WACO TX (October 14th, 2024)- College Football is approaching its halfway point in the season which for North Carolina basketball fans, it only means one thing: it's time for basketball season. Only the real ones will get that joke.
In the 2023-24 NCAA Men's Basketball season, no team was able to slow down the Husky Express as Dan Hurley's Connecticut Huskies won back-to-back titles for the first time since the '06-'07 Florida Gators. Now, every college basketball fan is hoping that literally anyone can dethrone them and end this dynastic run. Can that team be the Tar Heels?
North Carolina basketball saw legend Armando Bacot graduate from the program along with transfer pickups Cormac Ryan and Harrison Ingram. Now, they'll attempt to reload with some talented transfers and electrifying freshman as they try to maintain their perch atop the ACC. Who are these newcomers? I'm glad you asked...
Projected Starters
R.J. Davis, guard- North Carolina's highly-touted basketball program has had an abundance of riches at the guard position. Whether it was Phil Ford in the 70s, Kenny Smith in the 80s, or Ed Cota in the 90s, UNC has always had an elite guard to keep the program afloat. No matter what happens in the Tar Heels' championship quest, Davis will go down as one of the most prolific guards in Carolina history.
When it's all said and done, Davis, who currently ranks fifth all-time in most points as a Tar Heel (2,088) could potentially overtake Tyler Hansborough's "untouchable" record as North Carolina's all-time leading scorer. He's consistent, he's dependable, he's resilient. He's R.J. Davis.
Elliot Cadeau, guard- Talented but flawed. Thrusted into the starting lineup as a freshman, Cadeau's playmaking ability was on display. Passing was his biggest attribute, dazzling spectators with his incredible court-vision. His biggest improvement in 2024 will need be a development of a consistent jump shot. There were several times where it felt like Carolina was playing 4 v 5 on offense as Cadeau was unable to knock down the open jumper (shot 19% from the arc in '23). In order for Carolina to reach their ceiling, the sophomore will need to drastically improve his shooting and free throw technique.
Ian Jackson, guard- A star in the making. Jackson will come in and make an instant impact for North Carolina. If UNC ends up making a championship run, it's likely Jackson will be lauded as one of best freshman in the country due to his contributions. His ability to "score-at-will" and take over on 1-on-1 situations will make him one of college basketball's most electrifying stars. It helps that he'll be playing alongside two elite shooters in Davis and Tyson to help loosen the burden in his freshman year. The sky's the limit for the Bronx native.
Cade Tyson, forward- UNC's highest-coveted transfer, Tyson hopes to have a Harrison Ingram/Brady Manek type impact for the Heels. Often times, North Carolina failed to find a consistent shooter outside of R.J. Davis and Harrison Ingram. Tyson will show up every night and provide consistent offense from the arc. He's a stellar three-point shooter, going 46.5% at Belmont in his sophomore year. At 6'7, Tyson can be an above-average rebounder, a trait North Carolina has always coveted.
Ven-Allen Lubin, forward/center- The most underrated pickup for the Tar Heels will likely be a starter in short order. He'll battle with Jalen Washington for the final spot in the lineup. His biggest advantage over Washington is he was a full-time starter with Vanderbilt last season and excelled, averaging 12.3 PPG and 6.3 rebounds. He can make the occasional three when open and is a solid shot blocker. He'll be an excellent pickup for UNC. He doesn't need to be as prolific as Armando Bacot, he just needs to be himself and everything will be fine.
Key Reserves
Seth Trimble, guard- A walking 'SportsCenter Top 10' athlete, Trimble's dynamic ability to get to the cup and be an elite rim protector as a guard is an invaluable trait. The defensive savant tested the transfer portal in the offseason but quickly realized that Carolina is where he'll most excel. He's not going to light up the scoreboard but his impact is as important as anyone's on the team.
Jalen Washington, center- It was pretty apparent that North Carolina's coaching staff wasn't too comfortable with Washington being the clear-cut starter following the departure of star center Armando Bacot. Washington's issue has always been his defense around the rim. He could very well start off the season in the Starting Five and have a very productive season. At the same time, he could fade into the background and only get 5-10 minutes a game like he did last season. It'll ultimately come down to how his defense improves in year three.
