September is finally here which can only mean one thing: FOOTBALL. The offseason is always a straight up WACKY one and this year didn't fail to deliver. Russell Wilson, Davante Adams, Khalil Mack, Tyreek Hill, Matt Ryan and more stars were traded from their respective teams and look for greener pastures.
Who will be the breakout team of 2022? Who will fail to meet expectations? What player will become the next household name? Most importantly, who's hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February? Read on to find out...
Team-by-Team Analysis
*Confidence is how sure I am of that respective team making the playoffs*
AFC:
1 SEED: Buffalo Bills- PROJECTED RECORD: 14-3; Confidence: 99%
BEST CASE: 15-2; WORST CASE: 11-6; Team MVP: Josh Allen
Is it Buffalo's time to breakthrough to the Super Bowl? They certainly look the part. The one area where the Bills could improve is their rushing attack which is where James Cook could be a true X-Factor. He won't need to run for 1,000 yards but his explosiveness is very intriguing. The rest of the roster is ready to go as Von Miller's new contract (six year, $120 million) leads their free agency haul. I think I guy that could break out is defensive end Gregory Rousseau. He'll start alongside Miller and learning from a future Hall of Famer isn't a bad bet. With cornerback Tre'Davious White returning from injury and Tremaine Edmunds holding down the fort at linebacker, expect Buffalo to be at the top of the NFL throughout the entire season.
Biggest Win: Week 1 @ Los Angeles Rams
Most Surprising Loss: Week 3 @ Miami
2 SEED: Kansas City Chiefs- PROJECTED RECORD: 12-5; Confidence: 95%
BEST CASE: 15-2; WORST CASE: 10-7; Team MVP: Patrick Mahomes
It'll be more of the same for Kansas City in 2022 but don't expect the games to be easy by any stretch of imagination. The competition for the Chiefs is as strong as it's been since Patrick Mahomes took the league by storm. For the first-half of 2021, Mahomes and the Chiefs looked "human." The loss of Tyreek Hill could be bigger than many may think as his game-breaking ability can't be replaced easily. New additions Skyy Moore and veteran Juju Smith-Schuster will attempt to fill the void but tight end Travis Kelce is the clear number one weapon. I'm not too worried about K.C., it's more about this division and the battle of attrition that could cause this squad to fall to a wild card team instead of divisional champs.
Biggest Win: Week 6 vs Buffalo
Most Surprising Loss: None
3 SEED: Tennessee Titans- PROJECTED RECORD: 10-7; Confidence: 80%
BEST CASE: 12-5; WORST CASE: 7-10; Team MVP: Derrick Henry
Is the clock ticking on Ryan Tannehill? The Titans put him on notice when they drafted Liberty's Malik Willis in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft. In the AFC, you'll need a dynamic quarterback to take you to the Super Bowl. 2020 might have been the peak of Tennessee's potential with Tannehill, making it to the AFC Championship Game. Derrick Henry, coming off an injury, isn't getting any younger. It's a tough place to be. They're good enough to sneak into the playoffs and win 8-11 games. It's also likely they'll win the AFC South. However, everyone knows they're not good enough to make a deep run in the postseason.
Biggest Win: Week 12 vs Cincinnati
Most Surprising Loss: Week 8 @ Houston
4 SEED: Cincinnati Bengals- PROJECTED RECORD: 10-7; Confidence: 85%
BEST CASE: 13-4; WORST CASE: 9-8; Team MVP: Joe Burrow
After a stunning run to the Super Bowl in 2021-22, what will Cincinnati do for an encore? The "Super Bowl hangover" is a real thing and in an ultra-competitive conference, they'll need to be on their A-game every week as they'll have a major target on their backs. Cinci may not improve record-wise but the product on the field should be more consistent. The Bengals addressed their biggest weakness, and what arguably costed them the big game: the offensive line. They added La'el Collins (right tackle), Ted Karras (center) and Alex Cappa (right guard) as their electrifying offense will continue to thrive. Zac Taylor has done a remarkable job with this team and as long as Burrow stays healthy, Cincinnati should be in the championship mix once again.
Biggest Win: Week 17 vs Buffalo
Most Surprising Loss: Week 3 @ Jets
5 SEED: Las Vegas Raiders- PROJECTED RECORD: 11-6; Confidence: 60%
BEST CASE: 12-5; WORST CASE: 8-9; Team MVP: Derek Carr
With chaos all around in 2021 (see Jon Gruden, Henry Ruggs), the Raiders defied the odds and made it to the playoffs. Despite a loss in the Wild Card round, the momentum should carry on to this season. Carr is reunited by former Fresno State teammate Davante Adams who will provide a major boost to an already solid offense headlined by Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs, and Hunter Renfrow. Defensively, Pro Bowl linebacker Denzel Perryman and defensive end Maxx Crosby will lead things. The Raiders franchise hasn't shown a lot of consistency, not having back-to-back playoff appearances since the 2002 season. However, first-year head coach Josh McDaniels should help provide some stability and bring Las Vegas to their second-consecutive winning season.
Biggest Win: Week 18 vs Kansas City
Most Surprising Loss: Week 16 @ Pittsburgh
6 SEED: Denver Broncos- PROJECTED RECORD: 11-6; Confidence: 60%
BEST CASE: 12-5; WORST CASE: 7-10; Team MVP: Russell Wilson
"Broncos Country, LET'S RIDE!" For the last few seasons, the common sentiment with Denver was, "if only they had a great quarterback." Enter future Hall of Fame quarterback Russell Wilson. Sound familiar? *cough* Peyton Manning *cough*. Wilson hopes to provide much needed stability at the position and get the Broncos back to the playoffs for the first time since winning Super Bowl 50. The main beneficiary of Wilson's arrival is the receiving corps. Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and K.J. Hamler should see a major boost in production. Meanwhile, second-year running back Javonte Williams will take more of a workhorse role in the backfield with Melvin Gordon mixing in. There's no reason why the Broncos won't be back in the playoffs.
