WACO, TX (September 2nd, 2024)- The dawn of a new NFL season is among us. The Kansas City Chiefs did something that hadn't been done since the 2004 New England Patriots: winning back-to-back Super Bowl titles. It's up to the rest of the league to do everything they can to knock them off their perch.
In 2024, we will see the new "Dynamic Kickoff" rule that was first used in the Spring XFL league. From what I've seen in the preseason, it doesn't look quite right. The point is to increase safety with regards to player collisions and reduce the number of the concussions on special teams. I'm intrigued to see the results after this trial run.
This year, the NFL will feature new faces in new places. Kirk Cousins (ATL), Russell Wilson (PIT), Saquon Barkley (PHI), Josh Jacobs (GB), and Derrick Henry (BAL) all have new beginnings. Of course, we have electric rookies that will try and win the hearts of fans craving for hope for the present...and the future. Perhaps the likes of Bears' QB Caleb Williams or Commanders' QB Jayden Daniels can give two long-suffering teams a true franchise passer.
As always, I want my readers to keep me accountable and so you'll see my best (and worst) predictions of the 2023 season before we dive into a fresh new year of projecting who will take home the Lombardi Trophy.
Top Five Teams I was "right" about:
Seahawks (9-8 projected record) -> EXACT | Seattle was fortunate to avoid the dreaded "rebuilding" years with the emergence of Geno Smith's late career renaissance keeping them afloat. The biggest issue is that they seem to be stuck in neutral. Fighting for a first-round exit in the Wild Card round isn't the goal in the NFL but that figures to be their destiny at least for another season or two.
Saints (9-8) -> EXACT | New Orleans is that team with a low ceiling but a high floor. They won't have a top ten draft pick, but they're not Super Bowl contenders either. With the NFC South for the taking, I figured they'd be in the mix for a playoff spot but would be wildly inconsistent, as is the rest of the division.
Dolphins (11-6) -> EXACT | Miami is a quality regular season team and have become a staple in the AFC playoffs. Tua has improved each year, leading to his four-year, $212 million contract.
Bears (7-9-1) -> 7-10 | The Justin Fields experiment is over in Chicago. There were some dynamic moments and some low ones. Ultimately, the inconsistency and the imminent possibility of having to pay Fields $40+ million a year made the Bears choose the cheaper option in drafting USC's Caleb Williams.
Lions (10-7) -> 12-5 | There is gamble in projecting a team winning a division title when they haven't done so since the 90s. Detroit did exactly that, going 12-5 and winning the NFC North for the first time in franchise history. Not only that, but I had the bold prediction of placing the Lions in the NFC Championship Game. The future is bright in the Motor City.
Top Five Teams I was "wrong" about:
Panthers (9-8 projected record) -> 2-15 actual record | Last year's Houston Texans is what I envisioned the Panthers would be in 2023. Not only did the Panthers fail to make the playoffs but they finished with the worst record in the league. Adding fuel to the fire, Bryce Young and the offense was completely inept, leading to the mid-season firing of former head coach Frank Reich.
Chargers (10-7) -> 5-12 | Another year, another Chargers disappointment. I really think Los Angeles is cursed. A team can only take but so much punishment. Injuries did play a part in their demise but it's still really sad.
Colts (5-12) -> 9-8 | I didn't expect much from Indianapolis in 2023 but Anthony Richardson gave the Colts a spark at the beginning of the season before he suffered a season-ending injury. Gardner Minshew came in and was a drive away from sending the Colts to the playoffs.
Jets (11-6) -> 7-10 | Most people struck out on this pick. Aaron Rodgers' running out with the American flag right before Monday Night Football might have been the most epic scene of the season. The excitement was short-lived as on Rodgers' first drive, he suffered a season-ending Achilles tear, effectively ending the Jets' season along with his.
Texans (6-11) -> 10-7 | I expected Houston to have a semi-competitive season and upset a few teams here and there. Making it to the playoffs and winning a playoff game was not on my bingo card. In short order, C.J. Stroud and the Texans look like a serious AFC contender.
