Youth Movement | 2022 UNC Football Season Preview
- Christian Clark
- Aug 23, 2022
- 12 min read
Intro
So much for being a "football school." While the success of North Carolina's basketball team will hold Carolina sports fans over for a while, the football team has some serious work to do in order to earn back the trust of those that support the program. The 2021 version of UNC football is the exact reason why it's hard to project something into the stratosphere that hasn't happened before. Some people had the Heels as a trendy pick to sneak into the College Football Playoff. As we know, that clearly didn't happen.
Following a breakout season for Mack Brown's Tar Heels in year two of the program's rebuild (Orange Bowl appearance), the Heels plummeted to a 6-7 record included blowout losses to mid-tier teams like Florida State, Georgia Tech, and South Carolina. With all the "shine" off, the Tar Heels hope to thrive when the lights are off and get back to where many thought they would be: atop the ACC. Can they cause some chaos and run the coastal or will it be just another season of disappointment in Chapel Hill? It's time to find out.
Roster Analysis
OFFENSE
Familiar backups in previous years will now be thrust into the spotlight for a major role and a golden opportunity to make their name known. Under offensive coordinator Phil Longo's watch, UNC has had a top-tier offense and averaged over 30 points per game. They've dazzled through the air with Sam Howell tossing touchdowns to Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome --- and on the ground with the likes of Javonte Williams, Michael Carter, and Ty Chandler. All those names have all went pro meaning that there could be some early growing pains as the team gets younger and less experienced. However, there is still plenty of talent to produce at an extremely high level sooner rather than later. Let's start with football's most important position...
Quarterback- Drake Maye or Jacolby Criswell? For the first time since 2019, there was a true question mark at the quarterback position. Although both players are talented, they've not had extended time against quality opponents on the field due to Sam Howell's dominance over the past three seasons. After a heated battle in training camp, the coaching staff has decided that redshirt freshman Drake Maye will get the green light first and begin this new era of Carolina quarterbacks. Coach Brown mentioned in his Week Zero press conference that both quarterbacks will get playing time early in the season, meaning that Criswell could come in and make an impact. The third quarterback on the roster, freshman Conner Harrell, has great potential and could potentially start at some point in a future season with more development under his belt.
Running Back- A true position of strength in the Mack Brown 2.0 era has been the plethora of running backs. Javonte Williams (Broncos), Michael Carter (Jets), and Ty Chandler (Vikings) have all rushed for over 1,000 yards as a Tar Heel and are in position to have successful careers in the NFL. In 2022, British Brooks was slated to become the starter for UNC but tore his ACL on August 13th, leaving question marks at the position. The grad senior and former walk-on has been the special teams leader for North Carolina but never got significant minutes at his true position.
The only other back on the roster with significant minutes is D.J. Jones who will serve as the de-facto starting running back...if he can stay healthy. He's shown some flashes but hasn't had a large enough sample size to truly project what he can become. That being said, a dynamic pair of freshman backs may be leading the show early and often. George Pettaway and Omarion Hampton have drawn comparisons to the Williams-Carter duo of two seasons ago in practice. It's only a matter of time before they get their chance and it could come in the season opener. Redshirt sophomore Elijah Green and true sophomore Caleb Hood will be the backups. This position group's final verdict is a group chalk full of uncertainty but also full of immense potential as well.
Wide Receiver/Tight End- Receiver isn't necessarily a deep group this season as the team saw Khafre Brown and Beau Corrales transfer in the offseason. That doesn't mean there isn't talent to get the job done. Josh Downs steps into 2022 as a projected first-round draft pick and one of the best receivers in college football. After breaking out in the 2021 Orange Bowl with two touchdowns. Downs continued the momentum with 101 catches for over 1300 yards and eight touchdowns last season. Expect him to continue his ascent to greatness.
On the other side, Antoine Green was supposed to be the clear number two wide receiver. While Downs is a speedster and can easily get separation, Green is a possession receiver as he can snatch the ball with his wide wingspan. However, the super senior has dealt with injuries his entire career and suffered yet another injury (collarbone break) on August 6th which will hold him out 6-10 weeks. Who will be the number two while Green recovers? How about another Green(e)? Freshman Andre Greene Jr. has impressed in practice will likely be thrust into action early. On opening night, sophomores Gavin Blackwell and J.J. Jones will start alongside Downs. Also in the rotation will be junior Justin Olson and redshirt freshman Kobe Paysour.
