Chapel Bill: 2025 UNC Football Season Predictions
- Christian Clark
- Aug 22
- 18 min read
WACO, TX (August 22nd, 2025)- No, you're not dreaming. This is real life. Bill Belichick — yes, the 8X Super Bowl Champion (6X with the New England Patriots) — is now the head coach of North Carolina football. Did anyone expect Belichick to enter the college ranks? Certainly not me.
Mack Brown, the winningest coach in UNC football history, was let go after six years in his second stint with the program. For many, it felt like time for a shake-up. Despite never missing a bowl game under Brown, the team never quite hit the mark. No 10-win seasons. No ACC titles. No consistent execution.
Even with NFL-level quarterbacks like Sam Howell and Drake Maye, the Tar Heels couldn’t shake off defensive collapses or maximize the potential of their highly-ranked recruits. Sure, there were encouraging flashes such as a 2021 Orange Bowl appearance and multiple top-10 rankings. However, sustained success always seemed out of reach. The pattern? As soon as UNC rocketed to national relevance, they faded just as quickly. Belichick is here to rewrite that script — and make it stick.
His mission is simple: win. At all costs. North Carolina has long been knocked for lacking toughness. But under Belichick, toughness, attention to detail, discipline, and execution won’t be optional. Say what you want about the integrity of Patriots dynasty, his teams showed up mentally sharp and physically strong. Yes, having arguably the greatest quarterback of all time helped, but Belichick’s blueprint has always been about building complete, winning football teams.
With over 50 scholarship players from last year’s roster now gone, there’s a massive opportunity for this new staff to shape the team in their image and change the culture of football in Chapel Hill forever. How will the Heels perform in year one under Belichick's tutelage? Who knows. But for now, let’s dive into this revamped roster and see who’ll be taking the field this fall.
Offense:
Quarterback: It’s a whole new world under center for the Tar Heels. Last season, the quarterback room was a revolving door. Max Johnson went down with a season-ending injury, and Conner Harrell struggled to find his footing. That left the door open for Jacolby Criswell — back in Chapel Hill for his second stint — to step into the spotlight. He wasn’t Drake Maye, but he didn’t need to be. Criswell proved to be a hidden gem who just needed a shot, and his relatively steady play kept UNC bowl-eligible when the season could've easily spiraled the other way.
Looking ahead to 2025, it’s shaping up to be a battle for QB1. First up: Gio Lopez, a dynamic dual-threat transfer from South Alabama. He lit up the Sun Belt, but the big question is whether his game will translate to Power Four football? It’s a slight gamble, but an intriguing one.
Then there’s Bryce Baker. The true freshman and four-star recruit is ranked in the top 75 nationally, and he brings serious upside. Without Belichick on board, it’s fair to wonder if he would’ve stuck with UNC. But being developed by a staff calling themselves the "33rd NFL team?" That kind of pitch is hard to walk away from and probably helped seal the deal.
I project Lopez to get the starting nod, with Baker developing behind him. Max Johnson, who overcame long injury odds to get back to the field, may start the year as the second or third-string — and could very well be one of the most experienced backup QBs in the country. And who knows? If this season turns into another rollercoaster, Johnson might just get his shot again.
Quarterback remains the most important position in football. With so many unknowns on this roster, UNC needs all three ready to play.
Running Back: For a team expected to lean heavily on the run game, North Carolina's backfield has some big shoes to fill with the departure of star RB Omarion Hampton. The pressure’s on and sophomore Davion Gause looks primed for a major workload. He impressed in limited snaps last season, racking up 326 yards and 4 touchdowns on just 67 carries. UNC has built a strong reputation for developing NFL-caliber running backs over the last decade, and Gause might just be next in line.
Redshirt senior Caleb Hood was a favorite under Mack Brown, but injuries have kept him from reaching his potential. The big question now: will Belichick and his staff view him the same way, or will they turn to younger talent like transfer Benjamin Hall, true freshman Demon June (what an awesome name), or redshirt sophomore Charleston French? Hall is seemingly in line to serve as the primary backup as things stand today.
One thing’s for sure — the run game will be a cornerstone, and the battle behind Gause could determine how far this offense goes.
Wide Receiver: I'm going to be completely honest. This may be a very troublesome spot for this team. Just take a look at the current “top” receivers on the roster and their stats from last season:
Kobe Paysour – 21 receptions, 365 yards
Aziah Johnson – 16 receptions, 276 yards, 2 TDs
Jordan Shipp – 9 receptions, 114 yards, 1 TD
Chris Culliver – 6 receptions, 135 yards, 1 TD
Paul Billups – 4 receptions, 27 yards
Javarius Green- 1 reception, 12 yards
Alex Taylor- N/A
Jason Robinson Jr., Adrian Wilson, and Dayton Sneed (transfers from Washington, Colorado, and Tennessee) – 1 reception
Yikes. Not exactly eye-popping numbers. Someone will rise to the occasion — but who that’ll be is anyone’s guess.
