WACO, TX (March 19th, 2024)- THIS. IS. MARCH! I'll be brutally honest with you. I don't know why I keep writing articles for March Madness. It's not because I don't like writing. It's because the NCAA Tournament is the wackiest, craziest, and most unpredictable tournament in sports. Take my predictions with a grain of salt because chances are, I'll be wrong. It won't stop me from trying anyways so...LET'S JUMP INTO THE PREDICTIONS.
Best-of-the-Best
Best offenses (averaging at least 83 points per game [PPG]): Alabama, Arizona, Kentucky, Samford, Florida, James Madison, Gonzaga, Purdue, Illinois, Auburn
Best defenses (opponents PPG under 65): Houston, Saint Mary's, Virginia, Iowa State, McNeese, Wagner, Morehead St., UConn
Free Throw % (shooting at least 75% as a team): Clemson, Creighton, Alabama, Texas Tech, Kentucky, Stetson, Drake, Wisconsin, Oakland, Texas, Colorado State, Nebraska, North Carolina, Grand Canyon, Auburn
Three-point % (shooting at least 37% as a team): Kentucky, Purdue, Dayton, Northwestern, Colorado, Samford, McNeese, Baylor, Duke, Howard, Arizona, Stetson
Rebounds per game (at least 39 RPG): Texas A&M, Florida, Arizona, Illinois, North Carolina, Purdue, Western Kentucky, Charleston, BYU, New Mexico, St. Mary's, Alabama, Morehead St.
Hot n' Cold
Which teams are excelling down the stretch? Which teams are fading as March rolls around?
Top 10 SCORCHING HOT Teams (besides the obvious):
James Madison Dukes (31-3)- Won 13 straight games, won conference tournament
McNeese State (30-3)- Won 11 straight games, won conference tournament
Drake Bulldogs (28-6)- Won 10 of last 11 games, won conference tournament
NC State Wolfpack (22-14)- Won 5 games in 5 days, ACC Tournament Champions
Duquesne Dukes (24-11)- Won 8 straight games; first tournament appearance in 47 years, won conference tournament
New Mexico Lobos (26-9)- Won 5 of last 6 games, won conference tournament
South Dakota State Jackrabbits (22-12)- Won 8 straight games, won conference tournament
Oregon Ducks (22-11)- Won 4 straight games, won Pac-12 Tournament
Colorado Buffaloes (24-9)- Won 8 of 9 games
Nevada Wolf Pack (26-7)- Won 7 of last 8 games
Honorable Mentions:
Texas A&M Aggies (20-14)- Won 5 of last 6 games
Nebraska Cornhuskers (23-10)- Won 7 of last 9 games
Utah State Aggies (27-6)- Won 6 of last 7 games
Top 10 FREEZING COLD Teams:
Kansas Jayhawks (22-10)- Lost 4 of last 5 games
TCU Horned Frogs (21-12)- Lost 4 of last 6 games
Michigan State Spartans (19-14)- Lost 5 of last 7 games
Clemson Tigers (21-11)- Lost 3 of last 4 games
Alabama Crimson Tide (21-11)- Lost 4 of last 6 games
Dayton Flyers (24-7)- Lost 3 of last 6 games
Virginia Cavaliers (23-10)- Lost 4 of last 7 games
Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-13)- Lost 4 of last 6 games
Tennessee Volunteers (24-8)- One-and-done in conference tourney
Your bracket by the end of the week
First Four Predictions
#16 Howard Bison (18-16) def. #16 Wagner Seahawks (16-15)- For the first time since 2003, the Seahawks are in the big dance. Unfortunately, the road ends here. Wagner sports one of the best defenses in the country but they cannot score to save their lives. Meanwhile, the Bison, winners of 7 of their last 8 games, are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country. This game may start out ugly before Howard pulls away in the second half. Howard 71, Wagner 59
#10 Colorado State Rams (24-10) def. #10 Virginia Cavaliers (23-10)- If you enjoy a high-octane shootout, this is not the game for you. For years, Tony Bennett's Cavs have been known for their defense and more than ever, they need it to advance. Colorado State, knows how to share the basketball, ranking seventh in Division I in most assists per game (18.4 PPG). In a close game, free throws are crucial, an area that Virginia has struggled mightily in (last in ACC). I trust the Rams battle-tested offense to pull through in Dayton.