At tight end, three guys will take the bulk of the snaps, each with unique skill sets. Kamari Morales, Bryson Nesbit, and John Copenhaver. Look for Nesbit to become the breakout star of the Tar Heel offense in 2022. He fits the modern mold of a receiving tight end in the NFL and with the lack of receiver depth on this Tar Heel squad, could be a top target on this team.
Offensive Line- It's no secret. The offensive line performance wasn't good last year. O-line coach Stacy Searels is gone meaning that a new voice will be heard in Jack Bicknell Jr. The biggest name to join the line is five-star tackle Zach Rice who will certainly get playing time this year but will start as a backup. Transfers Corey Gaynor and Spencer Rolland will take over at center and right tackle respectively. Meanwhile, Asim Richards (left tackle), William Barnes (right guard) and Ed Montilus (left guard) will round out the rest of the offensive line. Graduate senior Brian Anderson (center) will serve as a key backup.
DEFENSE
There's a decent chance that the defense could actually be better than the offense for North Carolina in 2022. In fact, they might need to carry the team while the offense gets calibrated in the first month of the season. During many instances under Jay Bateman, the defense looked flat-out confused. Enter Gene Chizik, a national champion at Auburn in 2010 and a proven commodity in college football. This is actually his second stint in Chapel Hill, the first stint turning a terrible D into a respectable one. Now, Chizik hopes to simplify the defense and let his athletes fly around the field. This is the most defensive talent that Mack Brown has had since returning so now it's up to Chizik to help these athletes realize their potential and excel on the field.
Defensive Line- The Tar Heels' D-line could be the most lethal out of all the position groups in 2022. Myles Murphy (junior), Raymond Vohasek (grad senior), and Travis Shaw (2022 five-star recruit) have potential to be the best defensive tackle trio in the league. Jahvaree Ritzie will mix in as well after a great training camp. At defensive end, fans are hoping see guys like Desmond Evans and Kaimon Rucker break out in a new system. Noah Taylor, a graduate transfer from Virginia, might out-perform all of them as he'll take over at Chizik's new "jack" position on defense.
Linebacker- Jeremiah Gemmel is gone, meaning that the linebacker position is in the hands of sophomore Cedric Gray. Against Miami, Gray stepped onto the scene in a major way, snagging two interceptions including the game-winner with under 20 seconds to play. Despite not starting the first two games, he still finished the season with 100 tackles which is extremely impressive. On the other side, sophomore Power Echols has looked dominant in practice and will suit up alongside Gray to sport a very solid linebacking core. RaRa Dillworth and Sebastian Cheeks will get some rotational minutes as well as they continue to grow into their own.
Secondary- The cornerback position should be set barring injuries. Tony Grimes had an impressive freshman season but regressed last year. He'll be looking to bounce back in 2022. Fan favorite Storm Duck finally returned after a long hiatus and the secondary saw a major improvement. Duck was a key catalyst in North Carolina's upset over #9 Wake Forest. However, Dontae Balfour will start since Duck has missed some practice. In the slot aka the new "star" position, Ja'Qurious Conley will start when fully healthy although that might not be until a few games into the season. Holding his spot down will be DeAndre Boykins and Ohio State transfer Lejond Cavazos. The safety position should see Cam'Ron Kelly and Giovanni Biggers hold down their spots.
Special Teams- Jonathan Kim will supplant mainstay Grayson Atkins (graduated) to be the starting kicker for the team and Ben Kiernan will retain his spot as the starting punter. Finally, long snapper Drew Little will do his thing.
