(WACO, TX, September, 5th, 2023)- In just a few days, the official start of the 2023 NFL Regular Season will kick off as the upstart Detroit Lions and Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs rumble at Arrowhead Stadium. I can't wait for professional football to be a part of our lives once again.
What's new in 2023? There are new faces in new places with and high-profile rookies trying to find their way in the league. From the veterans like Derek Carr and Aaron Rodgers to the rookies like Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud, new stories are about to be written. Who will emerge as a sleeper team? Which team will fail to meet expectations? How about a breakout fantasy football star? Let me rub the Magic 8 ball and dive into the predictions.
Before I begin, I would like to be transparent about my predictions from last year. In order to gain your trust, I must also admit where I failed. I was right about several teams but completely swung and missed on some big teams as well. While I nailed the AFC for the most part, the NFC proved to be a difficult conference to decipher.
Top Five Teams I was right about:
Panthers (7-10) -> EXACT | It’s no secret that Carolina is my favorite team. I have a great pulse on their strengths and limitations so being right on the money should come as no surprise.
Ravens (10-7) -> EXACT | The second “perfect” record prediction of 2022. However, I had Baltimore missing the playoffs which knocks down this prediction a tad.
Browns (7-10) -> EXACT | The third “perfect” prediction of 2022. A talented roster with a stopgap QB in Jacoby Brissett. Pretty predictable.
Steelers (9-8) -> EXACT | I guess my AFC North predictions were ON POINT. Mike Tomlin always has Pittsburgh ready to play, no matter the circumstance.
Patriots (9-8) -> 8-9 | New England is stuck. They’re not bad enough to be a bottom five team but they’re not good enough to be a serious contender for a championship. This might be the last season of being decent before they fall off a cliff.
Also within one game: Chargers (11-6) -> 10-7; Dolphins (10-7) -> 9-8
Top Five Teams I was wrong about:
Eagles (8-9) -> 14-3 | Oof. The NFC’s representative in the Super Bowl had me fooled big time.
49ers (8-9) -> 13-4 | To be fair, I was going off the precedent that Trey Lance would be starting at quarterback for a full 17 games. It was clear that Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy were miles ahead of Lance.
Rams (12-5) -> 5-12 | I’m not sure many people had Los Angeles falling off this hard. I guess they really sold their soul for a Super Bowl title.
Raiders (11-6) -> 6-11 | I was high on the Raiders to make another big jump towards contender status. Instead, it looks like Las Vegas is trending to be a middle of the road AFC team for the next few seasons.
Broncos (11-6) -> 5-12 | Broncos Country, Let’s Hide.
AFC teams predicted records within two games: 10 of 16
NFC teams predicted records within two games: 3 of 16
Team-by-Team Analysis
*Confidence is how sure I am of that respective team making the playoffs*
NFC:
1 SEED: Philadelphia Eagles- PROJECTED RECORD | (13-4); Confidence: 99%
Best case: 15-2 record | Worst case: 11-6 record | Team MVP: Jalen Hurts
Redemption season loading? The dreaded Super Bowl hangover has struck several teams but I think the Georgia Bulld…I mean Philadelphia Eagles have too much talent for anything less than a deep playoff run. Philly keeps getting deeper on defense with Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith added in the draft. On offense, new addition D’Andre Swift should flourish in the Eagles run-oriented offense. The hunger of finishing just minutes away from a championship should give Jalen Hurts, Fletcher Cox, A.J. Brown, and the rest of the Eagles the motivation to fly even higher this season.
Biggest win: Week 11 @ Kansas City
Most Surprising Loss: Week 8 @ Washington
2 SEED: San Francisco 49ers- PROJECTED RECORD | (11-6); Confidence: 95%
Best case: 13-4 record | Worst case: 10-7 record | Team MVP: Christian McCaffrey
It doesn’t seem to matter who’s the quarterback for San Francisco. They just win football games. Brock Purdy. Trey Lance. Sam Darnold. This team is making the playoffs...as long as they stay healthy. The 49ers have a top five roster in the league but some of their star players have suffered season-ending injuries in recent memory including Nick Bosa and Christian McCaffrey. Steve Wilks takes over as defensive coordinator as he tries to keep opposing offenses at bay. After two straight NFC Championship losses, is this the year the Bay Area gets to see their team break through?
Biggest win: Week 12 @ Seattle
Most Surprising Loss: Week 17 @ Washington
3 SEED: Detroit Lions- PROJECTED RECORD | (10-7); Confidence: 60%
Best Case: 12-5 record; Worst case: 7-10 record | Team MVP: Jared Goff
Can the momentum from last year’s 8-2 finish to the season power Detroit back to the playoffs? I’m going to hesitantly buy the hype of the Lions this season. What could go wrong, right? Detroit has NEVER won the NFC North. The last time they won their division? 1993 when it was called the NFC Central. Jared Goff had a masterful season in 2022, passing for nearly 4,500 yards with an impressive 29:7 TD-INT ratio. Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown will lead the passing game with David Montgomery and draft pick Jahmyr Gibbs taking turns on the ground. The defense will need to improve drastically as rookie Jack Campbell and second-year pro Aidan Hutchinson attempt to restore the roar in the Motor City.