NFC teams correctly predicted records within two games [2023] | 11 for 16
AFC teams correctly predicted records within two games [2023] | 8 for 16
2022 season [13 for 32] -> 2023 season [19 for 32]
Team-by-Team Analysis
*Confidence is how sure I am of that respective team making the playoffs*
NFC:
1 SEED: Detroit Lions- PROJECTED RECORD | (13-4); Confidence: 95%
Best case: 13-4 record | Worst case: 10-7 record | Team MVP: Jared Goff
The roar has been restored in Detroit...but the job isn't finished yet. Head coach Dan Campbell has given the Motor City a new identity and look to become an NFC powerhouse for years to come. In 2023, the Lions won their first playoff game in 32 seasons, defeating Matthew Stafford (oh the irony) and the Rams. A picture-perfect season ended in the NFC Championship to San Francisco but the blueprint is there for another magical season. There's not many weaknesses on this roster, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The conference is wide open and perhaps Detroit can take advantage.
Biggest win: Week 17 @ San Francisco
Most Surprising Loss: Week 7 @ Minnesota
2 SEED: San Francisco 49ers- PROJECTED RECORD | (13-4); Confidence: 95%
Best case: 13-4 record | Worst case: 11-6 record | Team MVP: Christian McCaffrey
C'est la vie when you play Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl. Victimized by the same team twice in five seasons is heartbreak like you've never seen before. San Francisco has all the pieces to win the Lombardi Trophy for the first time in nearly three decades (1995). An elite defense, a great quarterback, and the best running back in the league. At this point, it's not about acquiring more pieces, it's about execution in the big moments. The playoffs are a given for this group but the next step is clear: win it all.
Biggest win: Week 7 vs Kansas City
Most Surprising Loss: Week 6 @ Seattle
3 SEED: Philadelphia Eagles- PROJECTED RECORD | (11-6); Confidence: 80%
Best case: 12-5 record | Worst case: 10-7 record | Team MVP: Jalen Hurts
The NFC hasn't had a back-to-back division winner since 2004 which means the Cowboys are likely to not retain their crown. The team with the most talent is Philadelphia who started 10-1 last year before having one of the biggest late-season collapses in recent memory. They lost six of their final games including a 32-9 no-show against Tampa Bay in the playoffs. It was clear disfunction was at the center of the Eagles' fallout. It remains to be seen if the issues between star quarterback Jalen Hurts and head coach Nick Sirianni have been resolved. They better be if the Eagles hope to regain their status as Super Bowl contenders. I'm a fan of the Eagles offseason acquisitions including Saquon Barkley while extending A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. I wouldn't write off the Birds too soon.
Biggest win: Week 17 vs Dallas
Most Surprising Loss: Week 16 @ Washington
4 SEED: Atlanta Falcons- PROJECTED RECORD | (9-8); Confidence: 65%
Best case: 11-6 record | Worst case: 7-10 record | Team MVP: Kirk Cousins
The Falcons have disappointed in the last few seasons but quarterback Kirk Cousins comes to the ATL with hopes of getting his new team back to the playoffs. The NFC South isn't glamorous which means even above-average play could be all that's necessary to win the division. New head coach Raheem Morris will likely add a boost to the Falcons' defense, as he comes from a defensive background. The true pressure now sits this young core featuring Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London, to deliver the goods. The expectation should be playoffs or bust.
Biggest win: Week 9 vs Dallas
Most Surprising Loss: Week 15 @ Las Vegas
5 SEED: Los Angeles Rams- PROJECTED RECORD | (11-6); Confidence: 75%
Best case: 12-5 record | Worst case: 9-8 record | Team MVP: Matthew Stafford
Aaron Donald's retirement hurts but the Rams should be considered as a Super Bowl contender. As a result, rookie defensive lineman Jared Verse will likely carve out a massive role from Day One. Last season's emergence of receiver Puka Nacua and running back Kyren Williams gives L.A. a bright future on the offensive side of the ball. The 2022 hangover season is in the rearview mirror. The script for the next Hollywood blockbuster begins on the SoFi gridiron.
