MIDLOTHIAN, Va. (March 15th, 2021)- After a two year wait, the triumphant return of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament is FINALLY here. Personally, the March Madness tournament is my all-time favorite sports weekend, even topping the likes of the Olympics, the World Cup and the Super Bowl. From “Selection Sunday” and getting the first look at the 68 teams to filling out crazy coin-flip brackets, and finally the very first weekend of non-stop college basketball. Simply remarkable.
This year’s tournament will take place in Indianapolis, Indiana in a “COVID-safe bubble.” The NBA’s bubble ultimately finished with a predictable champion in the Los Angeles Lakers. But how about the runner-up, the Miami Heat. A young team with a big time superstar took advantage of a fresh start. Perhaps the NCAA Tournament will see a similar phenomenon take place in Indianapolis with unprecedented circumstances.
This is such a unique tournament in several ways. The typical “blue bloods” aren’t at the top of their games. Duke and Kentucky won’t be in the tourney whereas UNC, Kansas, UCLA and Michigan State aren’t the high-seeds that we’ve come to expect. How about the "bid-stealers," teams that weren't supposed to make the tournament but make an unexpected run to win their conference tournament? We're looking at you, Georgetown and Oregon State.
Will the one seeds run the table or will a lower seed emerge from the shadows? Who’s taking home the hardware? Who’s on upset alert? How many brackets should you make? Read on to find out...
Best Defenses (63 PPG avg. or less allowed)- Loyola-Chicago, Houston, Liberty, St. Bonaventure, Virginia, San Diego State, Abilene Christian, Grand Canyon, North Texas, Clemson, Utah State, Mount St. Mary's, UCSB
Best Offenses (averaging at least 80 PPG)- Gonzaga, Colgate, Baylor, Iowa, Arkansas, LSU, Illinois, Ohio
HOT n’ COLD Scale
How are March Madness teams faring headed into the tournament?
HOT: Gonzaga (undefeated); Georgetown (won 8 of 10), Liberty (won 12 straight), San Diego State (won 14 straight), Georgia Tech (won 8 straight), Oklahoma State (won 8 of 10), Texas (won 8 of 10), Texas Southern (won 9 straight), Alabama (won 6 straight), Colgate (won 13 straight), Colorado (won 6 of 7), Morehead State (won 7 straight), Loyola-Chicago (won 6 straight), Iona (won 6 straight), Norfolk State (won 6 straight), Winthrop (won 7 straight)
COLD: Oklahoma (lost 5 of 6); UCLA (lost 4 straight), Villanova (lost 3 straight w/o Gillespie)
First Four Predictions
#16 Mount St. Mary's over #16 Texas Southern- The odds are against #16 seeds per usual but a chance to play a one-seed is a great opportunity for both programs. Keep it close and gain respect from the nation. Somehow win it like UMBC did and go down in history. Who wouldn't want to be a part of that? As for this one, I'll take the Mountaineers of Emmitsburg, MD and their solid defense to advance. Mount St. Mary's 73, Texas Southern 70 (OT)
#11 Wichita State over #11 Drake- Both of these mid-major teams should be extremely grateful that they sneaked into the Field of 68 teams. For the Bulldogs, they started the season 18-0 before tripping up to Valparaiso and finishing 25-4. Meanwhile, the Shockers were upset by Cincinnati in the AAC semifinals, nearly jeopardizing their chance at the Big Dance. In what should be a close game, I look to WSU's guard Tyson Etienne (avg. 17 PPG) as he should be able to will the Shockers to victory. Wichita State 70, Drake 66
#16 Norfolk State over #16 App State- Here's a fun fact: Appalachian State has made the tournament 3 times, all 21 years apart. Take it in Mountaineer fans because they won't be back here until 2042. All jokes aside, this should be another close contest. I'm gonna roll with NSU since their offense seems to be a little bit more potent and consistent. The winner of this one gets Gonzaga. Enough said... Norfolk State 76, App State 65
#11 Michigan State over #11 UCLA- It's not often that we see two "blue blood" college basketball powers in the "First Four." To me, this game is a relatively easy one to predict. The Bruins are headed in the wrong direction, losing four straight games. Meanwhile, the Spartans late-season surge has them in a great position to win a game or two in the tournament. Michigan State 64, UCLA 61
Top First Round Matchups
#8 Loyola-Chicago vs #9 Georgia Tech- Very quietly, the Yellow Jackets have put together a fantastic season in the ACC. Winners of eight straight to win the ACC Tournament and the automatic bid, this team will be plenty hungry since this is their first appearance in March Madness since 2010. Don’t forget about ACC Defensive Player of the Year Jose Alvarado. In a team that resembles the 2017 South Carolina Final Four team, the Ramblin’ Wreck are in position to potentially pull the upset of the tourney. To get a chance at Illinois, they'll have to get past the Ramblers.
