Do we even need to say the words? Okay, fine I'll say it. Preseason number one. After falling one game short of winning the National Championship in Hubert Davis' first season as head coach, the Tar Heels were expected to rebound in a big way. After all, they did in 2017, winning the championship after losing to Villanova on a buzzer-beater in 2016. It was the "Jordan Year" where North Carolina would use the agony of defeat to propel them to win it all. The stars were aligned...except they weren't.
A team that was so poised and so clutch in their second-half surge in 2021-22 was nowhere to be found last season. They never hit that second gear that many thought they would. By December 4th, UNC had already lost FOUR games. Yes, two of them were to a top ranked Alabama and Indiana team but it was still alarming.
Throughout the entire season, North Carolina couldn't beat a marquee team. Their biggest and only "Quad 1" win was a home game against UVA. At the end of the day, the pressure became too much. North Carolina finished 20-13 and on the wrong side of the March Madness bubble for the first time since 2010. The team opted out of the NIT, likely to avoid further embarrassment.
North Carolina was served a piece of humble pie and now they must pick themselves off the mat. The question that I have going into this season is this: is there pressure on this North Carolina team? Yes and no. Are they expected to win the National Championship? To most people, probably not. However, as a blue blood program, there are ALWAYS expectations. Despite making the Final Four two seasons ago, Hubert Davis' Heels have been marred with inconsistencies, lack of bench production, and shocking blowouts. The "energy, effort, and toughness" that Davis preaches must be seen on a more consistent basis for the Tar Heels to achieve their goals.
How will the 2023-24 North Carolina Tar Heels fare? There's only one way to find out! By watching the games of course ;) But first, let's meet the players that will be sporting the baby blue in the Dean E. Smith Center.
Projected Starters
R.J. Davis, guard- Consistent as they come. There's not much to be said for #4. An elite free throw shooter. A shot creator. A team player. A tenacious defender. R.J. Davis is the embodiment of what a Carolina Basketball player should represent. Despite his size, I truly believe he'll get a shot to prove himself in the pros.
Elliot Cadeau, guard- It's not often that a freshman is a slam dunk to start game one for the Tar Heels but Cadeau is THAT guy. His playmaking ability will give UNC elite guard play in short order. He might be eased in during the first month but make no mistake, Cadeau is the future of the Tar Heels.
Cormac Ryan, forward- Starting at the small forward position will be the former Notre Dame star. His consistency and veteran presence is crucial as the Heels' glue guy. In the transition game, Ryan can catch and shoot a three from the corner. He's fundamentally sound and a team guy.
Harrison Ingram, forward- Transfers are the name of the game for North Carolina after a roster overhaul. Ingram, the Stanford transfer, was their prized acquisition. He's a well-rounded player that can make plays from anywhere on the court. The former Pac-12 Rookie of the Year had a disappointing sophomore year as his numbers stagnated. The Heels are hoping that with more talent around him, he will see his production rise and his NBA Draft stock do the same.
Armando Bacot, center- The heart and soul of Carolina Basketball. Back for his super senior year, Bacot will help restore order in the Tar Heel kingdom. His infectious personality and grit on the court is always a welcome sight to see. He's a walking double-double that has only gotten better each year. He's having the time of his life and with NIL deals in the mix, why not come back for a final year with Carolina?
Key Reserves
Jalen Washington, center- If Mando didn't deside to return to Chapel Hill for a fifth season, Carolina still would've been in great hands with Washington. He may have one of the prettiest jumpers that I've seen from a center. I fully expect Jalen to take the next step in his development before stepping into a starting role in '24.
Seth Trimble, guard- It's only a matter of time before a talent of Trimble's caliber gets going. The former four-star's shooting needs some significant work but his defensive prowess and athleticism around the rim will be much needed.
Paxton Wojcik, guard- Shooting, shooting, and more shooting. North Carolina struggled to have a consistent perimeter shot but Wojcik will give a boost to the backcourt. His dad was an assistant coach in the early 2000s so there are some family ties with the transfer from Brown University. You'll see him off the bench as a true team player and floor spacer for others to thrive.
Jae'Lyn Withers, forward- Louisville was one of the worst, if not the worst, power five basketball team last season. Withers was a bright spot on a relatively bleak roster. The senior transfer is a Charlotte native who averaged 8.9 points-per-game last year. He may end up starting a few games and provide much needed energy off the bench. He's a solid three-point shooter as an added bonus. Expect Withers to make a bigger impact than most people think. I believe he could be one of the best sixth men in the country...if Hubert plays the bench.