Biggest win: Week 15 vs Buffalo
Most Surprising Loss: Week 4 @ Chicago
6 SEED: Green Bay Packers- PROJECTED RECORD | (11-6); Confidence: 95%
Best case: 13-4 record | Worst case: 9-8 record | Team MVP: Jordan Love
The Packers might very well be the luckiest franchise alive. They went from Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre to future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Now, it looks like they've struck gold again with Jordan Love. He looked like a top ten quarterback in the Packers surprising run to the Divisional Round. The optimism is buzzing as the Cheeseheads will be viewed as a true threat in the NFC, likely for the foreseeable future.
Biggest win: Week 14 @ Detroit
Most Surprising Loss: Week 17 @ Minnesota
7 SEED: Dallas Cowboys- PROJECTED RECORD | (10-7); Confidence: 90%
Best case: 13-4 record | Worst case: 9-8 record | Team MVP: Dak Prescott
Dallas didn't make a big splash this offseason, as they were one of the last teams to get involved in free agency. They brought back franchise great Ezekiel Elliott which will be great for nostalgia's sake but not necessarily for the production on the field. I'm not too concerned of the Cowboys' playoff chances. I'm concerned about what happens when they get there. In the past few years, it's been disastrous. "America's Team" has essentially become a meme at this point, much to the joy of Stephen A. Smith. I'm not on the Cowboys must make the Super Bowl but if they fail to win a playoff game, changes will likely be made...again.
Biggest win: Week 10 vs Philadelphia
Most Surprising Loss: Week 9 @ Atlanta
Bubble (any of these squads could make it in the field and I wouldn’t be surprised)
8 SEED: Chicago Bears- PROJECTED RECORD | (8-9)
Best case: 10-7 record | Worst case: 7-10 record | Team MVP: Caleb Williams
Caleb-mania is here in Chicago. While I have little doubt he'll have a long-lasting NFL career, we should also remember that he is still a rookie. The Bears youth movement means Chicago's contending window is just starting to develop. The offense is set-up nicely with a trio of dynamic receivers in D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and rookie Rome Odunze ready to become a hex for opposing defenses. As is the case with young teams, they'll probably win a few games they "shouldn't" and lose a few games that they "should." I'm excited to see how this team grows over the coming years. A playoff berth is very possible if they play their cards right.
9 SEED: Seattle Seahawks- PROJECTED RECORD | (8-9)
Best case: 10-7 record | Worst case: 6-11 record | Team MVP: D.K. Metcalf
Seattle is a team stuck in neutral. They never got to fully rebuild due to Geno Smith's unexpected breakout. It's good because they can stay competitive but bad because they can't stockpile assets and acquire elite talent quickly like the Texans did. The biggest shock of the offseason was moving on from Pete Carroll, who led the team to a Super Bowl championship. Carroll is still a good coach but it was clear that a new voice was needed. Mike Macdonald did wonders with the Ravens and now he'll try and get the most of this Seahawks roster. I wouldn't be surprised to see Seattle sneak back into the postseason but it's very unlikely they'd make a serious push for anything greater.
10 SEED: Tampa Bay Buccaneers- PROJECTED RECORD | (8-9)
Best case: 10-7 record | Worst case: 7-10 record | Team MVP: Baker Mayfield
Tampa Bay shocked everyone with Baker Mayfield's career resurgence, helping lead the Bucs to their third-straight playoff appearance. This franchise has finally witnessed some stability that honestly hasn't been seen ever. Mike Evans nearly tested the free agency waters but decided to come back with a two-year extension. It's very possible (and maybe even likely) Tampa could find themselves back in the postseason but I'm banking on the parody of the NFL to catch up to them.
11 SEED: New Orleans Saints- PROJECTED RECORD | (7-10)
Best case: 11-6 record | Worst case: 7-10 record | Team MVP: Chris Olave
The definition of a high-floor, low-ceiling team. I highly doubt the Saints roster is a bottom ten team (including injuries) but I also don't think it's a team capable of playing deep into January. In the NFC South, it's realistic to see this team sneak into the postseason but I have a bad feeling this team is going to drop off. While the defense has incredible talents like linebacker Demario Davis, safety Tyrann Mathieu, defensive end Cameron Jordan, and cornerback Marshon Lattimore, the offense has failed to live up to the hype. Similar to the team's future, QB Derek Carr has a ceiling and it'll limit this team when the going gets tough.