Everything about Loyola checks out. A ranked non-Power 5 conference team is a great bet to advance in the tournament. I could see this game going either way. Although the Ramblers will be a trendy pick considering their Final Four run in 2017-18 season, I think the Yellow Jackets veteran experience will propel them to a narrow win.
#5 Villanova vs #12 Winthrop- This game is Nova's worst nightmare. The injury bug may derail this team from making a deep run. After Collin Gillespie tore his MCL against Creighton, Justin Moore followed suit with a “serious” ankle injury. After getting upset by Providence in the regular season finale, they bowed out in the Big East quarterfinals to Georgetown. Winthrop is a very unselfish and balanced basketball squad as senior guard Chandler Vauldrin ranks 7th in the country with nearly seven assists per game. It’s been a great season for Jay Wright’s squad but fate does not seem to be on Nova’s side. If Winthrop's offense shows up, I fully expect the Eagles to soar.
#7 UConn vs #10 Maryland- Can the Huskies do it again? UConn hasn’t consistently made the tournament in the last decade but when they have, it’s often resulted in a National Championship run. In the last five tournament appearances, three of them have finished in the Final Four. Will lightning strike for the fourth time? I think Maryland will have something to say about that. The Terps are extremely battle tested and have beaten Illinois, Purdue, and Wisconsin so I'll lean towards Mark Turgeon's squad in a nail biter.
#6 San Diego State vs #11 Syracuse- Ready for an old-school defensive slugfest? Between the hard-nosed Aztecs' defense and Syracuse's patented zone D, expect this game to be in the mid-50s. Amidst all the scoring nowadays, it's nice to sit back and watch a fundamentally sound game of basketball. The winner of this one has a great chance of making a run to the Sweet Sixteen or even the Elite 8 as a tourney cinderella. Ultimately, I'm rolling with the 'Cuse to get it done for the classic 11 over 6 upset.
Bracket Analysis
*My definition of a Final Four sleeper is a 5 seed or lower*
West Region
This is the region I feel the most confident in. Gonzaga should be able to waltz into the Final Four unless COVID or injuries play a major part in this tournament. On the other side of the West region are two intriguing Pac-12 teams. Oregon had won 11 of 12 before getting upset by Oregon State in the Pac-12 tournament semifinals. Meanwhile, USC has impressive freshman forward Evan Mobley who will likely become a top five draft pick in the 2021 NBA Draft. On the right day, either one of these teams has potential to upset #2 seeded Iowa and make a run to the Elite Eight.
My Final Four Pick: #1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (WCC)- As talented as Gonzaga has been for the last decade, it has surprised me that they’ve only reached one Final Four. However, making it to at least the Final Four seems extremely likely this time around. This may be the best team that coach Mark Few has had the privilege to coach. Virginia or Iowa could give the 'Zags a bit of trouble but since they've already beaten both of them this season, they should know what to expect. It would be a major disappointment if Gonzaga didn't make a deep run in March. Anyone that's watches college basketball knows that this is a historically great team.
Biggest threat to #1: #2 Iowa Hawkeyes (Big Ten)- If the Hawkeyes end up taking on Gonzaga in a rematch of December's barnburner, they should like their chances. Although they lost, a 99-88 defeat, the Hawkeyes know that their defense is the key to victory. Both squads have top ten offenses so it's likely we'd see another shootout. Led by 2X Player of the Year Luka Garza and junior guard Joe Wieskamp (47% 3pt shooter), the Hawkeyes could very well be the team to end the 'Zags undefeated season and make their first Final Four in school history.
Sleepers to consider: Oregon, USC
Biggest scare: #4 Virginia Cavaliers vs #13 Ohio Bobcats- The defending national champions have been dealing with COVID issues and their practice schedule has been manipulated as a result. Virginia has their entire team in quarantine and can't leave Charlottesville until Thursday. If things go smoothly, they'll travel to Indianapolis on Friday before a game on Saturday night. If they are unable to play, either Louisville will take their spot as the "69th team" or if it's after Tuesday, Ohio would advance to the next round on a "no-contest." The Bobcats offense is EXPLOSIVE and they've scored 80+ points in the last three games. If UVA is rusty without practicing and Ohio stays hot, watch out!
