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Game Analysis
What a way to end the NFL’s 100th season. It’s the biggest day in American sports as Super Bowl 54 takes flight in South Beach between the San Francisco 49ers (15-3) of the NFC and the Kansas City Chiefs (14-4) of the AFC. The last time a Super Bowl was hosted in Miami, it was Peyton Manning vs Drew Brees in a dramatic showdown. Nearly ten years later, we may have another blockbuster matchup in the making.
Arrowhead faithful have waited since Super Bowl IV (4) for this moment to see their team play in the “Big Game.” After years of postseason heartbreak, Kansas City finally has a team that could be around for the long haul. You’d have to be living under a rock in order to forget about the revolutionary Chiefs offense. It has been rolling on all cylinders as KC is led by their star QB Patrick Mahomes. I could’ve never envisioned his rise to stardom this fast and now he gets to play in the big show for the first time (so much for the “Madden Curse”).
It’s not just Mahomes magic though. Star tight end Travis Kelce and receiver Tyreek Hill are as explosive as they come and will undoubtedly make an impact in this one. Even when backup quarterback Matt Moore filled in for a pair of games, they still went toe to toe with the league’s best squads. Throw in running back Damien Williams to the mix and you have a championship caliber offense.
On the other side, It’s easy to see what San Francisco is all about. Their formula is one that relies on the run game and a strong defense. Niners running back Raheem Mostert is incredible and the defense can shut almost anyone down. Richard Sherman, Dee Ford, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner. Simply incredible. On the other side of the football, we should probably take a time machine back to the 1990s. In a league oriented by a high-flying passing attack, the 49ers offense looks like one you would see 30 years ago. Run, run, and more runs.
For many, the jury is still out on 49ers starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Although his playoff stats look like the next coming of Nathan Peterman, he’s still capable of being a stud. After all, he has passed for a trio of 4-touchdown games this season, shockingly one better than Mahomes this season. That being said, it’s clear that the 49ers game-plan is for Garoppolo to be a “game manager.” That term gets a bad rap as most people believe that you need a true playmaker at the quarterback position. Someone like a Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, or Drew Brees. However, San Francisco’s tried and true formula has them on the verge of their sixth Lombardi Trophy so why change now?
What are the keys to victory? For the Chiefs to emerge victorious, they need to avoid making boneheaded mistakes. Committing pass interference on a 3rd and 22? Going offsides multiple times? In what should be a close game, giving your opponent second-chance opportunities can be the difference in winning and losing. They can’t do that again like they did against Tennessee in the AFC Championship. On the defensive side of the ball, they must contain the run. Only Baltimore ran for more yards per game than the 49ers this season. If Jimmy G has to carry the load, it may be challenging to go toe to toe with the game plan that Eric Bieniemy has in store.
Frank Clark and Chris Jones are two pass rushers that can cause havoc with nearly 20 combined sacks this season. The Niners need to make sure they limit their impact on the game with short, quick passes to avoid the heat. The rest of the game plan for Kyle Shanahan’s squad is simple: run the ball effectively and be fundamentally sound on both sides of the ball. If they do that, there’s not much standing in their way.
I’ve noticed some trends that could be an indicator of how this contest will pan out. The Chiefs have been notoriously slow starters and fall behind early. If that happens against Robert Salah’s phenomenal defense, it could be a long day. Virtually everyone thinks that Patrick Mahomes is going to throw all over this defense. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 49ers make a statement and hold him in relative check compared to what we’ve seen the past couple of weeks. Expect a fast start for the Niners before the Chiefs start to settle in and make things interesting by the third quarter.
This clash is truly a “toss-up.” Ultimately, it comes down to “who do you trust more?” The 49ers defense or the Chiefs offense? I’ve always been a firm believer of the saying, “Offense wins games, defense wins championships.” I’m a big fan of what Andy Reid has built up in Kansas City and I feel confident that this won’t be the last time this core reaches a Super Bowl. However, I believe the 49ers have the most complete team right now and they don’t need to rely on one aspect of their roster to win games. So with that, I’m rolling with the San Francisco 49ers to hoist the Lombardi Trophy for the sixth time in franchise history.