Biggest win: Week 18 vs Minnesota
Most Surprising Loss: Week 4 @ Green Bay
4 SEED: Carolina Panthers- PROJECTED RECORD | (9-8); Confidence: 55%
Best Case: 10-7 record; Worst case: 6-11 record | Team MVP: Bryce Young
Here’s my first “surprise” pick. The NFC South is WIDE OPEN this season. With Tom Brady out of the division, it’s anyone’s for the taking. Carolina finally has their signal-caller of the future as former Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young enters the fold. The price to pay for the Panthers was their star receiver D.J. Moore, who was sent to Chicago for the first overall pick in April. However, Carolina has reloaded with free-agent acquisitions Adam Thielen and Miles Sanders on offense. Assuming head coach Frank Reich’s coaching staff is an upgrade from Matt Rhule’s disastrous tenure, a slight improvement from 7 wins in 2022 should be expected. In this division, that should be enough to reach the postseason.
Biggest win: Week 2 vs New Orleans
Most Surprising Loss: Week 16 vs Green Bay
5 SEED: Dallas Cowboys- PROJECTED RECORD | (10-7); Confidence: 70%
Best Case: 12-5 record; Worst case: 9-8 record | Team MVP: Micah Parsons
Can Big D finally make a postseason run? They certainly have the talent but do they have the confidence? QB Dak Prescott will need to cut down on the turnovers for this offense to truly thrive. Dallas should have one of the best offenses in the league. CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup will continue to excel with offseason acquisition Brandin Cooks forming a solid core of pass catchers. In the backfield, Tony Pollard broke out in 2022 with 1,007 yards and 9 touchdowns. He’ll take the number one role from Ezekiel Elliott who signed with New England. Kansas State’s Deuce Vaughn could take a change-of-pace role alongside Pollard. With a top-ten defense, led by Micah Parsons, anything less than a divisional round appearance would be a major disappointment for this team.
Biggest win: Week 13 vs Seattle
Most Surprising Loss: Week 16 @ Miami
6 SEED: Minnesota Vikings- PROJECTED RECORD | (9-7-1); Confidence: 55%
Best Case: 12-5 record; Worst case: 8-9 record | Team MVP: Justin Jefferson
Last chance for Minnesota to make a run? I’m a little nervous about this pick for several reasons, the biggest being the lack of direction this team is headed in. Kirk Cousins is in his final year of his contract with no talks of an extension on the horizon. Star pass rusher Danielle Hunter is on the trade block. Releasing productive players like Dalvin Cook and Patrick Peterson was equally as surprising for a team that went 13-4 last season. However, that stellar record masked several flaws as Minnesota may see their “close game luck” turn into “close game L’s” in 2023. That being said, this pass-happy offense should be able to do enough in a weak division to sneak back into the playoffs.
Biggest win: Week 16 vs Detroit
Most Surprising Loss: Week 8 @ Green Bay
7 SEED: New Orleans Saints- PROJECTED RECORD | (9-8); Confidence: 55%
Best Case: 11-6 record; Worst case: 7-10 record | Team MVP: Derek Carr
Two NFC South teams in the playoffs? You better believe it! Derek Carr is hoping a change of scenery can change the narrative on his career. He'll need to establish more consistency in his game in order to see sustained success in the Big Easy. Chris Olave will take over as the number one receiver and perhaps Michael Thomas can finally get his act together and stay on the field. Star running back Alvin Kamara was suspended for the first three games of the regular season due to personal misconduct in a Vegas nightclub. New Orleans has an underrated defense as their core staples of Cameron Jordan, Marshon Lattimore, and Demario Davis are still playing at a high level. Expect the Saints to get back to the playoffs either as division champs or one of the last wild cards.
Biggest win: Week 18 vs Atlanta
Most Surprising Loss: Week 8 @ Indianapolis
Bubble (any of these squads could make it in the field and I wouldn’t be surprised)
8 SEED: Seattle Seahawks- PROJECTED RECORD | (9-8)- Last year proved that Pete Carroll is still an elite head coach. Literally no one on planet Earth expected Geno Smith to become one of the top quarterbacks in the NFC. Seattle drafted former Ohio State receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba to form a three-headed monster with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The concern lies with the defense. I'm a fan of former Illinois cornerback Devon Witherspoon and he'll give a boost to the secondary. Due to parody of the league, the Seahawks could be a candidate to be on the wrong of the bubble.
