Christian's 2026 Ultimate NFL Predictions
Sep 7
58 min read
WACO, TX (SEPTEMBER 7TH, 2026)- Happy Labor Day! The dawn of a new NFL regular season is upon us, and the cupboard is bare (for now). There are still so many memories, moments, and breakout players waiting to be discovered. That's what makes the NFL so special. It's more than just entertainment. It's a way to bond with friends, follow life-changing storylines, and be a fan of the best league in the United States.
2025 was one of the wackiest seasons we've ever seen. We watched elite defenses put the clamps down (Texans, Seahawks), elite offenses score at will (Rams, Cowboys), and crazy in-season collapses from teams like the Buccaneers and Colts. The playoffs delivered in a MAJOR way too. The 8-9 Panthers took the Rams to the limit, the Broncos upended the Bills in the Divisional Round, and who could forget Caleb Williams' wonderkind fourth-down throw to send the game to overtime against the Rams?
No one predicted the Patriots or Seahawks would do what they did last year. Drake Maye, in his first full year as a starter, led New England all the way to the Super Bowl. Sam Darnold completed one of the greatest career revivals we've ever seen and won it all. The 2025 season was a clear reminder that anything is possible with a great coach and a great roster in place.
It's that time of the year to dream big. The journey for the Lombardi Trophy is just a few days away, so get your popcorn ready and read the longest article I've ever written! Without further ado, LET'S GET INTO THE PREDICTIONS.
Top Five Teams I was "right" about in 2025:
Vikings (9-8 projected record) -> EXACT | An extremely talented team with an issue at quarterback. 9-8 felt right in 2025 and became one of five "exactly" correct predictions.
Falcons (8-9) -> EXACT | Par for the course, the Falcons win 7 or 8 games. Shocker...(not).
Bills (12-5) -> EXACT | Buffalo has been the same story for years now. Dominate the regular season, flounder in the playoffs.
Giants (4-13) -> EXACT | A clear-cut bottom-of-the-barrel team. DangerRuss couldn't save 'em. Now, can Jaxson Dart?
Panthers (8-9) -> EXACT | Another season, another exactly correct Carolina Panthers prediction. I will give a caveat and say I had the Panthers missing the playoffs. 99 times out of 100, a losing record team doesn't make the playoffs. But the NFC South is a different breed as we've come to know.
Top Five Teams I was "wrong" about in 2025:
Seahawks (7-10 projected record) -> 14-3 actual record | Another season of me being wrong about a Sam Darnold led team. Last year it was Minnesota, this year it was Seattle. My exact words from last year writing about the Vikings: "Who would've thought Sam Darnold could win 14 games in an NFL season?" Apparently, he can do it again...and now has a Lombardi to show for it.
Patriots (6-11) -> 14-3 | Drake "Drake Maye" Maye. That's the tweet.
Chiefs (13-4) -> 6-11 | Even before Mahomes' season ending injury, it was apparent that Kansas City was suffering from a Super Bowl hangover. Almost no one projected their downfall so I can't feel too dumb for this pick.
Ravens (13-4) -> 8-9 | A shockingly bad 1-5 start ultimately doomed Baltimore and got Harbaugh canned after 18 seasons with the franchise.
Bears (6-11) -> 11-6 | I've always been in a "believe it when I see it" mode with the Bears and boy, did we see the future right before our very eyes.
NFC teams correctly predicted records within two games [2025] | 10 for 16
AFC teams correctly predicted records within two games [2025] | 8 for 16
2022 season [13 for 32] -> 2023 season [19 for 32] -> 2024 season [19 for 32] -> 2025 season [18 for 32]
Team-by-Team Analysis
*Confidence is how sure I am of that respective team making the playoffs*
NFC:
1 SEED: Los Angeles Rams- PROJECTED RECORD | (14-3); Confidence: 100%
Best case: 16-1 record | Worst case: 12-5 record | Team MVP: Matthew Stafford
It's hard to envision a world, injuries aside, where the Los Angeles Rams aren't sitting pretty in the playoff picture. To many, this is the clear-cut #1 team heading into the season, and it's obvious to see why.
Los Angeles has built the closest thing to a super team you can in the salary cap era. Offensively, they have almost no flaws. Reigning NFL MVP Matthew Stafford (4,707 yards, 46 touchdowns) is coming off a ridiculous season and gets the privilege of throwing to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Yeah...good luck with that. Kyren Williams is fresh off another 1,200-yard, 10-touchdown campaign and continues to be one of the most underrated backs in football. If you're playing the Rams, you'd better have an elite defense or come ready to score 30 points. And honestly, that still might not be enough.
The one kryptonite for the Rams last season was the secondary, but general manager Les Snead wasted absolutely no time fixing it. The biggest move of the offseason? Trading for two-time Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett and All-Pro corner Trent McDuffie. Oh my goodness. Garrett lining up opposite Byron Young, who racked up 12 sacks a year ago, is downright unfair. And although it's been in the works, future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald is coming out of retirement to bolster the defensive line. Even if he's 70% of what he was, he's still better than most athletes will play in their prime. Just say a prayer everyone involved playing this team. That presumed dominant rush should make life a whole lot easier for the oft-criticized secondary that likely lost them a championship last year. Don't be surprised if this defense jumps into the NFL's top five in '26.
It's clearly Super Bowl or bust for LA in 2026. Guess where Super Bowl 61 is being played this year? Right at the home of the Rams. Absolutely zero excuses for McVay and Co. ZERO.
Biggest win: Week 18 vs Seattle
Most Surprising Loss: None
2 SEED: Philadelphia Eagles- PROJECTED RECORD | (12-5); Confidence: 95%
Best case: 14-3 record | Worst case: 10-7 record | Team MVP: Saquon Barkley
It's a safe bet to say Philadelphia will be right back in the championship hunt. But it'll come down to team chemistry and whether the offense can get back to the efficient level it played at during its Super Bowl run.
Some regression from Saquon Barkley was expected, but it was more significant than most people thought. After rushing for 2,005 yards and 13 touchdowns during the Eagles' Super Bowl 59 season, his production was nearly cut in half, finishing with 1,140 yards and seven touchdowns. It's no coincidence that the offense took a step back at times because of it.
The biggest move of the offseason was receiver A.J. Brown leaving Philadelphia for New England. Once the Eagles drafted USC's Makai Lemon in the first round, the writing was on the wall for Brown. DeVonta Smith is now the clear WR1, and trade acquisition pickup Dontayvion Wicks should carve out a productive role as well, giving Philadelphia a smaller stature but explosive group of wide receivers.
The defense is loaded at all three levels. The secondary is headlined by Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell. The linebackers are led by Zach Baun, and the defensive tackle duo of Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter will continue to cause fits in opposing backfields. The one area that could still use some work is the run defense. Philadelphia had an elite secondary, finishing fourth in the league against the pass, but ranked just 22nd against the run. If they can clean that up, their 'A' defense will turn into an A+ one.
This team is more than a Jalen Hurts "tush push" gimmick. They're a real championship threat, and if the offense can get back to its old self, they'll have every chance to be playing for another Lombardi in short order.
Biggest win: Week 4 vs Los Angeles Rams
Most Surprising Loss: Week 18 @ New York Giants
3 SEED: Detroit Lions- PROJECTED RECORD | (11-6); Confidence: 70%
Best case: 13-4 record | Worst case: 9-8 record | Team MVP: Jahmyr Gibbs
Is the Lions' championship window still open, or was their 2024 NFC Championship appearance their "only shot?" On the surface, Detroit still has the core pieces in place to put itself right back in the Super Bowl conversation.
A 9-8 season would've sparked a parade in Detroit not that long ago. The fact that it now feels like a disappointment shows just how far this franchise has come. Missing the playoffs wasn't what anyone envisioned, but there are still plenty of reasons for optimism.
With David Montgomery now in Houston, running back Jahmyr Gibbs is poised for the biggest season of his career. After rushing for more than 1,200 yards and adding over 600 receiving yards last season, a 2,000-yard campaign from scrimmage isn't out of the question. Twenty touchdowns also feels well within reach. By season's end, we could very well be talking about Gibbs as the best running back in football, not just for fantasy, but in real life.
Detroit's offense should remain among the league's elite. Jared Goff continues to be one of the NFL's most reliable quarterbacks, and he'll once again be surrounded by an outstanding supporting cast featuring Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta.
The defense remains the biggest question mark. The secondary, outside of Brian Branch (will miss the first four games on PUP), still leaves plenty to be desired. That said, the Lions aren't totally lacking for talent on that side of the ball. Jack Campbell emerged as one of the league's premier linebackers, finishing second in the NFL with 176 tackles in 2025. It was also great to see Aidan Hutchinson return from his horrific injury and regain elite form, recording 14.5 sacks and finishing among the NFL's top five EDGE rushers.
One interesting food-for-thought point heading into the season: despite former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson now leading the Bears, Detroit still swept Chicago last year. Those games will be just as important if the Lions hope to knock the Bears off the NFC North throne. However, Detroit was surprisingly swept by both Green Bay and Minnesota, a big reason it missed the postseason. The NFC North might be the toughest division in football, and if the Lions want to get back into the playoffs and make a deep run, they'll need to take care of business in those divisional matchups.
Biggest win: Week 12 vs Chicago
Most Surprising Loss: Week 4 @ Carolina
4 SEED: Carolina Panthers- PROJECTED RECORD | (8-9); Confidence: 50%
Best case: 10-7 record | Worst case: 5-12 record | Team MVP: Derrick Brown
It's an extremely pivotal season in the trajectory of the Dave Canales-Bryce Young era. The Panthers are right on schedule in their rebuild, increasing their win total from two in 2023, to five in 2024, to eight in 2025. If that trend continues, double-digit wins could very well be in their future. But before Carolina can become a true NFC contender, there are still a lot of questions that need to be answered and it all starts with No. 9.
