Intro
A new era in Carolina Basketball is underway following Roy Williams' unexpected retirement on April 1st, 2021 (no, it wasn't an April Fools joke). In his place will be Hubert Davis, a former Carolina and NBA basketball player and an assistant coach under Williams. Tar Heel fans have been spoiled with decades of great coaching and players but can Davis carve out his own niche as he steps into a new role?
Since being hired, it was clear the Davis wanted to acquire "big men that can shoot" and they certainly got that with Oklahoma transfer Brady Manek and Marquette transfer Dawson Garcia added to the fold. They'll need both of them to step up as UNC has hopes of making a deep run in the NCAA Tournament as they haven't made it past the Sweet Sixteen since winning the championship in 2017. For most programs, that's fine but for Carolina, a championship-caliber roster is expected almost every season.
It is no secret that Roy Williams' teams were built on having two traditional big men and four-year players. UNC is usually a national leader in rebounding the basketball because of that. That being said, the game is evolving with "positionless" players and the increase of "one-and-done" rule and Davis can help evolve the program to adapt.
How will Hubert Davis perform in year one? How far can Carolina go in the NCAA Tournament? Who will be a surprise contributor to the team? Read on and find out...
Roster Analysis
Projected Starters
Caleb Love, point guard- Once projected as a lottery pick, Love hasn't quite lived up to the expectations of his five-star rating. Despite struggling with turnovers and inefficient shooting in 2020, Love showed his true potential in Durham, scoring a career-high 25 points, 9-16 from the floor, and 4-5 from three-point range against Duke. In year two, we should see a more confident guard out on the floor. I expect Love to be the most improved player on the Heels which should help elevate the play around him.
Kerwin Walton, shooting guard- Not many people expected Walton to start last year but he quickly emerged as a key contributor and three-point specialist. Shooting 42% from downtown, he may have been the difference in Carolina making the NCAA Tournament or not. However, I'm most interested in seeing how he's developed his game in the offseason outside of having just a perimeter shot. With other proven shooters being added in the offseason, he should get more opportunities to thrive and even improve on his percentages by keeping defenses honest.
Brady Manek, forward- At times, Carolina could not shoot a basketball into the ocean last year. With Davis' new system, the graduate transfer from Oklahoma could be the biggest beneficiary of 2021. He had a fantastic season last year, averaging three made three-pointers per game at a 44.5% clip. After Walton, the next highest percentage from deep was Andrew Platek at a measly 32.7% (not including Garrison Brooks). No bueno. I think this is where Manek will help the team the most.
Dawson Garcia, forward- The Heels saw firsthand what Dawson Garcia could do as he was the leading scorer in Marquette's 13 point victory on the road, shooting nearly 70% from the field. Garcia looked like he belonged last year as a freshman, shooting a very efficient 48% from the field. The Golden Eagles transfer has the capability of knocking down the occasional three as well which should give UNC some added flexibility in their rotations. I think he'll quickly become a fan favorite in Chapel Hill.
Armando Bacot, center- The face of Carolina Basketball and recognized on the 2021 Preseason First-Team All-ACC team, Bacot is ready to thrive in his junior season. There is not much to be said about the center from Richmond, Virginia. He was easily the most consistent player for the Heels last season and should only continue to get better.
Role Players
Leaky Black, guard/forward- The senior may end up starting when the first few games begin but I think the best spot for Leaky is to come off the bench. He never reached the peak that most fans expected him to be as his shooting isn't great. However, his defense will be a valuable asset. As far as the offense goes, he's not going to be a guy that creates a shot on his own but instead, will look to create opportunities through fast-break and second-chance scoring.
R.J. Davis, guard- In my eyes, Davis is the perfect sixth man for the Heels. Despite his small stature for college basketball (6'0, 170 lbs), he can play the 1 or 2 out on the floor. A main reason why UNC struggled last year was the youth of their guard play. Both Love and Davis were freshman last year and were thrown into the fire to produce early.
Anthony Harris, guard- It hasn't been the smoothest road for Harris with two combined ACL tears in high school and then again in his freshman year in college. He provided a spark off the bench last season. It was easy to see that any time he was inserted into the game, the offense improved.
Justin McKoy, forward-After transferring to Carolina for his junior season, it was just meant to be. The Cary, NC native was offered by Roy Williams' staff in high school but McKoy ended up choosing Virginia. Perhaps he can provide the intel needed to beat Virginia too... McKoy will be a key rotational piece that may only play 10-15 minutes but make a timely impact on the court. His career high in points is just 11 so expect just a few high energy plays.