Biggest Win: Week 16 @ LA Rams
Most Surprising Loss: Week 8 @ Jacksonville
7 SEED: Los Angeles Chargers- PROJECTED RECORD: 11-6; Confidence: 65%
BEST CASE: 12-5; WORST CASE: 8-9; Team MVP: Justin Herbert
No excuses for L.A. The time to win is NOW. Anything short of double-digit wins would be a disappointment. Based on the off-season moves, it seems they agree. On the defensive side of the ball, the Chargers traded a second-round pick for star pass rusher Khalil Mack. In addition, they acquired former Patriots' cornerback J.C. Jackson in free agency, second in the league in interceptions last season with 8. Resigning receiver Mike Williams and drafting right guard Zion Johnson will help Justin Herbert flourish. The only thing preventing this team from making the playoffs is their own division, which will beat up on each other. With head coach Brandon Staley's aggressive tendencies, the Bolts could easily be a top three seed...or miss the playoffs entirely depending on if the ball bounces their way in 2022.
Biggest Win: Week 11 vs Kansas City
Most Surprising Loss: Week 4 @ Houston
Bubble (any of these squads could make it in the field and I wouldn’t be surprised)
8 SEED: Baltimore Ravens- PROJECTED RECORD: 10-7
BEST CASE: 12-5; WORST CASE: 7-10; Team MVP: Lamar Jackson
The Ravens were DECIMATED with injuries last season, which served as a main catalyst for their demise in 2021 (8-9 record). With an improved and healthy roster, Baltimore will be a great team once again. After a star-studded MVP season in 2019, the last two seasons have seen Lamar Jackson regress. He'll rely on second-year receiver Rashod Bateman out of Minnesota as he'll be entrusted with a massive role as the de-facto number one wideout for Jackson. Many were not fond of the trade that sent Marquise Brown to Arizona so time will tell if that ends up being a good decision. Tight end Mark Andrews will likely eclipse 1,000 yards again to help Jackson thrive. I'm not too worried about the defense as rookie safety Kyle Hamilton enters the fold. Overall, this is a team that could finish atop the AFC or just outside the playoffs depending on how a few key games pan out.
9 SEED: Miami Dolphins- PROJECTED RECORD: 10-7
BEST CASE: 11-6; WORST CASE: 7-10; Team MVP: Tyreek Hill
Another casualty of a jam-packed conference is the Dolphins. Firing Brian Flores wasn't a good decision at all but Mike McDaniel should work out just fine. The offense should be improved as free agent acquisition Terron Armstead will help give the o-line a major boost. At receiver, good luck covering Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. Together, their speed is going to cause the AFC issues like we've never seen before. Tua has everything he needs to be successful and must perform in year three or else the Dolphins may be looking for his replacement sooner rather than later. Expect Miami to be in the mix until the final week of the regular season.
10 SEED: Pittsburgh Steelers- PROJECTED RECORD: 9-8
BEST CASE: 10-7; WORST CASE: 7-10; Team MVP: T.J. Watt
Every year, Pittsburgh finds a way to be in the playoff mix. Mike Tomlin has NEVER finished a season with a losing record. Despite the retirement of future HOF'er Ben Roethlisberger, I don't much changing. With a top-tier defense, headlined by T.J. Watt, the Steelers will keep most games competitive even if their offense struggles early on with two new quarterbacks in the fold. Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett will be perfectly fine as long as they can manage the game. Running back is finally not a question mark as Najee Harris had a fantastic rookie season, posting a 1,200 yard, seven touchdown campaign. Meanwhile, incoming rookie George Pickens could be the ultimate wild-card player in this system. It'll be tough to make the playoffs in a tough division but I wouldn't totally write off Mike Tomlin, even in a time of transition.
11 SEED: New England Patriots- PROJECTED RECORD: 9-8
BEST CASE: 11-6; WORST CASE: 7-10; Team MVP: Mac Jones
Are the Patriots done as a Super Bowl contender? The Bills demolition of New England in the Wild Card round proved there is the changing of the guard in the AFC East. The division is as competitive as its been in quite some time with the Dolphins and Jets making up ground from a roster standpoint. New England's roster isn't anything to write home about but I trust Bill Belichick to field a competitive team as we all should know by now. Mac Jones had an efficient rookie season, making the Pro Bowl and starting every game. The issue for the Pats is that their roster has staying neutral which isn't the worst thing in the world but when the rest of the division has key additions, it's not a good sign for their immediate playoff chances unless some unheralded stars emerge from the fray.
12 SEED: Indianapolis Colts- PROJECTED RECORD: 8-9
BEST CASE: 11-6; WORST CASE: 6-11; Team MVP: Jonathan Taylor
Hot take: Keeping Carson Wentz would've been better than trading for Matt Ryan. Indianapolis has become the home for aging quarterbacks and I'm not sure Ryan is going to take this team to new heights. He won't "lose" you a game at this point in his career but won't win you one either. It was clear to see with Atlanta that he had regressed and I don't see a "Stafford-esque" renaissance on the horizon. That doesn't spell doom and gloom for their playoff chances though. For the Colts to be successful on offense, they'll need to rely on superstar running back Jonathan Taylor who was a dark-horse MVP candidate with over 1,800 yards and 18 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Michael Pittman Jr will only continue to get better in year three. Indy's defense will keep them in the majority of games but I'm not sure they have the firepower to be an elite contender in the AFC.
13 SEED: Cleveland Browns- PROJECTED RECORD: 7-10
BEST CASE: 10-7; WORST CASE: 5-12; Team MVP: Nick Chubb
Will the trade of the decade pay dividends for the Browns? Unless you've been living under a rock, Deshaun Watson has joined Cleveland, however not for a small price. Three first round picks to be exact. I'm not sure that was a great decision as Watson's 11 game suspension will likely wipe out the Browns' playoff hopes in 2022. Jacoby Brissett is a fine back up but not a guy I'd want for three-fourths of the season. They'll have to hope that Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt both dominate the ground game and the D does the rest. Unfortunately, I think it'll be yet another wasted season for the Dawg Pound.