9 SEED: New York Giants- PROJECTED RECORD | (8-9)- Superb coaching was the difference between five wins and nine wins for this team. Brian Daboll brought a toughness that the Giants needed. The defense should be solid but I'm still nervous about the offense outside of Saquon Barkley. They played in several close games in '22 so I'm thinking a slight regression has Big Blue just outside the playoff picture.
Others: (“rebuilding,” too many roster holes, or too inconsistent)
10 SEED: Chicago Bears- PROJECTED RECORD | (7-9-1)- Is this the year for Justin Fields to light the league ablaze? The Bears had one of the worst defenses in the league which is abnormal considering their franchise's history. If they can't stop anyone, they don't have much of a prayer. Chicago should have a top five rushing attack with the rushing prowess of Fields, Khalil Herbert, D’Onta Foreman, and rookie Roschon Johnson. The passing attack got a big boost with D.J. Moore being added to the mix. I think the Monsters of the Midway are a year away from being a playoff contender but it seems their roster is trending in the right direction under general manager Ryan Poles.
11 SEED: Los Angeles Rams- PROJECTED RECORD | (7-10)- Los Angeles really sold their soul to win the Super Bowl. The offense fell off BIG TIME. They have Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford and not much else on offense. Outside of Aaron Donald on defense, they might be even worse on that side of the ball. They'll win enough games to be decent but I don't see the Rams as a true threat for the foreseeable future.
12 SEED: Washington Commanders- PROJECTED RECORD | (7-10)- Washington has potential to be the surprise of not just the NFC East but the entire NFL. However, a lot of potential has to turn into a viable product for Ron Rivera to keep his job. The offense will have a changing of the guard as former Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. We’ve seen what he did with a generational talent like Patrick Mahomes. Now, what can he do with the kid from UNC? If Howell plays well, a calculated gamble turns into the quarterback of the future. If he flops, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, or Michael Penix, Jr. will be available in next year’s draft. Win-win for the future of the Commanders.
13 SEED: Green Bay Packers- PROJECTED RECORD | (6-11)- All you need is a little Love. Well…the Packers are banking on Jordan Love to pick up right where Aaron Rodgers left off. Learning under a future Hall of Famer could pay dividends. I’m just not sure it will be this year. The Pack have tough games against the AFC West division and the NFC North is as strong as they've ever been. A dependency on their defense and the run game is a must to have success in the win column.
14 SEED: Atlanta Falcons- PROJECTED RECORD | (5-12)- Atlanta is a trendy pick to win the NFC South but their success in 2023 depends on one man: Desmond Ridder. Is he really the answer in the ATL? I’m not sure. He certainly has the weapons to make a push towards the playoffs. Rookie running back Bijan Robinson is “bust-proof” alongside Tyler Allgeier on the ground. Through the air, Ridder will have former first-round picks Kyle Pitts and Drake London at his disposal. The defense added some pieces like Jessie Bates and Jeff Okudah but I'm still concerned about the overall unit's effectiveness.
15 SEED: Tampa Bay Buccaneers- PROJECTED RECORD | (3-14)- Tampa’s offense was lifeless for the majority of 2022 and that was WITH Tom Brady at quarterback. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are among the league’s best receivers but they don’t have much else. The Bucs are hoping that former Heisman winner Baker Mayfield’s late-season surge with the Rams is a sign of things to come with the Buccaneers.
16 SEED: Arizona Cardinals- PROJECTED RECORD | (2-15)- Quarterback Kyler Murray will miss at least half the season with a torn ACL he suffered on December 12th, 2022. Considering the Cardinals slim chances of making the playoffs this year, it might be better to hold him out as long as possible. This team is going nowhere except last place in the NFC West.
AFC:
1 SEED: Kansas City Chiefs- PROJECTED RECORD | (13-4); Confidence: 99%
Best case: 15-2 record | Worst case: 11-6 record | Team MVP: Patrick Mahomes
The newest NFL’s dynasty is here. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs aren’t going anywhere and that includes their perch atop the AFC. No Tyreek Hill? No problem. As long as Travis Kelce is healthy, Mahomes can throw to virtually anyone and be successful. It won't be easy for Andy Reid's Chiefs to repeat as the AFC is a gauntlet like never seen before. Are you going to bet against them though? I won't. An AFC Championship appearance is likely their floor.
