WACO, TX- (August 26th, 2023)- I'm going to get straight to the point. It's truly "now-or-never" for this group of Tar Heels. While this statement may seem a bit aggressive, there are many indications that the team is going "all-in" for 2023.
At 71 years of age, Mack Brown isn't getting any younger. The honeymoon period is over and it's time to establish some much-needed consistency in the program. North Carolina isn't getting hype of a true playoff contender but still have plenty of expectations, starting with preseason Heisman contender Drake Maye. The team let the 6'5 phenom have a ton of say in who UNC hired for offensive coordinator, which is shocking considering Maye will likely be in Chapel Hill for just one more season. With the addition of two dynamic transfers at receivers, the staff is pulling out all the stops to win at every cost.
This isn’t a season that can’t be wasted with a generational prospect at quarterback. When it’s all said and done, Maye could go down as North Carolina’s best QB. With comparisons to Peyton Manning and Justin Herbert, it's clear the sky's the limit in the eyes of scouts. Regardless, if Maye and Mack and the rest of the Tar Heels can’t deliver the goods (aka wins), it won’t really matter in the end. Florida State and Clemson are the leaders atop the ACC but North Carolina can be right there if they step up and "Be the One."
In the Mack 2.0 era, North Carolina has shown they can’t handle prosperity, pressure, or success of any kind. Can they rewrite the script, exorcize the demons and finally prove skeptics wrong? Let’s dive in and find out…
OFFENSE
The offense will look a little bit different in 2023. North Carolina will have a new offensive coordinator as former Central Florida coordinator Chip Lindsey takes over for Phil Longo who moved on to coach the Wisconsin Badgers. UCF's offense in 2022 was comparable to UNC's in several major categories such as points-per-game and total offensive yards. The Heels are hoping that a change in philosophy will pay big dividends in the win column.
Quarterback: The pièce de résistance (showpiece) of the offense. Make way for Drake Maye. He’ll certainly have a lot on his mind in 2023. Not only will he be touted as a top quarterback prospect for the 2024 NFL Draft but he'll also be tasked with elevating Carolina to new heights, including potentially finishing as a Heisman Finalist. At backup, Conner Harrell will be QB2. Reports are that he's looked a little shaky in practice so if Maye goes down, it might be rough sledding for the remainder of the season.
Running Back: The rushing attack wasn’t as effective in 2022 as it was with Javonte Williams, Michael Carter, and Ty Chandler but there is still talent across the board. British Brooks is coming back for his final season for North Carolina after tearing his ACL just weeks before the season began. Elijah Green went from exclusively a special teams stalwart to the lead back after the team needed a spark on the ground. He was arguably the biggest surprise on the offense last season.
Omarion Hampton and George Pettaway are two younger backs with inconsistencies in their game but explosive potential as they showed at times last year. The team is hoping Hampton can develop as the lead back with Pettaway making a contribution as a versatile receiver in addition to his rushing talents. Finally, there is Caleb Hood. He has taken advantage of his opportunities on the field but has struggled to stay healthy which will likely force him to take a reserve role on the team. When the dust settles, expect Green and Hampton to lead the rushing attack in 2023. However, all five backs should get playing time.
Wide Receiver: Prolific receivers Josh Downs and Antoine Green have turned pro, leaving the door open for a pair of veteran transfers to come in and thrive. UNC learned from their mistake of not replenishing talent at receiver when Sam Howell regressed in his junior year following the departure of Dazz Newsome and Dyami Brown. In the slot position, expect Georgia Tech transfer Nate McCollum to work with Kobe Paysour, who impressed last year with the Tar Heels.
On the outside, former Kent State receiver Devontez "Tez" Walker will likely command a starting spot as well, providing a reliable deep threat for the offense. There is a bit of uncertainty with Walker as the NCAA recently denied his transfer waiver due to him being a two-time transfer. He wanted to be closer to his ailing grandmother and expected to be able to play this season. However, the NCAA changed the rules AFTER he had already transferred to North Carolina. The expectation was that he should be grandfathered in and be allowed to play. The NCAA did not agree. The outcry was so outrageous that even North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper is getting involved.
Predictably, the team is appealing since Walker's transfer to NC Central was canceled due to COVID-19, meaning he never played a snap for the team. If the appeal is denied, it could change the course of the season for North Carolina and Walker's future prospects as an NFL receiver. Ideally, the NCAA does the right thing and gives Tez a shot to play with Maye.
J.J. Jones will likely start on the outside regardless of Walker's status. To complement these receivers, expect Andre Greene, Jr. to take the next step in his development. Gavin Blackwell should see the field in a rotational role as well.