Jae'Lyn Withers, forward- Despite his major goof in UNC's Sweet Sixteen loss to Alabama last year, Withers had an important role coming off the bench. If you look at his raw stats, averaging a career low 12.4 minutes-per-game (MPG) and registering 4.2 PPG may not seem impactful. If you go back and watch the games, it was precisely the timing of his buckets that earned him a steady flow of playing time. He brought immense hustle and energy when the team needed a spark. He'll likely have a similar role this season.
Drake Powell, forward- Defense is the name of the game for this dynamic five-star recruit. Powell comes from right down the road in Pittsboro, N.C. which is a wonderful story. The consensus is while Powell has NBA aspirations, it may take him a while to adjust in comparison to his five-star counterpart Ian Jackson, who is a projected lottery pick in the '25 NBA Draft. The minutes that he'll likely earn in Year One will be crucial to his development and pro aspirations.
Ty Claude, forward- A late addition to the Tar Heels' roster, Claude has been around all levels of college basketball. He's played at Morehead State (two years), Western Carolina, Georgia Tech, and now North Carolina. He understands that he's coming in as a high-energy role player. A player that is grateful to be on an elite program and knows his role is always a great sight to see.
James Brown, center- When you come to North Carolina as a three-star recruit, it's almost a given that you're expected to be a role player. With Ven-Allen Lubin and Jalen Washington ahead of him in the projected lineup at center, it's highly unlikely that Brown will see a lot of minutes as a freshman. The talent is certainly there to make an impact as he continues to develop.
Biscuit Boys
Dante Mayo, Jr, Russell Hawkins, Elijah Davis, John Holbrook- You know the drill! Seldomly are the Tar Heels on the bad side of a blowout. When you see the 'Biscuit Boys' on the court, it's time to party with some Bojangles biscuits.
On the Shelf
Zayden High, forward- High is redshirting the 2024-25 college basketball season as he was suspended by North Carolina for an unannounced reason, likely due to disciplinary or academic reasons. As a freshman, he earned some minutes early in the season but often ran into senseless foul trouble. Although he can't be with the program this season, some time away can help him get his mind right and come back ready to contribute.
Schedule Analysis
Preseason/Non-Conference Play
It's time to hit the ground running. North Carolina kicks off the season with a mini-preseason of sorts, most notably against Memphis in a nationally-televised charity exhibition game (Hoops for St. Jude Tip-Off Classic) at the FedEx Forum on October 15th. 100% of the proceeds are going to St. Jude which is pretty neat.
I like this move by Hubert Davis as he can get his team into the competitive mindset early and avoid an early-season upset like the Tar Heels tend to suffer. This will presumedly replace the "not-so-secret" scrimmage, like last year's "victory" against Florida Atlantic in the Dean Dome. Their second preseason matchup will take place against Johnson C. Smith on October 27th, just eight days before North Carolina tips off the regular season against the Elon Phoenix.
It's essentially required that North Carolina has to play one of the premiere blue-bloods (Kentucky, UConn, Michigan State or Kansas) in non-con play every season. In UNC's biggest matchup of the first month, the Heels get an electrifying test in Allen Fieldhouse against the Preseason #1 Jayhawks. North Carolina has historically struggled against KU so a win here would do wonders for their confidence. It'll be an electrifying game but I have Kansas escaping with the win at home.
After their midwest trip, North Carolina gets to come home and likely get an easy win against American. Following that, they'll take a trip to Hawaii to take on the Rainbow Warriors in a Friday Night tune-up before the Maui Invitational. It's no secret that UNC has a knack to slip up in these early-season clashes.
They tip-off round one against a tournament-caliber team in the Dayton Flyers, which I'd expect to be a hard-fought win. Assuming they win, they'll get to take on #11 Auburn or #5 Iowa State, two teams that were top three seeds in March Madness. Here's where I expect UNC to slip up before winning their consolation match in the third game. Coming out of Maui, I expect the Tar Heels' record to be 5-2. While that might be a bit disappointing for some fans, rest assured that there are a lot of new pieces (including freshman) that need to gel together.
