Hampton (Inn) Express: 2024 UNC Football Season Preview

Omarion Hampton, the Tar Heels' biggest superstar in 2024.

WACO, TX (August 22nd, 2024)- There's a new era in College Football as several changes have changed the way we look at this beautiful game. NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) has forced teams to reallocate their assets to raising money to attract and recruit elite talent to their respective schools. The new EA College Football 25 video game is a product that arose from the new NIL changes. Another major addition to college football an update to the College Football Playoff system. The powers that be have expanded from 4 to 12 teams. A realistic championship window has been opened for several teams that would've not received a chance prior to 2024.

As for the Tar Heels, well it's unlikely that they'll be the beneficiaries of an expanded playoff this season but there's still plenty of intrigue for the squad from Chapel Hill. The buzz isn't quite there from when North Carolina had elite QB talents at the forefront of College Football. That means they can fly under the radar which might be needed for them.

One player that won't hide from the spotlight is superstar running back Omarion Hampton, who will lead the Tar Heels offense. The 2023 season saw Hampton bust through defenses across America, sporting seven games of over 100 yards rushing and reaching pay-dirt in nine games. The "Hampton (Inn) Express," has made the end-zone his home, as he's exceeded all expectations as a freshman and taking over the starting running back spot. We'll soon be treated to an encore season before Hampton declares for the NFL Draft.

What about the rest of the roster? It's time to find out...It's time for another installment of the UNC Football season preview.

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Offense:

Quarterback: For the first time since 2018, the Tar Heels have a quarterback competition on their hands. With two program greats gone to the NFL (Sam Howell and Drake Maye), North Carolina will need to turn to Conner Harrell (RS/SO) or Max Johnson (GR/TR). It will be a tight battle but I'm projecting Johnson to get the Week One start against Minnesota. Harrell has already been in the Tar Heels' system for multiple years now and while he wasn't going to take Maye's spot, it's clear North Carolina wasn't 100% convinced he's the answer. A familiar face in Jacolby Criswell also returned to the Tar Heels although he's projected to be the third-string.

Running Back: The running back group is in great hands. Junior back Omarion Hampton is clearly North Carolina's biggest name. The Doak Campbell Award finalist and First-Team All-American, took the nation by storm, rushing for over 1,500 yards and 15 TDs. Darwin Barlow will back up Hampton as the University of Southern California transfer will be used as a change-of-pace back. The staff has also loved senior back Caleb Hood but he simply hasn't been able to stay healthy. Finally, there is buzz about freshman Davion Gause who has potential to excel as a rotational back.

Wide Receiver: Mack Brown and his offensive staff has acquired, recruited and developed an abundance of riches at the receiver position. Since 2019, we've seen the likes of Dyami Brown, Dazz Newsome, Josh Downs, Antoine Green and Tez Walker all get drafted to the NFL. In 2024, there might not be a surefire NFL pick on the horizon but there are still plenty of pass catchers to get the job done. Kobe Paysour has showcased his explosive ability under Drake Maye and will likely start this season. He was limited to just five games in '23 after suffering a broken foot in practice. Nate McCollum was inconsistent but shined early in the season while UNC fought the legal battle to get Devontez Walker back on the field. Finally, J.J. Jones should occupy the final starting spot, as he has been a steady presence for North Carolina. The expectation is that Gavin Blackwell, Jordan Shipp, and Chris Culliver will get opportunities in a supporting role as well.

Bryson Nesbit, a quarterback's best friend.

Tight Ends: While North Carolina's offense will have many changes, the tight end position is a major strong suit for this team. I could make a serious case that UNC has the best trio of tight ends in the nation. Leading the way is senior Bryson Nesbit, who has the athletic ability to be an NFL Draft pick. He fits the mold of a modern day professional tight end like Travis Kelce, George Kittle, or Sam LaPorta. There is also some depth behind Nesbit. John Copenhaver has been as consistent as they come and he'll likely be used in many 2 TE sets with Nesbit. Finally, the transfer portal came in handy as sophomore Jake Johnson, Max's brother, gives some familiarity to potential starting QB Max Johnson from Texas A&M.

Offensive Line: Howard Sampson (left tackle), Aidan Banfield/Malik McGowan (left guard), Austin Blaske (center), Willie Lampkin (right guard), and Treyvon Green (right tackle) will round out the starting offensive line. The depth is light so the hope is this group can stay healthy or else there may be major issues. Not mentioned in this projected starting lineup is highly-touted redshirt sophomore Zach Rice. A five-star recruit from Virginia, Rice hasn't lived up to the hype and has been relegated to a backup for now.