Others: (“rebuilding,” too many roster holes, or too inconsistent)
14 SEED: New York Jets- PROJECTED RECORD: 6-11
BEST CASE: 9-8; WORST CASE: 4-13; Team MVP: Zach Wilson
"Hello, this is your captain speaking." Is it time for take-off in East Rutherford? If Zach Wilson fails, it won't be because of the team around him. After all, he's got that "dawg" in him. I believe he could have a sneaky good season and is set to thrive in his second year. The skill positions have been drastically upgraded. At receiver, rookie Garrett Wilson, Corey Davis, and Elijah Moore will lead the group with C.J. Uzomah at tight end. A two-headed monster at running back is imminent with Michael Carter getting some support with Iowa State's Breece Hall joining the backfield. The defense is laden with potential as they'll bring the sauce with Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner at cornerback with defensive end Jermaine Johnson II as a potential first-round steal. Playoffs probably shouldn't be expected quite yet but by season's end, I'd be willing to bet the narrative about New York will begin to shift in a positive manner. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Jets with seven or eight wins either.
15 SEED: Jacksonville Jaguars- PROJECTED RECORD: 4-13
BEST CASE: 6-11; WORST CASE: 2-15; Team MVP: Trevor Lawrence
It's nowhere to go but up for the Jaguars. After being the worst team in the league for the last two years, they must find a way to climb out of the basement. Unfortunately, I think there's a good chance they'll remain there for at least one more year. The glimmer of hope lies in the hands of their last two first-round picks: Travon Walker and Trevor Lawrence. I think Walker has a great chance of winning defensive rookie of the year in a division with subpar quarterback play and a clear opportunity to start. Meanwhile, Lawrence has to cut down on the turnovers. A 12:17 touchdown to interception ratio was really poor and it could be argued that "TLaw" was the worst rookie quarterback out of everyone that got significant minutes. Wins aren't necessarily expected in 2022 but he must improve his efficiency in year two or questions will begin to arise.
16 SEED: Houston Texans- PROJECTED RECORD: 4-13
BEST CASE: 6-11; WORST CASE: 2-15; Team MVP: Brandin Cooks
At four wins last season, the Texans somehow "exceeded" the minimal expectations last season. I really like the decision for first-year head coach Lovie Smith to give quarterback Davis Mills a full season to start and show what he's got. Statistically, he was the best rookie quarterback so maybe just maybe there's something in the making. The Texans have a LONG way to go before they're in realistic playoff contention but they're laying the foundation with Derek Stingley Jr at cornerback. Also, look out for Dameon Pierce to overtake Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead for the starting running back spot at some point in the near future. Following the Watson trade, the rebuild has just begun for Houston so patience is crucial.
NFC:
1 SEED: Los Angeles Rams- PROJECTED RECORD: 12-5; Confidence: 99%
BEST CASE: 14-3; WORST CASE: 10-7; Team MVP: Matthew Stafford
Run it back? The Rams proved that draft picks mean nothing and a change of scenery is all that is needed for an elite quarterback to reach the pinnacle of professional football. Los Angeles resigned Aaron Donald while adding Allen Robinson II and Bobby Wagner to their stacked roster. While the Rams will be the favorite in the NFC, they'll have a giant target on their backs from the other 31 teams trying to take them down. If they can handle that, it wouldn't shock me to see them back in the Super Bowl once again.
Biggest Win: Week 12 @ Kansas City
Most Surprising Loss: Week 18 @ Seattle
2 SEED: Tampa Bay Buccaneers- PROJECTED RECORD: 12-5; Confidence 99%
BEST CASE: 14-3; WORST CASE: 10-7; Team MVP: Tom Brady
Back like he never left. Father Time gets to everyone...except Tom Brady apparently. His retirement didn't last too long. The man lives and breathes football. This will be a Super Bowl contender once more with the main core still intact. The offensive line could be a minor concern as center Ryan Jensen suffered a major knee injury just two days into training camp. Pro Bowl receiver Chris Godwin is recovering smoothly from an ACL tear but even if he's not quite ready come Week 1, the Bucs have options. Despite losing Rob Gronkowski to retirement in the offseason, Russell Gage and Julio Jones (acquired in free agency) should provide some much needed depth for Tampa's offense. As long as the offense is humming, the Bucs should win the NFC South and make a deep postseason run with relative ease.
Biggest Win: Week 4 vs Kansas City
Most Surprising Loss: Week 6 @ Pittsburgh
3 SEED: Green Bay Packers- PROJECTED RECORD: 11-6; Confidence: 99%
BEST CASE: 14-3; WORST CASE: 10-7; Team MVP: Aaron Rodgers
So much for retirement. Following his three-year contract extension, the BAAAAD man is back in Wisconsin. The offense could see slight statistical declines without Davante Adams but c'mon...it's Aaron Rodgers. I'm excited to see draft picks Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson who could break-out with this offense. The tandem of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon at running back will continue to help this offense thrive. Green Bay will easily make the playoffs. As we know, the biggest issue is can the Packers perform in the postseason?
Biggest Win: Week 15 vs LA Rams
Most Surprising Loss: Week 7 @ Washington
4 SEED: Washington Commanders- PROJECTED RECORD: 9-8; Confidence: 55%
BEST CASE: 11-6; WORST CASE: 6-11; Team MVP: Chase Young
The team in D.C. has a name! It's about time! While I'm not the biggest fan of Carson Wentz' career prospects going forward, I do believe he'll have a pretty solid season if he can avoid mindless turnovers and of course, the dreaded injury bug. The Commanders have a mix of young receivers (Jahan Dotson, Dyami Brown) and veteran receivers (Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel). On defense, Chase Young is back from his season-ending injury and will come back with a vengeance. If the secondary can play better, I like Washington to make some noise. My surprise team of 2022, the Commanders in their first season will be postseason bound.