Others: (“rebuilding,” too many roster holes, or too inconsistent)
12 SEED: Washington Commanders- PROJECTED RECORD | (6-11)
Best case: 9-8 record | Worst case: 4-13 record | Team MVP: Jayden Daniels
Head coach Ron Rivera is gone and Dan Quinn is here. His first task was getting a new signal-caller and linemen to build around. Rookie Jayden Daniels has all the tools to take the Commanders' offense to new heights. He will have a revamped offensive line which caused Sam Howell to be sacked more than any quarterback in the league. The additions of rookie tackle Brandon Coleman, along with veteran center Tyler Biadasz and guard Nick Allegretti will be a massive upgrade to kick off this new era of Washington football. While the record might not look great in Year One, there's immense optimism that the Commanders are closer than we all think to being atop the division.
13 SEED: Carolina Panthers- PROJECTED RECORD | (6-11)
Best case: 8-9 record | Worst case: 2-15 record | Team MVP: Bryce Young
First-time head coach Dave Canales will attempt to clean up the mess that was created by the previous coaching staff and get Carolina on the right track. The first step was rebuilding an offensive line that caused Bryce Young to get sacked a whopping 62 times in his rookie season. Adding guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis is a step in the right direction. The offense can't be much worse than it was last year. Trading for Diontae Johnson and drafting Xavier Legette should help give the Panthers hope for the future. It likely won't be a stellar season for the Panthers once again but Young is set up for a much better Year Two and allow the team to get a better evaluation of his talents.
14 SEED: Minnesota Vikings- PROJECTED RECORD | (5-12)
Best case: 9-8 record | Worst case: 4-13 record | Team MVP: Justin Jefferson
This is clearly a rebuilding season for Minnesota. It doesn't help matters that rookie J.J. McCarthy will be out extended time with a torn meniscus and T.J. Hockenson may not suit up until November. Journeyman veteran QB Sam Darnold will start but we've seen how catastrophic his turnovers can be and singlehandedly cost his team games. The NFC North is as tough as it's ever been and the Vikings don't have much room for error if they hope to have a winning season.
15 SEED: Arizona Cardinals- PROJECTED RECORD | (5-12)
Best case: 9-8 record | Worst case: 3-14 record | Team MVP: Kyler Murray
Arizona's roster is devoid of star talent outside of Budda Baker and James Conner so it's going to be another grind of a season. Kyler Murray is still trying to prove himself in his sixth season as a pro. I'm afraid that Murray's career will be wasted while this team continues to figure out a true plan for the future. Marvin Harrison Jr is a good foundational piece that gives them their best receiver prospect since Larry Fitzgerald. The playoffs certainly aren't in the "cards" for this ball club.
16 SEED: New York Giants- PROJECTED RECORD | (4-13)
Best case: 8-9 record | Worst case: 3-14 record | Team MVP: Brian Burns
Daniel Jones is not the answer and it could be more clear after the Giants were extensively scouting the draft's top QB just a few months ago. I was very confident that New York's divisional round run in 2022 was a massive fluke and it showed last year. This year, I think the wheels will fall off. There's a lot of intreging pieces including rookie receiver Malik Nabers and free agent pass rusher Brian Burns. At the end of the day, it falls back on the offense and it's unlikely they can provide enough firepower for a full 17 games and make this season competitive.
AFC:
1 SEED: Kansas City Chiefs- PROJECTED RECORD | (13-4); Confidence: 100%
Best case: 15-2 record | Worst case: 11-6 record | Team MVP: Patrick Mahomes
Just when you think you have them right where you want them, they continue to prove the champs are still the champs. Kansas City didn't have a picture-perfect run to their second-consecutive Super Bowl championship title. Dropped passes plagued a pair of Chiefs losses to the Eagles and Lions respectively, raising the question if the KC has the supporting cast that was capable of winning a Super Bowl. The emergence of running back Isiah Pacheco and another remarkable postseason defensive effort propelled them to keep them as the AFC's top dog. Expect another deep postseason run in '24.