James Okonkwo, forward- The junior transfer from West Virginia is ready to bring the ENERGY to Chapel Hill. The defensive tenacity will be needed in a rotational role for the Heels. His personality is one that fans will fall in love with. Listen to a preseason interview of his and you'll quickly see why Coach Davis wanted him on the squad. He'll be a more polished and athletic version of former Heel Justin McKoy.
Zayden High, forward- The 2023 four-star recruit from Texas will likely be buried on the depth chart in year one. But there have been reports that he has earned playing time with his play in practice so we'll see if that comes to fruition. Having a deep bench is always a great thing to have. He'll likely play in the "4" spot once he cracks the rotation.
Biscuit Boys
Rob Landry, Creighton Lebo, Duwe Farris- If these men are on the court, it was likely a really incredible or a really terrible day for North Carolina. Every Bojangles worker at Carolina Union shakes in their boots as UNC approaches 100 points for the legendary 2 for a $1 Sausage Biscuit promotion. Fire up the grill!
Schedule Analysis
Non-conference play
UNC kicks off their regular season on Monday, November 6th at 7pm ET when Radford comes to Chapel Hill. An early 3-0 start should be expected with Lehigh and UC Riverside following the opener. No excuses.
The Heels then travel to the Bahamas for the annual Battle 4 Atlantis tournament. They'll take on Northern Iowa (projected win) before taking on either Villanova or Texas Tech in the next round. North Carolina will have a tougher test here but I expect them to advance to the final round. It's hard to project who UNC will face in the final. Either Michigan, Memphis, Stanford, or Arkansas will emerge. Whoever it is, I'll say the Tar Heels stay perfect and win their first Battle 4 Atlantis championship to improve to 6-0 on the year.
Five days later, a new foe will come to town. The ACC/Big Ten Challenge is no more. In its place is the SEC/ACC Challenge. North Carolina's first matchup in this new challenge will be against the Tennessee Volunteers on Nov. 29th. The Vols had a great season in 2022-23, finishing with 25 wins and a trip to the Sweet Sixteen. North Carolina will be riding high but the Vols' gritty defense will wear out the Heels. They'll suffer their first loss of the year before a standalone conference game against Florida State will give them a nice test. UNC at home will beat an improved FSU squad, moving up to 7-1.
North Carolina plays arguably their toughest game of the season against the defending national champion UConn Huskies in the Jimmy V Classic on December 5th. UNC suffers their second defeat of the season in the Big Apple.
There are two more marquee non-conference matchups for North Carolina. Is it just me or does North Carolina always play Kentucky in the CBS Sports Classic. This will be another tough matchup for the Heels. With 11 days off in-between UConn and Kentucky, this will give UNC a chance for to regroup and prepare during the student-athletes exam week. In a narrow win, the Heels escape Atlanta to rise up to 8-2.
The final big matchup until conference play is the new-ish Jumpman Classic on December 20th against Oklahoma in Charlotte, NC. A Tar Heel crowd should give them the edge here. There is a game against Charleston Southern sandwiched right before the meat of the schedule which they should easily handle. North Carolina begins the heart of conference play at an impressive 10-2 record.
Conference Play:
The schedule makers did North Carolina no favors with three straight away conference games to start out 2024. Pitt and NC State both made the tournament in 2023 and Clemson was among the first teams out of March Madness. Ideally, the Heels would be able to take 2 of 3 in this sequence with a sweep really setting the tone for the year.
As I look at the schedule, playing another Final Four team in Miami twice will be a difficult task. Of course you have the Duke Blue Devils in the "Greatest Rivalry in College Basketball" on February 3rd and March 9th. I'd expect North Carolina to grab at least one win after being swept last season. This will be the last season of a "normal" ACC schedule before Cal, Stanford, and SMU join the conference in 2024. It won't impact much except the amount of "home-and-away" games between conference foes.
When the dust settles, here's how I see North Carolina's schedule shaking out:
Losses to @ Duke, @ Virginia, vs UConn, vs Tennessee, @ Clemson, vs Miami, @ Florida State, ACC Tournament loss
FINAL RECORD PREDICTION: 25-8 [15-5 in the ACC]
CEILING: Elite 8 appearance
FLOOR: Round of 64 exit
PROJECTION: Sweet Sixteen appearance; third in the ACC
Final Thoughts
It'll be interesting to see how North Carolina responds after one of the most disappointing seasons in program history. With the pressure off as #1, perhaps a change of fortunes is in the cards. They likely won't miss the tournament again. If they do, Hubert's job may come into question. However, there's too much talent on this squad for that to happen in back-to-back seasons. Improvements should be expected.
The Tar Heels are ready to prove the doubters wrong and get back to their perch atop the ACC standings and the College Basketball landscape. Tip-off is just days away so get up and JUMP AROUND. The Tar Heels are back!
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