Biggest Win: Week 18 vs Dallas
Most Surprising Loss: Week 13 vs New York Giants
5 SEED: New Orleans Saints- PROJECTED RECORD: 10-7; Confidence: 70%
BEST CASE: 12-5; WORST CASE: 7-10; Team MVP: Jameis Winston
There is a new man in charge in the Big Easy as Dennis Allen is the newest head coach following Sean Payton's departure from the NFL. The Saints have an all-around talented roster. Receiver is an enormous strength with Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and rookie Chris Olave giving Winston a talented group to throw to. The defense is probably the most underrated unit in the league. They've been solid for years but never quite get the respect they deserve. Cameron Jordan, Marshon Lattimore, and DeMario Davis will lead this unit. If not for a remarkable 49ers comeback in Week 18 last year, New Orleans would've been in the playoffs despite playing Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill at quarterback for half of the season. Expect this season to see the odds turn in their favor.
Biggest Win: Week 11 vs LA Rams
Most Surprising Loss: Week 1 @ Atlanta
6 SEED: Minnesota Vikings- PROJECTED RECORD: 10-7; Confidence: 60%
BEST CASE: 11-6; WORST CASE: 7-10; Team MVP: Kirk Cousins
It's a new era for the Vikes as head coach Kevin O'Connell enters the spotlight. The former Rams offensive coordinator should help give Kirk Cousins a foundation to be more consistent. It clearly paid off with Stafford so maybe lightning will strike twice? The Vikings need to get back to the postseason with the way the roster is currently constructed. The offense is loaded once again. Justin Jefferson is a bonafide superstar, posting over 3,000 yards and 17 touchdowns in his first two seasons as a pro. Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen will continue to thrive. In addition, their first round pick, Andrew Booth Jr., should fit in nicely as Minnesota tries to solve their CB2 spot alongside Patrick Peterson. Expect the Vikings to seriously challenge for the NFC North in 2022.
Biggest Win: Week 1 @ Green Bay
Most Surprising Loss: Week 14 @ Detroit
7 SEED: Dallas Cowboys- PROJECTED RECORD: 9-8; Confidence: 60%
BEST CASE: 12-5; WORST CASE: 8-9; Team MVP: Dak Prescott
When is the last time the NFC East had a back-to-back winner? 2004. In other words, history shows us that the Cowboys won't win the division. However, they're too talented to miss the playoffs. Defensive Rookie of the Year Micah Parsons is LEGIT, giving the 'Boys a true superstar on D. Despite falling short in the playoffs, Dak Prescott showed he's among the league's top ten quarterbacks following his amazing recovery from his heartbreaking leg injury in 2020. Amari Cooper is gone, leaving CeeDee Lamb as the number one receiver. They won't see much of a drop off as Michael Gallup and tight end Dalton Schultz should continue their success. With an easy schedule, there's almost no way the Cowboys will miss the playoffs, right?
Biggest Win: Week 16 vs Philadelphia
Most Surprising Loss: Week 4 vs Washington
Bubble (any of these squads could make it in the field and I wouldn’t be surprised)
8 SEED: Arizona Cardinals- PROJECTED RECORD: 8-9
BEST CASE: 11-6; WORST CASE: 7-10; Team MVP: Kyler Murray
Is the Cardinals' late season swoon a fluke or a subtle sign of things to come? For the last two seasons, Kliff Kingsbury's squads have folded in the back half of the year. In 2022, I could see that trend reversing. Arizona was the last remaining undefeated team in 2021 but I doubt they'll start that hot this time around. Their season commences with the Chiefs, Rams, and Raiders...yikes. Meanwhile, star receiver DeAndre Hopkins' six-game suspension won't help matters along with the draw of facing the vaunted AFC West division this season. I like this Cardinals team but I don't LOVE them considering the factors at play. That's why I have them just on the outside of the postseason.
9 SEED: San Francisco 49ers- PROJECTED RECORD: 8-9
BEST CASE: 12-5; WORST CASE: 6-11; Team MVP: Nick Bosa
I know this is my MAJOR hot take, especially after the Niners were on the cusp of another Super Bowl appearance. However, I truly believe that moving on from Jimmy Garoppolo now will be a fatal mistake, at least for this season. I understand that quarterback Trey Lance was drafted third overall in the 2021 NFL Draft but it doesn't look like he's quite ready to play. For the 49ers to prove me wrong, continuing to rely on their dominate run game will be crucial. Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel will be the key cogs in the offense and will need to stay healthy for the entire season. Defensively, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner will try and shut down the likes of Stafford and Murray in the challenging NFC West. If Lance fits right in, this team could easily win the division. If not, a third-place finish is imminent.
10 SEED: Philadelphia Eagles- PROJECTED RECORD: 8-9
BEST CASE: 10-7; WORST CASE: 6-11; Team MVP: A.J. Brown
A lot of you won't be happy with this prediction. The Eagles are chock full of talent but will that lead to more wins? I'm not so sure. Philly beat up on bad teams but didn't beat the good ones. That being said, I am a big fan of this roster. The big trade of getting A.J. Brown from Tennessee, should help matters. The Eagles defense could be SCARY good. They added Georgia DT Jordan Davis in the draft with Haason Reddick (11 sacks in 2021) and James Bradberry (career high 4 INTs in 2021) in free agency. I'm still a little iffy on Jalen Hurts though. He looked pedestrian at times and against elite teams, that's not gonna cut it. He could easily prove me wrong and really thrive in year three with a unique variety of offensive threats in Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, and the aforementioned Brown. I see this team being uber-talented but ultimately disappointing.