The Panthers were probably the NFL's biggest enigma in 2025 because the only way to describe their season was "consistently inconsistent." Take their first win of the year. Carolina shut out the Falcons 30-0, only to get blown out by the Patriots 42-13 the very next week. Or look at the Dolphins game, where they fell behind 17-0 in the second quarter before storming back to win 27-24. They got swept by the Saints but beat the eventual NFC champion Rams in one of the biggest upsets of the season.
And Bryce Young? He might've been the biggest enigma of them all.
One week he's throwing for just 54 yards against Seattle and struggling to complete anything more than five yards downfield. The next, he's breaking the Panthers' single-game passing record with 448 yards against Atlanta while dropping perfectly layered throws into tight windows all afternoon. Their 34-31 playoff loss to the Rams showed they can play with anybody. The regular season also showed they can lose to anybody. That's just life in the NFC South these days.
The Panthers are hoping their defense, which finished 15th in the league last season, can take another step and break into the top ten. Adding linebacker Devin Lloyd and EDGE Jaelan Phillips should go a long way toward making that happen. There really aren't many question marks on that side of the ball. Jaycee Horn, Mike Jackson, Tre'Von Moehrig, and Derrick Brown will help this unit thrive. The offense is where this season will be won or lost, though.
It's Bryce Young's fourth year, and the excuses need to be over. He's got a true WR1 in Tetairoa McMillan. He's got one of the top offensive lines in football led by Robert Hunt, Taylor Moton, Damien Lewis, and rookie left tackle Monroe Freeling. The supporting cast is there. Play above-average football, earn the big contract, and cement yourself as the Panthers' franchise quarterback for the next decade. Play mid, or below-average, and not only could Bryce be looking for a new home, but Carolina will be back to searching for its next signal-caller...again.
The schedule is brutal, so the win total might not increase as much as fans would hope. But at the bare minimum, the product on the field has to be better and the inconsistency needs to change. If it doesn't, it could be curtains for the former #1 overall pick as a starter in Carolina.
Biggest win: Week 4 vs Detroit
Most Surprising Loss: Week 10 @ New Orleans
5 SEED: Seattle Seahawks- PROJECTED RECORD | (13-4); Confidence: 99%
Best case: 14-3 record | Worst case: 10-7 record | Team MVP: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
How does defending Super Bowl 60 champions sound, Seahawks fans? It's still wild to say. It's not a dream anymore, it's reality. So now the question becomes: can Seattle go back-to-back?
There's definitely a formula to getting it done, and it starts with that rock-solid defense. Defense wins championships, and once again, it proved that an elite defense beats a dynamic offense almost every time.
Whether it was Byron Murphy (7 sacks), Leonard Williams (7 sacks), or Uchenna Nwosu (7 sacks), it felt nearly impossible to move the ball against this team. The #1 defense in football gave us shades of the Legion of Boom all over again. Devon Witherspoon looked like the next Richard Sherman, just a little less outspoken and Nick Emmanwori was doing his best Kam Chancellor imitation. At times, it honestly felt like I was watching that defense reincarnated.
There were so many games last year where it was a low-scoring battle midway through the third quarter. Maybe Seattle was up by 3 or 7. The other team always felt like they were hanging around and could pull the upset. Then you'd look up at the final score and somehow the Seahawks had won by 24. That's just what great defenses do. They suck you into the doldrums of the gridiron. I expect nothing less than another top-five unit this season.
On offense, losing offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and Kenneth Walker III obviously isn't ideal, but with the "Emerald City Route Artist" taking the leap into one of the league's elite receivers, I still think there's enough talent to thrive. My biggest concern is the run game. Walker is a Kansas City Chief, and Zach Charbonnet isn't expected back until later in the season. If there's one weakness on this team, that's probably it.
There's going to be a lot of pressure on former Notre Dame rookie Jadarian Price to produce right away. If he can't, and Seattle becomes a one-dimensional passing team, I'm not sure that's a recipe for offensive success. Even with all the weapons they have, you can't ask Sam Darnold to throw it 40-plus times every week.
Speaking of Darnold...if you would've told me a few years ago that he'd be a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, I would've laughed. But give him some kudos. He's done exactly what's been asked of him. Sure, leading the league in turnovers is still...not great, but for every bad mistake, he'd come right back with an elite level throw or clutch up on a crucial drive that only a handful of quarterbacks in the league could manufacture. We never saw that version of him with the Jets (hahaha).
Seattle has all the pieces to make another run. The defense should be championship-caliber again so if complacency doesn't creep in and this team is just as hungry as they were last season, I'd be willing to bet another deep playoff run is their destiny.
Biggest win: Week 16 vs Los Angeles Rams
Most Surprising Loss: Week 2 @ Arizona
6 SEED: San Francisco 49ers- PROJECTED RECORD | (11-6); Confidence: 80%
Best case: 13-4 record | Worst case: 10-7 record | Team MVP: Christian McCaffrey
The 49ers were the first 12-win team in NFL history to finish third in their division, yet almost no one is talking about them as a legitimate Super Bowl contender this season. The Rams and Seahawks deserve plenty of respect, but a healthy San Francisco squad belongs in that conversation too. After all, they've won at least one playoff game in four of the last five seasons.
What could derail this team is the same thing that always seems to derail them: injuries. Winning 12 games despite everything they had to overcome last season was remarkable. Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, George Kittle, and Brock Purdy all missed significant time, yet the 49ers still put together an outstanding year. If Seattle hadn't had the season it did, Kyle Shanahan likely would've been my Coach of the Year selection.
The receiving corps also has a new look. Jauan Jennings and Brandon Aiyuk are out, while Mike Evans and Christian Kirk are in. Meanwhile, rookie receiver De'Zhaun Stribling is turning heads this offseason and should carve out a big role. Assuming Evans stays healthy (and that's a big "if"), that's an obvious upgrade. Pair that with star Christian McCaffrey who is arguably the best player on the field whenever he suits up, and this offense should be able to move the ball with relative ease.
The NFC West is shaping up to be one of the league's toughest divisions. But if the 49ers can stay healthy and take control of it, another deep playoff run and a return to the Super Bowl conversation could very well be in their future, if the electrical substation doesn't get to them first.
Biggest win: Week 14 vs Los Angeles Rams
Most Surprising Loss: Week 13 @ New York Giants
7 SEED: Dallas Cowboys- PROJECTED RECORD | (10-7); Confidence: 50%
Best case: 12-5 record | Worst case: 7-10 record | Team MVP: CeeDee Lamb
Very seldom do you see a team with an offense this lethal (second in points per game) and a defense this abysmal (dead last in points allowed at 30.1 PPG), but here we are. Allowing 40 points FOUR different times in 2025 was flat-out unacceptable.
New defensive coordinator Christian Parker is hoping to be the catalyst for a Cowboys bounce-back season and a return to the playoffs. Honestly, it's hard to imagine this defense being much worse. That's why I think even a marginal improvement is enough to swing two or three games and sneak Dallas into the final NFC's playoff spot.
The offense returns all 11 starters, so assuming everyone stays healthy, expect another top-five unit. It's rare to see anyone steal the spotlight from CeeDee Lamb, but George Pickens, acrobatic catches and all, became Dak Prescott's favorite target in 2025. Will that continue? It's possible. But I'm not sure it really matters. This offense has weapons everywhere.
Tight end Jake Ferguson has quietly become one of Dak's favorite red-zone targets, finishing tied for third among all tight ends in both receptions and touchdown catches. Meanwhile, Dallas' low-risk gamble on Javonte Williams worked wonders. He rewarded them with 1,200 rushing yards and 13 total touchdowns in a breakout campaign.
The defense is where all the attention will be. Dallas completely reshaped that side of the ball, starting with the trade for former Packers linebacker Rashan Gary. He's probably not going for double-digit sacks, but he's about as steady as they come. Expect somewhere around seven to nine sacks and some key TFLs. Honestly... that's all the Cowboys really need. Or, ya know... they could've just kept Micah Parsons.
The front seven should be improved with Kenny Clark and Quinnen Williams anchoring the interior, Dee Winters joining the linebacker room via trade, and the additions of star safety Caleb Downs and EDGE Malachi Lawrence through the draft. The secondary still has plenty of question marks and will probably get shredded at times, but Parker's scheme should do a much better job of hiding those deficiencies than what we saw a year ago.
Everything comes back to the defense. We already know Dallas can score with just about anybody. If this defense can go from pathetic to just average, that's probably all it'll take to get the Cowboys back in the postseason.
Biggest win: Week 12 vs Philadelphia
Most Surprising Loss: Week 18 @ Washington
Bubble (any of these squads could make it in the field and I wouldn’t be surprised)
8 SEED: Chicago Bears- PROJECTED RECORD | (10-7)
Best case: 12-5 record | Worst case: 8-9 record | Team MVP: Caleb Williams
For the first time since 2018, the Bears captured the NFC North crown, and for the first time since the 2010 season, they won a playoff game. Even more impressive? They clinched the division and snapped their postseason drought against their biggest rival, the Green Bay Packers. That feels like a clear sign this franchise has turned a corner under superstar head coach Ben Johnson. Chicago also won an impressive seven one-possession games, finding ways to escape in seemingly impossible situations against teams like the Bengals, Packers, and Commanders.
The team feeds off the energy Caleb Williams brings every week. His superstar ability and jaw-dropping throws have given the Windy City a bona fide franchise quarterback with plenty of swagger. Offensively, there's a lot to be excited about. Colston Loveland looks like the next great Bears tight end, while Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III have all the tools to become one of the league's better receiving duos. The offensive line has also come a long way, anchored by All-Pro Joe Thuney and right tackle Darnell Wright, and is light-years ahead of where it was just a few seasons ago.
The defense, however, still has work to do. Chicago finished in the bottom five in yards allowed, ranked 23rd in points allowed. In addition, they were ranked bottom three in pass rush rate last year and didn't make any major additions to help overcome that. If the Bears want to make a legitimate Super Bowl push, that unit has to take a significant step forward. Maybe the addition of Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman will help eliminate some of the explosive plays that hurt them against the NFC North's elite receiving corps.