Bold Prediction: #12 UC Santa Barbara upsets #5 Creighton- Don't get me wrong, Creighton is still the best team in the Big East. It is concerning however that the Bluejays are coming off their worst performance of the season against the Hoyas. UCSB is pretty average at defending the 3, allowing 33.3% of shots (t-156th in DI). Meanwhile, Creighton shoots the 3-pointer at a 36.6% clip, good for 51st among all Division I teams. However their last two performances, they've shot under 30%. Santa Barbara will need to stop junior guard Marcus Zegarowski who can shoot as well as any one in the country at his peak.
South Region
The South region is full of solid and balanced teams. While Baylor is the clear favorite, Ohio State has been playing great basketball as of late and will likely be destined to take on Baylor in the Elite Eight. That being said, there are a couple of underrated teams that you should know about. The 10 and 11 seeds in the South have potential to bust brackets and win their respective first-round matchups. The ACC Coach of the Year, Mike Young, has given new life to Virginia Tech's program future. Beating Virginia and Clemson this season should give them confidence despite their long COVID pause. Meanwhile, #11 Utah State has beaten #6 seeded San Diego State (Midwest region) twice this season, showing that they can compete against anyone. For the rest of this region, Purdue has been swallowed up by a prolific Big Ten conference but they look and feel like a classic Sweet Sixteen team and have an easy road to make it there.
My Final Four Pick: #1 Baylor Bears (Big 12)- The Bears haven't quite been able to reach the magic of their mid-season domination but that doesn't mean they still aren't a championship level team. With MaCio Teague and Jared Butler playing at a remarkable level, it's tough to see them not making it deep into the Big Dance. Their average margin of victory is 17 points which is uber impressive in a Power Five conference such as the Big 12. Baylor hasn't made the Final Four since 1950 but in a few weeks, I expect the drought to end.
Biggest threat to #1: #8 North Carolina Tar Heels (ACC)- Have you ever read “The Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde?” The Tar Heels may be the personification of that classic novel. UNC is the best rebounding team in college basketball and although I think there are better teams than the Tar Heels in the South region (Ohio State, Texas Tech), it's all about matchups for me. Teams like Ohio State are "smaller" (all starters under 6'7) and UNC is huge. Senior Garrison Brooks (6'10), freshman Da’Ron Sharpe (6'10), and sophomore Armando Bacot (6'10) will need to perform at a high level for Carolina to reach their potential. While the team’s inconsistent play will likely keep Roy Williams’ squad from becoming a serious tournament threat, they have the formula to shock the nation and upset Baylor.
Other sleepers to consider: Texas Tech
Biggest scare: #3 Arkansas vs #14 Colgate- First to 100? The 2nd and 5th ranked offense in the nations are almost certain to give us fireworks in Indy. Colgate has the best chance out of the lower seeds to pull a massive upset. The Raiders have the nation's best three-point defense, holding teams to an average of just 26.1% from the field. They also rank #9 in NET rankings if you are into analytics. That may be skewed a bit since they've only played 15 games this year. I don't have the guts to pick the upset but I'm excited to see this one.
Bold Prediction: #6 Texas Tech makes the Sweet Sixteen- Perhaps this is me making amends for the last tournament when I predicted the Red Raiders to lose to #14 Northern Kentucky in Round 1...and then they made the National Championship game. This installment isn't quite as dominate as the 2018-19 team but they have potential to pull off an upset.
Midwest Region
The midwest region is sure to bust A LOT of brackets. I'm not sure what is a tougher game to predict. The 6 vs. 11 matchup (San Diego State/Syracuse), 7 vs. 10 (Clemson/Rutgers), and 8 vs. 9 (Loyola-Chicago/Georgia Tech) are all toss-ups to me. Even the Oregon State Beavers and their surprising run to the tournament has some intrigue against a solid Tennessee squad. While the first round upsets have a lot of potential, the end result seems clear to me. The road to the Final Four goes through the Illini and I'm not sure anyone will be able to knock them off. I could see an opportunity for a surprise team to make a run to the Elite Eight on the other end with Houston being a prime team to get upset earlier than expected.
My Final Four Pick: #1 Illinois Fighting Illini (Big Ten)- A preseason favorite by many, Illinois has met expectations up to this point and are a few wins away from reaching their first Final Four since 2005. Their most impressive performance was a 23 point road win against Michigan without their star guard Ayo Dosunmu. They’ve had some early-season mental lapses against inferior teams but show up against the Big Ten’s best including wins against Michigan and Ohio State on the road. The Illini are a championship caliber team and they should find their way through a treacherous Midwest region.