11 SEED: Carolina Panthers- PROJECTED RECORD: 7-10
BEST CASE: 10-7; WORST CASE: 6-11; Team MVP: Christian McCaffrey
It's a make-or-break season for Matt Rhule in his third season as head coach. His first move was upgrading their atrocious offensive line. Adding guard Austin Corbett from the defending champs and drafting NC State's Ekem "Icky" Ekwonu in round one will provide a big boost. For Carolina to be successful this year, they must see two things happen: a clean bill of health for Christian McCaffrey and stability at the quarterback position. CMC hasn't been able to stay healthy for the past two seasons as he saw his name swirled around in trade rumors. At QB, Baker Mayfield takes over for Sam Darnold as he becomes Carolina's lastest revitalization project. If Mayfield regains his 2020 form, the Panthers could sneak into the playoffs for the first time since 2017. If not, it'll be another year of status quo for the 'Cats.
Others: (“rebuilding,” too many roster holes, or too inconsistent)
12 SEED: Detroit Lions- PROJECTED RECORD: 6-11
BEST CASE: 8-9; WORST CASE: 3-14; Team MVP: Amon-Ra St. Brown
The rebuild in Motor City is lookin' pretty good. You have to start from the inside out and the Lions have addressed the offensive line (Penei Sewell) and defensive line (Aidan Hutchinson) in the last two drafts. Offensively, the Lions could be in the top-half of the league (dare I say top ten?). Former Alabama receiver Jameson Williams was added in round one to go with tight end T.J. Hockenson and running back D'Andre Swift. The guy to watch is Amon-Ra St. Brown. He had a fantastic rookie season but there's a good chance his role will continue to expand. St. Brown had at least 90 yards receiving and a touchdown in the final four games of the regular season. It wasn't a coincidence that Detroit scored 29 or more points in three of those four games. It's only a matter of time until Dan Campbell's gritty bunch produces more wins.
13 SEED: Chicago Bears- PROJECTED RECORD: 6-11
BEST CASE: 8-9; WORST CASE: 4-13; Team MVP: Robert Quinn
Poor Justin Fields. He showed glimpses of superstar ability but he'll need more around him. The Bears' front office did him no favors, letting go of star receiver Allen Robinson. Outside of Darnell Mooney at receiver, there's not much to be excited about. David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert is a solid one-two punch in the backfield so they'll need to run the football...A LOT. Of the five prominent second-year quarterbacks, I think Fields got a raw deal. Chicago will ultimately pay the price for not putting the right supporting cast around their signal caller. Chicago's defense will will their way to a couple upsets throughout the year but the roster needs some major improvements before becoming playoff-bound.
14 SEED: Seattle Seahawks- PROJECTED RECORD: 4-13
BEST CASE: 7-10; WORST CASE: 3-14; Team MVP: D.K. Metcalf
The U.S. Open Twitter account roasted Drew Lock and that might've been the funniest part of the offseason. Seattle is going to run, run, and run some more. A stable of backs led by Rashaad Penny and rookie Kenneth Walker III will need to be the offense's emphasis. Yes, the Seahawks have D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett but can Seattle's signal-caller deliver the goods? Ehhhh...I think we all know Drew Lock or Geno Smith isn't the long-term answer at QB. On defense, the "Legion of Boom is long gone as only Jamal Adams is a Pro Bowl caliber piece in the secondary. Good coaching will help the 'Hawks win a few home games but it's almost certain that this will be a bottom five team and a LONG season in the Pacific Northwest.
15 SEED: New York Giants- PROJECTED RECORD: 3-14
BEST CASE: 7-10; WORST CASE: 2-15; Team MVP: Kayvon Thibodeaux
If you look up "lame duck" in the dictionary, you'll probably come across Daniel Jones' name. That's a joke but it's clear Jones' time with Big Blue may be coming to an end if they can't make the playoffs, which is the likely fate for this squad. It's not all doom and gloom. The Giants had the best draft in my eyes, adding defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux and offensive tackle Evan Neal in round one. New York is rebuilding the right way and I think this is the last season for fans to suffer before either Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, or another rookie QB comes in and rescues this franchise. The Giants' defense should be solid but the offense will be a dumpster fire once again (forgive me, Saquon) which will be the team's ultimate demise.
16 SEED: Atlanta Falcons- PROJECTED RECORD: 3-14
BEST CASE: 7-10; WORST CASE: 2-15; Team MVP: Kyle Pitts
It's obvious that the Falcons are in rebuilding mode but they have a variety of young offensive weapons that could ignite this team to a few upsets this year. Receiver was a major concern for Atlanta after seeing Calvin Ridley suspended for an entire year for gambling on NFL games. USC's Drake London will attempt to fill the void alongside tight end Kyle Pitts and hybrid receiver/running back Cordarrelle Patterson. The glaring issue at quarterback will be an intriguing one as rookie Desmond Ridder comes into the fold. Marcus Mariota is locked into the starting spot but if the season goes off the rails, Atlanta may put in the rook to see what they have in Ridder. While the offense could be decent, the defense will likely struggle big time. A.J. Terrell has blossomed into a great corner and linebacker Deion Jones has stayed consistent since entering the league in 2016. The rest of the group will likely hold this team back from being very competitive in 2022.
Notable Season Trends
NFC:
LAR: Starts season 8-1
ARI: Starts season 0-4
CAR: Starts season 4-0; last remaining undefeated team
ATL: Loses 9 straight to close season; clinch number one pick in 2023 NFL Draft
NYG: Loses 7 straight games from Weeks 5-12
AFC:
KC: Starts 8-1
DEN: Starts season 4-1
BUF: Wins 10 of 11 following Week 7 bye week
MIA: Wins 6 straight games from Weeks 6-12
NE: Wins 6 straight from Weeks 5-11
LAC: Weeks 5 straight from Weeks 5-11
JAX: Beats Indianapolis in Jacksonville...again
Top 5 Games of 2022-2023
(Dis)Honorable Mention: Browns @ Texans Week 13- THE DESHAUN WATSON GAME...I find it hard to believe that Watson's first game as a Brown against the Texans is just a coincidence!
Honorable Mention 1: Rams @ Buccaneers Week 9- NFC Championship preview? I think there is two clear cut favorites to win the NFC and you'll see them square off in Week 9.