It feels strange leaving Chicago on the outside looking in after how much they've improved in such a short time. But history suggests there could be some regression. Since 2020, roughly half of the teams that made the playoffs one season failed to return the next. Those one-score games that broke in the Bears' favor this year could just as easily swing the other way in 2026 if they can't build bigger leads earlier in games. Depending on how the tiebreakers shake out, you could easily swap the Cowboys and Bears in these projections. Someone in the NFC North is going to end up drawing the short straw.
9 SEED: Green Bay Packers- PROJECTED RECORD | (10-7)
Best case: 12-5 record | Worst case: 8-9 record | Team MVP: Jordan Love
The trend for the Packers has been the "last team in" as the 7 seed. Plateauing isn't a place you want to be in a division as competitive as this one.
All-Pro pass rusher Micah Parsons will miss the first few games of the year so they'll really need EDGE Lukas Van Ness, the 13th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, to step up in what seems to be a "make or break" year for him. He hasn't lived up to his first-round hype, generating just 8.5 sacks in three years. Those are the definition of rotational pass rush numbers, not starting caliber ones. Without Parsons, this pass rush looks bleak. There is some young talent like second-year EDGE Barryn Sorrell who will likely start alongside Van Ness for the time being but it's a lot of uncertainty for a team that has playoff aspirations.
The offense should be solid again but there are some questions as star running back Josh Jacobs immediate future with the team could be in jeopardy after being placed on the commissioner's exempt list. Their skill positions largely remain the same with Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Matthew Golden at receiver. And they'll be hoping that tight end Tucker Kraft can be full-go from his torn ACL last year and give Jordan Love another reliable target.
The NFC North from top to bottom is the best in the NFL so it will be a battle of attrition to get to the finish line. Green Bay always finds a way to be in the mix and I expect nothing less here.
10 SEED: Minnesota Vikings- PROJECTED RECORD | (9-8)
Best case: 11-6 record | Worst case: 7-10 record | Team MVP: Justin Jefferson
A lot is on the line for Kyler Murray in what is a one-year "prove-it" deal. He's got to deliver, or his days as an NFL starting quarterback are TOAST. His play during his time in Arizona has been pretty underwhelming. He's been a solid quarterback, but it also feels like we've already seen his ceiling.
His best season came in 2021 when the Cardinals went 11-6, but it ended in disaster with a 34-11 playoff loss to the Rams. Since then, Arizona hasn't finished above .500, leading to this fresh start for Murray in Minnesota.
The Vikings are putting him in a great spot. He's walking into one of the league's most complete rosters with plenty of weapons to work with. It starts with Justin Jefferson, one of the biggest game-wreckers in football. Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings round out a really strong receiving corps, and if they're used correctly, this offense could be one of the best in the NFL. The running game is where I have some concerns. Aaron Jones isn't the same player he was a few years ago, and while I like Jordan Mason in his role, I'm not sure he'll get enough volume to really make a difference.
At the end of the day, though, the Vikings are going to win because of their defense. Brian Flores has built one of the best defensive units in football (seventh in 2025), and I love how many different guys they can throw at opposing quarterbacks. Dallas Turner (eight sacks), Andrew Van Ginkel (seven), Eric Wilson (6.5), and Jalen Redmond (six) all got after the passer last year. Blake Cashman is also one of the more underrated linebackers in the league after piling up 144 total tackles. It feels like if you're playing in a Flores-led defense, you're going to rack up stats.
Despite me picking the Vikings to finish last in the NFC North, I could just as easily see them winning the division. That's just how loaded this division is. The last-place team won nine games a year ago, and I think we're in for another season where every divisional matchup will have high-stakes. One extra win could be the difference between missing the playoffs and hosting a playoff game in January.
11 SEED: Tampa Bay Buccaneers- PROJECTED RECORD | (8-9)
Best case: 10-7 record | Worst case: 6-11 record | Team MVP: Baker Mayfield
It was a tale of two seasons for the Bucs. First, the good. Tampa Bay raced out to an impressive 6-2 start with wins over the Texans, Seahawks, and 49ers. Suddenly, the dark horse Super Bowl contender" talk was a reasonable take. They clearly looked like one of the most complete teams in the NFC and had the resume to prove it.
Then the bye week happened. Because, like Space Jam, it felt like somebody stole all of their talent.
Following the bye, the Buccaneers put together an epic collapse that would've made a Jenga tower blush. Tampa lost seven of its final nine games to finish 8-9, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2019. The first three losses to New England, Buffalo, and the Rams were at least understandable. Those are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. But the narrow win over lowly Arizona felt like the warning sign that something was off. Then came the DAGGER: three straight losses to division rivals, each by four points or fewer. That spelled their ultimate demise.
On paper, Tampa Bay should still be the favorite to win the NFC South. They've been the class of the division over the last five seasons and have the most stable quarterback situation. The roster is largely the same outside of two major changes. Franchise legend Lavonte David retired, paving the way for veteran Alex Anzalone to step in and help stabilize the middle of the defense. At receiver, Emeka Egbuka is expected to take over as WR1 following the departure of future Hall of Famer Mike Evans to San Francisco.
The biggest reason Tampa Bay missed the playoffs was pretty darn obvious: coaching.
Buccaneers fans have been ready for Todd Bowles to 'walk the plank' for a while now. I still think this roster is good enough to make the playoffs, but coaching matters. Momentum matters. And right now, Tampa has neither. While teams like the Panthers and Saints finally seem to be trending upward, the Buccaneers feel rudderless.
There is a good chance that the same core will lead to the same questions. And those questions could be deafening by season's end.
I'm calling another 8-9 season for Tampa Bay. That might be enough to win the South if the division disappoints again, but even if the Bucs sneak into January, we'll all know the "Buc" stops there.
12 SEED: Washington Commanders- PROJECTED RECORD | (7-10)
Best case: 10-7 record | Worst case: 5-12 record | Team MVP: Jayden Daniels
One of the league's biggest regressions, the Commanders went from the NFC Championship Game to 5-12 in the span of a year. Can they get back to the top of the mountain? Maybe, but I have some major concerns with how this roster is constructed. The defense could once again be one of the league's worst, and while the offense has an elite quarterback, there are still plenty of question marks.
We all know Jayden Daniels is HIM! His rookie season was one of the best we've ever seen, but his second year was plagued by injuries and inconsistent play. Assuming he's healthy, who is he going to throw the ball to? We all know receiver Terry McLaurin is a stud, but beyond him, I'm pretty concerned. Tight end Chig Okonkwo could end up having a breakout season simply because the rest of the receiving corps isn't spectacular. Sure, Stefon Diggs has the pedigree. But Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown, Van Jefferson, and Treylon Burks doesn't exactly inspire a ton of confidence.
Defensively, they'll hope free-agent addition Odafe Oweh (7.5 sacks in 2025) can generate some pass rush and help a run defense that was near the bottom of the league last season. Outside of him, though, their offseason didn't really blow me away. Amik Robertson? Rashaad White? Leo Chenal? Those all feel more like stopgaps than long-term answers. The Commanders also have the oldest roster in the NFL, which isn't exactly ideal for a team trying to bounce back.
I just don't think this will be the year Washington fans are hoping for. Of course, another Jayden Daniels masterclass could change everything, and that's definitely not out of the realm of possibility. But as things stand today, I'm not buying this roster.
13 SEED: New York Giants- PROJECTED RECORD | (6-11)
Best case: 10-7 record | Worst case: 4-13 record | Team MVP: Malik Nabers
Despite it not showing up in the win column, New York is slowly becoming a sleeping giant in the NFC East. A lot of that "potential" rides on the shoulders of second-year quarterback Jaxson Dart and how quickly he can develop. To get the most out of this roster, new head coach John Harbaugh will hope to bring what made his Ravens teams so special and breathe new life into a franchise that has just one playoff win and two playoff appearances since 2012.
On defense, the Giants were pretty disappointing. Despite having Brian Burns, one of the premier pass rushers in the league who finished with 16.5 sacks, and sophomore edge rusher Abdul Carter, who is expected to take a major leap as a full-time starter, New York still ranked 26th in total defense in 2025. Losing star defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence certainly doesn't help their chances of improving a run defense that already struggled. The Giants hired former Titans defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson to shake things up, and it's hard not to go up from here. After forcing just five interceptions all season, there will need to be a concerted effort to generate more takeaways. Perhaps rookie linebacker Arvell Reese can provide the spark this Big Blue defense needs.
The offense has plenty of room to be creative, but their biggest challenge may simply be staying out of the ER. Jaxson Dart, Malik Nabers, and Cam Skattebo all have Pro Bowl potential, or, in Nabers' case, All-Pro talent but outside of those three, there isn't another true game-breaker on the roster. New York is also turning back the clock to 2016 with the return of Odell Beckham Jr. I doubt he'll have a major role, but it's still really cool to see him back in the Big Apple.
There's always one team every year that nobody expects to make the playoffs, yet somehow crashes the party. Of all the teams I have projected to finish with six wins or fewer, the Giants would be my pick to shatter expectations. Right now, though, there's just too much uncertainty on the defensive side of the ball for me to seriously consider them a playoff team. But after seven one-possession losses in 2025, maybe their swing on a big-name head coach is exactly what they needed to turn competitive losses into big-time wins.
14 SEED: New Orleans Saints- PROJECTED RECORD | (6-11)
Best case: 10-7 record | Worst case: 4-13 record | Team MVP: Tyler Shough
The Saints have become one of the trendiest offseason picks to make the playoffs, and it's easy to see why. At the start of 2025, they were widely expected to finish among the league's bottom three teams with little reason for optimism. Kellen Moore's hiring was met with plenty of skepticism, but the narrative has completely flipped.
New Orleans entered last season with major questions at quarterback, but if 2025 was any indication, second-year quarterback Tyler Shough may have answered them. His rapid development has given the Saints legitimate hope that they can compete for the NFC South title. And as we've seen, it doesn't take much to win that division as eight or nine wins could be enough.