Game-by-Game Predictions
Florida A&M- It's your typical FBS-FCS Week 0 matchup. Anything is possible in the first week of the season but this is a game where the result shouldn't be in question. Last year, the Heels had a tough game, traveling on the road to a hostile Lane Stadium against Virginia Tech in the season opener. It would be a major stunner if the Tar Heels don't win BIG despite new starters on offense. North Carolina 41, Florida A&M 10 (1-0)
@ Appalachian State- Don't be fooled. This will be a VERY competitive contest. The last time these teams faced off, the Mountaineers came into Chapel Hill and handed the Heels a fat L. Can UNC return the favor? I'd be a little nervous about this one. Despite recent struggles on the road, I project that the run game will be the story as the quarterbacking situation will still be calibrating. The freshman running backs break out, scoring all three touchdowns and will the team to victory and cement their starting spots in the process. It won't be pretty but a win's a win. North Carolina 21, App State 17 (2-0)
@ Georgia State- After a scare against App State, the Heels get a back-to-back road game against another Sun Belt foe in the Georgia State Panthers. This is the first time a Power Five school has traveled to play the Panthers so it'll be a big deal in Atlanta. That being said, this is another matchup where UNC should have little trouble getting off the ground. Similar to last year's blowout, the Heels run away from Georgia State with relative ease. North Carolina 45, Georgia State 13 (3-0)
Notre Dame- This will likely be North Carolina's toughest game of the year. Can this Carolina team get a signature win and put the Heels back on the College Football map? The only perk is having the game in Chapel Hill where I could see the game being closer than expected. The Fighting Irish have a tough week one contest against Ohio State but should be able to defeat Marshall and Cal to stand at least 2-1 coming into September 24th. UNC will have their bye week before this and should come into the contest healthy and motivated. However, new head coach Marcus Freeman should have his team ready to play and hand the Tar Heels their first loss of the season. The Heels score a late touchdown to make the score closer than the game really was. Notre Dame 28, North Carolina 23 (3-1)
Virginia Tech- Circle the calendar for this one. We all know what happened in Blacksburg last season. An embarrassing loss to destroy the hype of the Tar Heels' expected rise. If the last four seasons of VT-UNC games are any indication, the Hokies and Heels will be in another dogfight. Don't be surprised if this game is ultra defensive, similar to last year's matchup. In a tight contest, I'll take Mack Brown at home over new Hokies' coach Brent Pry going through a transitional phase of their program. With the win, UNC moves into the Top 25 for the first time this season. North Carolina 24, Virginia Tech 21 (4-1)
@ Miami- North Carolina has owned Miami for the last three seasons. However, I expect the tides to turn a bit this year. Tyler Van Dyke comes into the season as one of the ACC's best quarterbacks. In addition, I'd say if everything goes their way, Miami could win the ACC and make a New Year's Six game. After torching the Heels in Chapel Hill, the offensive onslaught will continue but this time, Carolina will be unable to keep up on the scoreboard. Miami 38, North Carolina 28 (4-2)
@ Duke- There's not too much that needs to be said about this one. The Blue Devils are woeful once again and with a new coach in Mike Elko, nothing short of a miracle will save Duke in 2022. North Carolina's defense should feast in this contest. North Carolina 31, Duke 14 (5-2)
Pittsburgh- The reigning ACC champions will be coming into Chapel Hill which hasn't happened since narrowly falling to Clemson in the 2019 season. This team should've beaten Pitt last season on the road. Sitting at the one yard line with a chance to take the lead, UNC's offense imploded, forcing the team to settle for a field goal and eventually lose in overtime. Pitt should be pretty good this season but we haven't seen a back-to-back Coastal champion since 2011 with Virginia Tech. Here, I'm projecting a minor upset as the Heels get their biggest win of the season. This will be a win that keeps Carolina firmly in the Coastal Race. Following the biggest win of the season for this squad, the talk will be, "Can UNC make it to the ACC Championship Game?"North Carolina 34, Pittsburgh 31 (6-2)