Honorable Mention 2: Browns @ Panthers Week 1- The only reason this isn't in the top five is that Deshaun Watson's suspension removes some of the star power from this contest. Can Baker exact revenge on his former squad and help propel Carolina to a winning record?
#5. Commanders @ Eagles Week 10 (MNF)- Carson Wentz return to Philadelphia will bring a lot of jeers from the Eagle faithful after his fall from grace. Can he get the last laugh and pick up a key divisional win?
#4. Bills @ Rams Week 1 (Season Opener)- First game between the consensus best teams in each conference. This one's gonna be EPIC.
#3. Every AFC West divisional game- I know, this is cheating in a major way. But it's very realistic that each team in the West could finish with a winning record and in turn, be in serious playoff contention. That means each game could be the difference from being a top AFC seed...or falling out of the playoff picture entirely.
#2. Broncos @ Seahawks Week 1 (MNF)- We don't have to wait long to see Russell Wilson's return to Seattle. Denver should easily pick up a W here but it might be tougher than expected with the emotions running wild.
#1. Bills @ Chiefs Week 6- I'm not sure how this game isn't in primetime. After an all-time overtime thriller in the 2022 Divisional round, we get a highly-anticipated rematch for the ages.
Most Consequential Games of the 2022-2023 Season
*based on my predictions
Week 2 (LAC-KC); Week 5 (LV-KC); Week 17 (DEN-KC): The battle for the AFC West should go down to the final week of the regular season and finding a way to beat Kansas City on the road could be the difference-maker if one of the other three teams hopes to knock the Chiefs off their perch atop the division for the first time since 2015.
Week 13: New Orleans @ Tampa Bay: Are you ready for some football? On Monday Night, the NFC South will be up for grabs. The Buccaneers (7-4) will be on thin ice as far as the division lead is concerned, having already lost in New Orleans (7-5) earlier in the year. It won't be easy but Tom Brady will beat the Saints in an ugly performance. If the Saints win and sweep the season series, don't be stunned if they go on to win the NFC South.
Week 16: Philadelphia @ Dallas: Philly (6-8) and Dallas (8-6) will likely both be in the mix to win the division. A late season clash will go the way of the Cowboys. That loss will prove to be the difference in the Eagles winning the NFC East vs finishing tenth in the NFC and out of the postseason. A true "what-if" moment.
Week 17: Minnesota @ Green Bay: The Vikings (10-5) will have a chance to steal the NFC North and sweep the Packers (9-6) in a late-season clash. That being said, I can't go against Aaron Rodgers at home. Pack wins and eventually steals the division in the final week of the regular season.
Week 17: Miami @ New England: Following Week 12, the Dolphins will be one of the hottest teams in the league at 8-3. It won't be easy after that as three straight road games will prove unfruitful as they quickly drop to 8-6 and see their playoff hopes fade. They'll return home against Green Bay where they'll win an emotional game in OT before traveling to New England (8-7) [already eliminated] who can keep Miami out of the postseason with a win here. In my projection, Mac Jones will outduel Tua Tagovailoa as the Dolphins will see their season come to an end.
Week 18: Arizona @ San Francisco: With the Cardinals (8-8) needing a win in Santa Clara against the already-eliminated 49ers (7-9) to clinch a playoff spot, Trey Lance will light up Arizona's defense, tossing a career-high five touchdowns and eliminating their NFC West foe, giving the Cowboys the final playoff spot.
Week 18: Dallas @ Washington: Deja vu? In 2012, rookie sensation RGIII and the Redskins beat Dallas, knocking them out of the playoffs. Carson Wentz will have his first true "signature" moment as the Commanders make an unexpected run to an NFC East crown. Fortunately for Dallas, the 49ers will do them a favor as they'll backdoor their way into the playoffs as the NFC's seventh seed.
Week 18: Baltimore @ Cincinnati: This will be one of the biggest divisional games in AFC North history and the EXACT reason why NBC's final game of the regular season exists. Massive playoff implications will be on the line. A win gives the Ravens an 11-6 record and a 3 seed in the AFC, eliminating the defending AFC champions. A loss, however, eliminates Baltimore and gives Cincinnati the North at 10-7. In a thriller, the Bengals overcome a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit in overtime to head back to the playoffs. A legacy defining game for Joe Burrow as more questions arise for Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh once again.
