen in 45 seconds and Browns fans unfortunately know how this story ends. Tom Brady will hit tight end Rob Gronkowski down the middle to set up a 50 yard field goal attempt for kicker Ryan Succop. Head coach Kevin Stefanski forgoes icing the kicker as the Bucs' field goal attempt hits the left upright...but clanks through. No "double doinks" here. Tampa Bay edges Cleveland to win back-to-back Super Bowl titles.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30, Cleveland Browns 27
Super Bowl Champion: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3rd title
Super Bowl MVP: Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers
Dylan's Predictions:
Super Bowl 56 Prediction: Rams vs Browns; Champion: Browns 28-24
Regular Season MVP: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers
Top 10 Games of 2021
Honorable Mentions:
GB @ CHI (Week 6)- Could this be the decade of Justin Fields terrorizing the Packers just like Rodgers has done to the Bears?
WAS @ DAL (Week 16)- On paper, a game that could decide the division.
LA @ DET (Week 7)- Can Detroit pull off the massive upset against Jared Goff's former team?
NE @ CAR (Week 9)- Will Cam Newton still be QB1 for the Pats? I sure hope that Cam gets a shot at his former team.
JAX @ NYJ (Week 16)- Number one vs number two in the 2021 NFL Draft. Who's ready to make a statement?
#10. Panthers vs Jets (Week 1)- Did the Jets make the right decision by moving on from Sam Darnold? We'll get an early glimpse right out of the gate.
#9. Chiefs vs Chargers (Week 15)- Once the Chargers roster becomes more complete, Justin Herbert vs Patrick Mahomes could be a LEGIT rivalry. Plus the comments that Mahomes made in the offseason has already stoked the fire.
#8. Ravens vs Chiefs (Week 2)- Can Baltimore finally get past the KC hex? Lamar and Co could quickly change the narrative if they upset the Chiefs.
#7. Colts @ Titans (Week 3)- In a division that should come down to the wire, the two Titans/Colts matchups will be CRUCIAL. There is also potential that Wentz may not be playing in the first game which would swing the tide in favor of Tennessee.
#6. Bills @ Buccaneers (Week 14)- This will be a popular Super Bowl prediction and both teams should be hitting their stride by Week 14.
#5. Browns vs Chiefs (Week 1)- Oh so close for Cleveland in the Divisional Round. Had they upset the Chiefs, I think there was a pretty good chance they would've been in the Super Bowl. We'll find out what they're made of on opening weekend and see if they can exact revenge.
#4. Buccaneers @ Rams (Week 3)- NFC Championship preview? It's very possible. Last season, the Rams defense had their way with Tom Brady but the Bucs had the last laugh and won the Super Bowl.
#3. Bills @ Chiefs (Week 5)- The rematch of the AFC Championship. Similar to the Ravens, this is THE game on the schedule for Buffalo to prove they can take down the back-to-back AFC Champion.
#2. Packers vs Chiefs (Week 9)- Five out of the top ten games are Chiefs games? Yes, yes they are. We got robbed of a Mahomes-Rodgers matchup due to an injury to Mahomes. Assuming lightning doesn't strike twice, a classic matchup will finally reach primetime.
#1. Buccaneers @ Patriots (Week 4)- Is there any doubt what would be number one? Tom Brady's return to New England will be arguably the best regular season storyline in the NFL since Peyton Manning's return to Indianapolis.
Most Consequential Games
IND @ MIA Week 4- I expect both teams to be in the mix for a wild card spot in 2021 and in my predictions, this game will have major playoff implications when it's all said and done.
PIT @ BAL Week 18- As mentioned earlier, this game could decide who makes the playoffs. The NBC Week 18 primetime game could very well be this one.
DAL @ PHI Week 18 & WAS @ NYG Week 18- More often than not, the NFC East comes down to the final week of the regular season. I expect nothing less in 2021.
SEA @ LAR Week 15- As the 7th seed, Seattle may need to steal a game to avoid being left out of the playoffs. Every divisional game matters and it may be multiplied even more in the NFC West.
BAL @ CLE Week 14- Prediction: winner of this game wins the AFC North. Mark it down.
NFL Awards
MVP: Josh Allen, QB, Bills
OPOY: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs
DPOY: Aaron Donald, DT, Rams
OROY: Justin Fields, QB, Bears
DROY: Jaycee Horn, CB, Panthers
CPOY: Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys
Coach of the Year: Sean McDermott, Bills
Fantasy Player of the Year: Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
Breakout Offensive Player: Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos
Breakout Defensive Player: Kenneth Murray, LB, Chargers
Best Offense: Kansas City Chiefs
Best Defense: Cleveland Browns
Haters Gonna Hate (an imaginary award where a highly scrutinized player proves people wrong): Cam Newton, QB, Patriots
Most Improved Team: San Francisco 49ers
Biggest Surprise: New England Patriots
Biggest Disappointment: New York Giants
Team on the Rise: Los Angeles Chargers
Biggest Spoiler: Cincinnati Bengals
Game of the Year: Buccaneers @ Patriots Week 4
Upset of the Year: Football Team over Chiefs (Week 6)
Link to my game-to-game predictions is here! Enjoy the season everyone and check back in a few months to laugh at my picks.
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