Colorado State 63, Virginia 60
#16 Montana State Bobcats (17-17) def. #16 Grambling State Tigers (20-14)- The Bobcats simply have a lot more offense than the Tigers. Leading the way is senior guard Robert Ford III. He took over in the Big Sky Tournament, averaging 22.7 PPG in that three-game stretch. If you know my tendencies, I love teams with experienced guard play. Grambling is playing in their first every NCAA Tournament game. Beginner's luck? I don't think so. Montana State 83, Grambling State 75
#10 Colorado Buffaloes (24-10) def. #10 Boise State Broncos (22-10)- This could be a "last shot wins" type of game. When I analyze both profiles, I think the Buffaloes have more guys that can consistently score. Their top five scorers average at least 12 PPG and 37% from three. That can be scary proposition for the Broncos, whose offense can be hit-or-miss. Colorado 82, Boise State 77
Top First Round Matchups
Which underrated matchup could prove to be an instant classic?
McNeese has only lost ONE game since November 28th, which is quite the feat. The issue is they haven't been challenged much at all in the Southland Conference. A validating win against an inconsistent Zags team could put them on the March Madness map. While I think the Cowboys are a good team, Mark Few simply doesn't lose in the first round. McNeese will need to rely on their defense to pull off the upset. It's unlikely but certainly possible.
It's been a tale of two halves for the Badgers this season. After starting 16-4, it hasn't been smooth sailing, going 6-9 in the last 15 games. However, Wisconsin has rebounded as of late with an impressive victory over #1 seeded Purdue and taking Illinois to the limit. Which iteration of Wisconsin that shows up will determine whether or not they advance. James Madison is on a ridiculous 13 game winning streak but haven't played much elite competition. After defeating Michigan State in the season opener, the Dukes won't be phased by this moment.
Is this the year that Nebraska finally wins their first tournament game (0-8)? It certainly won't be a walk in the park with a hot A&M as their opponent. Nebraska's Keisei Tominaga screams tournament hero and I can't explain why. He'll need to have a spectacular game against the Aggies who have seemingly turned a corner, scoring 80+ in the last four games. I expect nothing but a masterclass of elite basketball. First to 85 points wins.
The 11 seed is FAVORED in this one and rightfully so. While I've been high on the Tigers for the majority of the season, the Lobos are en fuego right now while Clemson has lost 3 of their last 4 games, dropping games to lowly Notre Dame and blown out by Boston College. Clemson has potential to be scary, picking up some impressive wins against South Carolina, North Carolina, and Alabama this year. I wouldn't necessarily write them off. P.J. Hall and Joseph Girard III need to both play well for the Tigers to advance. New Mexico, fresh off a Mountain West Tournament championship, has consistent, high-end scoring talent as their top four players average at least 12.5 PPG. This one's gonna be fun.
Our annual mid-major box office game. The Gaels sport one of the best defenses in the nation, winning the West Coast Conference from the usual suspect Gonzaga. Meanwhile, the Lopes ability to get to the free throw line and play solid defense will keep them in this one. GCU has already beaten one elite defensive team in San Diego State, perhaps they can do it again and win their first tournament game?
Bracket Analysis
West Region
My Final Four Pick: #1 North Carolina Tar Heels (27-7)- A traditional blue-blood program is primed for a deep run in March. Led by senior guard R.J. Davis, the Tar Heels look to avenge last season's disaster of missing the NCAA Tournament. North Carolina is a well-balanced team, ranking in the top-10 in rebounds per game, with a top 25 offense and defense. Senior Armando Bacot is a menace in the paint and junior Harrison Ingram is a multi-level scorer that has made significant improvements since transferring from Stanford. The last time the Final Four was in Phoenix, the Tar Heels cut down the nets. Will they do it again and give Hubert Davis his first title as head coach?