Biggest win: Week 17 vs Cincinnati
Most Surprising Loss: Week 12 @ Las Vegas
2 SEED: Cincinnati Bengals- PROJECTED RECORD | (13-4); Confidence: 98%
Best case: 14-3 record | Worst case: 11-6 record | Team MVP: Joe Burrow
The Bengals were just a couple of plays away from changing the narrative about the king in the AFC. The team best equipped to remove the Chiefs atop the AFC is the Cincinnati Bengals. Joe Burrow is simply that guy. The offense will be top five once again with Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon, and Tyler Boyd dominating the competition. The Bengals lost two veteran safeties in Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell leaving in free agency. The hope is rookie Daxton Hill can fill the gap. Their biggest pickup was Orlando Brown, Jr. to help protect Burrow's blindside. If the defense and offensive line is above-average, this will be a tough team to slow down.
Biggest win: Week 8 @ San Francisco
Most Surprising Loss: Week 4 @ Tennessee
3 SEED: Buffalo Bills- PROJECTED RECORD | (13-4); Confidence: 98%
Best case: 13-4 record | Worst case: 10-7 record | Team MVP: Josh Allen
It was clear Buffalo wasn't quite the same team without coach Brian Daboll at the helm. Josh Allen regressed in 2022 and went back to his reckless tendencies as we saw early on in his career. In order for the Bills to make a push to the Super Bowl, they must establish a viable, consistent rushing attack to alleviate the pressure off Allen's shoulders. James Cook and Damien Harris could be the key to breakthrough campaign. Buffalo sports one of the most tenacious defenses in the league. They'll need to generate more pressure on the quarterback than ever against the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes this season. Divisional Round appearances aren't good enough at this point. It's Super Bowl or bust.
Biggest win: Week 15 vs Dallas
Most Surprising Loss: Week 11 vs New York Jets
4 SEED: Jacksonville Jaguars- PROJECTED RECORD | (9-8); Confidence: 85%
Best case: 13-4 record | Worst case: 10-7 record | Team MVP: Trevor Lawrence
See what great coaching can do? Trevor Lawrence is set to TAKE OFF after his incredible second-half surge of 2022. A divisional round appearance was stunning considering where they were just a year ago, picking number one in the draft. The Jags were already solid at pass catcher with Zay Jones, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram. Enter the return of Calvin Ridley, suspended in 2022 due to gambling, could take this offense to another level. Jacksonville is almost a lock at the playoffs due to being in the worst division in football.
Biggest win: Week 13 vs Cincinnati
Most Surprising Loss: Week 12 @ Houston
5 SEED: New York Jets- PROJECTED RECORD | (11-6); Confidence: 65%
Best case: 12-5 record | Worst case: 8-9 record | Team MVP: Aaron Rodgers
The all-hype team of the offseason is under the New York spotlight. Can they handle the heat? The headliner of Aaron Rodgers is hoping to deliver an aerial show that hasn’t been seen in decades. With A-Rod under center, expect receiver Garrett Wilson Assuming the Jets maintain a top-five defense, it’s a fool-proof team. Gang Green has the strongest trio of backs in the country featuring Breece Hall, Dalvin Cook, and Michael Carter serving as their three-headed monster. While I’m not buying this team as a Super Bowl contender like several pundits are, New York should at least win enough games to reach the postseason for the first time since the 2011 season.
Biggest win: Week 1 vs Buffalo
Most Surprising Loss: Week 17 @ Cleveland
6 SEED: Miami Dolphins- PROJECTED RECORD | (11-6); Confidence: 65%
Best case: 12-5 record | Worst case: 8-9 record | Team MVP: Tua Tagovailoa
Miami should be playoff bound again with one of the strongest rosters in the league. The AFC East might be the best division so finishing third isn't a cause for concern when you still win double digit games and make the playoffs. Tagovailoa has participated in Jiu-Jitsu classes during the offseason to learn how to avoid future concussions. The biggest offseason acquisition, cornerback Jalen Ramsey, will miss the start of the season after suffering a minor knee injury. They still have Xavien Howard who will hold down the fort until he returns. A divisional round appearance would be a success for this rising squad.
Biggest win: Week 7 @ Philadelphia
Most Surprising Loss: Week 13 @ Washington
7 SEED: Baltimore Ravens- PROJECTED RECORD | (11-6); Confidence: 70%
Best case: 12-5 record | Worst case: 9-8 record | Team MVP: Lamar Jackson
Lamar rightfully got the BAG this offseason. Now, he must prove he can stay healthy. The offense is revamped with Odell Beckham, Jr. and rookie Zay Flowers joining the team. It's no secret that Baltimore loves running the football but having two dynamic pass catchers could help Jackson return to his MVP form. The Ravens are in a great position for a playoff berth and if they can handle their division, an AFC North title isn't out of the question either.
Biggest win: Week 18 vs Pittsburgh
Most Surprising Loss: Week 12 @ Los Angeles Chargers
Bubble (any of these squads could make it in the field and I wouldn’t be surprised)
8 SEED: Los Angeles Chargers- PROJECTED RECORD | (10-7)- A really talented team is going to be left out in the cold. Based on the history of head coach Brandon Staley, I’m not banking on Los Angeles to buck their recent trend of choking. They have a wealth of talent including Justin Herbert, Joey Bosa, and Austin Ekeler. The biggest issue is finding a way to not lay an egg in the season's biggest moments. Until I see otherwise, they're on the outside looking in.