Playoff Predictions
AFC Playoff Field:
Buffalo Bills (14-3) [5-1 in NFC West]
Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) [3-3 in AFC West]
Tennessee Titans (10-7) [5-1 in AFC South]
Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) [3-3 in AFC North]
Las Vegas Raiders (11-6) [3-3 in AFC West]
Denver Broncos (11-6) [3-3 in AFC West]
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) [3-3 in AFC West]
NFC Playoff Field:
Los Angeles Rams (12-5) [5-1 in NFC West]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-5) [5-1 in NFC South]
Green Bay Packers (11-6) [5-1 in NFC North]
Washington Commanders (9-8) [3-3 in NFC East]
New Orleans Saints (10-7) [3-3 in NFC South]
Minnesota Vikings (10-7) [3-3 in NFC North]
Dallas Cowboys (9-8) [4-2 in NFC East]
Super Wild Card Round:
#6 Broncos over #3 Titans- I expect a run-heavy, defensive battle between Derrick Henry and Javonte Williams. Ultimately, I'm going to trust the Super Bowl champion Russell Wilson in the clutch. Another disappointing loss in Nashville will start the clock for the Malik Willis era to begin as the "writing on the wall" for Tannehill will become evident. Denver Broncos 20, Tennessee Titans 17
#4 Bengals over #5 Raiders- I believe the Raiders are ready to take the next step. Despite winning the tie-breaker for the fifth seed in the AFC, they'll get a bad draw against the defending AFC Champions. Las Vegas will have revenge on their mind after getting bounced in the Wild Card round by Burrow and Co. last season. However, I believe that Cincinnati's improved offensive line will be the difference as "Who Dey" will be headed to the next round in a four-quarter nailbiter. Cincinnati Bengals 31, Las Vegas Raiders 30
#7 Chargers over #2 Chiefs- This prediction is BOLD considering how disappointing the Chargers can be. In a duel for the ages, Herbert goes into Kansas City and out-duels Mahomes as Los Angeles becomes the first seven seed to win a game in the NFL postseason. Los Angeles Chargers 42, Kansas City Chiefs 39
#5 Saints over #4 Commanders- Washington hasn't won a playoff game since 2006 but could this be the year they finally break through? It'll be a bounce-back season for Washington but the Saints are the more talented team here. Kamara goes buck-wild as the Saints head on to the divisional round. New Orleans Saints 27, Washington Commanders 23
#3 Packers over #6 Vikings- Aaron Rodgers > Kirk Cousins. Sharpie. Since it's a divisional game, it'll be close but the result shouldn't be in question. Green Bay Packers 31, Minnesota Vikings 24
#2 Buccaneers over #7 Cowboys- I fully expect this one to be a high-scoring affair and after both teams face off in Week 1, could there be a major shocker? CeeDee Lamb and Mike Evans respectively should both have insane games. I don't have to think too long about this contest. Until Dallas shows me otherwise, I can't pick them to win a playoff game even though it might not be Dak's fault this time. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35, Dallas Cowboys 25
Divisional Round:
#2 Buccaneers over #3 Packers- Tom Brady's domination of Aaron Rodgers continues. I just don't trust Green Bay in the playoffs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Green Bay Packers 20
#1 Rams over #5 Saints- It'll be a great season for the Saints but against the defending Super Bowl champions, the buck stops here. Winston implodes, throwing two pick-sixes as Los Angeles rides their defense to an easy dub. There will be no W's eaten tonight for Jameis and Co. Los Angeles Rams 34, New Orleans Saints 14
#4 Bengals over #6 Broncos- Second-year cornerback Patrick Surtain II against Ja'Marr Chase will be quite the show to watch and the winner of that battle could be the difference. Russell Wilson will help bring the buzz back to Denver but I think the Bengals are the pick here as they attempt to get redemption. Cincinnati Bengals 27, Denver Broncos 24
#1 Bills over #7 Chargers- In the second-ever matchup between Josh Allen and Justin Herbert, an offensive spectacle should be expected. Although the Chargers defense is much improved, I'm not sure if this warm-weathered dome team can take down THIS number one seed. Herbert gets over the hump and wins his first playoff game but the road ends here as Buffalo pulls away in the second half to advance to their second AFC Championship Game in three years. Buffalo Bills 41, Los Angeles Chargers 27
Conference Championship:
#1 Bills over #4 Bengals- Burrow vs Allen. Get your popcorn ready. In a rematch of the regular season matchup, the Bills will make the adjustments necessary to dethrone the defending AFC Champions and head to their first Super Bowl since 1994. Buffalo Bills 28, Cincinnati Bengals 24
#2 Buccaneers over #1 Rams- This is a true coin-flip game. The Bucs have had some recent struggles against the Rams while Brady has been in Tampa Bay. However, it's pretty tough to go to back-to-back Super Bowls. In one of Brady's most magnificent performances yet, the Bucs will go into LA and punch their ticket to Glendale for the Super Bowl. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35, Los Angeles Rams 31
The future of the NFL quarterback position takes on the undisputed greatest quarterback to ever play professional football. Tom Brady and Josh Allen have faced off against each other once. In 2021, the matchup was a tale of two halves. The Buccaneers raced to a 24-3 halftime lead before Buffalo raced back to tie things up. In overtime, the Buccaneers flexed their muscle as upended the Bills 33-27 in overtime as reserve receiver Breshad Perriman took a short drag route and made magic taking it nearly 60 yards for the touchdown. In the contest, Josh Allen had a fantastic day on the ground, rushing for 109 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries.
In Glendale, the more effective rushing attack could be the key. Everyone knows how good both quarterbacks are and the receivers that will likely come into this game with 1,000 yards on the year but what about the backs? Leonard Fournette is one of the most underrated running backs in the league. After a disappointing tenure in Jacksonville, his role in Tampa Bay has been nearly perfect. For the Bills, rookie James Cook could be a golden fit in this high-octane offense. Expect both to have major roles and keep the defense honest.
In this matchup, expect another thriller. While Buffalo will be the best team all season long and be a strong favorite, I don't think it's smart to underestimate Tom Brady, despite some off-season drama. He came back for a reason: to win. I'm not gonna doubt the G.O.A.T. In what should come as no surprise, Brady engineers his final signature clutch drive to win his eighth Super Bowl title and walks off into the sunset, this time for real to retire a champion. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34, Buffalo Bills 33
Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3rd title in franchise history)
Super Bowl MVP: Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers
NFL Awards
MVP: Josh Allen, QB, Bills
OPOY: Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers
DPOY: Myles Garrett, DE, Browns
OROY: George Pickens, WR, Steelers
DROY: Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Giants
CPOY: Jameis Winston, QB, Saints
Coach of the Year: Dennis Allen, Saints
Fantasy Player of the Year: Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
Breakout Offensive Player: Gabriel Davis, WR, Bills
Breakout Defensive Player: Jordan Davis, DT, Eagles (rookie)
Best Offense: Buffalo Bills
Best Defense: Indianapolis Colts
Haters Gonna Hate (an imaginary award where a highly scrutinized player proves people wrong): Zach Wilson, QB, Jets
Most Improved Team: Denver Broncos
Biggest Surprise: Washington Commanders
Biggest Disappointment: San Francisco 49ers
Team on the Rise: Detroit Lions
Biggest Spoiler: New York Jets
Game of the Year: Bills at Chiefs (Week 6)
Upset of the Year: Jaguars over Broncos (Week 8)
Link to playoff predictions here: https://next.playoffpredictors.com/football/nfl/E597720A-6A59-46FA-B175-23879B5792A5/50678f34-6645-417c-ac2b-036dabd9b734?L=Iw4JlTQ6LH5RIu0o3J+rIfNvJI4-WE9cirRfQyighODO5PG3Wt03dzTpAWRpssVhAAMU6dKA
Bonus: Preseason NFL QB Team Rankings (2022 edition)
Rankings based on postseason success, consistency, "clutchness", and statistics. Potential isn't factored into this rankings. This is a list of where "X player" is RIGHT NOW and not a projection.