Right now, the safe bet is that Jordan Shipp, Aziah Johnson, and Kobe Paysour will lead the charge. Keep an eye on Chris Culliver, though. He flashed real potential late last season with a touchdown catch against NC State and a kickoff return TD in the Fenway Bowl vs. UConn. He’s a gadget-style player who could become a sneaky weapon in this offense.
Paysour is the most polished receiver, but he’s struggled to stay healthy. Definitely not ideal if he’s your WR1. Shipp has all the potential in the world and likely gets the nod as the top 'X' receiver, but that’s based more on recruiting pedigree than on-field production so far. I expect Shipp to emerge as the top receiving threat in '25.
There’s a lot of uncertainty here — but that’s the beauty of sports. Opportunity’s knocking, and someone will need to step up and take the reins. Will this team have a 1,000-yard receiver? Doubtful. This feels like a receiver-by-committee season. But if each guy does their job when called upon, positive contributions can happen for the Tar Heels offense.
Tight Ends: North Carolina had one of the stronger tight end rooms in the country last season with Bryson Nesbit and John Copenhaver — both now heading to the NFL. This year, the depth isn’t as proven, but there’s real potential, especially with redshirt junior Jake Johnson stepping into the spotlight.
Johnson — the younger brother of quarterback Max Johnson — could be in for a bigger role than most expect. He was stuck in a deep rotation last year, but his 2023 season at Texas A&M (24 catches, 235 yards, 4 touchdowns) shows exactly what he’s capable of. With a clean slate and a fresh offensive vision, don’t be surprised if Jake quickly becomes a go-to option in the passing game.
The rest of the group is still developing. Backups Cort Halsey, Deems May, Shamar Easter, and Connor Cox have just 3 career catches between them — but that also means there’s a real opportunity for someone to emerge. A new staff and new system can open doors, and this room may just surprise us.
Offensive Line: The offensive line will have little continuity as just Aidan Banfield (left guard) and Austin Blaske (center) will return for another season in the starting lineup. However, Blaske suffered a training camp foot injury that will cause him to miss the first month of the season. A brutal blow to a unit that has some question marks already.
Treyvon Green (tackle) is also a familiar face but reports from 'Inside Carolina' is that an emerging true freshman, Eidan Buchanan, may get the Week One start at left tackle. That would be a big training camp development but it's also major news for the player development/recruiting front for the Tar Heels. You almost never see true freshman start unless they really are special. Belichick isn't just handing out starting jobs like Halloween candy. You have to EARN your spot day in and day out.
There are a few fresh faces that enter the fold as well. Daniel King (Troy), UNC's highest ranked o-line transfer, will join Christo Kelly (Holy Cross), Miles McVay (Alabama), Will O'Steen (Jacksonville State), Chad Lindberg (Rice/Georgia), Jakai Moore (South Carolina), Jordan Hall (UAB), and William Boone (Prairie View A&M). The battle in the trenches to see who will earn the final spots will be fascinating. I project the final starting line to be Buchanan (LT), Banfield (LG), Blaske (C), King (RG), and Moore (RT) when all healthy.
Defense:
Steve Belichick, who is rumored to be the 'coach in waiting' for the Tar Heels, is the newest defensive coordinator for North Carolina. It's well-documented but UNC has sported a horrendous defense for quite some time now. They've been gashed in the run, they've been harassed in the air. They have cataclysmic coverage breakdowns and have lacked the toughness that is needed to reach the next echelon of CFB teams. Whether it's scheme, coaching, or toughness, adjustments need to be made...and quickly.
At linebacker, this should be North Carolina's strongest defensive position group. Three intriguing transfers will lead the way. Andrew Simpson (Boise State), Khmori House (Washington), and Mikai Gbayor (Nebraska) all are laden with serious breakout potential. North Carolina has produced NFL-caliber linebackers, most recently Cole Holcomb, Cedric Gray, and Chazz Surratt. Perhaps one of these transfers can blossom into UNC's next big star.