9 SEED: Pittsburgh Steelers- PROJECTED RECORD | (9-8)- The Steelers have a roster that is playoff caliber and I won't be surprised to see them with double-digit wins. Similar to the Chargers' fate, they will be a victim of a jam-packed AFC. Kenny Pickett is ready to take the next step in his development as he's excelled in both the offseason and preseason. The Steelers defense, led by T.J. Watt, will keep them in virtually every game. Veteran Patrick Peterson enters the fold at cornerback to go alongside Minkah Fitzpatrick at safety. Pittsburgh should be in contention until the very end.
10 SEED: Cleveland Browns- PROJECTED RECORD | (8-9)- Is Deshaun Watson washed or just rusty? We’ll find out in short order. Cleveland's ceiling and floor is a bit of a mystery until we see a full sample size of Watson on the field. The Browns have an underrated offense featuring Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Elijah Moore (acquired via trade from NYJ). I just really hope Nick Chubb doesn’t waste his career away without seeing some true playoff success. Last place in the division is the most likely scenario for the Browns...yet again.
11 SEED: New England Patriots- PROJECTED RECORD | (7-10)- Last stand for Bill Belichick and Co? If the Patriots make the playoffs in 2023, Belichick will have to pull off his best coaching performance yet. Quarterback Mac Jones can’t carry this team on his back but maybe he won’t need to. The duo of Ezekiel Elliott and Rhamondre Stevenson will keep New England’s division rivals on their toes. If the defense can reach elite status, perhaps nine or ten wins is attainable.
12 SEED: Tennessee Titans- PROJECTED RECORD | (7-10)- Ryan Tannehill. Malik Willis. Will Levis. Sounds like a recipe for a losing record. The Titans have been stuck in "good but not great” territory for the last few years. Tennessee is a team that needs a Caleb Williams or Drake Maye in the 2024 Draft but likely won't be bad enough to get either one. Being in "no mans's land" is a bad place to be. This offseason was quite strange for me to truly predict where this team will end up. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins shows they aren’t throwing in the towel. They might be the second best team in the AFC South but is that really anything to write home about?
13 SEED: Denver Broncos- PROJECTED RECORD | (7-10)- Can Sean Payton prove that coaching was the main issue in Denver? Russell Wilson will try to rebound from his worst season as a pro. Running back Javonte Williams returns from a nasty knee injury and provided he's healthy, add another dimension to this offense. They'll be counting on Patrick Surtain II, who's become a top five cornerback, to slow down the dynamic receivers of the AFC West.
14 SEED: Las Vegas Raiders- PROJECTED RECORD | (7-10)- Is Jimmy G an upgrade from Derek Carr? It seems to be more of the same in Vegas. The offense should be above average with Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams. The defense…ehhhh. A work in progress. I am a big fan of the Maxx Crosby-Tyree Wilson duo at defensive end. I wouldn't want to be under center with those two running at me each play.
15 SEED: Houston Texans- PROJECTED RECORD | (6-11)- Houston is still going to struggle as a team but the selections of C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson, Jr. as franchise cornerstones is a step in the right direction. They've done a lot to improve their roster, adding tight end Dalton Schultz, linebacker Denzel Perryman and safety Jimmie Ward in free agency. The Texans are a team I'd much rather face in the early weeks than Week 15 or 16 when the team starts to gel.
16 SEED: Indianapolis Colts- PROJECTED RECORD | (5-12)- I feel like Anthony Richardson is either going to the Hall of Fame or will be out of the league in five years. The ultimate boom or bust player is taking the reins for Week 1. Indy won’t be awful this year but looking at the rosters of the other 15 AFC teams, it’s hard to see them picking up many wins. This will be a trial-by-fire type of season where expectations won't be high.
Notable Season Trends
Chiefs start 7-0
Eagles start 6-0
Cardinals start 0-9; clinch first pick in 2024 NFL Draft
Cowboys start 4-0
Bills start 7-1
Bengals start 10-1
Jets win 8 of 9 following BYE week
Seahawks win final four games
Giants win 5 out of final 6 games
Saints win 6 of final 7 games
Dolphins win 4 of final 5 games
Top 5 Games of 2023-2024
Bengals vs Chiefs- A rematch of the 2023 AFC Championship. Every Joe Burrow-Patrick Mahomes matchup has been close and this one should be no different.
Bills vs Jets (Week 1)- Monday Night Football for the season opener. One of these teams has a chance to set the tone in the AFC East.