@ Virginia- I think every Tar Heel fan would sign up for a 6-2 start. Just as fans begin to get cautiously optimistic again, a familiar game script will rear its ugly head again. The hype will be short lived as a stunning, inexplicable blowout will occur in Charlottesville, Virginia. UVA's defense isn't supposed to be great this season but UNC has a tendency to make not-so-great units look elite due to their lack of execution. The offense will fail to produce as Maye has his worst game of the season, committing three turnovers. The same ol' story for the Heels as the new regime's tendency of struggling on the road continue. Virginia 38, North Carolina 21 (6-3)
@ Wake Forest- It's been a similar tale when the Deacs have traveled to Chapel Hill. Race out to a monster lead before blowing it in the fourth quarter. The difference this time will be Wake's offense still excelling whereas the departure of Sam Howell to the NFL will mean the Heels offense might not be able to keep up. Will it be high-scoring? Yes. Will Josh Downs have a field day against the Demon Deacons defense? Probably. Will the Heels win? I'm going to say no. The dwindling Coastal hopes for UNC all but come to an end Winston-Salem. However, my prediction would change to the Heels if Wake quarterback Sam Hartman (out indefinitely with a non-football related medical condition) is not ready to play. Wake Forest 48, North Carolina 42 (6-4)
Georgia Tech- After an embarrassing loss in 2021 to Georgia Tech, the Tar Heels will right the ship and get a W against the Yellow Jackets. Yes, I realize how awful they played but this is a brand new defense and I think the improvement will pay dividends in games like this one. UNC has struggled against mobile quarterbacks like GT's Jeff Sims in the past so perhaps Gene Chizik can help the Heels end their woes. North Carolina 35, Georgia Tech 21 (7-4)
NC State- This game has potential to have MAJOR implications and it's a lot more than just your average in-state rivalry. The Wolfpack are locked and loaded to potentially finish as a top ten team and a contender to win the Atlantic Division this season (seem familiar?). While Carolina isn't the leading contender to win the ACC Coastal, they don't call it "Coastal Chaos" for nothing. Can UNC pull off the upset? Despite the game being played in Chapel Hill, I'm not too sure. UNC's youth vs NC State's experience is the big difference here. It'll be a four quarter fight but knowing what's at stake, the Wolfpack should pull away late on Black Friday. NC State 41, North Carolina 27 (7-5)
Best Case: 9-3 record; make ACC Championship Game
Worst Case: 5-7 record; miss bowl game
PREDICTION: 7-5 record; make bowl game
Offensive MVP: Josh Downs, receiver
Defensive MVP: Power Echols, linebacker
ACC Standings Predictions
Atlantic Division:
Clemson (10-2)
North Carolina State (10-2)
Wake Forest (8-4)
Louisville (8-4)
Boston College (7-5)
Florida State (6-6)
Syracuse (3-9)
Coastal Division:
Miami (9-3)
Pittsburgh (8-4)
Virginia (7-5)
North Carolina (7-5)
Virginia Tech (6-6)
Georgia Tech (3-9)
Duke (2-10)
ACC Champion: Clemson Tigers
Final Thoughts
For the Tar Heels to consider this a successful season, I would pinpoint three things. Number one: improve the defense. Under former defensive coordinator Jay Bateman, Carolina regressed, forcing the offense to carry the team. Number two, find a way to win on the road. I've already mentioned it several times in this article but North Carolina hasn't shown up away from Kenan Memorial Stadium. 2020 against Florida State. 2021 against Georgia Tech. Will the story continue in 2022? Finally, the Tar Heels must not buy into their own hype when success comes. It's possible that being out of the spotlight will help the Heels do better than expected. That being said, there are many high recruits that have a lot placed on their shoulders to perform. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter if you are a "one-star" or "five-star" recruit. The only thing that matters is the performance on the field. Can highly-sought recruits like Travis Shaw, Zach Rice, and Sebastian Cheeks change the program's future? Time will tell.
Another 6-7 season is not acceptable this season and a repeat of 2021 could make many question Mack Brown's future. Going 10-2 or 11-1 isn't that realistic either but if the Tar Heels exceed expectations and say, make a New Years Six game or stay in the Top 25 for the majority of the season, the hype will begin again. Undoubtably, fans will obviously be cautious to buy into the next time. I think 2022 will see the be similar to the 2019 season where growing pains of a young roster can be seen but the "underdog" and grit mentality should return after being viewed as an entitled, soft team in 2021's collapse. Despite much roster uncertainty for North Carolina in 2022, I believe vast improvement in the philosophy of all three phases will be evident and help give this team new life headed into 2023 where a real ACC Championship title run can begin.
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