Tight End: North Carolina has arguably the best trio of tight ends in the country. Bryson Nesbit could see an expanded role in the offense as his athleticism could boost him up the draft boards. Kamari Morales has found a knack for getting into the end-zone and John Copenhaver has a great mix of blocking and receiving ability. This trio has shown to be a reliable outlet for the offense and should continue to thrive once again.
Offensive Line: The Heels will have some new faces on the offensive line. The question marks come at the guard position as Ed Montilus and Jonathan Adorno will hold down the left and right guard spot respectively. They are veterans in the program but haven't played full seasons as a starter. At left tackle, senior William Barnes is the clear choice to protect Maye's blind side. These three will need to step up in order for this offense to click on all cylinders. Rounding out the offensive line is right tackle Spencer Rolland and center Corey Gaynor retaining their starting spots.
DEFENSE
Linebackers: The captains of the defense are easily Cedric Gray and Power Echols, the heart of the linebacker core. In what should be a top ten linebacking core in 2023, they’ll be key to the success of the defense. Barring injury, this duo should seldomly leave the field. Amare Campbell (transfer), Amari Gainer (transfer), and redshirt freshman Sebastian Cheeks will find their way into the lineup in a rotational role.
Defensive Linemen: Put up or shut up. This group NEEDS to perform in 2023. Kaimon Rucker is easily Carolina’s most productive pass rusher and another great season will land him on an NFL roster. Some other highly recruited players need to hold their weight. Myles Murphy was getting first-round draft hype but an injury-riddled season slowed his development in 2022. Expect Murphy to bounce back in a major way as he attempts to regain his draft stock.
Tomari Fox might have been forgotten by some fans as he's coming off his year-long suspension for use of a banned substance. His energy is desperately needed as Fox will greatly improve this anemic pass rush.
Five star Travis Shaw could be the key to a dominate pass rush. As Shaw begins to adjust to the college game, a breakout season would be massive. If he can reach his potential and draw double teams from the competition, it'll open opportunities for the other lineman to shine. Jahvaree Ritzie, Jacolbe Cowan, Desmond Evans, and Kevin Hester will all see time in the rotation.
Defensive Backs: The biggest facelift of the defense will come with the cornerback position. Fan-favorite Storm Duck and former five-star recruit Tony Grimes are out. Into the lineup will be Virginia Tech transfer Armani Chatman and ETSU transfer Alijah Huzzie. Huzzie has a reputation for being a ballhawk, picking off 12 passes in his three collegiate years. Cornerback Marcus Allen had some key moments and should be in the rotation with Huzzie and Chatman.
Safety Will Hardy impressed as true freshman last year. Hardy’s highlight was a game-sealing interception against Duke on their final offensive drive. Giovanni Biggers should maintain his spot as the free safety with Don Chapman getting some rotational minutes as well. Chapman flirted with leaving the program but decided to come back for one final season.
DeAndre Boykins, who had a breakout 2022 season, and Georgia St. transfer Antavious "Stick" Lane will lock down the STAR (hybrid safety) position.
Special Teams: After struggles last year with kicker Noah Burnette, Ryan Coe will supplant him from Cincinnati. Coe was 19-23 last season and made 100% of his extra points. His kicking range is a little bit of an unknown as he has only attempted (and made) a single kick from 50 or more yards. Punter Ben Kiernan will finish his final season with the Tar Heels as will senior long snapper Drew Little.