Biggest win: Week 1 vs Baltimore
Most Surprising Loss: Week 15 @ Cleveland
2 SEED: Cincinnati Bengals- PROJECTED RECORD | (12-5); Confidence: 95%
Best case: 15-2 record | Worst case: 11-6 record | Team MVP: Joe Burrow
Please protect Joe Burrow. Bengals...I'm begging you. Don't ruin his career like Andrew Luck. In the two seasons (2022, 2023) that the superstar QB has played a full 16 games, Cincinnati has found themselves in the AFC Championship Game or Super Bowl. It's a small sample size but keeping your biggest investment upright is crucial. There is always a team that goes "worst-to-first" in the following season to win their division. The most likely candidate is clearly the Bengals. They didn't have any massive off-season additions but their roster was already among the league's best. It's not a matter of if but when Cincinnati will be back to the big game. Bengals fans are hoping it's sooner rather than later.
Biggest win: Week 2 @ Kansas City
Most Surprising Loss: Week 7 @ Cleveland
3 SEED: Houston Texans- PROJECTED RECORD | (11-6); Confidence: 85%
Best case: 13-4 record | Worst case: 9-8 record | Team MVP: C.J. Stroud
The AFC's next powerhouse? The Texans took their lumps and built their team from the ground up. They bet the farm in the 2023 NFL Draft, acquiring the captain of their offense and defense respectively. Both quarterback C.J. Stroud and pass rusher Will Anderson look like home-run hits. Houston is the only franchise in the NFL to never make it to their conference championship? Can they improve off their shocking Divisional Round run last season and create more unforgettable memories?
Biggest win: Week 11 @ Dallas
Most Surprising Loss: Week 18 @ Tennessee
4 SEED: Buffalo Bills- PROJECTED RECORD | (10-7); Confidence: 75%
Best case: 13-4 record | Worst case: 9-8 record | Team MVP: Josh Allen
Is Buffalo's championship window about to close shut? It's never completely shut with an MVP-caliber quarterback at the helm but I'm a bit concerned that Buffalo hasn't been able to figure out the Kansas City hex or Josh Allen's erratic passing tendencies. To be fair, no one has. The Bills are a perennial playoff mainstay with a Super Bowl roster. If they are going to achieve their hopes and dreams, you have to find a way to beat the AFC's top dogs. If Mahomes didn't exist, Buffalo could've had multiple Super Bowl appearances by now. This ain't fantasy land, this is the NFL. The Ravens, Bengals, and Chiefs will likely be in your way and it's time for the Bills to clutch up and reach the Big Game.
Biggest win: Week 13 vs San Francisco
Most Surprising Loss: Week 14 @ Rams
5 SEED: Baltimore Ravens- PROJECTED RECORD | (11-6); Confidence: 90%
Best case: 14-3 record | Worst case: 10-7 record | Team MVP: Lamar Jackson
If not now, when? A golden opportunity to make the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2012 season was for the taking when the Ravens hosted the AFC Championship against Mahomes and the Chiefs. Despite holding them to 17 points, Lamar Jackson and the offense struggled to produce. The two-time MVP is looking for redemption and now he has help. Baltimore already had the most potent rushing attack in the league but now they add running back Derrick Henry to the mix. There's simply no excuses while Lamar is in his prime. Super Bowl or bust.
Biggest win: Week 3 @ Dallas
Most Surprising Loss: Week 15 @ Giants
6 SEED: Miami Dolphins- PROJECTED RECORD | (10-7); Confidence: 70%
Best case: 12-5 record | Worst case: 9-8 record | Team MVP: Tyreek Hill
Usain Bolt would blush when he sees the dynamic speed on this roster. Whether it's Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, or De'von Achane, the Dolphins are a handful on offense to defend. Miami has breezed though the regular season but when the playoffs come, they stub their toe. Assuming they can get to the playoffs again, the goal is clear: win a playoff game(s). The division is tough and the conference is even tougher but I think to show progression and not stagnation, it's time to make a move.
Biggest win: Week 2 vs Buffalo
Most Surprising Loss: Week 3 @ Seattle
7 SEED: Indianapolis Colts- PROJECTED RECORD | (10-7); Confidence: 45%
Best case: 11-6 record | Worst case: 6-11 record | Team MVP: Anthony Richardson
Here's my surprise pick to clinch a playoff berth. The Colts were "oh-so-close" to making the playoffs in Week 18 but couldn't quite close the deal. In this prediction, I'm banking on the immense potential of second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson, who's suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Similar to Cam Newton, he's a polarizing figure who has inconsistent accuracy. What he lacks in the passing department, Richardson has shown in a limited sample size to make it up on the ground. With an elite running back in Jonathan Taylor, solid offensive line, and three dynamic receivers (Pittman, Downs, Mitchell [rookie], Indianapolis could catch a few AFC hopefuls off-guard...and steal their playoff spot in the process.
