MACK IS BACK! The championship winning coach made the decision to come out of retirement as he attempts to resurrect the program that in the last two years, has been headed on a downward trajectory. Mack Brown coached the Tar Heels from 1988-1997 until he left to coach the Texas Longhorns. There, he won a national championship in the epic Rose Bowl game in 2005 against Southern California.
2015 was the high mark of Carolina Football. With a gunslinger quarterback in Marquise Williams, the Heels blazed through the ACC Coastal division, finishing 11-3 on the year. Although they fell short in the ACC Championship game to Clemson, the future was undoubtedly bright for the team.
The following season, the Heels had another solid year as they won eight games. Under center was quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. He only played one full season before later becoming the #2 pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. He will look to join other Tar Heel legends drafted at number 2 with Hall of Fame talents in Lawrence Taylor and Julius Peppers. Since then, the team has yet to find a stable passer to take over the legacy that Williams and Trubisky left behind.
The 2017 and 2018 seasons produced just five wins combined and ultimately led to the firing of former coach Larry Fedora. The defense slowly regressed and the offense failed to finish close games. The 2019 installment of the North Carolina Tar Heels attempts to be the start of something fresh and new. Can this team take the league by storm and pull a couple of upsets to become bowl eligible again or will it just be more of the same?
Quarterback
Incumbent QB Nathan Elliott struggled immensely for the majority of his tenure at North Carolina. There were even loud chants of “We Want Kelly” when Kelly Bryant took his official visit and was looking to transfer from Clemson. A poor performance lead to Elliott’s departure from the team. In 2019, there is nowhere to go but up for this group.
UNC has three quarterbacks that could all get playing time at some point in the year. Leading the way for this group should be true freshman Sam Howell. He definitely has the most potential out of the trio of passers but will need time to get acclimated under a college offense. Returning quarterbacks Cade Fortin and Jace Ruder both showed poise and promise in the limited action they saw. That being said, the injury bug was not kind as both of them suffered major injuries that stunted their development. Fortin showed his mobility in the Virginia Tech game and his nice touch on the deep ball against NC State in two narrow losses.
After a couple of weeks in training camp, Mack Brown’s staff came to the conclusion that Sam Howell would be best fit to start in Week 1. On August 18th, it was announced that Howell would work with the “blue” team while Fortin and Ruder would split reps on the “white” team. If that holds, Howell will get the first crack at the starting lineup against South Carolina on the 31st. However, if his comments back in March still hold true, we could possibly see two quarterbacks get significant playing time. According to the Daily Tar Heel, Brown mentioned that “We (UNC) really need two (quarterbacks).”
It was recently announced, according to WRAL Sports, that Fortin would enter the NCAA transfer portal after losing out on the starting job. I can’t blame him since he definitely has starter potential in college football. That means Howell and Ruder will be called on to lead the team for the foreseeable future. Can the duo elevate this team to new heights? Only time will tell.
Running Back
For anyone that closely follows this team, they know that the team’s success will ride on the effectiveness of their rushing attack. Michael Carter, Antonio Williams, and Javante Williams will lead an explosive three-headed attack. The team had a pretty even distribution of carries between Carter and Antonio Williams and I expect that to continue once again.
Antonio Williams is built for the red-zone and at the goal line, he should be the man to punch the ball in for six. Meanwhile, Carter is the biggest RB receiving threat as he added 25 receptions for 135 yards and 1 touchdown through the air. Javante Williams can be used as a change-of-pace back and to spell the other two backs when they become gassed.
Receivers
Leading receiver Anthony Ratliff-Williams decided to forgo his senior season to enter the NFL Draft. Unfortunately, he went undrafted but he was a free agent pickup by the Tennessee Titans. WR Dazz Newsome (44 REC, 506yds) will lead this group as he will be entrenched as the number one option in the passing game. He has showcased his ability to be a big-time playmaker on offense as well as in the punt return game, taking one to the house against Syracuse.
In addition, Dyami Brown and Beau Corrales will need to become solid options in Mack Brown’s new “air raid” offense. The negative is that receiver depth isn’t where Carolina would like it so that’s why I could see their top two tight ends, Carl Tucker Jr and Jake Bargas making a big impact. It will be interesting to see how often the offense employs 2 TE sets. Finding mismatches against slower linebackers and smaller cornerbacks could be the key to their success.
Defense
Anyone who came to Kenan for a game could easily see the NFL-caliber prospects on the field. On the defensive side of the ball, leading tackler LB Cole Holcomb is now a member of the Washington Redskins. It will be tough to replace UNC’s two best defensive players but DE Tomon Fox and LB Dominique Ross are no slouches. In addition, defensive lineman Jason Strowbridge will be returning as he hopes to build on his 5.5 sack season in his fourth year with the team.
Despite the losses on the front seven, UNC will have some returning playmakers such as Myles Dorn and Patrice Rene, who both snagged two interceptions last season. Like the offensive side of the ball, depth will be a major concern for this team if they can’t manage to stay healthy.
Game-by-Game Predictions
A new season commences at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC as the “Battle of the Carolinas” headlines the weekend. This will be Sam Howell’s presumed debut but we really have no idea what to expect. That could be a great thing if he excels or a terrible situation if he falters early. In addition, South Carolina was a very inconsistent team last season. They held their own against top competition like Texas A&M and Florida but had games like the Belk Bowl against Virginia where their offense was subpar. This opener could be a great one but when it’s all said and done, gimme USC to handle business.