SEASON PREDICTIONS
It’s time to settle the score in the “Battle for Carolina.” Spencer Rattler vs Drake Maye. This one has the makings of an instant classic. In Week 1, anything can happen. Much of the core remembers UNC's embarrassing effort in the Mayo Bowl during Sam Howell's final game with the Tar Heels. Can they exact revenge and get off to a fast start? With North Carolina’s track record in opening games, I’m going to roll with the Shane Beamer led Gamecocks to take the Week 1 contest. South Carolina 34, North Carolina 31- L [0-1]
It’ll be nearly impossible to top last year’s classic 63-61 shootout but with two in-state rivals, anything is possible. This year's App State team isn't as strong while the Tar Heels should be improved on the defensive side of the ball where they looked hapless in Boone. UNC will rebound in a major way with a convincing win over the Mountaineers. North Carolina 45, Appalachian State 21- W [1-1]
Minnesota's defense is no joke and the physicality must be matched for UNC to win this game. The Gophers ranked in the top five in scoring defense and top ten in yards allowed. Bruising backs like Omarion Hampton and British Brooks will come in handy for a hard-hitting battle. If the Heels get gashed on the ground themselves, I highly doubt they walk out with a victory. The difference for me is this matchup being in Chapel Hill where points will come at a premium. Expect Maye to make one extra play as the Heels show their close game clutchness once again. North Carolina 20, Minnesota 14- W [2-1]
Pittsburgh has always proven to be a tough team to beat in recent years and 2023 will be no different. They are one of the few teams outside of Clemson to win the ACC in the last decade, winning the title in 2022. Boston College transfer Phil Jurkovec takes over for Kedon Slovis who had a disappointing year with Pitt last year. If UNC can quiet the crowd early, this will be a convincing Tar Heels win like last year's homecoming game. If Pitt gets out to a 10-0 or 14-0 lead, I'm not sure UNC will be able to punch back. That being said, I'll take Mack Brown's squad to squeeze out a W. North Carolina 30, Pittsburgh 27- W [3-1]
The Orange is a team that you don’t want to mess around with. They've upset Clemson twice in the past and have a formula on the ground that can expose a team like North Carolina that has struggled in keeping gap integrity on the defensive line. QB Garrett Shrader is a gritty player and will fight until the final whistle. I could very well see UNC slip up if they come out sleepy following their bye week. UNC plays sloppy early, falling down 17-3 at the half but goes on a second-half tear to win another close game. North Carolina 30, Syracuse 27- W [4-1]
After four straight wins against the Hurricanes, is Miami due to take down the Tar Heels? It all depends on a bounce-back season for quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. Once considered a first-round prospect for the NFL Draft, Van Dyke regressed in his first full season as a starter. The favorites to win the Coastal floundered to a paltry 5-7 record and missing out on a bowl game. North Carolina’s pass rush needs to step up against an immobile Van Dyke here. Registering a handful of sacks and perhaps a turnover should be enough to get by an improved Miami team. The third straight three-point victory. North Carolina 34, Miami 31- W [5-1]
UVA is going to be horrible this year which means North Carolina is likely in for the fight of their lives. I don’t think this game should be particularly close if this team has a pulse. If it was on the road, I’d be a bit nervous considering UNC’s history in Charlottesville. North Carolina 42, Virginia 20- W [6-1]
Every season under Mack Brown, there seems to be one game that UNC shouldn’t lose but instead, lays a massive egg. For the previous two seasons, that has come courtesy of the Yellow Jackets. Last season, UNC was 9-1 with an outside chance at the College Football Playoff. The Tar Heels blew a 17-0 lead in an eventual 21-17 loss. There will be a shocking loss somewhere and I’m predicting a rising Jackets team to win their third straight against Carolina. Bring the pitchforks. Georgia Tech 24, North Carolina 16- L [6-2]
This should be the only automatic win on the schedule for North Carolina. Anything more than a beatdown should raise an eyebrow. North Carolina 52, Campbell 7- W [7-2]
The Battle for the Victory Bell has had some EPIC battles over the last three seasons. Head coach Mike Elko helped elevate this Duke squad to look extremely confident after a few years of futility. the Blue Devils could even be a dark-horse to make the ACC Championship if Florida State or Clemson has a down year. North Carolina needs to do a better job of stopping the run this time around, allowing nearly 300 in the last contest. Stop the run and the game should be theirs. Duke has one of the better defenses in the ACC so I wouldn’t expect as many points as last season. UNC kicks a last-second field goal to escape the Blue Devils and improve to 8-2 on the year. North Carolina 23, Duke 21- W [8-2]
North Carolina could change the perception of their program with a convincing win…or just any win against a premiere foe. The Tigers will likely be the best opportunity to do that. UNC lost UGLY in a 39-10 beat down in the ACC Championship. While I don’t see Carolina getting completely destroyed again, the talent and coaching gap hasn’t closed enough for me to pick the upset here. Clemson 38, North Carolina 23- L [8-3]
UNC has suffered two heartbreaking losses to their rivals in Raleigh in the previous two seasons. Can they right the ship and end their skid? A post-Thanksgiving matchup very well could decide the season's fate. A return trip to the ACC Championship could be at stake, who knows? While NC State's defense should be strong once again, the question marks lie on the offensive side of the ball. UVA transfer Brennan Armstrong had a down year in 2022 after a dynamic 2021 season. Whichever version of Armstrong that the Wolfpack gets could determine how potent their offense will be. This will be a battle per usual but this time, UNC edges the W and finishes the season on a high note. North Carolina 28, NC State 24- W [9-3]
FINAL ANALYSIS
BEST CASE: 10-2 record, ACC Champ game appearance, New Year’s Six game
WORST CASE: 7-5 record, fifth in ACC
FINAL RECORD: 9-3 record (not incl. bowl game), third in ACC, Pop Tarts Bowl appearance
Offensive Team MVP: Drake Maye, QB
Defensive Team MVP: Kaimon Rucker, DL
To consider this a successful season for North Carolina, five goals will need to be checked off...