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Defense:

North Carolina has struck out with hiring defensive coordinators. Jay Bateman's defense was horrible and Gene Chizik's defense started off strong in 2023 before regressing to the point of no return by season's end. Will the "Minister of Mayhem" aka former Georgia Tech DC Geoff Collins make the "third time the charm?"

At linebacker, Cedric Gray has left for the NFL but the Heels have the team's second leading tackler in Power Echols ready to etch his name among the ACC's premiere defensive talent for 2024. With 102 tackles and an interception to his name, expect more of the same this season. Sophomore Amare Campbell is slated to start alongside Echols.

UNC's defensive line is heavy on upperclassmen that are ready to rumble. Leading the way is a man that needs little introduction. The graduate senior Kaimon Rucker is ready to cause havoc to ACC quarterbacks this year. He had a breakout season in 2023, recording 61 tackles, 8.5 sacks, and a forced fumble. In his final season with the Tar Heels, he'll be looking to solidify his NFL Draft position and help bring North Carolina's defense to relevancy.

The other defensive ends have improved drastically. Desmond Evans has improved each season and is looking to take one more giant leap in his senior year. A player Carolina fans should be optimistic about is redshirt sophomore Beau Atkinson. As a rotational end, Atkinson recorded 3.5 sacks and a forced fumble. Expect his role to increase in 2024. At defensive tackle, Kevin Hester, Travis Shaw, Jahvaree Ritzie, and graduate transfer Joshua Harris will be the main men in the rotation. For a five star recruit, Shaw has been disappointing, not recording a single sack in two years. He'll need to step up if North Carolina's defense plans to take the next step.

ETSU transfer Alijah Huzzie was easily North Carolina's most consistent cornerback last season. He was brought in due to his knack for taking the ball away and he delivered with three INTs in 2023. On the opposite side will be Marcus Allen, not to be confused with NFL Hall of Fame running back Marcus Allen. STAR DeAndre Boykins is back from injury and figures to get significant minutes. At safety, Antavious "Stick" Lane, Will Hardy, and Jakeen Harris will get most of the snaps. And remember the name, Kaleb Cost. A two-sport athlete (baseball/football), Cost will find his way on the field and make plays.

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Special Teams:

Kicker Noah Burnette has had an up-and-down career with the Tar Heels. In 2022, special teams was at the center of several Tar Heel blunders. At the top of the list, the Heels overtime missed kick against NC State resulted in a Heels loss and drew the ire of fans and the coaching staff.

He wasn't even supposed to start once UNC brought in transfer Ryan Coe from Cincinnati. Coe missed a 39 yard field goal against App State as time expired in regulation before suffering a season-ending injury, paving the way for Burnette to earn his job back.

In 2023, he delivered the goods in a redemption season, missing just one kick. Most notably, Burnette hit a clutch field goal to send the Victory Bell contest vs Duke into overtime where the Tar Heels eventually won in double OT 47-45. There's no competition here, Burnette will be the kicker.

At punter, longtime mainstay Ben Kiernan has graduated. In his place will be Tom Maginness, who punted for the second half of last year once Kiernan went down with a season-ending injury. He struggled mightily for most of the season so he'll need to make drastic improvements to avoid disaster for the Heels.

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Game-by-Game Predictions:

North Carolina kicks off the 2024 season on the road as they travel to Minneapolis to take on the Golden Gophers. In the season opener, anything is possible. P.J. Fleck's Gophers had a poor season, mustering just a 5-7 record, including a 31-13 loss to the Tar Heels in Week Three.

I'd like to believe UNC is the better team but there are new variables at play. Both teams will have a new QB under center. It's very possible we could get a Max (Johnson) vs Max (Brosmer) battle. Minnesota's "Max" is a wild card, throwing for 29 touchdowns to 6 interceptions in 2023. However, he played for New Hampshire (FCS) in the Colonial Athletic Conference. He has never played a team to the level of the Tar Heels which is concerning. If Carolina is going to do anything of note this year, they'll have a plan to disrupt Brosmer and spoil his first start against a relevant foe.