The Saints were scrappy and competitive in most of their games last season, and with additions like rookie wide receiver Jordyn Tyson (out for the first two months with a hamstring injury) and running back Travis Etienne Jr., this offense has the potential to be one of the NFL's most underrated.
My biggest hesitation is that all six of New Orleans' wins came against teams that finished with losing records. Are they ready to beat the league's better teams? They'll likely have to if they want to win the division.
Would I be shocked if the Saints reached double-digit wins with a favorable fourth-place schedule? Not at all. But I also wouldn't be surprised if Shough regresses and this team ends up mediocre again. They're one of the more fascinating teams in the league because their range of outcomes feels incredibly wide.
15 SEED: Atlanta Falcons- PROJECTED RECORD | (6-11)
Best case: 10-7 record | Worst case: 4-13 record | Team MVP: Bijan Robinson
Is it too wild to say the Falcons are a top-12 quarterback away from being a Divisional Round playoff team? I really don't think so.
Unfortunately, they're putting out Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa to be thrown to the wolves. New head coach Kevin Stefanski will try to pull this franchise out of its cycle of mediocrity. Atlanta has finished with either seven or eight wins in seven of the last eight seasons (see what I did there). They're never bad enough to tank, but never good enough to be taken seriously. In the NFC South, though, even a modest improvement could be enough to win the division and make the playoffs.
Offensively, the talent is there. Drake London is a true WR1, Kyle Pitts finally started looking like the player everyone expected him to become, and Bijan Robinson, well, even my grandma could tell you he's special.
Defensively, the secondary should be one of the strengths of the team, led by Jessie Bates III and A.J. Terrell. The front seven has some moderate worries, but there's enough young talent that it could develop into an above-average unit if those players take the next step.
There may be a new head coach, but I still expect more of the same from Atlanta: winning games they have no business winning and losing games they have no business losing. The ATL way.
Others: (“rebuilding,” too many roster holes, or too inconsistent)
16 SEED: Arizona Cardinals- PROJECTED RECORD | (3-14)
Best case: 6-11 record | Worst case: 2-15 record | Team MVP: Jeremiyah Love
There’s only one NFC team that I believe has absolutely ZERO chance of making the postseason, and unfortunately, it’s the Arizona Cardinals.
Offensively, they could actually be pretty decent. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson give them a solid one-two punch at wide receiver, Trey McBride will continue to cement his claim as the league's best tight end, while the backfield features an impressive trio of rookie first-round pick Jeremiyah Love, Tyler Allgeier, and James Conner. That said, if a running back-needy team comes calling, don't be surprised if one of those backs becomes trade bait.
Defense is where things look like a dumpster can. Veteran safety Budda Baker and edge rusher Josh Sweat, who recorded 12 sacks in 2025, are the only true bright spots on a unit that lacks talent at nearly every level. Even if the defense exceeds expectations, it's hard to see Arizona finishing anywhere other than last in the NFC West. Seattle, Los Angeles, and San Francisco all have vastly more talented rosters and that's not likely to change anytime soon. It looks like it's going to be a long season...or two...or three in Glendale.
AFC:
1 SEED: Buffalo Bills- PROJECTED RECORD | (12-5); Confidence: 100%
Best case: 14-3 record | Worst case: 10-7 record | Team MVP: Josh Allen
If not last season, then when? Without Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson standing in their way during the 2025 postseason, it felt like a golden opportunity for the Bills to finally break through and reach the Big Game. Unfortunately, as they've done one too many times, they came up short in the biggest moments.
That proved to be the last straw for ownership. The stunning decision to fire long-time head coach Sean McDermott sent shockwaves through the league. Maybe it was a case of becoming a victim of your own success. I wasn't a huge fan of the move personally, but we've seen it work before. Just take a look at the NBA's New York Knicks just this summer. A new voice can sometimes be what pushes a talented team over the top. Now the question becomes: Is Joe Brady ready to handle the sky-high expectations that come with coaching a team led by Josh Allen? We'll find out.
D.J. Moore arrives in Buffalo to give Allen a true No. 1 target alongside Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman. James Cook III has continued to blossom into one of the league's best weapons out of the backfield. It'll be tough to replicate his 1,621-yard, 12 touchdown campaign, but another blockbuster season feels well within reach.
Defensively, the Bills should remain one of the AFC's better units, anchored up front by Greg Rousseau and Joey Bosa. Dee Alford is a sneaky-good addition in the slot and could end up making a bigger impact than people expect. He quietly put together an excellent season in Atlanta with three interceptions and 13 passes defended.
The time to win is now. The AFC gauntlet isn't getting any easier, and while Josh Allen isn't completely exempt of blame, he's done just about everything you could ask of a franchise quarterback. The question is whether the Bills can finally do their part and get him over the hump?
Biggest win: Week 16 vs New England
Most Surprising Loss: Week 6 @ Las Vegas
2 SEED: Denver Broncos- PROJECTED RECORD | (11-6); Confidence: 85%
Best case: 14-3 record | Worst case: 10-7 record | Team MVP: Bo Nix
What if Bo Nix didn't get hurt in the Divisional Round? That's the question every Broncos fan is going to be asking themselves for the next few years.
After their climb to the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a 14-3 record, Denver has a real shot to run it back. Now, I'll be the first to tell you they caught some breaks. The Broncos went an absurd 11-2 in one-score games, an NFL record. History says that the following year will usually bring some bad luck in that category so some additional losses might be in the forecast. It doesn't mean I'm not buying in on another dazzling season from them, though.
Denver went out and got speedy receiver Jaylen Waddle to pair with Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin, so I don't really have many concerns about the passing game. The rushing attack is where things get a little questionable. Neither J.K. Dobbins nor RJ Harvey really moved the needle, and letting Javonte Williams walk looked like the right call at the time. Looking back? Oof. If they want to win the division again, they have to get more out of the backfield.
Defensively...what is there even to say? This unit is loaded like a Taco Bell bean burrito. Patrick Surtain II erases your WR1. Nik Bonitto (14 sacks) makes quarterbacks want to lay in an ice bath for a week. Zach Allen is a menace. Jonathon Cooper is always a problem. Any questions, class?
Legendary coach Sean Payton deserves a ton of credit for what he's built in such a short amount of time. With the core they're building, it should, once again, be a fun season for the Mile High City.
Biggest win: Week 2 vs Philadelphia
Most Surprising Loss: Week 15 @ Las Vegas
3 SEED: Baltimore Ravens- PROJECTED RECORD | (11-6); Confidence: 85%
Best case: 12-5 record | Worst case: 9-8 record | Team MVP: Lamar Jackson
A new era begins in Baltimore as former Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter takes over for John Harbaugh, who spent the last 18 seasons leading the Ravens. Sometimes, a change is necessary, even for one of the NFL's most stable organizations. With Lamar Jackson still in the middle of his prime, the Ravens can't afford to waste the championship window that comes with having a generational quarterback.
The biggest question entering the season is the defense. There's no way around it—it let Baltimore down when it mattered most. New defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver has plenty on his plate. The addition of EDGE Trey Hendrickson (let's not revisit the Maxx Crosby saga) should provide a major boost to the pass rush, but the secondary has to take a significant step forward if this team wants to contend for a Super Bowl.
Marlon Humphrey earned All-Pro honors in 2024, but he didn't resemble that player last season, leading the league in passing yards allowed in coverage. Nate Wiggins and Malaki Starks also endured growing pains and will need to develop quickly. If the secondary doesn't improve, Baltimore's championship aspirations will likely fall short.
Fortunately, the offense should once again be among the league's best. With two-time MVP Lamar Jackson orchestrating the attack and Derrick Henry bulldozing defenses, the Ravens should field one of the NFL's top-five rushing offenses. If the defense can simply hold up its end of the bargain, this team has everything it needs to advance far in the playoffs.
Biggest win: Week 18 vs Pittsburgh
Most Surprising Loss: Week 6 @ Cleveland
4 SEED: Houston Texans- PROJECTED RECORD | (10-7); Confidence: 80%
Best case: 12-5 record | Worst case: 8-9 record | Team MVP: Will Anderson, Jr.
What happens when a game-breaking defense joins forces with a wildly inconsistent offense? That, my friend, is the Houston Texans.
I think it's a given the Texans are a playoff team as long as this defense keeps playing at an elite level. The DeMeco Ryans–Matt Burke head coach/defensive coordinator duo has built one of the best defenses in football, and Texans fans should be hoping they don't change a thing. This is one of the few defenses where it's genuinely hard to point out any major flaws
*inhale* In 2025, Houston finished second in points allowed, first in total defense, fourth against the run, top five in takeaways, and top 10 in sacks. *exhale* I'm not sure what else you could ask for. A pass-rush duo of Will Anderson Jr. (12 sacks) and Danielle Hunter (15 sacks) is enough to keep any offensive coordinator awake at night.
The offense, however, is a completely different story.
This unit has taken a noticeable step back since C.J. Stroud's phenomenal rookie season, and the playoff loss exposed just how much work still needs to be done. With Joe Mixon's career likely over, Houston brought in David Montgomery from Detroit for a 2026 fourth-round pick. Pairing Montgomery with second-year back Woody Marks should give the running game a much-needed boost.
There's no reason this team can't follow a path similar to the 2025 Seahawks: lean on a dominant defense while asking the offense to simply be good enough. But that starts with Stroud. He has to execute at a higher level this season, or legitimate questions about his long-term future will start to arise. When your defense is this incredible, you have to maximize your championship window. It's better to keep an elite defense intact and find the missing piece at quarterback than settle for years of offensive mediocrity.