UNC's defensive line will feel the loss of emerging star Beau Atkinson, as he transferred this spring to Ohio State. Graduating senior Kaimon Rucker is off to the NFL as well which means some new faces will need to step up. Fans may remember Pryce Yates, as he caused havoc against the Tar Heels in their bowl game. Now, he joins the other side as the senior transfer aims to have another solid season. Delaware junior transfer Melkart Abou-Jaoude (6.5 sacks) will attempt to keep the momentum going at the FBS level. At defensive tackle, C.J. Mims from East Carolina, will be tasked with shutting down the run. The rest of the defensive line talent is a bit of an unknown so there are plenty of opportunities for someone to win a rotational spot on the line.
The prized pickup for North Carolina's secondary is easily Thaddeus Dixon, a cornerback from Washington. He's simply a baller. Dixon, Marcus Allen, and sophomore Kaleb Cost should form a very solid cornerback trio for the Heels. At safety, senior Will Hardy will lead the way. He’s been quietly consistent and makes plays whenever he’s on the field. Expect him to take another step forward this year. East Carolina transfer Gavin Gibson will likely line up next to him at strong safety. Belichick is relying on some small-school gems to make a big-school impact.
Special Teams:
A new placekicker will enter the villa in 2025. Rece Verhoff, a transfer from Marshall, will do his best to improve in his final collegiate season. The 5'11 rising senior hit a career-high seven made FGs from the 40-49 yard range in 2024. As Carolina will likely be in some close defensive games, Verhoff's 2025 performance could be the difference between an extra win or loss on the schedule. Kickers matter and for North Carolina, they'll likely find out for better...or for worse.
At punter, senior Tom Maginness, a product of Melbourne, Australia, will battle with Jacob Horvath (junior transfer from Eastern Illinois) to retain his starting spot. Finally, the kickoff and punt returner position is up for grabs. However, I'd presume receiver Chris Culliver will get the first crack at things. His 95 yard kickoff TD return against UConn in the Fenway Bowl will give him the early edge to show his dynamic vision off once again.
Game-by-Game Predictions
vs TCU- Week 1
There’s definitely some irony — and probably some intention — in the fact that the Bill Belichick era at North Carolina will kick off on Monday Night Football on ESPN. Only this time, it won’t be against the Buffalo Bills or Miami Dolphins. It’ll be against the TCU Horned Frogs of the Big 12.
Texas Christian is coming off a 9–4 season where their passing game was the star of the show. Redshirt junior QB Josh Hoover threw for nearly 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns. If you were hoping to see what UNC’s secondary is made of right out of the gate…well, you certainly got your wish.
If this game turns into a shootout, I don’t like North Carolina’s chances. For the Tar Heels to pull this off, they’ll need to control the tempo. You know the routine: ground-and-pound, chew the clock, etc. On paper, TCU has the edge. But UNC has two key X-factors: home-field advantage and the ‘element of surprise.’ With a completely overhauled roster and a brand-new coaching staff, Belichick might actually have a tactical edge over TCU’s Sonny Dykes.
Let’s not forget, TCU made a national championship appearance just three seasons ago. Both coaching staffs know what the spotlight feels like. North Carolina might not be a football brand nationally, but Belichick changes that. This is their chance to make a major statement to the college football world.
Will the Tar Heels win? There's just too many uncertainties on UNC's team for me to fully believe they'll get the job done despite the game being essentially even in the betting lines. If they win? I can't imagine the hype train that will commence. Maybe they catch TCU off guard. Maybe the chaos works in their favor. Either way, I expect a competitive, gritty showing but the immense volume of change may be too much to overcome in Week One. Texas Christian 27, North Carolina 22 [0-1 record, 0-0 in the ACC]
@ Charlotte- Week 2
The Conner Harrell revenge game? Ehhh..we'll see. The former UNC quarterback could get the starting nod for the Charlotte 49ers as they host the Tar Heels in an early-season matchup in the Queen City. Going on the road to a Group of Five stadium — especially one in the American Athletic — can sometimes get weird. But this one? Nah. Playing in Charlotte is basically a short drive down the road from Chapel Hill, and you can expect the stadium to be packed with Carolina baby blue. It might not be Kenan Memorial, but it’s about as friendly as a “road” game gets.
This is one of the few games that I don't have to think much about. Last year, UNC handled business 38-20 and this year, the result shouldn't be in question this time around either. They'll put the clamps down defensively and put into the books Belichick's first collegiate win as a head coach. North Carolina 49, Charlotte 14 [1-1 record, 0-0 in the ACC]
vs Richmond- Week 3
Another week, another 'should be' easy victory for the Heels. The Spiders have next to no chance to beat this well-coached Tar Heels team. Expect true freshman QB Bryce Baker, the presumed future of the program, to get some minutes in the second-half of this one. North Carolina 52, Richmond 10 [2-1 record, 0-0 in the ACC]
@ UCF- Week 4
This feels like a likely turning point in the young season. Inside the ‘Bounce House,’ the environment is sure to be electric—but UCF struggled to stay competitive last year, finishing 4-8. Running back R.J. Harvey was their lone bright spot, and now he’s off to the Denver Broncos.