Biggest Threat to #1: #2 Arizona Wildcats (25-8)- Although North Carolina is the #1 seed, Arizona is actually the betting favorite in Vegas to reach the Final Four. The Los Angeles regional may give the Wildcats a home-court advantage if they can advance. All-American guard Caleb Love will be licking his chops to get a piece of his former team and send them packing back to Chapel Hill. If the bracket holds steady, we could see absolute cinema in what could be a Hollywood ending. The last time Love was in the NCAA Tournament, we all know what happened. "Love, top of the keyyyyy. OHHHH!" A dagger in the 2022 semifinals to end Coach K's historic career. Maybe he has another trick up his sleeve.
Biggest Cinderella Potential: #12 Grand Canyon Antelopes (29-4)- Two seasons ago, GCU star Tyon Grant-Foster suffered cardiac arrest during halftime of a game, putting his life in jeopardy. Now, he's the leading scorer on Grand Canyon as they aim to win their first tournament game since transitioning to Division I sports in 2013. Did I mention their coach Bryce Drew is legendary Baylor coach Scott Drew's brother? Their path isn't easy as they play an elite defensive team in St. Mary's and in all likelihood a dynamic offensive team in Alabama if they get to the Round of 32. I could see a run to the Sweet Sixteen with a rabid fanbase behind them.
Most overrated: #4 Alabama Crimson Tide (21-11)- Against big teams, they simply falter. Yes, they've had a tough schedule (ranked #3 in the nation in SOS) but with eleven losses for a team scoring 90 points per game...something is off. It means they're beating up big time on the bad teams and can't defend the good ones. They're just 4-10 in Quad 1 games which is alarming for a top four seed. They shoot an insane amount of three pointers which isn't always the best formula for success. The Crimson Tide won't get upset against #13 seeded Charleston most likely but when they run into a quality opponent, they will likely crumble. Don't expect them to get past the Sweet Sixteen.
Biggest scare: #15 Long Beach State Beach (21-14) vs #2 Arizona Wildcats (25-8)- One of the coolest stories in college basketball resides in Long Beach, CA. Coach Dan Monson lost his job a week ago but was allowed to finish the rest of the season in the Big West Tournament. In a major stunner, the Beach won their conference tournament and now get a chance to knock off a team that just lost to a #15 seed (Princeton) last year. Arizona is nearly a 21 point favorite which seems astronomically high. I think the Wildcats are too talented to lose but I'll say Long Beach covers the spread and is within striking distance for the majority of the game.
Bold Prediction: #11 New Mexico Lobos make the Sweet Sixteen
The Mountain West saw six teams get into the Big Dance in 2024 and I bet there's one that will rise to the occasion and make a run. I'm riding with New Mexico to make some noise. They'll get past a struggling Clemson team before taking on Baylor. No team has been challenged more than the Bears (#1 in strength-of-schedule) so this is a very bold pick. Baylor has two key stand-outs. Future top-five NBA pick Ja'Kobe Walter and center Yves Missi have Elite Eight/Final Four potential but the issue is they've struggled with consistency, as is the case with freshman. The Lobos top two scorers are seniors, led by Jaelen House. Veteran guard play typically wins in clutch moments so I'm willing to bet that'll be the difference.
East Region
My Final Four Pick: #4 Auburn Tigers (27-7)- Go big or go home! When most people zig, I'm gonna zag. I've been on Auburn since the beginning of the year and I'm not backing down. The Tigers have nine or ten guys in their rotation that help keep them fresh and their offense and defense at peak performance. Leading scorer Johni Broome is a very efficient scorer that paves the way for for his teammates to thrive. Denver Jones, Chad Baker-Mazara, and Jaylin Williams have each shown they can consistently score 15-20 points depending on the opponent. Unlike most SEC teams in '23-'24, Auburn plays phenomenal defense. They've only allowed teams to score more than 80 points in THREE games this year (Baylor, Florida, Tennessee). Auburn as a SEC Champion and rewarded with just a four-seed feels under-seeded to me. I think they'll prove their worth soon enough in a big way.