Biggest win: Week 1 vs Houston
Most Surprising Loss: Week 6 @ Tennessee
Bubble (any of these squads could make it in the field and I wouldn’t be surprised)
8 SEED: New York Jets- PROJECTED RECORD | (10-7)
Best case: 12-5 record | Worst case: 8-9 record | Team MVP: Breece Hall
We all know what happened to star QB Aaron Rodgers in his Monday Night Football debut for New York. The Jets have a small championship window (two years at best) but a realistic one...assuming Rodgers can get back to form. The Jets have a great roster and just serviceable QB play will likely result in a winning record. I'm worried that Rodgers won't be the player that fans hope he will. And it isn't just based off last year's season-ending injury. In 2022, his last full season with Green Bay, he recorded his lowest QBR as a starter and missed the playoffs. He isn't getting any younger. A top five defense along with running back Breece Hall should be enough to make the playoffs but in my predictions, the Jets lose out in a tiebreaker. Heartbreak once again for Gang Green.
9 SEED: Pittsburgh Steelers- PROJECTED RECORD | (9-8)
Best case: 11-6 record | Worst case: 8-9 record | Team MVP: T.J. Watt
The most consistent team in the NFL? That would be Mike Tomlin's club. The last time Pittsburgh finished last in the division? 1988. There are many rosters that are more talented than the Steelers but very few that play with the same heart and tenacity. Future HOF QB Russell Wilson will get likely his last chance to be a starter in the NFL as he aims to add stability to a team that has struggled with finding consistent quarterback play since the departure of Ben Roethlisberger. This team won't be elite. This team won't be terrible. This is the Steelers way.
10 SEED: Jacksonville Jaguars- PROJECTED RECORD | (9-8)
Best case: 11-6 record | Worst case: 7-10 record | Team MVP: Trevor Lawrence
Big money spenders. Jacksonville locked up edge Josh Allen (no not that Josh Allen) and quarterback Trevor Lawrence to multi-year deals that will allow them to be the captain of their side of the ball for years to come. The major challenge will be for the Jags to keep up with the rest of the division. Remember when the AFC South used to be the laughing stock of the NFL? Not anymore. This is a young team with plenty of years to grow into their prime under Lawrence and head coach Doug Pederson's direction.
11 SEED: Los Angeles Chargers- PROJECTED RECORD | (9-8)
Best case: 11-6 record | Worst case: 6-11 record | Team MVP: Justin Herbert
Brandon Staley is FINALLY gone. All five fans rejoice (hehe). I'm not a Chargers fan but it was painful to watch how many brain-dead decisions he made. In his stead, Jim Harbaugh has left the College Football National Champion Michigan Wolverines to try and elevate the Bolts to a consistent playoff team, and ultimately a championship-caliber team. Wherever Harbaugh has gone, he's excelled. There are some question marks on this squad but at least he has a stable QB. Los Angeles is clearly the second-best team in the division behind the Chiefs and that likely won't change. If they want to make a run at the playoffs, taking advantage of a weak division is essential. Playing into mid-January is attainable if everyone stays healthy.
12 SEED: Cleveland Browns- PROJECTED RECORD | (8-9)
Best case: 11-6 record | Worst case: 6-11 record | Team MVP: Myles Garrett
Can Cleveland make the playoffs for back-to-back years, something they haven't done since 1989? The fate of the team relies on the health of Nick Chubb and the performance of Deshaun Watson. Chubb will likely start the season on the PUP list but it's remarkable that he's on track to come back after such a gruesome injury. Watson will get a boost as Cleveland picked up Jerry Jeudy in a trade with the Broncos. I feel about the Browns how I do the Seahawks or Dolphins. They're good enough that they could get into the playoffs with above-average quarterback play but not good enough to be a serious AFC contender. Time will tell with this club.
