On April Fools Day in 2021, longtime great coach Roy Williams retired (no, it wasn't a joke) after nearly 50 years of coaching, effectively passing the torch to former Tar Heel player and then assistant coach Hubert Davis to take the reins of this flagship blue blood program.
As a new era unfolds, there is often a lot of uncertainty in the program. Will the transition be a success or a failure? Early on in the 2021-22 season, it looked like North Carolina's basketball program might be headed for some dark times.
At the Hall of Fame Kickoff tournament in November, the Heels suffered their first two losses of the year. A nine-point loss to Purdue was nothing to be concerned about. The Boilermakers were considered true championship contenders led by star Jaden Ivey. However, an embarrassing 17 point loss to Tennessee, which was worse than the score indicated, showed the Heels might be in some trouble this season. The defense was sputtering as the team tried to find a reliable rotation that would suffice.
Coach Davis preached "energy, effort, and toughness," but the team clearly didn't get the memo for the first half of the year. Blowouts were commonplace for the boys in baby blue. The Heels were blown out to Kentucky by 29 in the CBS Sports Classic and later suffered two straight ACC road games to tournament-caliber teams like Miami (loss by 28) and Wake Forest (Loss by 22). UNC's only saving grace was that they didn't have a "bad" loss, as far as the quadrant system went. At 18-7, there was still a lot of work to do to boost their resume before it was too late. Their "grace period"evaporated as a mid-February loss to ACC bottom-feeder Pitt had many fans questioning if North Carolina would even make the NCAA Tournament in 2021.
That loss unexpectedly seemed to spark UNC as they started to go on a winning streak, winning 11 of 13 games. During that span, they locked down a starting lineup that would carry this team. The starting lineup was dubbed the "Iron Five" since they almost never came off the court. As far as game results went, the underdog Tar Heels rolled into Durham and handed Coach K an L in his final home game, stunning the nation. The Heels did bow out in the semifinals to the ACC Tournament champion Hokies but confidence was renewed that a tournament run could be made under the right circumstances.
An eight seed isn't expected to do much in March Madness but as we've seen in year's past, anything is possible. Especially for a prestigious program like North Carolina, they had already made a Final Four as an eight seed before (2000). The Heels decided to repeat history and make a stunning run to the National Championship. The season was incapsulated in an overtime victory over the defending champion Baylor Bears, after almost blowing a 25 point lead. In the Sweet Sixteen, UNC and UCLA battled it out as Caleb Love went nuclear for 30 points in a narrow win. The Peacocks of St. Peters Cinderella run was extinguished as the Heels would advance to play...their arch rival Duke in the Final Four.
In a highly anticipated game, the Heels and Blue Devils went down to the final minute, just as fate would have it. With UNC up just one, Caleb Love took a legacy shot...and it went in! A DAGGER to effectively end the contest and Coach K's career in the process. 81-77. A scoreline that will live forever in Tar Heel lore. Carolina would run out of steam in the National Championship, losing by three to Kansas but it was clear that UNC Basketball was here to stay for the long haul under Hubert Davis.
Why does Carolina have all the hype come 2022? Some will point to Coach Davis' faith in his team. Others may circle back to their returning roster with added depth. How about their championship pedigree? Every team and every year is different but UNC has quite the extensive history of bouncing back after a Final Four loss:
1981 (L to Indiana in Nat'l Championship) -> 1982 National Champions
2008 (L by 18 in semifinal to Kansas) -> 2009 National Champions
2016 (L by 3; buzzer-beater to Villanova in Nat'l Championship) -> 2017 National Champions
2022 (L to Kansas by 3 in Nat'l Championship)-> 2023 National Champions????
Will they pull off redemption once again and stand atop the college basketball world in Hubert Davis' second season? Let's find out who will be the key contributors to lead the 2022-23 Tar Heels men's basketball team.
MEET THE TEAM
PROJECTED STARTERS
R.J. Davis, junior guard- The undersized guard made monumental strides in his sophomore campaign, improving statistically across the board in all major categories. Davis carried the Heels against Baylor, scoring a career-high 30 points. As the key distributor of the ball, Davis' impact will be seen on every possession.
Caleb Love, junior guard- Sometimes, all you need is a little love. Caleb Love that is. Similar to Davis, The 2022 First-Team All ACC team improved his efficiency and developed a "clutch" gene in the biggest of moments (i.e. Senior Night, Final Four, UCLA). If he can continue to minimize his poor shooting nights and stay hot, it'll go a long way towards Carolina's championship push.
Leaky Black, grad senior- One of the best defenders in college is back for one final season. After an up and down three seasons at UNC, Black established himself as a guy who could effectively erase the opposing team's best scorer. Who will be #LockedByLeaky next?