Why not #1 UConn? - I know what you're thinking. He's a madman. You better believe it. Can the defending champs go back-to-back for the first time since Florida did it in 2006 and 2007? I'm going to bet the odds and say no. As the number one overall seed, the Huskies got arguably the toughest draw of all the one seeds, getting a defensive powerhouse Iowa State, the electric Illinois Fighting Illini, and my Final Four pick Auburn Tigers who rank in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency, in their region. I'd be willing to bet that in a gauntlet that is the NCAA Tournament, one of these other top squads wears them down enough to stun the nation.
Biggest Cinderella Potential: #10 Drake Bulldogs (28-6)- We were all hoping that Indiana State made the Big Dance but don't worry, another Missouri Valley team is here to steal the show. The Bulldogs have won 10 of their last 11 games and look motivated to do some damage. Tucker DeVries is a name to know sooner rather than later. It would be insulting to call him a poor man's Dalton Knecht because he's just as good. DeVries can take over a game and be a true X-Factor, having scored over 30 points four times this year. I'd be very confident in picking Drake, who is actually a slight favorite as a #10 seed, to make some noise this March.
Most overrated: #8 Florida Atlantic Owls (25-8)- Last season, the #9 seeded Owls made just their second-ever NCAA Tournament appearance, reaching the Final Four for the first time in program history. Since the move from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference in 2023, FAU hasn't quite lived up to the hype. Sure, they've beaten Arizona in double-overtime back in December but they also have some shocking losses to FGCU, Charlotte, and UAB. They topped it off with their worst loss yet, losing to #11 seeded Temple in the American Semifinals just a few days ago. This team likely won't go far if they even win a game at all.
Biggest scare: #12 UAB Blazers (23-11) vs #5 San Diego State Aztecs (24-9)- I don't have a true scare but instead I have an upset that isn't a popular pick. The Blazers' offense is rolling, scoring 85 or more points in three of their last five games. While the Aztecs defense is strong, I believe UAB can make them pay due to their elite metrics of getting to the free throw line and being able to knock down the freebees. The Blazers rank 12th in the nation in free throw attempts per game and 11th in free throws made. UAB can grit this out or win in a high-scoring affair. Last year's National Champion runner-up will be OUT in the Round of 64.
Bold Prediction: #4 Auburn takes down the defending champs in the Sweet Sixteen; #10 Drake makes the Sweet Sixteen.
I've already addressed the UConn upset pick but how about another surprise? As I already alluded to, I think Drake is going to be special. They will have home-court advantage for game one, playing in Omaha, NE which is just two hours away from Des Moines, IA. They'll take down #7 Washington State in a late-night game and follow it up by stunning an in-state foe in the red-hot #2 Iowa State Cyclones. The last time the Bulldogs made the Sweet Sixteen? 1971. I'm going to be bold and take Drake to be this year's Cinderella story. In a region where chalk is expected, it'll be anything but.
South Region
My Final Four Pick: #1 Houston Cougars (30-4)- After their embarrassing loss in the Big 12 tournament final, it seems as if everyone is off on Houston. Did everyone forget about the other 33 games they played this year? I'm not abandoning ship like a casual would.
Some were skeptical of if Houston's transition from the American to the Big 12 would work out but it has in a big way. Led by All-American guard Jamal Shead and Big 12 Coach of the Year Kelvin Sampson, the Cougars showcase a mix of opportunistic offense and tenacious defense that would make any potential opponent shudder in fear. The Cougars are a shoo-in for at least the Sweet Sixteen, having an appearance in the second weekend for four years straight. While their offense isn't particularly explosive, they're fundamentally sound and rarely turn the ball over (tied for 4th in the nation in least amount of turnovers [8.7]). It won't always look pretty as fans would like to see but UH will grit their way back to the Final Four.
