Howell for Heisman? 2020 UNC Football Preview

Last season, North Carolina was coming off a putrid two win season. Even with highly acclaimed coach Mack Brown back in the fold, pretty much every pundit thought it would be a rebuilding program year for the team. It only took two weeks for the narrative and vibe to change around this team. A comeback win in Charlotte’s Belk Bowl Kickoff against South Carolina and a last-minute touchdown drive against Miami ignited a revival that may last for years to come.

The Tar Heels capped off the season with a dominating beatdown of the Temple Owls in the Military Bowl 55-13 to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Now, expectations are sky-high with the most optimistic projections having UNC in the Orange Bowl and fringe college football playoff contenders. How high will the Tar Heels fly this season? Let’s find out...

Offense

Quarterback Sam Howell took the ACC by storm and comes into the 2020 season as a top-25 player in college football. Last season, he passed for over 3,600 yards and 38 TD’s in the air, near identical stats to presumed number one overall pick Trevor Lawrence of Clemson. I wouldn’t say it’s out of the question that Howell could be among the Heisman finalists with a repeat performance of 2019. The team will need to win big this year before he garners the recognition he deserves. The backups for the Heels are Jace Ruder and freshman Jacoby Criswell respectively.

UNC has all their returning skill players back on offense. At receiver, a trio of great receivers will elevate this team. Dazz Newsome and Dyami Brown had breakout seasons, each with over 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdown receptions. I have no doubt they can and will repeat that feat. Meanwhile, 6’3 Beau Corrales (yes, he likes Bojangles) will provide a tall red-zone threat to go along with supporting receivers Rontavious “Toe” Groves, Antoine Green, Emery Simmons and freshman Josh Downs.

The running back group is just as dynamic. Senior Michael Carter and junior Javonte Williams may be the best duo of backs in the ACC. Both had over 1,100 scrimmage yards to create a nice balanced attack for offensive coordinator Phil Longo. One thing I do expect to see is more designed runs for Howell. He is decently mobile but sported a knee brace for an apparent injury. In what could be a sign of things to come, Howell ran for 53 yards, a season-high for him in the final game of the season.

The offensive line and tight end are two question marks. The starting tight end will likely be Garrett Walston who caught on towards the end of last season. Even if he’s not fantastic, UNC should be able to get by. A bad offensive line, however, could pose several issues. Standout left tackle Charlie Heck graduated and is now on the NFL’s Houston Texans. Joshua Ezeudu will attempt to replace him. If one of these two weaknesses becomes a strength, the Tar Heels offense should roll all season long.

Defense

The strength on the defensive side of the ball is their linebackers. Leading the show is star linebacker Chazz Surratt. He came out of nowhere after converting from quarterback to linebacker last year. His most memorable play was an interception at the goal line to stop Duke’s comeback attempt to win the Victory Bell. Alongside Surratt will be Jeremiah Gemmel who had a great season himself.

Cornerback Storm Duck (yes, that’s his name) and safety Myles Wolfolk will lead the secondary. Duck was thrust into action as a freshman after injuries to their top corners Patrice Rene (ACL tear) and Trey Morrison for much of the season. The wild card could be Tony Grimes. He was America’s number one cornerback recruit for the 2021 class but decided to graduate early with his high school football season canceled. Expect Grimes to find his way into the cornerback rotation by season’s end.

The defensive line has a lot of potential to be great. Veterans Tomari Fox and Raymond Vohasek will hold down the middle of the D-line while Tomon Fox will come off the edge. Freshman defensive end Desmond Evans may not start right off the bat but he should have his role increased as the season progresses. Once he gets accustomed to Jay Bateman’s defensive scheme, he will be a force to be reckoned with.

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Game by Game Predictions

Looking at the revamped schedule, the Tar Heels dodged a bullet by avoiding both Clemson and Louisville. In addition, their toughest two games (Notre Dame, Virginia Tech) are at home. As for the Cuse', this SHOULD be a win for the home team. However, the first week of the season typically shows an abundance of broken plays, penalties, and unexpected outcomes. I can't see UNC losing this game but it's not out of the question for this game to be closer than expected.

North Carolina 28, Syracuse 17 [1-0]

This is North Carolina’s only automatic win. There's not too much that needs to be said here. It would've been nice to see UNC keep one of their marquee non-conference games against UCF or Auburn but the 49ers will provide a nice tune-up before going into the meat of their schedule.

North Carolina 49, Charlotte 14 [2-0]

Boston College will likely be a bottom feeder of the ACC if not the worst team in the conference. Without star running back A.J. Dillon and a new head coach (Jeff Hafley), UNC should take advantage of a weak roster to win this contest relatively comfortably.