Others: (“rebuilding,” too many roster holes, or too inconsistent)
13 SEED: Tennessee Titans- PROJECTED RECORD | (5-12)
Best case: 10-7 record | Worst case: 4-13 record | Team MVP: Will Levis
The more I think about it, the more I think Tennessee could be much better than this projection. The front office made some sneaky smart moves in free agency. On defense, safety Jamal Adams joins L'Jarius Sneed (acquired in a trade from Kansas City). Offensively, receivers Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd come over to join DeAndre Hopkins and the Titans' revamped aerial attack. A dynamic duo in the backfield with new addition Tony Pollard and Tajae Spears could cause fits for AFC South foes. The key question is second-year QB Will Levis who showed promise in his rookie campaign. If he continues to ascend, the Titans could have a very bright future.
14 SEED: Las Vegas Raiders- PROJECTED RECORD | (4-13)
Best case: 8-9 record | Worst case: 3-14 record | Team MVP: Davante Adams
If Davante Adams could see into the future, it's very likely that he would've chosen to stay with the Packers. It's very likely Vegas will be in the mix for a new franchise quarterback next year. Aidan O'Connell and Gardner Minshew simply shouldn't be your starter for a full 16 games. There isn't much hope on offense as this group will likely struggle to score all season long with the departure of Josh Jacobs.
15 SEED: New England Patriots- PROJECTED RECORD | (3-14)
Best case: 7-10 record | Worst case: 2-15 record | Team MVP: Rhamondre Stevenson
Make way for Drake Maye. The former North Carolina Tar Heel is ready to take the league by storm and become the storied franchise's savior. There's a good chance he'll have to wait a while as he eases into his role. Jacoby Brissett is a quality backup, low-end starter that can help usher in the new Jerod Mayo era for the time being. New England's off-season moves likely show they are in it for the long-haul and not really 2024. With a competitive AFC East division, taking it slow and building up a quality roster should be expected. The Patriots elite defense will allow them to win a few games but it's going to likely be another rocky road until Maye gets up to speed.
16 SEED: Denver Broncos- PROJECTED RECORD | (3-14)
Best case: 8-9 record | Worst case: 2-15 record | Team MVP: First Overall Pick
Nothing that the Broncos did this offseason impressed me. Denver has arguably the worst QB situation in the league. Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson are definitely not the answer which means rookie QB Bo Nix could be thrusted into the starting lineup immediately. Perhaps Sean Payton has something up his sleeve but I'm willing to bet this season is a major bust.
Notable Season Trends
NFC:
Lions start 5-0
49ers start 5-0
Vikings start 0-5
Eagles in 4 of final 5 games
Rams win 8 of 9 games [Weeks 5-14]
AFC:
Bengals start 6-0
Dolphins start 6-1
Texans start 5-1
Raiders start 1-9
Chargers win five straight [Weeks 8-12]
Colts win final five games to make playoffs
Chiefs win seven straight games [Weeks 8-14]
Jets start 5-1...but miss playoffs off tie-breaker
Broncos clinch number one overall pick in 2025 NFL Draft
Top 5 Games of 2024-2025
Ravens @ Chiefs [Week 1]- The Thursday NFL season opener usually sports two of the best teams in the league and this time is no different. An AFC Championship rematch will give us a good indication on who should be the favorite for the one seed in the conference. Will the Ravens get revenge or will Kansas City show they're still king?
Chiefs @ 49ers [Week 7]- A mid-season Super Bowl matchup will have plenty of hype surrounding it. If there is a game to circle on your calendar, it's this one. Expect the 49ers to throw everything and the kitchen sink to win this one.
49ers @ Lions [Week 17]- A first-round bye in the playoffs could be on the line when these two adversaries hit the gridiron on Monday Night Football. We're blessed to get a Super Bowl, AFC Championship, and an NFC Championship rematch all in the same year.
Bills @ Jets [Week 6]- A battle for the AFC East with two dynamic quarterbacks on Monday Night Football? Sign me up. The winner of this one could have the inside track on the division crown. Just don't make Rodgers run out with the American flag again...
