Intro:
(WACO, TX- September 3rd, 2023)- They say "money is the root of all evil." That statement might be a little overkill for what is going in with college athletics but you get the point. There's no secret that the catalyst for change begins and ends with how much money can each university make. For college sports, that begins and ends with College Football. If you have a great football program, you'll have value. If you don't, there's a risk of being left behind.
2024 will be the beginning of a brand-new era. The recent emergence of NIL has allowed "student-athletes" to profit on their name, image, and likeness without the schools getting directly getting involved and paying athlete individually. We've always known that money was being distributed behind the scenes to athletes but now...it's legal.
Television contracts between the "Power Four" conferences with ESPN, FOX, and NBC have changed the priorities for athletics as well. Can you make $10 million more a year to go to another conference? Bye-bye birdie.
The uniqueness that made college sports special is now gone. When conferences are randomly spread out across the nation, it affects several things. The geographic rivalries are slowly dissipating. If you're a UCLA fan in the new Big Ten, are you going to take a road trip with your friends to Rutgers in New Jersey? If you're a parent of a gymnast, can you go watch your child on a consistent basis anymore? How about the Stanford student that now has to spend weeks at a time on the East Coast and away from their friends? But, but more money...
As you can tell, I'm not a fan of conference realignment. Do I understand why? Yes. Do I like it? Absolutely not. With all that said, let's dive into the recent changes and what is on the horizon for the Power Five...I mean four conferences.
The Conferences:
SEC:
New for 2024: Texas and Oklahoma
OUT: None
The SEC isn't going anywhere. As the premiere football conference in the country, they'll be on the strongest position financially for decades to come. Out of all the conferences, this is the only one where the geography still makes sense. Teams like Vanderbilt should be thanking the heavens that they have a seat at the table. The spots will be limited for future expansion and the conference will likely look at a few ACC teams to potentially fill out a 20 team mega-conference.
There's a very strong chance that Clemson will become an SEC team by the end of the decade. With an elite football program, solid men's basketball, and a geographical fit, they're a no-brainer. Florida State likely wants the SEC but does the SEC want them? A team like Virginia or North Carolina could be a candidate to move as well.
Big 10:
New for 2024: UCLA, USC, Oregon, Washington
OUT: None
This is where expansion started to get ridiculous. Four west coast teams for a predominately midwest oriented conference? Props to the Big Ten for being proactive and nabbing the biggest brands they could. Logistically, it doesn't make much sense though.
In football, Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State have been elite for the last few seasons. In men's basketball, the Big Ten consistently gets a large number of teams but has failed to deliver in the key moments (yes, we're talking about you Purdue).
Academically, they have strengthened their already elite universities by adding UCLA and USC. That's a plus.
Big 12:
New for 2023: Houston, UCF, Cincinnati, BYU
New for 2024: Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado
OUT: Texas, Oklahoma
A few months ago, the Big 12 seemed to be in some jeopardy after football powerhouses Oklahoma and Texas jettisoned their way to the SEC. Now, they seem to be under some stability. It's an odd combination of teams but in a weird way, I kinda like it. There's not a team that is consistently elite at football in this conference like an Alabama but there has been some recent success stories.
TCU made the National Championship Game last season, Cincinnati made the CFP two seasons ago, Utah made consecutive Rose Bowl games, and UCF went undefeated in 2017. In men's basketball, Kansas won the National Championship in 2022 with the Baylor Bears winning the title in 2021.
ACC:
New for 2024: Stanford, Cal, SMU
OUT: None
There's nothing that screams "Atlantic Coast" like California and Texas, right? On September 1st, 2023, the ACC extended an invitation to California, Stanford, and SMU to become members of the conference. Florida State, Clemson, and North Carolina were the three universities deciding to vote against expansion. It's only a matter of time before they'll leave the ACC for greener pastures, most likely in the Big Ten or SEC.
For the ACC to have an extended stay as a power conference, they'll need to establish a true football powerhouse other than Clemson. UNC? FSU? NC State? Stanford? Miami? Someone's gotta step up and consistently make New Years Six games and perhaps the CFP. The ACC HAS consistently delivered in men's basketball with Duke, Virginia, and North Carolina leading the way. Most recently, the Miami Hurricanes made their first Final Four in program history. The metrics aren't always there but this conference always delivers in March.
The message is clear: expand or die. The PAC-12 learned the hard way and the ACC didn't want to be next. Speaking of the PAC-12...
PAC-12:
New for 2024: RIP PAC-12
OUT: Everyone
The "Conference of Champions" is no more...well almost. Oregon State and Washington State are the odd men out in the expansion chaos. They'll likely join the Mountain West Conference but that's hardly what folks in Pullman or Corvallis could've ever envisioned. There's a small chance that the Mountain West and Pac-12 merge for name brand purposes but who knows at this point?
College Football Playoff and Bowl Games:
The New Year's Six (NY6), the six biggest bowl games played during New Year's [Peach, Rose, Cotton, Orange, Fiesta, and Sugar), are now a part of the College Football Playoff starting next season. The playoff has expanded to 12 teams as a result. The format features the Power 4 conference champions, followed by six at-large bids and two highest ranked remaining conference champions. The first round will feature "on-campus" playoff games, adding to the playoff intrigue.
With conference expansion, the bowl games will lose even more meaning. Perhaps the subtraction of bowl games may be a good thing. To not reward mediocrity and only give the "best of the best" a bowl game might force programs to achieve higher standards.
Olympic Sports:
While most of the focus is on college football, there is a real loser in all of this: olympic sports. Specifically the Pacific Coast schools that will have to now travel thousands of miles to play their respective opponents. Some of these programs will die on the vine as the funding will simply not be there. Club sports will take an even bigger hit as students will often times fundraise for in the California schools will also struggle to survive.
Final Thoughts:
College sports will never be the same again. Is that a good thing? I'm not sure. Regardless, it's here and it's real. I honestly think that at some point in my lifetime, we'll realize that this was all a dumb idea and go back to what made college athletics special. The geographic matchups and historical rivalries are unmatched and I hope it doesn't fade away due to chasing the bag.
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