Right now, Houston feels like a team that's hit a Divisional Round ceiling. Whether they finally break through to the franchise's first AFC Championship Game will depend almost entirely on the offense. If it can't take that next step, an offensive overhaul may be the only way to turn the Texans into legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
Biggest win: Week 1 vs Buffalo
Most Surprising Loss: Week 5 @ Tennessee
5 SEED: New England Patriots- PROJECTED RECORD | (11-6); Confidence: 85%
Best case: 14-3 record | Worst case: 9-8 record | Team MVP: Drake Maye
"The Schedule" doesn't get you into the playoffs. Great coaching, an elite defense, and a young superstar quarterback do. If you have that formula, you're going to be in the playoffs...and in the Patriots' case, competing for a Super Bowl more often than not. New England is wayyyy ahead of schedule, and if you were laughing at their failures a few seasons ago, you might have a frown on your face for the next decade.
Drake Maye, last year's MVP runner-up, has ascended to stardom quicker than anyone could've hoped. He can make every throw, he's a humble leader, and he's exactly the kind of player every franchise dreams of finding. The scariest part? That was only his first full season as a pro starter.
Now he has a true No. 1 receiver in A.J. Brown, giving him the reliable target this offense has been missing. That's not to say Mack Hollins, DeMario Douglas, and Romeo Doubs aren't quality players, they absolutely are, but Brown is just a different beast.
The defense was incredible last year, and Christian Gonzalez's Super Bowl performance will be forgotten by a lot of people, but not by me. He's already become a top-five cornerback in the league, and he still has room to grow. That seems to be the theme of this Patriots team: young, hungry, and scary.
Now, back to "The Schedule."
Some people expect regression, and I'm actually in that camp, at least when it comes to the overall record. Not because I think they'll be worse, but because they'll have a true target on their backs.
With games against the Chiefs, Bills (twice), Seahawks, the entire NFC North, Chargers, and Jaguars, there aren't many weeks where they can take a breather. If they make the playoffs this year, they would've definitely earned it. But I have no doubt they'll be right back in the postseason, and once they're there, they'll be fighting to get back to the Big Dance.
Biggest win: Week 13 vs Buffalo
Most Surprising Loss: Week 7 @ Chicago
6 SEED: Cincinnati Bengals- PROJECTED RECORD | (10-7); Confidence: 55%
Best case: 12-5 record | Worst case: 8-9 record | Team MVP: Joe Burrow
It hasn't quite felt like it, but the Bengals are already three seasons removed from their last playoff appearance in 2022, when Cincinnati was just one quarter away from reaching a second straight Super Bowl.
Since then, it's been one catastrophe after another for franchise quarterback Joe Burrow. His injury history has been staggering: 2020 (torn ACL, MCL, and PCL), 2021 (MCL sprain), 2023 (right calf strain and torn wrist ligaments), and 2025 (Grade 3 turf toe). If Cincinnati wants to break through in the AFC again, Burrow has to stay healthy for a full season. In an AFC this loaded, there's simply no margin for error.
Still, I'm going to believe in them one more time. Fool me once, fool me twice...
If the Bengals miss the playoffs again in 2026, it feels like a near certainty that Zac Taylor will get the axe. Wasting the primes of Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase should be considered a federal crime. We already know the offense is straight up lethal. The real question is whether the defense can simply be competent, not needing to be top five (although that would be nice), just somewhere in the middle of the pack instead of finishing in the league's bottom quarter like it has the past two seasons.
I like the moves that Cinci made this offseason. Adding Dexter Lawrence and Jonathan Allen should completely reshape the interior defensive line, while second-round pick from Texas A&M Cashius Howell is an intriguing developmental EDGE with the potential to become a future starter. On offense, the biggest addition might actually be one that doesn't get discussed enough in Orlando Brown Jr. Protecting Burrow's blind side makes him one of the most important players on the roster. Bringing back Joe Flacco as the backup quarterback also gives Cincinnati valuable insurance if Burrow misses time again, and chances are, he'll be needed.
It's not 'Super Bowl championship or bust' for the Bengals this season, but it absolutely is playoffs...or else.
Biggest win: Week 17 vs Baltimore
Most Surprising Loss: Week 9 @ Atlanta
7 SEED: Kansas City Chiefs- PROJECTED RECORD | (10-7); Confidence: 70%
Best case: 12-5 record | Worst case: 9-8 record | Team MVP: Patrick Mahomes
Over the last decade, there hasn't been a franchise more successful than the Kansas City Chiefs. Prior to last season, KC had won nine consecutive AFC West titles, reached at least the AFC Championship Game in each of the previous seven seasons, and won three Super Bowls in five appearances. So obviously, last season came as a major stunner when the Chiefs finished with just six wins and weren't anywhere close to championship contention.
Patrick Mahomes suffered a season-ending torn ACL in Week 15 against the Chargers, but even before then, Kansas City wasn't looking like a playoff contender, let alone a Super Bowl one. Losing eight of their final nine games put some real doubt into the future of this dynastic run. Is the Chiefs' unprecedented run finally coming to an end, or will they get right back to handling business? I'd expect somewhere in the middle.
Kansas City is going to have to overcome some roster deficiencies. Rashee Rice needs to stay on the field and out of trouble because it's a bit lackluster at pass catcher after that. Travis Kelce isn't in his prime anymore, and while Xavier Worthy and Tyquan Thornton can certainly contribute, they're more complementary pieces than elite threats. More than ever, I expect the Chiefs to rely on their defense in several matchups against elite opponents, and that's not something that's been said very often during the Mahomes era. But for the time being, it may need to be a necessity to win ballgames.
As long as you have a healthy Mahomes, it's hard to see Kansas City missing the playoffs for a second consecutive season. However, it won't be easy...at all. Their schedule is loaded, featuring arguably the toughest five-game stretch in the league. They'll travel to Buffalo, Los Angeles to face the Rams, and Cincinnati before coming home to host the Patriots and 49ers. Yes, those are all in a row. Good luck with that. I didn't even mention having to make the trip to Seattle. And when they aren't navigating that gauntlet, they'll get a "breather" against division rivals Denver and Los Angeles, two teams that know them better than anyone.
That being said, I'm going to trust Andy Reid's coaching and the addition of Super Bowl LX MVP running back Kenneth Walker III to find a way to sneak back into the playoffs. I don't think this is a team that's competing for the #1 seed (although it wouldn't stun me), but if they can get in at any spot in the AFC, they'll instantly become the team NO ONE wants to face.
Biggest win: Week 15 vs New England
Most Surprising Loss: Week 2 vs Indianapolis
Bubble (any of these squads could make it in the field and I wouldn’t be surprised)
8 SEED: Los Angeles Chargers- PROJECTED RECORD | (10-7)
Best case: 12-5 record | Worst case: 8-9 record | Team MVP: Justin Herbert
I had a really hard time leaving a healthy Los Angeles team out of the postseason, especially knowing who's coming back. The problem isn't the Chargers, it's that the AFC is absolutely loaded. There are simply too many talented teams in this jam-packed conference. Regardless, the Chargers' offense is set to be ELECTRIC again in 2026.
The highly-anticipated return of right tackle Joe Alt and left tackle Rashawn Slater should completely transform an offensive line that looked more like the turnstiles at Disneyland Resort. They surrendered a laughable 60 SACKS last season, and somehow Justin Herbert still made it through the year...barely.
A healthy offensive line is also great news for sophomore running back Omarion Hampton, who is primed to have a BREAKOUT season. Behind an improved front, don't be surprised if he eclipses 1,200 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Herbert should also return to the 4,000-yard passing mark with Ladd McConkey and a finally-ascending Quentin Johnston leading the receiving corps. Throw in Oronde Gadsden as the next new-age tight end, and this offense has the firepower to excite the crowd. They'll need every bit of it in the AFC West.
Defensively, the Chargers are hoping to remain one of the league's better units after finishing fifth in total defense and ninth in scoring defense last season. However, the departure of defensive coordinator Jesse Minter to Baltimore is a significant loss, and this group will be tested.
This isn't a defense loaded with household names, but it's a disciplined, cohesive unit led by Khalil Mack, Tuli Tuipulotu, and Derwin James. That's ultimately what this season comes down to: if Los Angeles can remain a top-10 defense, they'll be back in the playoffs. If they slip into the middle of the pack, or worse...they'll likely find themselves battling for third place in the AFC West once again.
9 SEED: Jacksonville Jaguars- PROJECTED RECORD | (9-8)
Best case: 13-4 record | Worst case: 7-10 record | Team MVP: Trevor Lawrence
Can the Jags pounce on the AFC South again, or will they suffer a setback after an unexpected meteoric rise to the conference's elite squads?
I'm still very high on the future of this Jacksonville team, but I do have a couple of eyebrow raisers when it comes to their immediate 2026 outlook. This is a very talented roster that made some questionable offseason decisions. Losing linebacker Devin Lloyd (signed by Carolina in free agency) and running back Travis Etienne (1,107 rushing yards, 7 TDs) are major losses, and the Jaguars didn't exactly make splashy moves to replace them. Instead, they're betting on young talent to keep them afloat. Are rookie Bhayshul Tuten and fourth-year linebacker Ventrell Miller ready for primetime? Can they elevate a team coming off a 13-win season?
The Jaguars have lacked consistency from year to year, and that's part of what's keeping me from fully buying in. But head coach Liam Coen might just be a different breed. We saw what he did with Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay, and now he's done the same for an entire franchise in Jacksonville. Under Coen, the Jaguars set a franchise record with 55 touchdowns and became just the seventh team in NFL history to win 13 games with a first-year head coach. There's a "better-than-good" chance Coen makes me look silly and proves the AFC South belongs to Jacksonville for years to come.
General manager James Gladstone also isn't afraid to make big money moves. Trading a haul of picks to land two-way superstar Travis Hunter, returning from injury, in the 2025 NFL Draft showed exactly that. While Hunter will still see snaps on both sides of the ball, it's becoming increasingly clear that cornerback is where he'll make his biggest impact and honestly, I think that's where he's best suited anyway.
Trevor Lawrence still has plenty to work with offensively. Brian Thomas Jr. is solid, Parker Washington continues to develop into a reliable weapon, and Jakobi Meyers is one of the league's more underrated receivers. Don't forget Brenton Strange might be one of the NFL's most slept-on tight ends. With that group, Lawrence should have no problem lighting up defenses with his elite arm talent.