Bears @ Commanders [Week 8]- The #1 and #2 overall picks in the 2024 NFL Draft will likely square off in this clash. If one (or both) of these teams surprises and makes a postseason run, this game could be a crucial tiebreaker. Regardless, the narratives on both Williams and Daniels will likely begin following this contest.
Most Consequential Games of the 2024-2025 Season
*based on my predictions
Week 2: Chiefs over Bengals- Get used to Patrick Mahomes vs Joe Burrow for another decade. Although this matchup is early in the year, the winner of this matchup could have the inside track to a number one seed when it's all said and done.
Week 16: Ravens over Steelers- Toggle this one game in the Steelers favor and here's the result. The Ravens drop from the #5 seed to out of the playoffs entirely. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh sneaks into the playoffs at 10-7 as the seventh seed. The AFC is tight and EVERY game matters, especially this historically great rivalry.
Week 17: Eagles over Cowboys- The NFC East will likely come down to the bitter end. I expect both Eagles/Cowboys matchups to be highly-contested, knowing what's at stake. Philly takes this one at home and wins the division in the process.
Week 17: Bills over Jets- It's very likely that Buffalo and New York will be battling it out for the AFC East crown. I have Miami, Buffalo, and New York all at 10-7 when it's all said and done. A late-season divisional game could be the difference between a 2 or 3 seed in the playoffs...or sitting at home in January.
Week 17: Patriots over Chargers- There is always a team eliminated from the playoffs that spoils the playoff hopes of a contending foe. With the Chargers sitting at 9-6 going into the final two games of the regular season, Drake Maye will have an elite rookie performance, upsetting LA and ultimately costing them a playoff berth.
Week 18: Colts over Jaguars- Sunday Night Football. Win-or-go-home. Both Indianapolis and Jacksonville have been in this spot within the last two seasons. This time, the Colts use the pain of last year's defeat to Houston and clinch a playoff spot for the first time since the 2020 season.
Week 18: Falcons over Panthers- While it's unlikely the Panthers will be in playoff contention in the final week of the season, the Falcons are expected to push for the NFC South crown. Carolina has a young, energetic coach that could inspire an upset and push for momentum headed into the 2025 season. If Atlanta doesn't play their best game and loses, Tampa Bay will take their spot. A must win for the Dirty Birds.
Playoff Predictions
AFC Playoff Field:
#1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)
#2. Cincinnati Bengals (12-5)
#3. Houston Texans (11-6)
#4. Buffalo Bills (10-7)
#5. Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
#6. Miami Dolphins (10-7)
#7. Indianapolis Colts (10-7)
NFC Playoff Field:
#1. Detroit Lions (13-4)
#2. San Francisco 49ers (13-4)
#3. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
#4. Atlanta Falcons (9-8)
#5. Los Angeles Rams (11-6)
#6. Green Bay Packers (11-6)
#7. Dallas Cowboys (10-7)
Wild Card Round:
Divisional Round:
Conference Championship:
#1 Chiefs over Bengals 25-24
#1 Lions over Rams 31-27
The Super Bowl that we easily could've gotten last season will come to fruition in New Orleans. For the Chiefs, they'll be playing for their third-consecutive championship. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions will be hoping for beginner's luck as they'll play in the Big Game for the first-time in franchise history.
Both quarterbacks have played in a Super Bowl, however for Jared Goff, his debut didn't go so hot. The Rams lost 13-3 to Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in the 2018 season. Now in Honolulu Blue, Goff's second act presumedly will go much better. An arsenal of weapons including Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, and Sam LaPorta will cause havoc for Kansas City's defense.
To defeat Mahomes, it's going to be a four-quarter fight on defense. The Buccaneers found a way to get to him in his only loss in a Super Bowl (31-9). Detroit's defense is improving but it's going to take the best effort of the season.
I would expect this game to be close but until I see someone knock off the champs, it's hard to pick against them. Experience is important and Kansas City won't be phased while the lights might get too bright for Detroit. An aggressive call by Dan Campbell could be the difference, for better or for worse. It's Chiefs vs. the World. Sorry Lions fans, the quest for your first title will have to wait at least one more season.
The pick: Kansas City Chiefs 27, Detroit Lions 24
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs (5th title in franchise history)
Super Bowl MVP: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs
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