I'm very nervous when North Carolina plays road night games, as their track record is very poor. They did show up with an inspiring performance against South Carolina in the season opener. That game was in Charlotte and this one is 1,200 miles away from home. With the best running back in the country, Omarion Hampton could carry this team to victory on his own. However, in Week One and a road game with a new starting QB and breaking in a new defensive coordinator, a mistake or two could get the crowd going and be the difference in this one. My gut says North Carolina is the better team but home-field advantage will be the decider. Minnesota 26, North Carolina 24 [0-1 record, 0-0 in the ACC]

It's the first ever matchup between UNC and UNC-Charlotte (3-9 record in 2023). It's great for the state of North Carolina to boost their economy and have a fun home opener to start the year off. The Tar Heels will return the favor in 2025 and travel to Charlotte for a home-and-home series. In what should be a tune-up game, North Carolina will pummel the 49ers for an easy W. North Carolina 45, Charlotte 13 [1-1 record, 0-0 in the ACC]

There is no reason why this game should be close. There's not much that needs to be said, despite NCCU finishing with 9 wins last year. In 2023 against similar competition to this matchup. The Eagles lost 59-7 to UCLA. A similar result is likely once again. North Carolina 55, NCCU 10 [2-1 record, 0-0 in the ACC]

Do NOT sleep on this game. I repeat...do NOT sleep on this game. UNC has struggled mightily with Sun Belt foes in the last three seasons as App State (twice) and Georgia State have kept things close with the Heels. The Dukes finished 11-2 last season and defeated Virginia in Charlottesville 36-35. JMU is the rare "Group of Five" team that is fully capable of competing...and defeating a mid-tier Power 4 school. I'll say Carolina wins but if this turns out to be another disappointing season for Mack Brown, I figure we'd look back and see this game in the loss column. North Carolina 38, James Madison 28 [3-1 record, 0-0 in the ACC]

Mack Brown has simply owned the Blue Devils. In fact, he's won a remarkable 13 straight against Duke, going back to his last tenure as well. While the Tar Heels have failed to meet expectations in a lot of areas, beating Duke isn't one of them. In their ACC opener, they'll have a challenging road test on their hands.

In the last contest, North Carolina took victory from the jaws of defeat. Drake Maye went out in style on senior night, throwing for 342 yards and winning an epic overtime game as the Carolina faithful stormed the field. It's definitely not a guarantee that the Tar Heels win this matchup though. Duke lost coach Mike Elko who revitalized the Blue Devils program under QB Riley Leonard. Now that both are gone, Duke will likely be relegated to a lower-tier ACC program. The Texas Longhorns transfer quarterback Maalik Murphy will likely give the Heels fits. If they couldn't stop third-string Grayson Loftis last season, Murphy could have a field day. That being said, Carolina has proven time and time again that they don't lose to Duke. North Carolina 29, Duke 27 [4-1 record, 1-0 in the ACC]

CB Alijah Huzzie sparked the Tar Heels with an electric punt-return TD to help UNC def. Pitt 41-24 (2023)

The Panthers were pitiful in 2023, going just 3-9. A program that is typically near the top of the ACC and known for their high-profile upsets, is trending in the wrong direction. That should be good news for the Tar Heels who have scored 40+ points against Pitt in the last two matchups. At home, UNC should have their way with the Panthers. After a likely emotional rivalry game against Duke, they'll need to avoid a letdown against a lesser foe. North Carolina 34, Pittsburgh 20 [5-1 record, 2-0 in the ACC]

Until I see it happen, I can't predict it. The Yellow Jackets have beaten the Tar Heels in three consecutive matchups, two of which came when UNC had just one loss on the season to their name. DC Geoff Collins has familiarity with some of the Jackets style-of-play so perhaps that can help UNC vanquish their demons. Georgia Tech was unstoppable, accumulating 635 total yards of offense in their primetime matchup. That simply can't happen again. North Carolina won't be able to win in a track meet this year. They'll need ro win with fundamentally sound football and complimentary defense. It'll be close per usual but the Heels somehow get "stung" again by an improving program in the ACC. Georgia Tech 23, North Carolina 20 [5-2 record, 2-1 in the ACC]

Last season, North Carolina was 6-0 and 10th in the nation with an outside chance at the College Football Playoff in their sights. In comes the floundering Cavaliers with just one win on the year. 60 minutes later, Mack Brown and Carolina suffered one of the most inexplicable, unacceptable, embarrassing losses of his tenure. The team looked out of sync in a 31-27 home defeat. Not only did the Heels suffer their first loss of the season, but their slim playoff hopes evaporated into the night sky as well. If UNC has any sense of pride, they'll return the favor and grab an impressive win on the road. North Carolina 34, Virginia 22 [6-2 record, 3-1 in the ACC]

The Seminoles will be on a scorched earth mission after going 13-0 but being snubbed from the College Football Playoff. While it's unlikely FSU will go undefeated again, this will be a very strong team. I highly doubt the Tar Heels can go on the road to Tallahassee and get a win. Florida State has some key talent leaving including QB Jordan Travis, RB Trey Benson, WR Keon Coleman, and DE Jared Verse. However, they have plenty of talent to fill the void. A thrashing in Florida will put a serious damper in the Heels hopes of making the ACC Championship Game. Florida State 38, North Carolina 21 [6-3 record, 3-2 in the ACC]

