THE NBA IS BACK! It seems like forever since the league shut down operations and started a trend of every sports league either canceling or postponing their season. Nearly four months later, commissioner Adam Silver and the rest of the league have constructed a plan to get the season running again. We can only hope that the season is able to restart and finish successfully by crowning a champion before a potential "second wave" of coronavirus is projected to arrive.
There are many questions about how this restart could significantly impact the league and the final results in the coming weeks. How many positive COVID-19 tests would shut the NBA down again? Will a star player contract the virus and affect a championship contender? How will players react to extended periods inside the Disney World bubble? The unpredictability of this entire situation creates several unique and intriguing storylines.
It will be interesting to see how all 22 teams respond after upwards of three months without organized basketball. All the "momentum" that teams had in the month of March has evaporated and now we have a clean slate for all the teams to potentially catch fire and make a run. Sports are typically a battle of attrition but this season may involve a few fortuitous bounces for one lucky NBA team. Who will be crowned NBA champion? Let's find out...
First off, here are four key points of how the NBA restart is slated to go down:
The NBA will be playing at Walt Disney World in Orlando, FL for the remainder of the 2019-20 season starting July 30th; players will not be allowed to leave or else they will face a ten-day mandatory quarantine upon re-entry
Each of the 22 teams will play eight games to determine final playoff seeding
If the 8th seed and 9th seed are within four games of each other at the conclusion of the "seeding" games, a mini "play-in tournament" will take place; the 9th seed must win two straight games against the 8th seed or they will be eliminated
No fans will be allowed at the games
*Seeding game record in brackets*
Eastern Conference Projections
#1 SEED: Milwaukee Bucks- PROJECTED RECORD: 60-13 [7-1]
#2 SEED: Toronto Raptors- PROJECTED RECORD: 50-22 [4-4]
#3 SEED: Boston Celtics- PROJECTED RECORD: 49-23 [6-2]
#4 SEED: Miami Heat- PROJECTED RECORD: 45-28 [4-4]
#5 SEED: Indiana Pacers- PROJECTED RECORD: 44-29 [5-3]
#6 SEED: Philadelphia 76ers- PROJECTED RECORD: 42-31 [3-5]
#7 SEED: Brooklyn Nets- PROJECTED RECORD: 32-40 [2-6]
#8 SEED: Orlando Magic- PROJECTED RECORD: 32-41 [2-6]
OUT:
Washington Wizards- PROJECTED RECORD: 26-46 [2-6]
ALREADY ELIMINATED: Hornets, Bulls, Knicks, Pistons, Hawks, Cavaliers
Eastern Conference Schedule Predictions (all games):
Bucks lose to Heat
Raptors beat 76ers, Nuggets, Celtics, & Magic
Celtics beat Blazers, Heat, Nets, Magic, Grizzlies, & Wizards
Heat beat Bucks, Raptors, Pacers (Aug 14th), & Suns
Pacers beat 76ers, Lakers, Heat (Aug 10th), Suns, & Wizards
76ers beat Magic, Suns, & Rockets
Nets beat Kings & Magic (July 31st)
Magic beat Nets (Aug 11th) & Pacers
Wizards beat Nets & 76ers
Western Conference Projections
#1 SEED: Los Angeles Lakers- PROJECTED RECORD: 55-16 [6-2]
#2 SEED: Los Angeles Clippers- PROJECTED RECORD: 50-22 [6-2]
#3 SEED: Denver Nuggets- PROJECTED RECORD: 47-26 [4-4]
#4 SEED: Utah Jazz- PROJECTED RECORD: 46-26 [5-3]
#5 SEED: Oklahoma City Thunder- PROJECTED RECORD: 45-27 [5-3]
#6 SEED: Houston Rockets- PROJECTED RECORD: 43-29 [3-5]
#7 SEED: Dallas Mavericks- PROJECTED RECORD: 44-31 [4-4]
#8 SEED: Memphis Grizzlies- PROJECTED RECORD: 37-38 [5-5]
OUT:
Portland Trail Blazers- PROJECTED RECORD: 34-42 [5-5]
New Orleans Pelicans- PROJECTED RECORD: 32-40 [4-4]
San Antonio Spurs- PROJECTED RECORD: 30-41 [3-5]
Sacramento Kings- PROJECTED RECORD: 30-42 [2-6]
Phoenix Suns- PROJECTED RECORD: 29-44 [3-5]
ALREADY ELIMINATED: Timberwolves, Warriors
Western Conference Schedule Predictions (all games):
Lakers lose to Pacers and Clippers
Clippers lose to Thunder and Nuggets
Nuggets beat Clippers, Heat, Spurs, Blazers
Jazz beat Pelicans, Spurs (Aug 13th), Grizzlies, Nuggets, and Thunder
Thunder beat Clippers, Grizzlies, Nuggets, Heat, and Wizards
Rockets beat Pacers, Kings, & Spurs
Mavericks beat Suns (Aug 2nd), Kings, Jazz, Rockets
Grizzlies beat Blazers, Spurs, Pelicans, & Raptors
Blazers beat Rockets, 76ers, Mavericks, & Nets
Pelicans beat Kings (Aug 6th), Wizards, Spurs, & Magic
Spurs beat 76ers, Kings, & Jazz (Aug 7th)
Kings beat Pelicans (Aug 11th) & Magic
Suns beat Wizards, Mavericks (Aug 13th), & Thunder
Play-in tournament prediction: Grizzlies in two games over Trail Blazers
I believe the Memphis Grizzlies will come out hot in Disney, going 3-0 to start out their seeding games against the Trail Blazers, Spurs, and Pelicans respectively. However, the Trail Blazers and Pelicans will each climb back into the race towards the end as Lillard and Zion will be in desperation mode. Memphis gets the pleasure of taking on the top three seeds in the East to close their “regular season” which is a challenging stretch of games.