#1. Avoid the “stupid” loss
In 2020, UNC was ranked #5 in the country. In came the Seminoles. Down 28-3 to a horrible Florida State team, the Heels rallied back before ultimately falling short 31-28. In 2021, Sam Howell and North Carolina’s high-flying offense looked lost in a 17-10 defeat to Virginia Tech in the season opener, conceding six sacks and deflating their lofty hopes for the season.
This year, games against Campbell, Virginia, Georgia Tech and Appalachian State should be relatively easy wins. One of those games will be a shocking loss if North Carolina hasn’t learned from its previous mistakes.
#2. Finish with a 10+ win season
North Carolina has finished with 6, 7, 8, and 9 wins respectively during Mack Brown’s four years in his second stint with the team. The natural progression would be 10 wins. Most predictions have UNC between 8 to 9 wins which would be fine considering the schedule. However, Mack Brown didn’t come back to win eight games. He came back to win ACC Championships and become a perennial winner.
The schedule isn’t a cakewalk but it isn’t the juggernaut of the SEC West division either. UNC only has to leave the Carolinas twice (@ Pittsburgh, @ Georgia Tech) so there really is zero excuse not to perform well as long as Drake Maye is healthy. Since 2000, North Carolina has had just one double-digit win season (2015). Winning 10 games would be a massive step in the right direction for this program. Anything less and it’s just more of the “same ‘ol Carolina.”
#3. Show some toughness on defense
I’d argue that North Carolina’s defense has gotten worse in each year since Mack Brown has arrived in Chapel Hill. It was already a mess in 2019 so that’s saying something. Last season, they got gashed in the air and through the ground. There weren’t many bright spots except for a flash here or there.
Getting pressure on the quarterback will be instrumental to the success of North Carolina’s secondary. The one thing that the defense did well is come up with a timely turnover when they absolutely had to have it. That helped contribute to their 9-1 start last year. The true test will be if they can show resiliency for 60 minutes every game. That remains to be seen.
#4. Win a “big” game
What is North Carolina’s biggest win in the last five years? Beating #9 Wake Forest in 2021 and the demolition of Miami in the 2020 season would probably constitute as the biggest victories. Are these changing the option of the nation? No.
They had their chance against Texas A&M in the Orange Bowl. They’ve had two cracks against Clemson and three against Notre Dame with nothing to show for it. Most recently, a Holiday Bowl win against a solid Oregon Ducks team could’ve given the team a boost into the offseason. Instead, it raised more questions with a last-second loss.
What opportunities for a “big” win will be there this year? The obvious choice is Clemson in Death Valley. The Tigers hardly slip up at home so to take down Dabo Swinney’s squad under the national spotlight would give UNC’s program a monster boost. However, there could be other options down the line such as an SEC, Big Ten, or Big 12 opponent in a New Year’s Six game. Winning the ACC Championship and defeating the likes of Florida State or Clemson in that environment would suffice as well.
Regardless, the Tar Heels must rise to the occasion and win a big game or else North Carolina won’t be taken seriously as a true national contender.
#5. Establish depth and show player development
There have been several big name players to leave the UNC program or not develop into the players that they were recruited to be. Tony Grimes, Keeshawn Silver, and Storm Duck are all out of the program after high hopes. Five-stars Travis Shaw and Zach Rice need to develop into stars or else the finger might be pointed away from players and pointed squarely at the coaching staff.
The best programs have great depth so a transfer, draft-eligible player or graduating player on either side of the ball won’t cripple a team. Stellar programs like Ohio State, Georgia, and Alabama can reload without missing a beat. UNC is hoping that they can one day become the same.
By way of Drake Maye, North Carolina has expectations. Maybe not as much as 2021 but they’re still alive and well. It’ll likely come down to Clemson, Florida State, and North Carolina for the ACC crown so anything less than a fight to the last week of the regular season would be a disappointment. This is a make-or-break season for Mack Brown. Anything less than eight wins and it’s a bust of a season. I’m curious to see what direction this program takes in just a few weeks.
BONUS: College Football Playoff Prediction:
National Champion: Georgia Bulldogs (third-straight title)
Comments