There's a ton to like heading into Coen's second season. The Jaguars took some moderate risks this offseason, but if their young players hit, they'll have every chance to prove last year's breakout was only the beginning.
10 SEED: Pittsburgh Steelers- PROJECTED RECORD | (9-8)
Best case: 10-7 record | Worst case: 7-10 record | Team MVP: Aaron Rodgers
The Steelers have finally done it. They've defeated mediocrity...or have they? Super Bowl-winning head coach Mike Tomlin is out, and in comes...Mike McCarthy?
I'm not bought in to the hire. Sure, McCarthy won a Super Bowl with the Packers back in the 2010 season, but what has he accomplished since? More playoff disappointments, much like what Steelers fans have grown accustomed to under Tomlin in recent years. Maybe a new voice is exactly what Pittsburgh needs to finally make a postseason run, but I'm pretty gosh darn skeptical.
Honestly, I'm not sure what the Steelers' long-term plan is. Everyone knows they aren't the favorites to win the Super Bowl, yet they could still finish with double-digit wins and nobody would be surprised. That's just who they've been.
With a tough, physical defense led by T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward, the Steelers should once again be competitive. Offensively, adding running back Rico Dowdle and receiver Michael Pittman Jr. to a group that already features D.K. Metcalf certainly gives them more firepower. It wouldn't shock me if they found a way to win another AFC North title or snagged the #7 seed in the AFC.
But I'll sound like a broken record: I think their ceiling is the Divisional Round at best. And even if they accomplish that in Rodgers' swan song, then what? Do they start over? Do they settle back into being a good-but-not-great team? That has to be exhausting for Steelers fans. They deserve more than another season that ends with the same questions.
11 SEED: Indianapolis Colts- PROJECTED RECORD | (8-9)
Best case: 10-7 record | Worst case: 6-11 record | Team MVP: Jonathan Taylor
From 7-1 to 8-9 and missing the playoffs. A historic collapse like no other. The falloff was truly tragic.
It's really hard to get excited about this team because they're stuck in one of the worst spots you can be in as an NFL franchise. They're not bad enough to land a top-five pick, but they're nowhere near good enough to seriously compete for a Super Bowl. They're basically a worse version of the previously mentioned Steelers, except instead of an average 42-year-old quarterback, they're rolling with a 29-year-old one.
What makes it even worse is they traded away their first-round picks in both 2026 and 2027 to acquire Sauce Gardner. And that's not a shot at Sauce as he's shown he can be one of the best corners in football. It's just an ultra-aggressive move for a team that's clearly more than one piece away. In a division with Houston's vaunted defense, a Jaguars team that finally seems to be figuring things out, and Cam Ward giving Tennessee legitimate hope for the future, standing still probably means getting left behind.
Lost in all of this is the reality that highly thought of quarterback Anthony Richardson just never became what so many thought he could be. The moment he checked himself out of the game because he was tired, I knew it was wraps for his time as the Colts' franchise quarterback. Sure, he's still on the roster, but it's hard to imagine the organization ever fully trusting him again.
He was drafted as a project, and maybe Indy didn't give him enough time. But maybe he was just TOO raw. That's always the risk when you're betting on high-upside traits over proven polished production (hey, I should trademark that [PPP]). Anyways, the 49ers took that same gamble with Trey Lance. The difference is they somehow lucked into Brock Purdy, who turned out to be anything but "Mr. Irrelevant."
Now it's Daniel Jones' team, at least for the time being. He's recovering well and actually fits what the Colts want to do: run the football behind a solid offensive line and let Jonathan Taylor carry the offense. I'm not exactly optimistic they'll be in the playoff hunt come December, but if they can somehow bottle up what they had during that 7-1 start in 2025, I can't completely write 'em off.
Others: (“rebuilding,” too many roster holes, or too inconsistent)
12 SEED: Las Vegas Raiders- PROJECTED RECORD | (6-11)
Best case: 7-10 record | Worst case: 2-15 record | Team MVP: Ashton Jeanty
Welp. The Pete Carroll era went nowhere, but maybe the Klint Kubiak era will. Starting by landing the ultimate team player in former Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza certainly helps their chances of climbing out of the AFC cellar.
For the Raiders, there's really only one metric that defines a successful season: Did they develop Mendoza enough to believe he's the franchise quarterback? Vet Kirk Cousins will likely open the year as the starter, giving Mendoza time to adjust to the NFL without being completely thrown into the fire. This isn't a race to the finish, and nobody realistically expects the Raiders to be competing for a Super Bowl in 2026.
Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty should both see heavy workloads and thrive in Kubiak's creative offensive system. And while the Raiders finished 2-15 last season, I think improved quarterback play alone makes this team better than most people expect. It's easy to forget their defense still ranked 14th in the league, remarkably impressive for a team that ended up with the No. 1 overall pick.
Sure, they had their share of ugly losses, but they were also much more competitive than their record suggests. They lost 30-29 in overtime to a 13-win Jaguars team, fell by just two points to Houston and its elite defense, lost both games to Denver by one possession, and came up one point short against the playoff-bound Chicago. One of their two wins also came against the Super Bowl runner-up Patriots. This roster isn't a lost cause.
Give it two years, another strong draft class in 2027, and continued development at quarterback, and we'll be talking about this franchise very differently. Bet on it.
13 SEED: Tennessee Titans- PROJECTED RECORD | (4-13)
Best case: 7-10 record | Worst case: 3-14 record | Team MVP: Cam Ward
Rebuilds take time, but I like the direction Tennessee is heading. Realistically, the Titans are probably still a year or two away from breaking into the AFC's top tier. Then again, the NFL has a way of making the unexpected a reality.
Cam Ward might've been the quietest No. 1 overall pick at quarterback that I can remember. With another offseason under his belt, I expect him to look more polished while continuing to flash the jaw-dropping arm talent that made him the top choice. The cross-body throws still make me nervous, but they're also part of what makes him so entertaining. He can make every throw on the field. Improvement in efficiency will be the biggest thing to watch, but adding rookie receiver Carnell Tate and slot receiver Wan'Dale Robinson should give the passing game a boost alongside the steady presence of running back Tony Pollard. If everything clicks, I could absolutely see Tennessee living in the six-to-seven win range this season.
The defense remains a major work in progress, but Jeffery Simmons and Cedric Gray give new head coach Robert Saleh a solid foundation to build around. Hiring a defensive-minded coach makes sense because he'll have to get creative and squeeze the most out of a roster that still has plenty of holes. But plant enough seeds in those holes, develop the young talent, and a few of them might grow into something much bigger than anyone expected. My biggest concern is the secondary, which has holes like the Swiss cheese on my Reuben sandwich. Still, it's an incredibly young and moldable unit. This season is less about chasing immediate results and more about figuring out who can be part of the future.
14 SEED: Cleveland Browns- PROJECTED RECORD | (4-13)
Best case: 7-10 record | Worst case: 2-15 record | Team MVP: Quinshon Judkins
Man, it's painful having to write the same story about the "Factory of Sadness" every single season.
The frustrating part is that Cleveland isn't a roster devoid of talent, it's an organization devoid of leadership and identity.
It doesn't take much to see that quarterbacks Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders, and Dillon Gabriel aren't the future of this franchise. And the one loyal superstar they did have is now chasing a Super Bowl on the West Coast. But instead of piling on with the usual doom and gloom, I'll focus on two bright spots. Let's be honest: we all know Cleveland isn't making the playoffs this year, and they'll probably finish last in the AFC North for what feels like the billionth time. Y'all really should've kept Baker...
Defensively, linebacker Carson Schwesinger, the 2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, has already established himself as a cornerstone of the franchise. After recording 156 total tackles as a rookie, it's safe to say Browns fans will be hearing his name for the next decade. Offensively, Quinshon Judkins is working his way back from a dislocated right ankle and fractured fibula suffered in Week 16. If he returns to form, his explosiveness and playmaking ability could become a key piece of Cleveland's future. Outside of that, good luck Cleveland. There's always 2027.
15 SEED: New York Jets- PROJECTED RECORD | (3-14)
Best case: 7-10 record | Worst case: 3-14 record | Team MVP: Garrett Wilson
J-E-T-S S-U-C-K. Oh boy, Geno Smith is really going to get the crowd hype. There's a reason he needed to leave the Jets to become halfway decent, and now he's starting the final chapter of his career in the place it'll probably end.
Although this isn't a playoff team, I like the moves they made this offseason through trades and the draft. Defensively, the swap of defensive end Jermaine Johnson II for defensive tackle T'Vondre Sweat feels like a mutually beneficial trade on paper between the Titans and Jets. The first of 3 first-round picks was used on EDGE David Bailey who I'm extremely high on. And it's never a bad thing to add a reliable safety like Minkah Fitzpatrick. He's not in his prime anymore, but he's still a quality option for a secondary that finished with ZERO interceptions last year. Yes, zero. Like...how do you actually do that?
The strategy for the Jets was clearly to build up the offense, and they did with some intriguing rookie additions. I'm a big fan of former Oregon tight end Kenyon Sadiq, who, along with Mason Taylor, should give Smith some dependable options between the hashes. Sadiq joins Omar Cooper Jr. as another 2026 first-round pick who'll try to carve out a role in the slot alongside Garrett Wilson. The running back position is in good hands with Breece Hall, so the pieces are there for a pretty competent offense.
However, it'll be hard for this Jets unit to get off the ground (pun fully intended) if the offensive line continues to be brutal. They gave up SIXTY sacks last year, which obviously isn't going to cut it. Tackles Armand Membou and Olu Fashanu have to improve, or it'll be yet another lackluster offense.
The Jets haven't made the playoffs since 2010. And when we circle back at the end of the season, I expect that stat to remain the same.
16 SEED: Miami Dolphins- PROJECTED RECORD | (2-15)
Best case: 5-12 record | Worst case: 0-17 record | Team MVP: De'Von Achane
A sure-fire bottom-three team if I've ever seen one. They legitimately have a shot to become the first team in NFL history to go 0-17. Ironically, their best chance at a win might come in Week 1 against the Raiders. They also get the Jets twice, so maybe they steal one of those. Outside of that? I genuinely don't know where another win comes from.