Bills vs Chiefs- I don't think the Bills want to drop to third fiddle in the AFC behind the Bengals and the Chiefs. This is their opportunity to prove they aren't falling behind.
Chiefs vs Eagles- Super Bowl rematch? Yes, please! Emotions will be running high in this contest.
49ers vs Eagles- An NFC Championship rematch. With a fully healthy Niners squad, can they prove their loss was just a result of unfortunate circumstances?
Most Consequential Games of the 2023-2024 Season
*based on my predictions
Week 1: Dolphins over Chargers- The opening weekend doesn't make-or-break a team's season in most cases. In retrospect, the loser of this matchup may have wished for a do-over. In a tight AFC, this game ultimately get Miami into the postseason...and have the Chargers on the outside looking in.
Week 11: Jaguars over Titans- Last season, the Titans seemed to be the de-facto winner of the AFC West until the Jags closed the season with five straight wins to steal the division. Most see Jacksonville making the playoffs with ease. If they fall into complacency due to playing in a subpar division, perhaps a lurking team could catch them napping. I don't see Tennessee making the playoffs but a Mike Vrabel led team isn't going to throw in the towel. They'll find a way to be in the AFC South playoff chase for a large majority of the 2023 season. With only two games separating these teams in my predictions, a Titans win would give them the division crown at 8-9.
Week 12 & 14: Seahawks vs 49ers- The NFC West will likely be a two-team race between San Francisco and Seattle. I have the 49ers sweeping the Seahawks this year, which will be the difference in who wins this division. If Seattle is able to win at least one of these matchups, it may be what they need to get back to the postseason.
Week 13: Cowboys over Seahawks- One game can make all the difference and the Seahawks will learn that the hard way. A win here would ultimately give them a 10-7 record and bump them up all the way to the 5 seed, knocking Dallas out of the postseason. Because they lose this game, they'll end up as the eighth seed and watching the playoffs at home. Tough.
Week 17: Chiefs over Bengals- Battle for the AFC's top seed late in the season? It's very possible that once again, it could come down to these electric passers dueling in a high stakes matchup. With the game being in Arrowhead Stadium, I gave the nod to Kansas City but it'll come down to the fourth quarter as always.
Week 18: Ravens over Steelers- Sunday Night Football in the final game of the regular season. The winner goes to the playoffs and the loser goes home. The NFL scriptwriters have done it again. The home-field advantage is the tiebreaker in my eyes as John Harbaugh's Ravens edges out Mike Tomlin's Steelers for yet another classic game in this historic rivalry.
Week 18: Lions over Vikings- The Lions would have clinched a playoff spot in Week 17, alleviating the pressure off the team. However, this game is for the division crown, a feat the Lions haven't accomplished in 30 years. In front of the Ford Field faithful, Aidan Hutchinson forces a Kirk Cousins fumble on the game's final drive to seal Detroit's first ever NFC North title. Bring 'em their hat and t-shirt.
Playoff Predictions:
AFC Playoff Field:
#1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)
#2. Cincinnati Bengals (13-4)
#3. Buffalo Bills (12-5)
#4. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)
#5. New York Jets (11-6)
#6. Miami Dolphins (11-6)
#7. Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
NFC Playoff Field:
#1. Philadelphia Eagles (13-4)
#2. San Francisco 49ers (11-6)
#3. Detroit Lions (10-7)
#4. Carolina Panthers (9-8)
#5. Dallas Cowboys (10-7)
#6. Minnesota Vikings (9-7-1)
#7. New Orleans Saints (9-8)
Wild Card Round:
Betting on Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs has proven to be a dangerous game. Yet, here I am predicting a road win for a team that hasn't won a playoff game in 12 years. Will I regret this selection? Jets over Jaguars 28-24
A rematch of last year's Wild Card thriller. Miami's familiarity with Buffalo and the motivation from last year's playoff defeat could force them to be a tough out. Expect another narrow finish either way. Bills over Dolphins 23-20
A second-straight Wild Card rematch. The Ravens had no business taking the Bengals down to the wire with a backup QB but they gave it their all. A toss-up that goes the way of the home team. Bengals over Ravens 27-26
Making the playoffs would be a huge win for Carolina. The Cowboys offensive firepower will end this Cinderella season for Frank Reich's Panthers. Cowboys over Panthers 31-17
Expect a lower-scoring game with two solid defenses on the gridiron. I could potentially see an upset here but I'll take the elite coach of Kyle Shanahan to deliver the goods. 49ers over Saints 24-14
Detroit will need to be careful of not celebrating for too long. After beating Minnesota in Week 18, they'll do it again in even a more impressive fashion, winning their first playoff game since 1991. Lions over Vikings 41-27
Divisional Round:
Here's the shocker of the playoffs. Detroit will be playing with "house money" after making the playoffs, winning the division, and winning a playoff game. Yes, you heard it right. the Detroit Lions are going to the NFC Championship. Lions over 49ers 30-24
A nail-biter of a finish. Evan McPherson hits a game-winning field goal to send Cincinnati to their third-straight AFC Championship Game. Bengals over Bills 31-29
Dak Prescott isn't beating this talented Eagles defense in the playoffs on the road. There's zero shot. Eagles over Cowboys 35-24
Kansas City has made the AFC Championship for the last five seasons. They'll make it six with a win over Aaron Rodgers and Co. I ain't betting against Mahomes at home very often. Chiefs over Jets 24-10
Conference Championship:
For the third season in a row, the AFC Championship will feature Cincinnati and Kansas City for a trip to the big game. Joe Burrow-Patrick Mahomes may be the new Manning-Brady. Flip a coin on who wins this one. I say Coach Zac Taylor makes some corrections in their Week 17 loss to Kansas City. The Bengals advance to their second Super Bowl in the last three seasons. Bengals over Chiefs 27-24
Detroit will put up an offensive clinic but it'll be their below-average defense that ultimately lets them down. There's no stopping Jalen Hurts in route to a second consecutive Super Bowl appearance. Eagles over Lions 45-41
Super Bowl 58: Cincinnati Bengals vs Philadelphia Eagles
The last two Super Bowl runner-ups get another opportunity to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. It's unfortunate that one of these teams has to lose but only one team gets to taste glory.
Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will have their hands full with a talented Eagles secondary. This may be a game where Joe Burrow will have to rely on the quick passing game as holding the ball for too long may causes issues, like it did in his last Super Bowl performance against the Rams. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts could have another electric performance as this RPO oriented offense will be tough for the Bengals defense to stop.
It's clear to me who's the better team here. The most complete roster in the league gets redemption and Philadelphia wins their second Super Bowl in franchise history. Philadelphia Eagles 28, Cincinnati Bengals 24
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles (2nd title in franchise history)
Super Bowl MVP: Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles
NFL Awards
MVP: Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals
OPOY: Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets
DPOY: Micah Parsons, DE, Cowboys
OROY: Bryce Young, QB, Panthers
DROY: Will McDonald IV, DE, Jets
CPOY: Damar Hamlin, S, Bills
Coach of the Year: Dan Campbell, Lions
Fantasy Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers
Breakout Offensive Player: Kenny Pickett, QB, Steelers
Breakout Defensive Player: Daxton Hill, S, Bengals
Best Offense: Kansas City Chiefs
Best Defense: Philadelphia Eagles
Haters Gonna Hate (an imaginary award where a highly scrutinized player proves people wrong): Derek Carr, Saints
Most Improved Team: New York Jets
Biggest Surprise: Carolina Panthers
Biggest Disappointment: Denver Broncos
Team on the Rise: Houston Texans
Biggest Spoiler: Washington Commanders
Game of the Year: Chiefs vs Bengals (Week 17)
Upset of the Year: Commanders over Eagles (Week 8)
Bonus: Preseason NFL QB Team Rankings (2023 edition)
My rankings are based on postseason success, consistency, "clutchness,"and statistics. The word "potential" isn't factored into these rankings. This is a list of where "X player" is RIGHT NOW and not a projection.
THE G.O.A.T.
#1. Patrick Mahomes [Last Year: 3]- All-Pro. League MVP. Super Bowl MVP. Magician. The undisputed best quarterback of the NFL. Any questions?
The Best of the Best
#2. Joe Burrow [Last Year: 5]- Joe Cool is set for another phenomenal season. He's proven to have the clutch gene and excel in big games so early in his career. His next goal? A Super Bowl title.
#3. Josh Allen [Last Year: 6]- The Madden Cover star has some trouble with reckless turnovers last season but he's still one of the league's dynamic talents.
#4. Jalen Hurts, PHI [Last Year: 20]- It was a dream season for the Eagles as they saw Hurts elevate himself to superstar quarterback in just his third season with Philadelphia.
#5. Aaron Rodgers, NYJ [Last Year: 2]- Rodgers can cement his legacy by taking the Jets to new heights.
#6. Lamar Jackson, BAL [Last Year: 9]- Action Jackson has something to prove after getting paid in the offseason. The disrespect needs to stop with Lamar but the injury concerns are valid.
#7. Justin Herbert, LAC [Last Year: 8]- Herbert has become an elite QB in short order. Now, he must take the next step and win a playoff game.
#8. Trevor Lawrence, JAX [Last Year: 30]- See what having a competent head coach can do for your career? Lawrence owes Doug Pederson a debt of gratitude for saving him from the incompetence that was Urban Meyer.
Flashes of Brilliance
#9. Dak Prescott, DAL [Last Year: 10]- Has Prescott reached his ceiling as a quarterback? Interceptions have become a major concern for Dak.