Biggest threat to #1: #4 Oklahoma State (Big 12)- OK State might have gotten a raw deal on Selection Sunday. Not only were they severely under-seeded but they will likely be forced to play Illinois if they get that far. The Cowboys have the “IT” factor and could make some serious noise. What is that you ask? Is it Cade Cunningham, the presumed number one pick in the 2021 NBA Draft? Is it their star sophomore guard Avery Anderson who shoots an impressive 48% from the field? How about their ability to thrive in close games? Winning 8 out of the last 10 games is an impressive feat in one of the toughest conferences in basketball. If any team can knock off the Illini, it's the Cowboys.
Other sleepers to consider: Loyola-Chicago, Georgia Tech, San Diego State, Syracuse
Biggest scare: #7 Clemson Tigers vs #10 Rutgers Scarlet Knights- It wouldn't be much of an upset if Rutgers pulls it off. Both Clemson and Rutgers play similar style games with subpar shooting and solid defense. However, Clemson is a better version of Rutgers and their three wins against Purdue, Florida State, and Alabama are hard to deny. Likewise, Rutgers is a horrendous 3 pt shooting team (291st in DI) which plays into the hands of the Tigers defense. Clemson should win but it'll be closer than it needs to be.
Bold Prediction: #11 Syracuse Orange makes the Sweet Sixteen- Jim Boeheim's Orange are almost always on the bubble but more times than not, they find a way to deliver come March. If they can get past a tough first round matchup, I like their odds to continue the momentum against #3 West Virginia in the Round of 32.
East Region
Out of all the regions, this one seems to be destined for a "cinderella" to make a run at the Final Four. Michigan senior forward Isaiah Livers, a 43% 3pt shooter, will likely be out for the tournament with a stress fracture in his foot. After losing 3 of the last 5 games, the Wolverines' championship hopes have taken a major hit. The other top seeds of Alabama, Florida State, and Texas what looks to be like a golden opportunity to make a run to the Final Four. Two cinderellas that I could see in this region are Georgetown, the unexpected Big East tournament champions, and LSU, who narrowly fell short in the SEC title game.
My Final Four Pick: Texas Longhorns (Big 12)- The beneficiaries of the "chaos" region will be Shaka Smart's Longhorns. Ten years ago, Smart's VCU Rams made an unexpected run to the Final Four. Texas, winners of six straight games headed into March Madness, have really caught their stride. Chances are, at least one #1 seed will go down and I think Texas will emerge from the fray of a challenging Sweet Sixteen matchup and Elite Eight matchup. For the first time since 2003, the words that Hook 'em nation have been pining for can finally be said: TEXAS. IS. BACK.
Other sleepers to consider: LSU, Georgetown, UConn, Maryland
Biggest scare: #11 Michigan State/UCLA vs #6 BYU- I'm not that high on UCLA but if Michigan State wins their play-in game, we could see some big time drama in the East region. Marquee wins over Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan are a true eye-opener. My one concern is they don’t have anyone outside of junior forward Aaron Henry that averages over 10 PPG this year. Maybe it's the senior guard Joshua Langford that can rise to the occasion. Regardless, they’ll need someone else to step up if they plan to upset the Cougars and their solid offense.
Bold Prediction: #8 LSU makes the Elite Eight- I wasn't that high on the Tigers a couple of weeks ago but I've completely changed my tone. They are the biggest threat to #1 Michigan because it's a classic case of "expect the unexpected." Everyone is expecting Florida State to knock off the Wolverines but it will come sooner than people think. With a stellar offense, LSU can outpace UM. The one thing that concerns me is LSU's defense is not very good at all. If the offense fails to produce, they can easily lose to St. Bonaventure in the first round. This pick is a gamble but the bracket usually have one surprise in them. I think it's set up for a bracket-busting game.