It's time to lick the wounds because the Crimson Tide is coming to town. In the ACC-SEC Challenge, it's time to get REVENGE on #2 Alabama. As most fans know, Carolina has lost their last two matchups against them, losing in four overtimes in '22 and last season by two points in the Sweet Sixteen. Third time should be the charm, right? Not exactly. North Carolina will lead for most of the game but suffer a devastating buzzer-beater loss, dropping the Heels to 5-3. The questions will begin to swirl but don't worry, this loss will be a crucial turning point in North Carolina's season.
After the Alabama heartbreak, they'll get their first ACC matchup of the year against Georgia Tech, a matchup where UNC will win BIG. A matchup against La Salle will get the biscuit boys some run on the court before they travel down the interstate to Charlotte for the Jumpman Invitational against #22 Florida.
I'll say the Tar Heels grab a trio of wins against the Gators in CLT, in the CBS Sports Classic against UCLA in Madison Square Garden, and finally against the Campbell Fighting Camels in Chapel Hill. In summary, the Tar Heels win five straight games to cap off 2024 with some confidence. The record will stand at 10-3 record headed into the meat of conference play.
Conference Play
The Heels waste no time jumping into the New Year. On January 1st, they'll get Louisville, who should be much improved from the previous two seasons. Head coach Kenny Payne is gone and Pat Kelsey, the former Winthrop HC, is here. It's a game where the Tar Heels should win but it will be much more challenging than it has been in quite a while. If they party too hard over the holidays, they could be in for a rude awakening.
After a UL win, I'm projecting the Tar Heels to go on a massive run through the conference. Against Notre Dame, SMU (welcome to the ACC), NC State, Cal, Stanford, Wake Forest, and Boston College, they'll see nothing but W's. At an impressive 8-0 in conference (don't forget about the Dec. Georgia Tech game), the Tar Heels will stake their claim as a true top five team in the country.
Losses will be hard to come by for UNC but I have them dropping their first conference game on a 9PM Tuesday game in Pittsburgh and following it up with a rare back-to-back loss in Cameron Indoor against Dook. The middle of their schedule will be a challenge as they'll get Pitt again, Clemson, and Syracuse following those contests. It's very possible they drop one there as well. However, I have UNC cruising once again following the Duke game as they'll win seven straight games.
With Senior Night approaching, North Carolina will get caught looking ahead. In the Cassell Coliseum, Virginia Tech will force a season-high in turnovers for the Heels and pull the massive upset, handing UNC their third conference loss of the year.
To cap off the regular season, it's no other than the Duke Blue Devils. After dropping the first matchup of the year, Hubert will pull all the stops to make sure R.J. Davis gets his senior moment against the crosstown rival. UNC goes into the ACC Tournament with an impressive double-digit win over the Blue Devils.
While the ACC Tournament and March Madness bracket is nearly impossible to predict (i.e. NC State in 2023), my three bold predictions of the season are these:
#1. North Carolina goes UNDEFEATED in conference play at home
#2. North Carolina captures an ACC Tournament Championship
In conclusion, here's how I see North Carolina's schedule shaking out:
Losses to @Kansas, vs Iowa State/Auburn, vs Alabama, @ Pitt, @ Duke, @ Virginia Tech, Elite Eight Loss
FINAL RECORD PREDICTION [incl. postseason]: 32-7 [17-3 in the ACC]
CEILING: National Champions
FLOOR: Round of 32 exit
PROJECTION: Elite Eight; first in the ACC
Final Thoughts
Last season validated Davis as the Tar Heels next superb coach, establishing that 2022's late season's run wasn't a fluke. North Carolina is in great hands for the foreseeable future with Hubert at the helm. In three seasons, we've seen the highs of a National Championship appearance, the lows of missing the NCAA Tournament, and the baseline expectations of a Sweet Sixteen appearance. It's not a matter of if but when the Heels are hoisting another title in the Smith Center. This season will be another challenging grind but perhaps there's some shiny hardware at the end of this treasure hunt. Anything is possible in Chapel Hill.
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