Biggest Threat to #1: #3 Kentucky Wildcats (23-9)- At their best, John Calipari's squad can reach a Final Four. With a jaw-dropping dynamic offense, it's nearly impossible to slow down Big Blue Nation. The major issue for the Wildcats? They can't defend...AT ALL. Kentucky might score 95 but give up 100, as they've already done several times this season. If they matchup against an elite defensive team like Houston, their offense will be neutralized. In the tournament, offense doesn't always show up due to nerves or unfamiliar situations...but great defense does. That's why I think UK has an astronomically high ceiling but one of the lowest floors in the region.
Biggest Cinderella Potential: #12 James Madison Dukes (31-3)- All they do is win. The 31-win Dukes are going dancing for the first time since 2013. JMU's massive upset over preseason title favorite Michigan State set the tone for the rest of the season. The state of Virginia has a history of mid-majors stepping up to the occasion. George Mason. Richmond. VCU. Norfolk State. I believe the Dukes could be in for an upset win...or two.
Most overrated: #4 Duke Blue Devils (24-8)- Calling Duke overrated is a bit harsh but I have seen a couple of warning signs that could get them bounced early. There is just something off with this Duke team and I think it starts with effort and intensity. On the flip side, I could also see freshman guard Jared McCain going nuclear for a few games as he often has this year and Duke makes a run into the second weekend. Which Blue Devils team will show up? Who really knows?
Biggest scare: #11 NC State Wolfpack (22-14) vs #6 Texas Tech Red Raiders (23-10)- You just gotta love the big guy. D.J. Burns is one of the more lovable players in March this year. Unfortunately, I believe NC State used up all their emotional energy just to get to the tournament, becoming the first ACC team to win five games in five days. The fight will be there but the luck will soon run out. Texas Tech does so many things right, leaving State with a small margin of error. Darrion Williams, Chance McMillian and Kerwin Walton all shoot the lights out from three-point land, all avg. ~40% or better. Their top four scorers also shoot at least 83% from the charity stripe. It's going to be a real challenge to slow them down.
"Pace-of-play" can often times be a predictor of a blockbuster upset. The #15 seeded Hilltoppers play FAST...really FAST. Among teams in the tournament, WKU is number one in team possessions per game. Expect this game to be in the mid-80s points wise for both teams. The Golden Eagles star guard Tyler Kolek will be back for this matchup but I highly doubt he'll be 100%. If Marquette has an off-day shooting the ball, their first round game could be their last. And let's not talk about coach Shaka Smart's recent tournament history. That's right, I have THREE #2 seeds failing to advance past the first weekend.
Midwest Region
My Final Four Pick: #1 Purdue Boilermakers (29-4)- I really don't want to do this...ok I'm going to do it. After unfathomably losing to the #16 seeded Fairleigh Dickinson Knights, I can't blame you if you can't trust 'em anymore. However, the Boilermakers should be more focused than ever to finally get over the hump. Led by last season's National Player of the Year Zach Edey, the Boilermakers have the talent to win a National Championship. Their guard play is elite as Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Lance Jones provide consistent scoring night in and night out. I see plenty of similarities to 2019 Virginia after their loss to a 16 seed. When everyone has written them off, they'll respond in a big way by winning the Midwest region.
Biggest Threat to #1: #3 Creighton Bluejays (26-7)- After making an Elite Eight run last year, the Bluejays have the talent to reach their first Final Four if they play their cards right. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Baylor Scheierman, and Trey Alexander can outshoot just about anyone in the country. The only issue for the Bluejays moving forward is their subpar bench. Their top guys can shoot the lights out but their backups are very questionable. If the starters get into early foul trouble, it could provide the fuel for them to be bounced earlier than expected. This is a really soft region in comparison to say the East Region of the bracket so outside of #2 seeded Tennessee, I really wouldn't be scared of anyone not named Purdue.