My projection is that the Trail Blazers will be within the four game threshold for the 8th vs. 9th seed. It's crazy to think that Portland was in the Western Conference Finals just last year and now are in serious danger of missing the playoffs. It's difficult to go against Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum but their inconsistencies this year make the Blazers a tough team to rely on. Ja Morant will do enough in the second game to give Memphis a date with the Los Angeles Lakers and solidify Rookie of the Year for the 2019-20 season.
Top 5 “Seeding Games” to watch
*chronological order*
Clippers vs Lakers; July 30th; 9:00pm ET on TNT
Obviously this game had to be on the list. Could this be the season where LeBron captures his 4th championship or could Kawhi win his third championship with three different teams? This game could be a small glimpse into which team is more conditioned to survive this unprecedented season. This is a fantastic way to re-open the NBA in style with the best rivalry of the season.
Bucks vs Celtics; July 31st; 6:30pm ET on ESPN
Eastern Conference Finals preview? It could certainly shake out that way. The coronavirus hiatus greatly increased the Bucks' chances at winning the NBA Finals. The same could also be said for Boston. Both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kemba Walker were dealing with minor knee injuries and after three months of no games, they should both be at full strength.
Grizzlies vs Trail Blazers; July 31st; 4:00pm ET on NBA TV
In my projections for the Western Conference, the “race for eighth” will come down to Portland and Memphis. If Damian Lillard gets hot at Disney, the Blazers could be a tough out for any team in August. It will be interesting to see how Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr, and the Grizzlies respond after seemingly being overlooked all season long. Despite their remaining schedule being one of the hardest, I think they’ll rise to the occasion and hold on to their spot.
Jazz vs Thunder; August 1st; 3:30pm ET on ESPN
The last time Utah and Oklahoma City were slated to tip-off, the game was promptly shut down due to Rudy Gobert testing positive for the novel coronavirus. Now, these teams will finally get a chance to finish what they never started. Only one game separates the two clubs and this game could impact seeding when the playoffs roll around. With a strong push to close the season, both of these teams have an outside chance of reaching as high as the third seed.
Grizzlies vs Pelicans; August 3rd; 6:30pm ET on ESPN
Similar to the Blazers game, the Pelicans are certainly in the mix to spice things up for the final spot in the conference. I would be doing a disservice to this article if I didn’t mention Zion Williamson’s name. With Williamson and the elevated play of Brandon Ingram, the Pelicans could very well find themselves into the playoffs with a strong showing.
Playoff Predictions:
First Round:
Welp...the Orlando Magic have the "home-court advantage," although that won't matter without fans in the stands. This is the easiest series to predict. The Magic have some nice building blocks with Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon, and Jonathan Issac leading the way but that won't stop Milwaukee from sweeping the series just like they did in the regular season.
2021 should be Brooklyn's season. Without Kevin Durant, there was little chance of them being a legitimate contender. I certainly expected the Nets to be better than they are but with Kyrie Irving also dealing with injuries himself, I shouldn't be too surprised. Meanwhile, Toronto has seen virtually no regression and could wind up back in the Finals with another strong playoff performance. Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry shouldn't have much trouble in round one.
The 76ers just haven't been able to click all season long. Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons continue to deal with injuries. The silver lining is that the long layoff from COVID-19 may help them regain some of their lost form. In addition, the 76ers did go 3-1 against the Celtics so there is hope. Overall, I have to trust Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum in the playoffs. I can't overlook how well the C's have played against winning teams and they should be able to take care of Philly.
The first “upset” of the NBA Playoffs. To me, Miami is more of a boom-or-bust team where as Indiana is steady and relatively predictable. In fact, I'd go as far to say that Indiana is the most overlooked team in the league. Sure, the Heat have exceeded expectations after missing the playoffs last season. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo cannot be denied and will make this the most competitive series in the East. The biggest X-factor is Victor Oladipo (13 games played) who is coming off a major injury. Consistency is key and the Pacers are just that. Oladipo, all-star Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, and Myles Turner are efficient players and will find a way to come through in Game 7.