Puff Johnson, forward- I'm curious to see where Johnson will fit into this team. He'll definitely need to earn his minutes but he should at least get the nod over the freshman to start off the year. He didn't play that much due to a toe injury in his first-year campaign so there is plenty of opportunity for growth. It's hard to project how Hubert Davis' rotations will look but I think we could see as many as ten players get at least ten minutes on the court and Johnson figures to take one of those spots.
The Freshman
D'Marco Dunn, guard- I doubt Dunn will get to play that much this year barring injuries but he shot well from three-point range in high school so if UNC continues to struggle from deep or guys like Black and Walton regress, Dunn may be forced into a key role sooner rather than later to generate some offense.
Dontrez Styles, guard, forward- Like Dunn, Styles probably won't see the court too much this year but learning from experienced guys at his position like Manek and McKoy can set him up for success. He can play a variety of positions on the court which could help the freshman earn a couple of valuable minutes by the end of the season.
Bench-Warmers
Ryan McAdoo (redshirt senior), Creighton Lebo (sophomore), Duwe Farris (junior)
Schedule Predictions
After an exhibition game against Elizabeth City State on Nov. 5th, the Heels start their championship quest with three non-conference games against Loyola (MD), Brown, and College of Charleston, all of which should be easy wins. They'll need to shake off the rust because the Hall of Fame tip-off games against #7 Purdue and either against #4 Villanova or #18 Tennessee will give fans an early glimpse on if Carolina has Final Four potential or a first-weekend exit. Winning at least one of these games should set the tone headed into December. I say UNC suffers their first loss of the season against Purdue but rebounds and upsets Tennessee or Villanova.
In the annual ACC/Big Ten challenge, the #6 Michigan Wolverines will come to town which is easily the biggest non-conference home game on the schedule. Win this and the hype will begin. I predict the Tar Heels upset the Wolverines for a close, statement win. Later in December, Johnny Juzang and the UCLA Bruins will take on Carolina in Las Vegas for a much anticipated showdown. In this one, I think UCLA will win comfortably, giving the Heels just just their second loss of the year.
A 9-3 or 10-2 start to the year going into the Virginia Tech home game on December 29th would be fantastic. I think 8-4 is the worst case scenario and 10-2 is the best case. UNC would've already played Georgia Tech on the road so this would actually be their second ACC game. Speaking of the ACC, it looks like Duke, Florida State, Virginia, Louisville, and North Carolina should be competing for the top of the ACC. In addition, teams like Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Syracuse, NC State, and Clemson have NCAA Tournament potential as well.
North Carolina has a few losing streaks that they would love to end in the 2021 season. Can Hubert Davis solve the UVA hex? UNC hasn't beaten the Hoos since 2015 so there is a lot of work to do to get past their tenacious defense. Clemson and Georgia Tech have surprisingly have a modest two game winning streak against the Heels, streaks that will need to end if Carolina hopes to reach their potential this season. The obvious answer to the most important game is against the Duke Blue Devils. It will be extremely difficult to beat the Devils in Coach K's final season so finding a way to split the contests would be a W.
Here are my W-L projections for the 20 ACC games for North Carolina.
Wins: vs. Duke, vs. Virginia Tech, @ NC State, vs. NC State, vs. Syracuse (Senior Night), vs. Pitt, @ Miami, @ Wake Forest, vs. Boston College, @ Georgia Tech, vs Georgia Tech, @ Boston College, vs Louisville
Losses: vs. Virginia, @ Louisville, @ Clemson, @ Virginia Tech, @ Duke, vs. Florida State, @ Notre Dame
Final Regular Season record: 22-9 (13-7 in ACC play) [record not including ACC Tournament]
Worst Case Scenario: Lose in Round of 64, finish fifth in the ACC
Best Case Scenario: Win ACC Regular Season title; Reach Final Four
PREDICTION: Sweet Sixteen appearance; #3 Seed in March Madness
Final Thoughts
There is a lot to be optimistic about in 2021 but I also caution fans to avoid the "championship or bust" mentality at least for this season. In Davis' first season, it will be necessary to have some patience. There may be mistakes or a dumb loss to a bottom-tier ACC team sprinkled in but that is part of the process. At the same time, Hubert Davis has been around Carolina for a long time so I don't necessarily think the transition to head coach will be that difficult for him.
As an 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament last year with subpar shooting and turnover issues, I can't see UNC being worse than a sixth or seventh seed. This team is just too talented to regress from the 2020 season. If everything clicks that would mean the transfers are as advertised, the guard play becomes more efficient, and the Heels can hang with the big boys on their schedule (UCLA, Purdue, Michigan, Duke, FSU, etc.), this could be a special season in Chapel Hill. The future is now and I'm excited to see it play out.
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