Pete Nance, grad senior forward- The key off-season acquisition from the Northwestern Wildcats that should help keep UNC among college basketball's best. He's as close to fan-favorite Brady Manek as you'll get in the transfer portal. That being said, don't necessarily expect a carbon copy of Manek's stellar run in the second half of last year. Although he doesn't shoot the three ball in masse, his 45% clip from beyond the arc last season is a career high. Nance should also improve the defense as he is more athletic than his predecessor.
Armando Bacot, senior center- The heart and soul of Carolina Basketball and an AP Preseason All-American in 2022. The senior from Richmond, VA is back for one final season and hopes to continue his national dominance. The "walking double-double" improved his scoring output by a whopping four points-per-game and he also made history, becoming the only player in the history of Division I basketball to record a double-double in six consecutive games of the NCAA Tournament. Mando is ready to rumble.
KEY RESERVES
The "Iron Five" propelled UNC within two minutes of winning the National Championship. However, the lack of a deep bench caused the Heels to run out of gas in the biggest moments of the season. Can one of these four players provide the minutes needed to put UNC on top?
Dontrez Styles, sophomore forward- As the season progressed, Styles began to gain the trust of the coaching staff and earning more minutes on the court as a result. His biggest play was a three-pointer at the beginning of overtime against the defending champion Baylor Bears in March Madness. Without that, UNC may have not made it out alive. Expect Dontrez to increase his minutes total this season as a key contributor.
Puff Johnson, junior guard- After an injury-riddled freshman season, Puff showed why he was recruited. In the National Championship game, Johnson nearly willed his way to victory, giving literally everything he had, scoring 11 points off the bench when the Heels were losing momentum. His high motor while he's on the court will help continue to earn the trust of Coach Davis as he establishes his rotation early in the year.
Justin McKoy, senior forward- The transfer from Virginia didn't get as much playing time as many expected in '21 but perhaps this year could be different. He'll spell Bacot as a veteran presence and give 6-10 minutes of high energy play.
D'Marco Dunn, sophomore guard- I'm not sure how many minutes Dunn will get as there is a logjam at guard and only so many minutes to be had. He should get an early opportunity over some of the freshman which will be nipping at his heels (pun fully intended) for playing time.
THE FRESHMAN
It's likely that one of these guys will eventually crack the rotation at some point in the season. The real question is, "Who will it be?"
Seth Trimble, guard- The younger brother of former Tar Heel J.P. Tokoto, Trimble looks to be the part if early reports are a good indication. His defense will be key to earning time on the court early on but I believe Trimble has massive star potential, he just might have to wait a year for his starting opportunity.
Jalen Washington, center- Coming off an ACL tear, it's almost a certainty that the Heels will take things slowly with Washington. Bacot is the clear starter on this squad but Coach Davis would be smart to get Washington in the mix when he is physically ready to compete. Washington and McKoy will battle for playing time.
Tyler Nickel, forward- Nickel was Virginia High School League’s all-time leading scorer with 2,909 points in 102 games. This dude can flat out ball and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the rotation sooner rather than later. It'll be tough to earn minutes with an already established top seven players but there's a decent chance Nickel could be the exception to the rule if he gets hot while he's in the game.
Will Shaver, center- He's not quite ready for the 2022 season to be a major contributor but having a year to watch and refine his skills will be invaluable when 2023 rolls around. In addition, he has a leg up on the other freshman, having been an early enrollee in the spring of 2022.
Biscuit Boys
If these guys are getting significant minutes, it's either senior night or biscuit time (scoring 100 points or more) in a blowout game.
Duwe Farris, senior forward- The guy with the coolest name on the team. The student section will get hype when this man sees the court on Senior Night.
Jackson Watkins, senior guard- The 6'1 senior from Richmond, VA made the biggest shot of his career. A free throw to give UNC their 100TH POINT of the game last season against NC State in Chapel Hill. You know what that means? BOJANGLES BISCUITS! Watkins embodies the "Biscuit Boys" motif and hopes to continue the trend in 2022.
Creighton Lebo, junior guard- Son of Jeff Lebo (played at UNC from '85-'89) is ready to help the Heels get BISCUITS in 2022.
Beau Maye, junior forward- The Maye brothers have blessed North Carolina athletics over the last few years. Beau joins the squad and 2022 and hopes to join the success of the family line. Can he give something for fans to cheer about off the bench?
SEASON PREDICTIONS
North Carolina will tip off the season with an in-state foe in the UNC Wilmington Seahawks on Monday, November 7th in Chapel Hill, an opponent that the Tar Heels should easily take down. College of Charleston, Gardner-Webb, and James Madison should also be wins as they discover who their key bench players will be and get the freshmen acclimated to the college game.