De'Von Achane might rush for 2,500 yards, not just because he's that good, but because this offense will have no choice but to feed him 40 times a game. Fantasy football managers, target this man.
The Malik Willis experiment will probably end in disappointment, though it won't be for a lack of effort from Willis himself. This roster just doesn't have enough talent. The defense is going to be horrendous, and the front seven might be the worst in football. Jeff Hafley feels like a one-and-done head coach. Arch Manning...save this franchise. Save it NOW.
Notable Season Trends
NFC:
Panthers lose five straight from Weeks 8-12, but make postseason
Seahawks go undefeated from Weeks 13-17
Lions only take one loss from Weeks 6-14
Cowboys go undefeated from Weeks 8-12
Cardinals go winless from Weeks 3-14
Vikings win final four games
Buccaneers start 4-0
Falcons start 0-4
Rams start 11-1
Eagles start 9-1
AFC:
Bengals start 0-3; five game winning streak from Weeks 10-14
Dolphins clinch #1 pick in 2027 NFL Draft
Broncos go undefeated from Weeks 6-14
Ravens go undefeated from Weeks 9-14
Jets lose final nine games of the year
Bills go undefeated from Weeks 7-12
Patriots start slow at 1-3
Raiders start 0-5
Colts start 3-0
Top 5 Games of 2026-2027
Patriots @ Seahawks [Week 1]- Any time we get a Super Bowl rematch, it's going to be highly anticipated. Can the Patriots use the motivation of last year's defeat in the big game and make an early season statement? Or will the Seahawks start their path to defend their title with another beatdown? It'll start with how the Pats' offensive line can make changes from their last time on the field.
Bills @ Rams [Week 5- MNF]- Super Bowl 61 preview? It's certainly possible. Two elite QBs go toe-to-toe in primetime.
Ravens @ Bills [Week 8]- Not sure how this matchup didn't get slotted for Sunday Night Football. #MissedOpportunity.
Rams @ Seahawks [Week 16- Black Friday]- The NFC West will likely come down to the two regular season matchups between these squads. If the two matchups in Seattle vs the Rams were any indication, we are in for another classic.
Packers @ Bears [Christmas Day]- The best present under the tree is watching one of the best rivalries in sports in what could certainly have playoff implications. There's not too much more you can ask for.
Most Consequential Games of the 2026-2027 Season
*based on my predictions
Week 6/14: Chiefs/Raiders over Chargers- Sitting at 10 wins would be a solid season for the Chargers but when you miss the playoffs, it won't feel like it. Losing to the Chiefs? Understandable. But it stings when that game could determine your playoff fate. Now, losing to the Raiders. Major letdown. LA seems to lose a random game each season and this one will cost 'em. Need the divisional games for the crucial tie-breakers.
Week 4/13: Bills vs Patriots- For the next decade, prepare for war. Josh Allen will step up to narrowly take the division crown back from New England.
Week 12: Lions over Bears [Thanksgiving]- I'd be willing to bet the NFC North comes down to one of these matchups in primetime. Thanksgiving afternoon could go a long way to determining the playoff picture.
Week 18: Ravens over Steelers- Deja Vu? The Ravens will have a chance to avenge their Week 18 loss last year to the Steelers which kicked them out of the playoffs. Win this one and they win the North as the #3 seed. Lose and be sitting at home. The margins have never been tighter.
Week 18: Rams over Seahawks- A division that I have no doubt will come down to the final week of the regular season.
Playoff Predictions
AFC Playoff Field:
#1. Buffalo Bills (12-5)
#2. Denver Broncos (11-6)
#3. Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
#4. Houston Texans (10-7)
#5. New England Patriots (11-6)
#6. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)
#7. Kansas City Chiefs (10-7)
NFC Playoff Field:
#1. Los Angeles Rams (14-3)
#2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-5)
#3. Detroit Lions (11-6)
#4. Carolina Panthers (8-9)
#5. Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
#6. San Francisco 49ers (11-6)
#7. Dallas Cowboys (10-7)
Wild Card Round:
Divisional Round:
Conference Championship:
Two preseason darlings face off in the Super Bowl, both with aspirations of putting a cherry on top of what would already be a stellar campaign. It’s safe to say neither franchise would be satisfied with its season ending without some hardware headed back home.
For the Rams, a win would mean their second Super Bowl title in five years and Stafford’s second ring. Win this one, and that Hall of Fame gold jacket feels all but a certainty. And if this is indeed the end of the road for Stafford in 2027, riding off into the sunset with another Lombardi Trophy would be a fitting way to close out his illustrious career.
For Buffalo, this Lombardi Trophy would finally deliver the moment a fanbase has desperately been waiting for. Years of heartbreak. Years of false hope. Years of watching the carrot dangle just out of reach with one playoff disappointment after another. An 0-4 record in the Super Bowl is hard enough to stomach, but repeatedly getting so close without breaking through is an even tougher pill to swallow when you have an MVP quarterback in his prime.
The biggest X-factor for me is simple: Can Buffalo’s defense slow down the Rams’ offense? I’m not convinced it can. Josh Allen is one of the league’s best playmakers and is capable of putting the Bills on his back, but like most gunslingers, the spectacular can occasionally come with a head-scratching mistake. Against a vaunted LA defense, one of those mistakes could be the difference.
Buffalo will finally break through and get back to the big game, but with the Super Bowl in Los Angeles, I think the Rams’ home-field advantage and offensive firepower will ultimately be too much to overcome.
The pick: Los Angeles Rams 31, Buffalo Bills 24
Winner: Los Angeles Rams (3rd title in franchise history)
Super Bowl MVP: Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams
NFL Awards
MVP: Josh Allen, QB, Bills
OPOY: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions
DPOY: Myles Garrett, EDGE, Rams
OROY: Jadarian Price, RB, Seahawks
DROY: Caleb Downs, S, Cowboys
CPOY: Kyler Murray, QB, Vikings
Coach of the Year: Sean McVay, Rams
Fantasy Player of the Year: Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons
Breakout Offensive Player: Colston Loveland, TE, Bears
Breakout Defensive Player: Cedric Gray, LB, Titans
Best Offense: Los Angeles Rams
Best Defense: Houston Texans
Haters Gonna Hate (an imaginary award where a highly scrutinized player proves people wrong): Kyler Murray, QB, Vikings
Most Improved Team: Kansas City Chiefs
Biggest Surprise: Detroit Lions
Biggest Disappointment: Green Bay Packers
Team on the Rise: Tennessee Titans
Biggest Spoiler: Las Vegas Raiders
Game of the Year: Rams @ Seahawks Week 16
Upset of the Year: Raiders over Bills Week 6
Bonus: Preseason NFL Quarterback Rankings (2026 edition)
My rankings are based on postseason success, consistency, "clutchness,"and statistics. The word "potential" isn't factored into these rankings. Any tie-breakers will be determined by how last season went. This is a list of where "X player" is RIGHT NOW and not a projection (sorry rookies, you'll start at the bottom).
The Best of the Best
#1. Patrick Mahomes, KC [Last Year: 1]- One down season isn't enough for me to knock Patrick Mahomes off the top spot. He's still the NFL's most feared quarterback. If I need one drive to win it all, I know exactly who I'm taking.
#2. Matthew Stafford, LAR [Last Year: 9]- The reigning MVP was nearly unstoppable in 2025, dicing up elite defenses. What will he do for an encore? We know he only has another year or two left in his career but there's no signs of him slowing down.
#3. Josh Allen, BUF [Last Year: 3]- Until he wins in the playoffs, I can't put him at the top spot yet. The only thing missing for Allen at this stage of his career is a Super Bowl berth. He'll get there...I believe. He's too talented not to get over the hump. The "Peyton Manning" career arc is likely his destiny.
#4. Lamar Jackson, BAL [Last Year: 2]- The two-time MVP is still one of the league's most feared threats. An injury-riddled 2025 season notwithstanding, Lamar is primed for another mega season.
#5. Joe Burrow, CIN [Last Year: 5]- When Burrow is upright, it's clear that he's a bona fide superstar. He can make every throw, has the poise in big moments, and the elite stats to back it up. The biggest question has never been his talent, it's whether he can stay healthy for a full season.
Franchise Quarterbacks
#6. Jared Goff, DET [Last Year: 6]- The model of consistency. Goff has over 4,400 passing yards and at least 29 passing TDs in each of the last four seasons. He's one of the few traditional pocket passers left of this era that creates havoc game in and game out.
#7. Drake Maye, NE [Last Year: 24]- It was a sour ending for Maye's sophomore campaign but it doesn't take away from how special the former Tar Heel played for the Patriots, finishing as runner up in the MVP race, accumulating 4,400 yards and 31 touchdowns. And don't forget about one of the prettiest deep balls in the league. At just 23 years old, expect Maye to be a staple atop these rankings for years to come.
#8. Dak Prescott, DAL [Last Year: 12]- He's America's Team quarterback and naturally he's going to get slandered but it's pretty obvious that when he's healthy, he's one of the premiere passers in the league. The postseason failures has always been a cause for concern but Dallas could do a heck of a lot worse than what Prescott has given them the last decade. He's a top ten quarterback whether or not you like it, haters.
#9. Justin Herbert, LAC [Last Year: 8]- A minuscule drop in the rankings, but it’s worth remembering that Herbert played a large portion of the season without both starting tackles and his starting running back. The biggest issue now is getting the playoff monkey off his back, because Herbert is 0–3 in the biggest games of his career. He blew a 27–0 lead against Jacksonville, threw four interceptions against Houston, and managed only three points against New England. His immense arm talent and leadership are undeniable, but the lack of clutchness and postseason success is weighing him down here.