I don’t expect this game to be flashy. It’s the kind of matchup where a Belichick-led, fundamentally sound defense will outmuscle and out-execute Scott Frost’s Knights. UCF will almost certainly beat Jacksonville State and North Carolina A&T to enter the game 2-0—but it won’t mean much. This is a big rebuilding year for the Knights, and I expect more of the same we saw in 2024.
The Tar Heels keep the momentum rolling into the bye week with what could be their most impressive win of the year against a Power Four opponent.
North Carolina 30, UCF 16 [3-1 record, 0-0 in the ACC]
Week 5- BYE WEEK
vs Clemson- Week 6
The Tar Heels' ACC season opener is against... checks notes ...CLEMSON. Yep, the defending ACC Champion and College Football Playoff mainstay Tigers. Alrighty then, here we go.
If UNC wants to be respected on the national stage, they’ve got to do two things: beat an elite program and avoid imploding when a lesser team comes through the doors. They’ve got a shot at the former when Dabo Swinney’s Tigers roll into town. If Carolina manages to pull the upset against TCU, there’s a real chance this turns into a matchup of two undefeated teams—assuming Clemson takes care of business in their challenging home opener against LSU.
North Carolina has its work cut out. The offensive line and rushing attack are going to have a hard time against future first-rounder Peter Woods and Clemson’s vaunted d-line. This feels like a game where UNC is going to struggle, especially if they can’t lean on their bread and butter—running the football. Gio Lopez and the receivers will need to have their best outing of the year to stay in it.
Expect a valiant first half… before Clemson eventually flexes their muscle like they usually do. This program is due for a blockbuster win, but I don't see it coming in this moment.
Clemson 34, North Carolina 19 [3-2 record, 0-1 in the ACC]
Week 7- BYE WEEK
@ California- Week 8
Will North Carolina be sleepwalking through this 10:30 p.m. ET kickoff? A cross-country flight and coming off a bye week will test the program early to see if they can keep their focus throughout the season. Depending on how the Clemson game goes in Week 6, this could either spark a big win streak or be the game that helps the Tar Heels get back on track.
Cal was a middle-of-the-road team last year, finishing 6-6—but there’s a caveat. They lost five games by just one possession, meaning they were this close to a breakout season if the execution had been a little sharper. I expect Cal to have a bowl-worthy year, partly because of their soft schedule. Their toughest games are Louisville and Duke. Nothing that blows me away. That means they’ll likely come into this one with some wins under their belt. There’s a real shot they’re 5-1 or better by the time UNC comes to town—and paper wins or not, momentum is real.
According to ESPN’s Power Index, UNC and Cal are nearly even—projected for 6.7 and 6.5 wins, respectively. This has the makings of a random ACC classic, and I don’t know why, but I can feel it in my bones.
In my projection, Cal’s Devin Brown and UNC’s Gio Lopez both light it up through the air as the defenses struggle to contain either offense. It’s a true 50/50 matchup, and while Cal has the home-field edge, I’m taking the Heels—by a whisker in a rare road win at night.
North Carolina 28, California 27 [4-2 record, 1-1 in the ACC]
vs Virginia- Week 9
In the 'South’s Oldest Rivalry,' there always seems to be some surprises. Last season, North Carolina dominated defensively—racking up TEN sacks, two interceptions (including a pick-six), and holding UVA to just seven net rushing yards. Virginia’s offensive line was a mess, and UNC took full advantage, cruising to a 38-14 win.
This year, UVA should be a bit more stable with graduate senior Chandler Morris at quarterback. The offense will likely take a step forward—but the defense? Still a major concern. A unit that only had 19 sacks and gave up over 30 points per game isn’t going to flip the script overnight.
I fully expect Carolina to handle business at home. Slugfest? Maybe. But a win? That has to be a certainty.
North Carolina 24, Virginia 20 [5-2 record, 2-1 in the ACC]
@ Syracuse- Week 10
Halloween Night. On the road. Against a team that's projected to be no good? What could go wrong? Well, if you’ve followed North Carolina football lately — a lot, actually.
2020 against FSU. 2021 against Virginia Tech. 2022 against Georgia Tech. 2023 against UVA. 2024 against JMU. Get the picture?