Tom Brady, TB- Don't be fooled. At age 45, Brady is still among the NFL's elite after throwing 40+ touchdown passes during his two seasons in Tampa.
Aaron Rodgers, GB- Back-to-back MVP awards and a fantastic TD-INT ratio gives A-Rod the second spot despite recent postseason failures.
Patrick Mahomes, KC- There's not much that needs to be said here. Any list that doesn't have Mahomes in the top five...we're gonna have to have a talk.
Matthew Stafford, LAR- It was Detroit after all. Stafford is clearly an elite quarterback as he elevated the Rams to a Super Bowl title in 2021.
Joe Burrow, CIN- It's splitting hairs here between #4 and #6 but I think the Super Bowl appearance for Burrow gives him an edge over the prolific Allen.
Josh Allen, BUF- This is probably the lowest that you'll see Josh Allen on a quarterback rankings list but that doesn't mean much. I'm super high on Allen as he is a STUD and is a future Hall of Famer.
Russell Wilson, DEN- I'm a bit worried that Wilson has regressed a tad but also not sure if that's Seattle not having enough talent. Regardless, he's still a Super Bowl champion, a consistent playoff participant, and a clutch player. Expect him to return to form with a better supporting cast in Denver.
Justin Herbert, LAC- He's insanely gifted but it's time to win now. Herbert will be an elite quarterback for years to come.
Lamar Jackson, BAL- He's regressed every season since his incredible MVP campaign but I think he'll rebound this year. His mobility is unmatched in the league.
Dak Prescott, DAL- Just because he's on Dallas, he gets unnecessary hate. It's pretty blatant that Prescott is a top ten QB.
Derek Carr, LV- Spots 8-11 are what I call "fringe elite" quarterbacks. They've dominated on the stat sheet but have puzzling performances that proves they have some work to do. With a playoff win, I'd think Carr would rise a few spots by '23.
Deshaun Watson, CLE [suspended*]- It's hard to project where Watson will be on this list as he won't play until Week 13. That's a long layoff, even for a talented QB like Watson.
Kirk Cousins, MIN- He gets too much hate in my mind. You can certainly could do worse. The issue is not performing in primetime games which is why I can't place him any higher.
Kyler Murray, ARI- More consistency is needed but his escape ability and rocket arm is a sight to see.
Ryan Tannehill, TEN- I think Tennessee's recent playoff failures have opened eyes to wonder if Tannehill is the answer. He's not getting any younger and despite being a one seed in 2021, it's hard to envision the Titans making a Super Bowl run with him right now.
Jimmy Garoppolo/Trey Lance, SF- Jimmy G has made a Super Bowl and was a quarter away from playing in his second. He's nothing special but he does enough to get the job done. Lance has more potential but unproven.
Mac Jones, NE- 15, 16, and 17 are what I like to call "game managers" that can occasionally elevate his team's level of play. Jones impressed in his rookie campaign and truly fits the "Patriot Way."
Baker Mayfield, CAR- The former Heisman winner will have a chip on his shoulder when he suits up for the Panthers this fall. He played through injury last year as the Panthers are betting last year was more of an anomaly than a new trend.
Carson Wentz, WAS- I was very surprised when Indy moved on from Wentz last year. He wasn't elite but stayed healthy last year and had a 27:7 touchdown to interception ratio which is REALLY good. He'll definitely improve the Commanders' offense. If he fails, Taylor Heinicke or Sam Howell are very capable of leading this team.
Jalen Hurts, PHI- I'm still 50/50 on Hurts but with A.J. Brown in the fold, he'll be set up to succeed. The Eagles could be SCARY good if he steps up.
Jameis Winston, NO- Coming off an injury, Winston will aim to pick up right where he left off. Cutting down the turnovers will be key to his success.
Matt Ryan, IND- A shell of his former self, I'm not sure if Ryan will be the answer but he still has a bit left in the tank to take a run-focused Colts team to the postseason.
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA- The time is now for Tua to elevate his level of play. He has all the weapons on offense to TAKE OFF.
Jared Goff, DET- The former Super Bowl QB is pretty average but not as bad as many make him out to be. A good bridge guy before Detroit inevitably moves on.
Justin Fields, CHI- He's got a lot of talent but can the Bears' coaching staff maximize his talent before it's too late?
Mitchell Trubisky/Kenny Pickett, PIT- Whoever gets the start here will be set up to succeed. I could see either one of these QBs make a leap up this list by the end of the year. Pickett was considered the most pro-ready QB in the 2022 NFL Draft and has looked great in the preseason. Mitch has shown flashes of being a solid starting QB with a good supporting cast.
Marcus Mariota/Desmond Ridder, ATL- The former number two overall pick (Mariota) and Ridder have a similar skillset that could translate over well with time.
Davis Mills, HOU- As previously mentioned, Mills statistically was the best rookie quarterback. As he heads into the season as the unquestioned starter, a full offseason could help Houston evaluate a "diamond in the rough."
Zach Wilson, NYJ- The BYU product predictably had some rough moments last year but I believe he has potential to SKYROCKET up these rankings with another year of seasoning and a better supporting cast around him.
Trevor Lawrence, JAX- The former Clemson star took his lumps in Year One but has all the physical tools to improve in 2022. He's likely better than the 30th best quarterback in the league but for now, that's where he lies.
Daniel Jones, NYG- It's only a matter of time before Jones is on the outs. Turnover prone quarterbacks won't last long as a starter in this league.
Geno Smith/Drew Lock, SEA- An easy choice for the bottom. These guys are more of backup options than a realistic starting quarterback options.
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