South Carolina 30, UNC 20
Miami had a really disappointing season in 2018. The team was on the verge of their first College Football Playoff appearance in 2017 until getting upset by Pitt in the latter stages of their season to send them into a tailspin that carried over into the next season. Freshman QB Jarren Williams stunningly won the starting job for the Hurricanes over N’Kosi Perry and Ohio St transfer Tate Martell. If the newbie is shaky early, UNC could have a chance at a big upset. However, the roster from top to bottom favors the Canes, especially their linebacker core, and I think it will show in the latter stages of the game.
Miami 33, UNC 23
If UNC plans on exceeding expectations and sneaking into a bowl game, this “non-conference” game against an ACC opponent will be one they need to grab. Wake Forest’s offense ranked 27th in Division I last season so this game could be the first team to 40 points. If this game was at Kenan, I’d probably go Tar Heels here. Since it is an away game and the offense will still be establishing their rhythm, the Demon Deacons will grab a hard fought win to drop UNC to 0-3.
Wake Forest 41, UNC 34
I wouldn’t really call any game that the Tar Heels play this season a “trap game” since they are the underdogs in most of their matchups but if this team plans to stay relevant, beating an FCS team against an in-state rival is a must. App State has a history of taking elite programs to the wire. Now UNC isn’t elite but it is a game they have to win. When UNC, lost to East Carolina by three touchdowns, it was the lowest point that the organization has suffered this decade. Now, they must avenge that defeat against a tougher opponent. I’m not sure what to expect here but I’ll give the Heels the slight edge at home and grab their first win of the season.
UNC 31, Appalachian St 27
There’s not too much to say about this game. As long as sophomore phenom Trevor Lawrence is under center for the Tigers, this game shouldn’t be that competitive. If Carolina was to somehow stun Clemson, the town of Chapel Hill would burn for days in excitement. That’s a BIG IF though. The defending champs will have no trouble upending a very young Tar Heels squad.
Clemson 56, UNC 20
On the road in Atlanta, this won’t be an easy contest. Tech overcame a furious rally last season after being up 28-10, eventually winning 38-28. GT should be near the bottom of the ACC, giving UNC an opportunity to pick up a win. With better coaching, the ball should bounce the way of the Heels in a close game, especially with an improved coaching staff.
UNC 26, Georgia Tech 23
I got an opportunity to attend the UNC-Tech game last year and I was surprised by how well the defense played...until the final drive. VT is a beatable team but their offense won’t be as stagnant as the last matchup. The Hokies defense was below average last year, ranking 98th in the country (ESPN). If the unit continues to regress, there could be an opening for an upset. Will it happen? Probably not.
Virginia Tech 28, UNC 24
Duke has taken the “Victory Bell” in the past three matchups but there is a golden opportunity for the Heels to finally return the favor and snatch it back. Daniel Jones is long gone, paving the way for Quinton Harris. Despite UNC forcing three turnovers, there was no defense to be found in their last encounter. Both teams allowed a combined 1,165 yards. That’s insane! I’d for sure enjoy a sequel of that barnburner. As many UNC-Duke football games go, it’s a coin-flip at this point in the year. Heads, Duke wins. Tails, North Carolina wins. As the old adage goes, “tails never fails!”
UNC 24, Duke 20
Virginia is the real deal in the ACC this season. Many people including myself have them at the top of the Coastal Division and for good reason. Dual-threat QB Bryce Perkins is set to explode this season. However, the key for UVA to potentially make a run to the ACC Championship would be their stout defense. They were tied for 29th in the country, allowing less than 21 points a contest. I can’t really see UNC stealing this game unless their defense has the game of their lives and perhaps grabbing a defensive touchdown.
Virginia 35, UNC 17
For whatever reason, the Tar Heels have Pitt’s number. They have won six straight against the Panthers, dating back to 2013. Although Pat Narduzzi’s team unexpectedly won the ACC Coastal last season, I don’t envision the same success in 2019. At this point in the season, most would like to believe that Sam Howell would be firmly entrenched as the starting quarterback and showing signs of being competent. The weather should be getting frigid in November so expect the winner of the rushing battle to take the dub. In a narrow win, Michael Carter should be able to pave the way and help continue their impressive streak against Pittsburgh.
UNC 20, Pittsburgh 17
I’d say this is the only “automatic” win on the schedule for North Carolina this season. I’m not gonna lie, I know absolutely nothing about Mercer football. There’s not many people that do unless you live in Georgia. I do know that their basketball team “Nae-Nae’d” their way past Duke in the 2014 NCAA Second Round in a huge upset. Since then, the Bears have been good in my book. It’s safe to say that there will be no upset here.
UNC 62, Mercer 16
The Heels came dangerously close to knocking off their gridiron rival on Thanksgiving Weekend last year. Like every close game last year, the Heels fell flat in the game’s final moments. Carter-Finley Stadium is not an easy environment to play in and the intensity will be heightened against their biggest rival (not ours). NC State will need Matt McKay to step up as he attempts to replace prolific passer Ryan Finley (drafted in Round 4). UNC will also need to become more stout against the run game. Reggie Gallaspy ran for FIVE touchdowns against the Heels last year so that is something they will need to clean up. I believe it will be another close one but NC State should be able to continue their success against the baby blue.
NC State 37, UNC 31
Final Prediction Record: 5-7
BEST CASE: 6-6
WORST CASE: 2-10
The beauty of this season is there is renewed hope for the first time in three years. There has been a lot of hype surrounding this team and putting a winning product on the field will go a long way towards changing the culture of this organization. A positive from last year was that this team was close in seven out of their nine losses, losing those by ten points or less and two in overtime.
To me, some minor improvements in execution and coaching can go a long way towards improving the win total. In all likelihood this season should be another rebuilding one. Best case is they get to 6-6 and get to a bowl game. Worst case is winning two games like last season. That being said, I see this team being bowl eligible in 2020 but 4-5 wins should be expected for now.
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