Like most “1 v 8” matchups, this one should be a walk in the park. The fact that Memphis is even in the playoffs this season is a blessing in itself. Barring LeBron James and/or Anthony Davis getting quarantined, this should be the Lakers' series for the taking.
There is not much separating the #3 Denver Nuggets and the #7 Dallas Mavericks. The reason why I'm saying this is that this series shouldn't be overlooked. Luka Doncic has dominated the league and will combine with Kristaps Porzingis to cause all sorts of matchup problems. I have the Clippers winning here but if you have the guts to pick a massive upset, look no further than this one.
This series will be another great one. Houston and Denver split their four regular season matchups with the home team going undefeated. The Nuggets were a 4OT game away from playing in the Western Conference Finals last season so they are a team to be feared. Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr have what it take to get back to those heights. However, I'm gonna roll with Russell Westbrook and James Harden in this series. Houston does have a recent reputation for folding but the second-highest scoring team in the league should find the edge in a Game 7. Technically, this is an upset as far as seeding goes but I'd hardly call it one though.
Oklahoma City hasn't won a playoff series since blowing a 3-1 lead to the Golden State Warriors in the 2015-16 Western Conference Finals. Outside of Chris Paul, the Thunder don't really have a player that can be counted on in the clutch. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a blossming talent at just 21 years old and should play well in this series. However, the Jazz have a much deeper and more experienced team and it will prove beneficial at Disney.
Second Round:
This is where the road ends for the Pacers. The 2019-20 Bucks may not be considered one of the best teams of all-time right now but when it's all said and done, they certainly will be in the discussion.
This series could go either way. Despite winning the NBA Finals, Toronto has become an afterthought in many people’s eyes. This team has played just as good if not better than last season even without Kawhi Leonard. Meanwhile, Boston ran into a brick wall against the Bucks in the playoffs last season due to Giannis' stellar play. The issue is that the Raptors don't have a true player that can dominate for the entire game. Siakam and Lowry are fantastic but the Celtics can match them and have a bench that can keep the game in their hands. In a neutral site, the C's will find a way to nip Toronto.
Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert could be a nuisance against L.A. but I wouldn't expect much more than that. Anthony Davis can cancel out Gobert defensively and there's little that needs to be said for LeBron James. After a quick series against the Grizzlies, the Lakers will be fresh to take on the Utah Jazz who will be coming off a hard-fought seven game series. I can't see this matchup lasting more than five or six games tops.
In the L.A. Clippers 49 years of existence, they have NEVER been to a conference finals. They have a chance to rewrite previous narratives in this series against the Houston Rockets. Russell Westbrook and James Harden will have something to say about that. The Clippers defense matches up well against Houston. L.A. ranks third in the league in field goal percentage allowed and only the Raptors are better in defending the three-point shot. The Rockets will make things interesting but the Clips look primed to advance to their first WCF.
Conference Finals:
The matchup that almost every NBA fan dreamed of since the 2019 season began. L.A vs L.A. I just wish the game was at the Staples Center in front of thousands of fans instead of a fanless arena at the ESPN Wide World of Sports complexes. This is the most difficult series to predict in the playoffs. Both teams are evenly matched and every game should be close. It’s hard to go against LeBron James in any series but Leonard has shown he is cold-blooded under pressure and can match James in pressure-packed situations.
The Boston Celtics were my pick at the start of the season to win the East. I contemplated rolling with my original prediction of a Celtics-Clippers final but I think the Bucks are the clear team to beat in the East and its not particularly close. The "Greek Freak" will get all the love from the media but casual fans should not forget how great small forward Khris Middleton has become. Even if Middleton and point guard Eric Bledsoe play just "average," that's all the Bucks need to cruise through the East.
NBA Finals:
If we are fortunate enough to make it this far without the coronavirus impacting things, I'd be extremely happy. A series between Milwaukee and Los Angeles would be a breath of fresh air to fans that are tired of seeing LeBron and Stephen Curry in the Finals. Ironically, the Warriors and Cavaliers are now conference bottom-feeders after dominating the league for half a decade.
The last time the Clippers and Bucks faced off was December 6th, 2019. In other words, what happened in that game isn't going to matter much here. This year's NBA Finals will be played in October which will be nearly ten months since that game.
Kawhi Leonard is a quiet man but very few can shy away from his loud play on the court. With Antetokounmpo playing in his first Finals, this should give the slight edge to the Clippers. Doc Rivers and the Clippers will not be denied and Leonard will ultimately deliver another franchise its very first NBA championship.
NBA Champion: Los Angeles Clippers (1st title)
NBA Awards:
MVP: Giannis Antetokounmpo, SF, Milwaukee Bucks
ROY: Ja Morant, PG, Memphis Grizzlies
DPOY: Anthony Davis, PF, Los Angeles Lakers
Coach: Nick Nurse, Toronto Raptors
Sixth Man: Dennis Schroder, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder
Most Improved Player: Devonte' Graham, PG, Charlotte Hornets
Thanks for reading everyone and stay safe!
-Christian
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