North Carolina 30, Boston College 16 [3-0]

This game could go either way for me. On one hand, Virginia Tech has given UNC all sorts of headaches in the last four years. Last season, the Hokies edged the Heels in a six-overtime classic 43-41 at Lane Stadium. One factor that could prove to be the difference is the loss of cornerback Caleb Farley (opt-out). A presumed first-round draft pick in 2021, Farley’s absence will be missed as Tech tries to cover receivers Newsome and Brown. I fully expect another fantastic game but this time, UNC comes out on top. The Heels kick a game-winning field goal and end their nightmarish losing streak against the tenacious Hokies.

North Carolina 38, Virginia Tech 35 [4-0]

I’m not entirely sure what to make of Florida State. They have really fallen off their role as a top-tier threat in the ACC and back into mediocracy. FSU quarterback James Blackmon will need to be substantially better if the Seminoles want to improve this year. However, they do have wide receiver Tamorrion Terry though. He was second in the ACC in receiving yards and he will look to have another great season and be a thorn in UNC's side. I look for this to be a game where the Heels will force multiple turnovers in a stellar defensive performance.

North Carolina 31, Florida State 17 [5-0]

Rivalry contests can often prove to spoil someone's season throughout college football. Secondly, NC State was struck with a ton of injuries last season which contributed to a poor season. Despite this, North Carolina is clearly the better team and the Wolfpack haven't made enough strides to close the gap in 2020.

North Carolina 42, NC State 23 [6-0]

Quarterback Bryce Perkins is gone for UVA as are several key starters such as cornerback Bryce Hall, receiver Joe Reed, and linebacker Jordan Mack. While Virginia’s defense should be able to be solid once again, their offense may struggle to move the chains. This may be a game where Michael Carter and Javonte Williams struggle to get much going on the ground but UNC should be able to escape Charlottesville with a gritty and somewhat ugly performance.

North Carolina 23, Virginia 16 [7-0]

The Blue Devils added Clemson backup quarterback Chase Brice to upgrade the team. We haven't seen much of him, only filling in for spot situations for Trevor Lawrence. With Duke announcing that there would be no fans in Durham for the season, this game likely won't be too much of a challenge for UNC to handle. North Carolina maintains possession of the Victory Bell for the second straight season.

North Carolina 31, Duke 21 [8-0]

Trap game? You better believe it. This game is really tricky. It is sandwiched in-between the Victory Bell game against rival Duke and a post-Thanksgiving blockbuster against Notre Dame. I know Jamie Newman isn't Wake's quarterback anymore but after the Tar Heels lost to the Demon Deacons last year, this spells trouble. I think UNC will be caught looking ahead and play their worst game of the season. Howell and Co. will be down 23-13 going into the fourth quarter before a late game flurry sends the game into overtime. The momentum carries over as Storm Duck intercepts a pass and sets up the Heels for the game winning field goal. Crisis averted.

North Carolina 26, Wake Forest 23 (OT) [9-0]

In all likelihood, the Tar Heels’ chances of finishing as a top-2 team in the ACC will come down to these final two games. If this team has aspirations of facing the Tigers in the ACC Championship Game, they must knock off the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame has to play both Louisville and Clemson and will already be battle tested. Quarterback Ian Book will certainly be a challenging task for UNC’s defense to handle. This game will probably be in primetime, placing UNC in the national spotlight for their biggest game since the 2015 ACC Championship Game. Unfortunately for Mack Brown, his quest at perfection ends here.

Notre Dame 31, North Carolina 27 [9-1]

How will UNC respond after their first loss of the season? They won’t have much time to think about it when Houston transfer D’Eriq King looks to wipe out any hopes of UNC making the ACC Championship. Meanwhile, Hurricanes defensive end Quincy Roche will try to fill the void of potential top ten pick Gregory Rousseau’s opt-out decision. That being said, Miami has underachieved since their fantastic 2017 season and I’d be willing to bet that this season will be more of the same.

North Carolina 34, Miami 24 [10-1]

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Overall, the sky’s the limit for the Tar Heels this year. While I don’t think they are ready to upend Clemson in the ACC quite yet, playing in the Orange Bowl or Peach Bowl would cement this season as a success if everything clicks into place. Their best case scenario is finishing the regular season undefeated and playing Clemson tough in the ACC Championship Game. The worst case is that last season was a fluke, Sam Howell regresses, and UNC fails to close out close games once again.

Regardless of what happens, I’m just glad that there is football in general. A couple of weeks ago, it seemed extremely unlikely that college football would begin after an abundance of leagues, including the PAC-12 and Big Ten, decided to cancel their fall seasons. It remains to be seen if an entire season is possible amidst a global pandemic but it won’t stop the remaining leagues from at least trying. Enjoy the season while it lasts and pray that we make it to the end to crown a champion.

PROJECTED RECORD: 11-1; third in ACC, wins bowl game

BEST CASE: 12-1; Orange Bowl win; Howell is a Heisman finalist

WORST CASE: 6-6; loses bowl game

*records include potential bowl games/ACC Championship appearance*