Biggest Cinderella Potential: #5 Gonzaga Bulldogs (25-7)- Fun fact: the Bulldogs have made EIGHT consecutive appearances in the Sweet Sixteen. The Final Four fiber is alive and well in this club and very rarely do they fold early. A team that was on the bubble for a large majority of the season is primed for a run in the tournament...if they can get past a tough McNeese squad. Despite losing their tournament final to Saint Mary's, the Zags have been looking wonderful in the last month, including an impressive win over a hot Kentucky team. With Kansas not playing well and Purdue's recent tendency to get upset early, a pathway could emerge for the Zags to take advantage.
Most overrated: #4 Kansas Jayhawks (22-10)- Early season Kansas and the current version of Kansas are too COMPLETELY different teams. The Jayhawks have been blown out in their last two games and have really struggled without Kevin McCullar (knee) looking 100%. Their other star, Hunter Dickinson (shoulder), has been banged up and may struggle to be effective in the Big Dance. Anyone that has paid attention to the last couple of weeks knows the Jayhawks are an upset waiting to happen. I wouldn't recommend picking them getting farther than the Sweet Sixteen this year.
Biggest scare: #6 South Carolina Gamecocks (26-7) vs #7 Oregon Ducks (23-11)- The Ducks are trending to be a more popular upset pick but I can't overlook the Gamecocks who keep finding ways to win in the clutch. With just seven losses on the year, they've flown under the radar a bit as a ranked team for a majority of 2024. You might be rolling with the Ducks but I won't be. South Carolina wins and surprisingly, it won't be that close.
Bold Prediction: Max Abmas, seventh-seeded Texas upset #2 Tennessee in the Round of 32-
While Tennessee has arguably the most lethal shooter in the country in Dalton Knecht, the Longhorns have an elite shooter of their own. Remember #15 Oral Roberts stunning run to the Sweet Sixteen from a few seasons ago when they took down Ohio State and Florida? We saw in the SEC Quarterfinals last week what could happen to the Vols if Knecht is off his game. Abmas steals the show again as he'll add upsetting another #2 seed to his impressive resume.
Final Four Predictions
Among my four Final Four picks, you'll see a theme.
Purdue- Lost to a #16 seed in last year's tournament, no one trusts them anymore
Houston- Blown out in Big 12 Tournament final to Iowa State, immediately written off
North Carolina- Lost in 2022 National Championship game; missed tournament last season
Auburn- No one believes #1 UConn can be stopped, under-seeded team
It's all about redemption and motivation!
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels vs #4 Auburn Tigers- Strength on strength. Both teams are well-balanced, have won against elite competition, and have a chip on their shoulder. North Carolina must utilize their bench in order to match Auburn's intensity. Seth Trimble is a backup defensive specialist for UNC and likely need to play 20+ solid minutes in this one to guard the likes of Denver Jones, Tre Donaldson, and Chad Baker-Mazara. I could see this one going either way. The difference for me is the threat that is First-Team All-American senior guard R.J. Davis, who is a top-ten difference maker in the country right now. He's an elite three-point shooter plus a technician at the line. Heels nip Tigers and advance to Monday night. North Carolina 74, Auburn 70
#1 Houston Cougars vs #1 Purdue Boilermakers- I'm really torn on who to pick here. My gut feeling is it's Purdue's year but on the other hand, I've been backing Houston for the last two months now and I'm not stopping now. I trust the Boilermakers to make a deep run but can they win six-straight against elite competition? I'm not fully convinced. The Cougars will have their hands full with Zach Edey but they'll do enough to disrupt his rhythm. In a coin-flip game, gimme UH to advance to the title game. Houston 69, Purdue 68
National Championship Prediction:
It all comes down to this! Cougars and Tar Heels in the title game. Houston will be playing for their first National Championship and North Carolina will be playing for their seventh title.