#10. Jalen Hurts, PHI [Last Year: 5]- A year after winning the Super Bowl, Hurts actually improved in one key area: he threw a career-high 25 touchdown passes while once again taking care of the football, finishing with just six interceptions (four of which came in one rough outing). But outside of that, the passing numbers left plenty to be desired. He had nine games with fewer than 200 passing yards, and the week-to-week consistency still wasn't always there. That said, Hurts has now been to two Super Bowls and has consistently shown he rises to the occasion when the stakes are highest. At the end of the day, that's what matters most: finding a way to win.
#11. Sam Darnold, SEA [Last Year: 20]- If at first you don't succeed, try, try, try again.
The third overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft always had the talent, but it's clear that the right situation was all Sam Darnold needed to break out. He proved he wasn't just a one-season wonder in Minnesota, following it up with another 4,000-yard passing season and capping off a strong 2025 campaign with a Super Bowl championship in Seattle.
With 60 regular-season touchdown passes over the last two seasons, it's time to put the "ghosts" to bed. Despite leading the league in turnovers by a quarterback in '25, Darnold deserves his flowers after half a decade of slander.
#12. Brock Purdy, SF [Last Year: 11]- Some call him a Shanahan system quarterback, I call him smart. Purdy is one of the most steady, reliable passers. He isn't respected enough. It's only a matter of time before a Super Bowl championship is in his future.
#13. Caleb Williams, CHI [Last Year: 22]- The Iceman COMETH. One of the "clutchest" seasons in NFL history. The scrambles. The poise. The comebacks. And the fact we get to see this for the next decade-plus in all likelihood in the Windy City? Chicago, you finally have your franchise QB.
#14. Jordan Love, GB [Last Year: 14]- The Packers might be the most spoiled franchise when it comes to quarterbacks. From Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers, and now Jordan Love, they've somehow found another guy who could lead the franchise for the next 5–10 years. He'll have the occasional boneheaded mistake, but he'll also make the ridiculous off-platform throws Packers fans have been accustomed to seeing. It's simply not fair.
#15. Trevor Lawrence, JAX [Last Year: 17]- A career year for T-Law came at the perfect time. From the NFL's anointed golden child to a boneheaded disappointment, he's worked his way back to becoming the clear face of the franchise. The Jaguars have a bright future, and Lawrence is a huge reason why.
#16. Baker Mayfield, TB [Last Year: 7]- An injury-plagued season almost certainly played a major role in Baker Mayfield's dip in production during the second half of the year so I'll give some grace. That doesn't change who he is: a tough-nosed gunslinger who's spent his entire career overcoming adversity and finding ways to keep his team in the playoff hunt.
#17. Jayden Daniels, WAS [Last Year: 13]- Probably a bit low for Daniels talent-wise, but after a stellar rookie campaign that earned him the 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award, he experienced a bit of a sophomore slump due to inconsistent play and injuries. Still, his gorgeous deep ball and ability to extend plays with timely scrambles make him a force to be reckoned with. I'll gladly move him back up the list once he puts together another healthy, productive season.
#18. Bo Nix, DEN [Last Year: 22]- One injury away from likely playing in the Super Bowl in just his second season, Nix has brought stability and leadership to the Broncos. While consistency can still be an issue at times, he's shown more than enough to believe he'll be a top-echelon quarterback within the next year or two. Bottom line: with this defense behind him, Nix is a championship-caliber QB.
Time to Prove It
#19. Aaron Rodgers, PIT [Last Year: 18]- It's tough to rank a future first-ballot Hall of Famer like Rodgers at this stage of his career. He almost deserves his own tier because he doesn't have much left to prove, but he's also no longer a franchise quarterback. Instead, he'll serve as a bridge for whoever takes over in Pittsburgh in 2027. Rodgers should still be efficient and capable of managing games, but he's no longer the type of quarterback who can consistently carry a team the way he did during his prime in Green Bay. For the Steelers, he feels like the perfect fit to continue what's become their recent formula: win 9–11 games, make the playoffs, and exit in the first round.
#20. C.J. Stroud, HOU [Last Year: 10]- Since his rookie campaign, Stroud has trended in the wrong direction. He has the weapons and a great defense behind him to look good in the win column and that fact has maybe masked some of his recent struggles. On a worse team, who knows what the narrative would be? Now it's time to show up in the big moments. After Year One, it looked like the former Buckeyes' trajectory was a sure-fire top ten quarterback. His recent playoff performances in 2025 cast a bit of doubt into his Texans' future as the long-term answer but I have no doubt he can turn it around.
#21. Bryce Young, CAR [Last Year: 23]- Say what you want about Young's inconsistency, but he is insanely clutch just like he was at Alabama. In Bryce Young's 14 career wins, 12 of them have come on a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter. Year Four will be the tell all to see if he's finally turned a corner under Canales' leadership or his physical limitations will ultimately hold him back.
#22. Kyler Murray, MIN [Last Year: 16]- If he can't win here, he probably won't win anywhere. Murray is the definition of a "time to prove it" player. His inconsistent accuracy and decision-making under pressure will need to improve if he hopes to stick around as a starting quarterback. Head coach Kevin O'Connell will likely put Murray in the best position to succeed by utilizing his mobility and playmaking ability to reignite his career.
#23. Daniel Jones, IND [Last Year: 28]- A career season in the making for the former Giant was cut short due to a torn achilles late in the season, which led to Philip Rivers coming out of retirement to 'save' the Colts. Jones is yet another quarterback that is starting to prove that with the right system and competent coaching that you can thrive and be a net positive to an offense.
#24. Jacoby Brissett, ARI [Last Year: NR]- He's a reliable stopgap and consistently one of the league's best backup quarterbacks. We know he's not the Cardinals' long-term answer, but he'll be a great teammate and keep the offense humming well enough in garbage time to make your fantasy football team happy. (Yes, we're looking at you, Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. managers.)
#25. Tyler Shough, NO [Last Year: 32]- It was a small sample size, but the former Louisville Cardinal made some big throws and won four of his final five starts. Yeah, none of those wins came against teams with winning records, so we'll find out soon enough if he's actually that guy. But the lights never looked too bright for him. He looked like he belonged. Now, with a full offseason as the clear-cut starter, I'd expect Shough to take another step toward becoming the Saints' franchise QB.
#26. Jaxson Dart, NYG [Last Year: NR]- Dart gave some excitement to a franchise that's been looking for its next star quarterback since Eli Manning. He's got the personality and is an incredible playmaker and play extender. However, he still has plenty of room to grow as a pocket passer, especially with his on-schedule throws and operating within the structure of the offense. Most of his highlights come from scrambling and playing "backyard football."
Despite how dynamic he is, that reckless style won't hold up over a full 17-game season and will get him sidelined quickly. It'll be up to the coaching staff to help develop him into a more complete quarterback and get the most out of his raw talent as he enters his sophomore campaign.
#27. Cam Ward, TEN [Last Year: 31]- From the laser-beam throws to the ill-advised passes across his body to the jaw-dropping deep balls, Ward was exactly as advertised, and why he was drafted No. 1 overall. He's an immensely talented passer with a few flaws that still need to be ironed out. We knew his rookie season would be bumpy given the lack of offensive talent around him, but with reinforcements arriving in both personnel and the coaching staff, I expect Ward to make a sizeable jump up this QB list in 2027.
#28. Tua Tagovailoa/Michael Penix, Jr., ATL [Last Year: 15/29]- Two below-average, injury-prone, left-handed quarterbacks who were drafted in the top 10 of their respective draft classes. It's probably Tua's job to lose, but it's also way too early to give up on Penix.
I'm sure both will play in 2026, but I doubt the product on the field will look much different regardless of who's tossing those hospital passes. The Falcons will likely be picking in the top 10 again and be in contention to draft a new man behind center. Expect both of these players to be a segue into the next generation.
Bottom of the Barrel/Backup Caliber/Rookies
#29. Geno Smith, NYJ [Last Year: 19]- Back where it all started. Smith has been a bottom-of-the-barrel quarterback for most of his career, outside of his three solid seasons in Seattle, a team that always seems to get the best out of its players. The Seahawks likely saw the regression coming and got out while they could. The Raiders paid the price in 2025 as Geno threw 17 interceptions and undoubtedly left them with buyer's remorse. At 35 years old, with no signs of improvement in the later stages of his career, it looks like the critics are finally "writing back."
#30. Malik Willis, MIA [Last Year: NR]- It's the opportunity of a lifetime for Willis as he gets his first true chance to be a starting QB. After being a backup in Tennessee and Green Bay, it's time for him to show his true potential. Last year in Green Bay, he got to play limited snaps against the Bears late following a Jordan Love injury and then a stellar performance against the Ravens, going 18-21 and 288 yards in the air. It's hard to tell if he's a one game wonder or if he's a hidden gem waiting to be revealed. Miami's roster might not give him the best chance to shine but if he's at least decent, he could carve out a career as a reliable backup for the next few years, or maybe serve as the Dolphins' stop gap QB until they find 'the guy.'
#31. Deshaun Watson/Shedeur Sanders, CLE [Last Year: NR]- Another season of quarterback purgatory for the Browns. It's hard to say that Sanders will be the answer in Cleveland with just 7 TDs and 10 INTs in eight games played in his rookie campaign. However, veteran Deshaun Watson will get a chance to throw back the clock to 2020, his last elite season before he fell off the map. Regardless of who's under center, it's likely going to be a rough season for the selected signal-caller in '26.
#32. Fernando Mendoza/Kirk Cousins, LV [Last Year: NR]- Per the rules, all rookie quarterbacks must start at the bottom. Mendoza had a masterful final collegiate season, leading the Indiana Hoosiers to a remarkable undefeated season. The 2025 Heisman Trophy winner aims to turn a Raiders' franchise around that hasn't won a playoff game since the 2002 season. He'll start the year on the bench in favor of the veteran Cousins but it's not a matter of 'if?' but 'when?' for Mendoza to take the reins of QB1.
Off list:
Justin Fields, Spencer Rattler, J.J. McCarthy, Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco
My Top 10 NFL Uniforms
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