Every season, there’s that one game — the one UNC shouldn’t lose — and they proceed to get embarrassed as a massive favorite. The question now is whether Belichick can flip the script, reset the program's defeatist mindset, and finally exorcise those demons.
On paper, Syracuse is down bad. They’re losing a core offensive trio:
QB Kyle McCord (4,779 yards, 34 TDs)
RB LeQuint Allen (1,021 rushing, 521 receiving, 20 total TDs)
TE Oronde Gadsden II (73 receptions, 934 yards, 7 TDs)
That’s a ton of production to replace, and the Orange will likely struggle to stay competitive in the ACC this year. That being said, they did secure ten victories last year and the winning mentality doesn't just disappear overnight.
But here's the thing: this is the kind of game UNC weirdly drops every year. And in typical Tar Heel fashion, it’s a backbreaking fourth quarter that does them in. Two late Syracuse touchdowns do them in. Halloween night turns into another inexplicable nightmare.
Syracuse 29, North Carolina 23 [5-3 record, 2-2 in the ACC]
vs Stanford- Week 11
There aren’t many true gimmes on this schedule with how the roster’s built — but this one’s about as close as it gets. After blowing a winnable game to Syracuse, I don’t see North Carolina dropping another one, especially not on homecoming.
Stanford went 3–9 last season…and in the ACC, that’s saying something. Look for Steve Belichick’s defense to tighten up, make the necessary adjustments, and take care of business back in Chapel Hill. Three interceptions, including a pick-six, set the tone as UNC cruises to a relatively easy dub.
North Carolina 31, Stanford 16 [6-3 record, 3-2 in the ACC]
@ Wake Forest- Week 12
Beat your rivals, win the hearts of the fans. The final three weeks of the season are the most important stretch for North Carolina and here’s why.
Let’s be real: UNC probably isn’t winning 10 games, claiming an ACC title, or cracking the end-of-season AP Top 25 when it’s all said and done. That’s not what this year is about. What is crucial? Winning your in-state matchups.
Beating your North Carolina rivals isn’t just about bragging rights — it’s about recruiting, building your brand, dominating the state, and setting the tone for the future. When kids across the state turn on their TVs, they want to see a winner. If UNC takes beatdowns from its local competition, that doesn't exactly help draw in the next wave of fans and future Tar Heel recruits.
Everything starts with Wake Forest, the first of three straight ‘Tobacco Road’ games to close the year. If Belichick wants to usher in a new era the right way, this is where you prove it: by finishing strong, something UNC hasn’t consistently done in years past.
The Heels have won four straight over the Demon Deacons, and I expect that trend to continue in a tough, gritty road matchup.
North Carolina 34, Wake Forest 20 [7-3 record, 4-2 in the ACC]
Duke- Week 13
In recent years, North Carolina has found a way to beat Duke. Winners of five straight, that impressive streak came to an end in Durham last season as Carolina blew a 20-0 second-half lead and lost in the final minute. The Tar Heels will be looking to avenge last year's defeat and ignite a new streak.
The Blue Devils will be infused with new talent as quarterback Darian Mensah, a top-rated transfer from Tulane, enters the fold. Instantly, he'll join Cade Klubnik and Carson Beck as the top QBs in the ACC. North Carolina's defense must be on point in order for them to beat their rival.
I have no doubt that it will come down to the wire again. But on Senior Day, the Heels get it done, pulling out a dramatic win on a game-winning field goal. And hey, perhaps we'll witness another field rush as the Heels pick up their their biggest win of the year, capturing the eighth W of the 2025 campaign.
North Carolina 27, Duke 24 [8-3 record, 5-2 in the ACC]
@ NC State- Week 14
Do I need to say more? North Carolina’s most important game of the year comes on the road in the season finale. The Wolfpack continue to show who's boss in this crosstown rivalry, winning four straight. If Belichick wants to earn the fans’ trust, he has to figure out how to break NC State’s hex. Doesn’t matter if both teams are 3-8 or 10-1—this game means a lot to everyone involved on both sides.
Beating a rival on their home turf starts with toughness—and UNC will undoubtedly have more of that this year. Dave Doeren might be on the hot seat, but his one constant has been showing up big against Carolina. Quarterback C.J. Bailey is still raw, but the potential is real with the right development. Can UNC's defense disrupt his flow like they failed to do in the clutch last season?
This is viewed as State's 'Super Bowl' in the locker room and they play in the matchup like there's no tomorrow. Can Carolina play with the same intensity? Until I see the Heels show the toughness that is needed to win, I can't project them to emerge victorious.
NC State 26, North Carolina 20 [8-4 record, 5-3 in the ACC]
Final Record Predictions & Final Thoughts
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