Final Score: 49ers 34, Chiefs 29
The X-Factor
RB Raheem Mostert, 49ers
Yes, he may be considered one of their “star” players now but it’s no secret that the 49ers key to success is their rushing attack. Undrafted out of Purdue in 2015, the 5 '10 back has had quite the story. He bounced around six teams before finding a home in San Fran. Later, Mostert landed on the Niners practice squad before making a name for himself playing special teams and in the preseason. While Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida have dealt with injuries, Mostert has taken the reins of the starting spot and has dominated up to this point.
If the Chiefs defense is able to contain Mostert, the Niners can be had in this game. Mostert is fresh off a 29 carry, 220 yard day with four touchdowns added to the mix (all career highs). If not, the 49ers will not only win but they should run away from the competition.
WR Sammy Watkins, Chiefs
There are several weapons on this Chiefs team which makes it hard for the opposing defense to game plan against. Hill and Kelce should be the main focus of this defense, leaving room for Watkins to make an impact. In the AFC Championship Game, the former Clemson Tiger broke the game wide open with a 60 yard TD to essentially book Kansas City’s trip to Miami. San Fran’s defense is fantastic but they aren’t perfect as seen in the Saints game earlier this season. Perhaps Watkins can steal the spotlight in this one.
CB Emmanuel Moseley, 49ers
Former starting cornerback Akelo Witherspoon has dealt with injuries and subpar play for the majority of the season. This has paved the way for Emmanuel Moseley to enter the starting lineup once again. A practice-squad player in 2018, he will now line up against the likes of Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill in the Super Bowl. He has nine starts under his belt this season and has two interceptions (one in postseason). If he continues his hot play, it should be enough for the Niners to emerge victorious.
S Daniel Sorensen, Chiefs
He’s definitely not a household name but he has definitely made an impact for this squad. Look no further than the AFC Divisional game against the Texans. Sorensen made a huge stop on a fake punt to give the momentum back to the Chiefs for good. The 49ers may attempt to throw in a trick or two when KC is least expecting it. If he can stay on high alert like he has been all season, the Chiefs should be in great shape on the back end to prevent any game-breaking plays.
Bold Predictions
#1. 49ers TE George Kittle will fail to eclipse 50 yards receiving and will not catch a touchdown
#2. Kendrick Bourne will be San Francisco’s leading receiver; 5 REC for 83 yards
#3. Chiefs’ RB Damien Williams has double-digit receptions and a touchdown
#4. Patrick Mahomes throws a crucial 4th quarter interception which decides the game for good
Scoring Summary Prediction
1st Quarter:
Raheem Mostert 14 yd TD run; 7-0 SF
Deebo Samuel 26 yd TD run; 14-0 SF
2nd Quarter:
Tyreek Hill 53 yard TD REC from Mahomes; 14-7 SF
Raheem Mostert 12 yd TD run; 21-7 SF
Harrison Butker 54 yd FG; 21-10 SF
HALFTIME
3rd Quarter:
Robbie Gould 36 yd FG; 24-10 SF
Harrison Butker 27 yd FG; 24-13 SF
4th Quarter:
Williams 14 yd TD REC from Mahomes; 24-20 SF
Harrison Butker 44 yd FG; 24-23 SF
Robbie Gould 29 yd FG; 27-23 SF
Emmanuel Sanders pass to RB Matt Breida for 25 yd TD; 34-23 SF
Mahomes 7 yd TD run; (failed 2pt conv.) 34-29 SF
Madden NFL Sim: Chiefs 30, 49ers 27
Super Bowl MVP: Tyreek Hill, WR, KC (6 REC for 142 yards; 2 TDs)
Chiefs K Harrison Butker 28 yd GW FG w/ 4 seconds left
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