#10. Kirk Cousins, MIN [Last Year: 13]- Could this be Captain Kirk’s last season in Minnesota? He's still a top flight QB but time could be running out for his story as a Viking.
#11. Jared Goff, DET [Last Year: 24]- Goff had his best season since his Super Bowl run with LA. The true test is putting it together for another season.
#12. Matthew Stafford, LAR [Last Year: 4]- An injury-riddled season plagued Stafford in route to a Super Bowl hangover. Outside of Cooper Kupp, this offense is a far cry from where it was a year ago.
#13. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA [Last Year: 23]- If he can stay healthy, Tua should continue to ascend. Each year, he's taken strides towards being a long-term answer at QB for Miami.
#14. Kyler Murray, ARI [Last Year: 14]- Murray has had his ups-and-downs during his Cardinals tenure. We likely won't learn too much about him in '23 as he continues to recover from a torn ACL.
#15. Geno Smith, SEA [Last Year: 32]- The 2022 Comeback Player of the Year deserves his props. You don't see a late-career renaissance very often.
#16. Derek Carr, NO [Last Year: 11]- A new change of scenery should do Carr wonders as he attempts to resurrect his career.
#17. Russell Wilson, DEN [Last Year: 7]- The most disappointing team in 2022 was easily the Broncos. It was shocking to see how poorly Wilson played last year. Perhaps, head coach Sean Payton can turn everything around.
Does Their Job
#18. Jimmy Garoppolo, LV [Last Year: 16]- Jimmy G should provide stability and consistency for Las Vegas but a lofty ceiling for another Super Bowl isn't likely.
#19. Daniel Jones, NYG [Last Year: 31]- Boy was I wrong about Daniel Jones. The power of elite coaching can save careers. Jones looks to show consistency and have another solid season in ‘23.
#20. Deshaun Watson, CLE [Last Year: 12]- Watson was predictably rusty in his return back to the NFL. With a full offseason and drama subsiding, it will be interesting to see if the former Texan can regain his status as an elite quarterback. Until I see otherwise, he drops to the mid-tier.
#21. Justin Fields, CHI [Last Year: 25]- Many are predicting that Fields will take the next step in his development and become an unstoppable force in the league. I'm willing to bet he'll continue to improve in Year 3.
#22. Mac Jones, NE [Last Year: 17]- Belichick's noncommittal approach to Jones as a starter can't be great for confidence. In his third season, Big Mac must improve or else...
#23. Brock Purdy, SF [Last Year: NR]- Coming out of NOWHERE is Mr. Irrelevant, showing every draft pick matters. He's made Trey Lance an afterthought in San Francisco.
#24. Ryan Tannehill, TEN [Last Year: 15]- The Tannehill era is coming to an end in Tennessee. It’s not a matter of “if?” but “when?” He’s a serviceable starter and will help the Titans from being horrible but being stuck in mediocrity is a place no one wants to be.
Young and Dumb
#25. Kenny Pickett, PIT [Last Year: 26]- Pickett is a quarterback that I could see ascend up this ranking in quick order. He's efficient and fast with the football. His first full season as a starter could be a dynamic one.
#26. Baker Mayfield, TB [Last Year: 18]- It’s clear that Mayfield is a bottom-tier starter at best. He was horrible with Carolina and decent with the LA Rams. This is Baker's last chance to show he belongs.
#27. Jordan Love, GB [Last Year: NR]- It's a big unknown with Love in '23. He's looked decent during his limited action on the field. We'll see if he's the real deal or if Green Bay's gamble was just a wasted draft pick.
#28. Desmond Ridder, ATL [Last Year: 27]- I like this new wave of teams giving their mid-round quarterback a chance to shine. The Texans did with Davis Mills, the 49ers are doing it with Brock Purdy, and now the Falcons are seeing what Ridder has in the tank.
#29. Sam Howell, WAS [Last Year: NR]- The Commanders are taking a sizable gamble in riding with Howell for 2023. Much of that faith is being based off his college production plus an electrifying start in Week 18 against Dallas. With offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy entering the fold, Howell could be set up nicely for a breakout season.
#30. Bryce Young, CAR [Last Year: NR]- This generation’s Drew Brees? While not the ideal size, Young’s intelligence and intangibles could help him become a star in short order.
#31. C.J. Stroud, HOU [Last Year: NR]- Stroud's college production was undeniable. A clear upgrade from Mills, the former Ohio State phenom will attempt to buck the trend of OSU QBs flopping in the league.
#32. Anthony Richardson, IND [Last Year: NR]- Rookies are automatically placed at the bottom of this list. The former Gator has all the physical tools to be a star in this league. I’m excited to see him take the field and see if he can reach his potential.
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