It seems like decades ago when Wake Forest won 10 games and was competing for the ACC crown. Now, they're likely be fighting for bowl eligibility. The Tar Heels and Demon Deacons almost always have electrifying battles and this one should be no different. In a nail-biter, the best player on the field will show up in a big day. Omarion Hampton runs wild, scoring all four touchdowns (2 rushing, 2 receiving) in a Heels come-from-behind win. North Carolina 28, Wake Forest 24 [7-3 record, 4-2 record in the ACC]

There's typically one game a year where this team just doesn't have it. A late season road game in chilly Chestnut Hill air right before North Carolina's much-anticipated matchup against the Wolfpack. It screams like a low-energy game for North Carolina. When the offense flounders, the defense will finally meet the test. Kaimon Rucker forces two fumbles, including one to help the Tar Heels get one last opportunity on offense. QB Max Johnson generates a game-winning touchdown in the final seconds as backup TE John Copenhaver is the hero. UNC escapes the Eagles headed into rivalry week. North Carolina 17, Boston College 16 [8-3 record, 5-2 in the ACC]

This rivalry just means more for North Carolina State than it does the Tar Heels. It shows on and off the field. UNC was demoralized last year, losing to Clemson in Death Valley the game prior, which factored into to their lack of motivation. There was no salvaging the season at that point and the Wolfpack saw blood in the water. Drake Maye was shut down, as was Omarion Hampton in a 41-20 loss at Carter Finley Stadium.

NC State should be able to push for ten wins this season, something they've done only once in program history (2002). No matter what the records are, bragging rights are always a motivating factor. NC State's players feed off the brash attitude of head coach Dave Doeren. He HATES North Carolina and wants to demolish them every time they take the field. Until I see a change in mentality and tenacity from UNC's coaching staff and players, a win in this rivalry will be elusive. NC State 34, North Carolina 24 [8-4 record, 5-3 in the ACC]

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Final Record Predictions & Final Thoughts

Offensive MVP: Omarion Hampton, RB (1,525 rushing yards, 20 total touchdowns)

Defensive MVP: Kaimon Rucker, DE (10 sacks, 65 tackles, 2 FF)

Breakout Player: Beau Atkinson, DE (5.5 sacks, 1 FF, 1 INT)

Ceiling: 10-2 record [third in the ACC]- This North Carolina football iteration on paper doesn't seem like a double-digit win team...but their easy schedule makes me believe that there is opportunity for success if they rise to the occasion. For an upper-tier ACC school like conference favorites FSU and Clemson, this would be a 12-0 type of schedule. If North Carolina still had Drake Maye or Sam Howell, I'd probably give UNC a ten-win season MINIMUM...but we've seen how that has gone even with elite signal callers at the helm. There's not a game outside of their visit to Tallahassee where the Tar Heels aren't capable of winning.

Floor: 6-6 record [tenth in the ACC]- Anything less than a Bowl game appearance is a fireable offense with this schedule. I don't care if the quarterback is myself throwing passes at Kenan Memorial Stadium. A .500 record would signal that this program isn't improving, an ominous sign for Mack Brown's future.

Final Record: 8-4 record [tied for fifth in the ACC]- As is typically the case, North Carolina will finish with eight wins in 2024. The defense holds the key to the season. With the offense likely not being as dynamic due to lesser QB play, a bad defense could make things ugly in 2024. However, if Johnson/Harrell step up to the plate, the Hampton Express continues to run wild, and the defense causes havoc and eliminates cataclysmic mistakes, there is room for a successful season. What defines "success?" Usually, it's accompanied by "expectations" and North Carolina doesn't have a lot of those this year. The narrative has been written with this program. A team that can't handle success. Now it's up to the current players to change it.

There are two "guaranteed" wins [Charlotte, NCCU], one guaranteed loss [Florida State], and a whole lot of question marks. Those "???" will be the difference in a program-reviving season (10-11 wins), a status quo season (9-7 wins), or a sinking ship program (5-6 wins).

For the state of the ACC, I think there is a clear cut top-tier vying for a trip to the ACC Championship Game in Charlotte. Florida State, Clemson, NC State, and Miami will likely be the top contenders. In the second-tier, teams like SMU, Louisville, and Virginia Tech as conference dark-horses. I'd put the Tar Heels somewhere in that second mix. Can Carolina come out of "nowhere" and make a run in the ACC/CFP picture? It's unlikely but anything is possible in college football.