Does UNC have an answer for the likes Jamal Shead and L.J. Cryer? The Cougars aren't going to outshoot you, they are going to wear you down and force you to self-implode. A game will be close and you might think, "Is Houston going to lose," then three minutes later, the Cougars go on a 10-0 run, two fast-break dunks later, and put the game on ice.
What scares me is North Carolina freshman guard Elliot Cadeau. He can be a dynamic scorer at the rim but he often gets into foul trouble and also has a tendency to turn the ball over. Against the best defense in college basketball, that is not a recipe for success. Shead and Cryer have been there before and won't make a catastrophic mistake. It'll be a very physical game with the box score showcasing some "not-so-lovely" field goal percentages. Defense wins championships and in Houston's case, it'll result in their first national championship.
Houston 73, North Carolina 67
National Champion: Houston Cougars (1st title)
Upset Picks
Upset "Spice" Meter: Mild, Spicy, Red Hot, or Ghost Chili Pepper Hot
Round of 64
Round of 32
Sweet Sixteen
Elite Eight
Bracket Advice
The March Madness trends cannot be overlooked. Here are five tips to help you potentially win your bracket pool and impress your friends.
#1. Curse of the Defending Champion?
Is UConn on upset alert? While there are no signs of Dan Hurley's Huskies slowing down, recent history says they're in for a massive shock in the Round of 32. The last defending champ to make it to the Sweet Sixteen is Duke in 2016. That is six straight years of futility. Can Florida Atlantic or Northwestern bust everyone's bracket and keep this streak alive?
#2. Conference Tournament Champs = early exit in March?
Momentum isn't always a good thing...In the last three tournaments among "Power Six" teams, only FOUR teams have made it past the Sweet Sixteen that won their conference tournament. Those teams were 2022 Kansas (national champs), 2022 Villanova (Final Four), 2023 Texas (Elite Eight), and 2021 Oregon State (Elite Eight). Do the math. 4 out of 18 winners (22.2%).
If I haven't convinced you already, there have actually been more conference tournament champs LOSING in the Round of 64 (5/18). Conference tournament champs have to play more games and have less prep time to focus on fixing their remaining flaws before the NCAA Tournament begins. That could play a role in this strange phenomenon. The bottom line is that National Champions typically don't win their conference tourney unless they're historically dominant. That's just the facts.
A whopping TWENTY-ONE teams that won their regular season title this year were eliminated from their conference tournament this year. Houston got blown out in their conference final. Purdue lost in overtime in the semis. North Carolina lost their final to a hot NC State team. Are all of those teams frauds? Of course not. Playing 3-5 games in 3-5 days is difficult for most teams to withstand. Pay attention to a team's FULL body of work, not just a three day flash-in-a-pan tournament performance. If you overreact to a small sample size, you will likely regret it.
#3. 11-seeded magic.
There has been at least one "6 vs 11" upset per year in the last decade. Several of these 11 seeds come from the "First Four" play-in game. Those teams are often lethal because they get the opportunity to shake off the nerves from just squeaking into the field and should have confidence going into the next round. Many of the 6 seeds are over-seeded and have been in a holding pattern for a while. The 6 seeds playing "First Four" teams have less time to prepare than other teams, leaving them vulnerable. The tourney has also seen five #11 seeds sprint their way into the Final Four. Use that info to your advantage.
#4. Double-digit bracket busters
Since 2008, at least one double-digit seed has made the Sweet Sixteen. While a #16 seed has never made it the second weekend, choosing one 10-15 seed to be this year's Cinderella is a pretty safe bet. Choose wisely!
#5. Have fun with your bracket.
I can give you predictions and pages of advanced metrics but it's called "March Madness" for a reason. There is simply no logic to many of the upsets. The champion typically ends up being a familiar face but everything in-between is anyone's guess. Florida Atlantic, Wichita State, VCU. All teams out of nowhere to make a serious run to the Final Four. When you pick your bracket, trust your gut and pick the upset. You might just end up being right. Yes, even a 16 seed can compete these days...One last thing: you AREN'T getting a perfect bracket!
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