Final Four Predictions
#1 Illinois Fighting Illini vs #1 Baylor Bears- Earlier in the year, Baylor defeated Illinois 82-69 but in a rematch, I'd favor Brad Underwood's squad. Their entire starting lineup can shoot. I'd take their top-7 over anyone in the nation. Adam Miller, Andre Curbello, and De'Monte Williams help to keep the defenses honest away from the Illini's two superstars. If Baylor can find their mid-season form again, they can easily win this one. However, I'm not sure they'll be able to. Fighting Ilini 85, Bears 81
#1 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs #3 Texas Longhorns- Texas has three guards that have the potential to take over a game at any time. Matt Coleman III is real fun to watch and saved his best for last, scoring a season-high 30 points to win the Big 12 tournament. The issue for Shaka Smart's team is that despite their great guard play, Gonzaga can do everything that Texas can do...but much more efficiently. A Final Four run is a big win for Texas but Gonzaga past tournament failures have them motivated for a push back to the national championship game. 'Zags win this one easily. Bulldogs 93, Longhorns 73
For a neutral college basketball fan, this would be the best National Championship game possible. Arguably the two best teams in college basketball right now with a slew of NBA-caliber players and two programs that have never won the title. What more could you want? I'm torn on who to pick here. These teams are almost identical. Both teams allow an average of 69 PPG so defense won't be a deciding factor. Gonzaga is the only team who averages 90 PPG on offense. You might say, "Well they play in the West Coast Conference so they're not THAT good." WRONG. Against UVA, West Virginia, Iowa, and Kansas (all Power 5 conferences), they scored AT LEAST 87 points per game. Simply insanity.
Illinois and Baylor are the only two teams in the nation that have the offensive and defensive capabilities of upsetting Gonzaga for the National Championship. This is a different Gonzaga team, not the one that gets upset in the Round of 32. Jalen Suggs, Corey Kispert, Drew Timme, and Joel Ayayi all shoot over 50% from the field and at least 33% from 3. All of this suggests that I'll roll with Gonzaga, right? Not so fast. We haven't seen an undefeated national champion since the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers, one of the best college basketball teams EVER. Maybe it's destiny that the tournament is back in Indiana to potentially crown an undefeated champion. That being said, it's so hard to do so.
Remember the 2015 Kentucky Wildcats? Yes, the one with NBA stars Anthony Davis, Devin Booker, and Karl Anthony-Towns. They lost. After not having a tournament last year, this championship game will make up for everything. In a double overtime thriller for the ages, Illinois knack for winning close games and playing in the country's toughest conference will pay dividends on the biggest stage. The 'Zags run at perfection will end one game short as the Illini win their first National Championship in school history. Fighting Illini 107, Gonzaga 102 (2OT)
National Champions: Illinois Fighting Illini (1st title)
My Bracket
Upset picks:
Round of 64
Round of 32
Sweet Sixteen
Elite Eight
None
Final Four & Nat'l Championship
None
Bracket Advice
1. Don’t pick a 16 seed to win a game
But, but....UMBC won in 2018 right? That is very true but for something that’s happened only once out of 135 times, you’ll be hard pressed to see it again this year. If you’re playing for fun, go ahead and be my guest. However, if you’re playing for money or any other competitive bracket game, you have a whole lot more to lose than gain.
2. Pick AT LEAST one Big Ten team to reach the Final Four
From top to bottom, this conference has quality. With nine B1G teams in, five of which are top-25 teams that provide a lot of value. When making your bracket picks, don’t be scared off by a double digit loss team like Michigan State or Maryland. When you play ranked teams almost every night, the record isn’t going to look spotless. While Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio State are the top dogs, I wouldn’t be surprised if any Big Ten tournament team makes a big time run. They’ve all been battle tested and should produce when the lights shine bright.
3. Consider picking a team with a five seed or lower to advance the Final Four
Since 2010, a team seeded as a five seed or lower has made it to the Final Four with the exception of 2012. The parity of the tournament is what makes it so captivating to watch. Is your team the next George Mason, VCU, or Loyola-Chicago? Anything goes in March.
4. Lucky 11? Pick an 11 seed to make the Sweet Sixteen
Since 2014, there has been at least one 11 seed to win two tournament games. The last time that didn’t happen was 2013 where Madness truly ensued as #13 La Salle, #15 FGCU, and #12 Oregon made it to the Sweet Sixteen. Moral of the story? In all likelihood, a double digit seed is going to make waves once again in 2021. The question is...who will it be?
5. You’re not getting a perfect bracket so have fun with it
Could I win the Mega Millions tomorrow? Possibly. Is it likely? Absolutely not. At the end of the day, everyone comes in hoping that they’ll buck the trend and be the first person to hold up a perfect bracket. Do you want to know your odds of this remarkable feat? If you just flipped a coin for all the games, you’d have a 9.2 quintillion to 1 chance. Have fun and make as many brackets as you wish. Good luck and remember, “Don’t bet on it.”
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