The Phil Knight Invitational [PKI] (Nov. 24th-27th) is the first early season tournament where UNC will be strongly tested. They should cruise past their first round matchup against Portland but will have a challenge against either #16 Villanova (Final Four in '21) or Iowa State (Sweet Sixteen in '21). On the other side of the bracket, Oregon, Alabama, UConn, and Michigan will battle it out to get to the PKI Championship Game. Ultimately, I think the Heels go 3-0 in Portland, win the PKI, and begin the season unblemished at 7-0.
A date on the road with the number 13th ranked Indiana Hoosiers in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge could pose some problems. The Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall in Bloomington will be rocking for their biggest game of the year. Coach Davis must help his team initiate a game plan to slow down AP Preseason All-American Trayce Jackson-Davis, a senior forward who averages over 18 PPG in 2021. In a narrow contest, I'm projecting Carolina to suffer their first loss of the year in a battle of historical blue bloods.
Following Indiana, they must shake off the disappointment because ACC play starts early on December 4th as a road trip to Blacksburg won't be easy. UNC will bounce back and beat Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and the Citadel. 10-1 is clearly a hot start but two Big Ten foes on neutral sites will keep the Heels on their...Heels. Both Ohio State (CBS Sports Classic) and #22 Michigan (inaugural Jumpman Classic) will be intriguing, especially the matchup against UM's Hunter Dickinson (7'1) against Armando Bacot in the post for the second consecutive season. It wouldn't surprise me if Carolina drops one of these games but I'll say they continue their streak and improve to 12-1 headed into the meat of ACC play.
Among the rest of the ACC slate, starting with a road matchup vs Pitt on December 30th, there are a few games that stick out to me. The road matchup in Charlottesville vs the Cavaliers will be a dogfight. UNC has traditionally struggled with Virginia in the past and I think they'll be in for another slugfest. Miami was on the cusp of their first Final Four appearance last season so the Heels need to be ready on February 13th for a challenging home game.
We can't forget about Saturday, February 4th, when UNC meets Duke for the first time since the Final Four matchup. It'll be extremely challenging to win here. The Blue Devils will pull out all the stops after getting embarrassed on their home court last year. UNC drops their third game of the year in Durham. It should be relatively smooth sailing from there until a Monday Night matchup against Florida State. As Senior Night against Duke approaches, the Heels will be caught looking ahead as the Seminoles handle the Heels in a late-season upset loss. However, UNC will rebound and split the series against Duke in the final game of the regular season.
If these predictions hold, UNC should be staring down a number one seed for the NCAA Tournament, having won sole possession of the regular season conference title. Since the Tar Heels haven't won the ACC Championship since 2016, I say they slip up in the semifinals to either a bubble ACC team on a run or a top-tier squad that might be more motivated to take down Carolina. However, as long as UNC doesn't go one-and-done in the ACC Tournament headed into March Madness, they'll lock down a one seed and head in as a clear favorite to hoist the championship trophy.
Projected losses: @Duke; @Virginia; @Florida State; @Indiana; ACC Championship loss in Semifinals
Regular Season Record: 28-5 (including ACC Tournament projections)
As for the NCAA Tournament, I'm not going to project all the teams since it's very hard to predict the entire field of 68 at this point in the year. However, I will say that I am projecting North Carolina to win the National Championship. There are plenty of other great contenders like Kansas, Houston, Gonzaga, and Kentucky. However, I believe that the pain of last year's shortcomings for Carolina will fuel them to cut down the nets in April. History repeats itself in Chapel Hill as Hubert Davis wins his first championship as head coach, solidifying his own legacy for years to come.
My early Final Four prediction:
North Carolina (ACC): Preseason top team in College Basketball; [Preseason rank: #1]
Houston (American): Great defense + deep tournament success + motivation of playing Final Four in hometown; [Preseason rank: #3]
Arkansas (SEC): After two straight trips to the Elite Eight, Musselman's squad finally breaks through. [Preseason rank: #10]
TCU (Big 12): My random Cinderella pick; after getting a #9 seed last year and winning their first tournament game in 35 years, the Horned Frogs make a stunning run to their first Final Four. [Preseason rank: #13]
Best Case: 1st in the ACC; #1 overall seed in March Madness; wins National Championship
Worst Case: 3rd in ACC; quarterfinal exit in ACC Tournament; loss in Sweet Sixteen
PREDICTION: 1 SEED in March Madness; National Champions
CONCLUSION
Coach Hubert Davis has set expectations sky-high in Chapel Hill once again. As it should be in Carolina. However, with great expectations comes great responsibility. While UNC is a clear championship contender, they'll need to be A LOT more consistent than last year if they hope to win another title. It's truly "championship or bust," just how they want it. Only time will tell if the disappointment from New Orleans will result in Redemption part two in Houston...Let's find out! Enjoy the college basketball season everyone!
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