It's time for Carolina Football and the hype is at an all-time high for fans of the blue and white. Not too long ago (2018), the Heels were coming off a horrendous 2-9 season with no hope on the horizon. Within a couple of years, Mack Brown and his coaching staff have completely changed the culture and program outlook for years to come. Last season, North Carolina met expectations, going 8-4 and making a trip to the Orange Bowl, their first major bowl game since 1950. After having a taste of success, now it is time to prove if they can sustain it.
Roster Analysis
OFFENSE
Quarterback- If you haven't heard of Sam Howell, you probably don't know much about college football. Howell will likely have a lot on his mind in the next few months. With another prolific season, the junior could wind up as the number one overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. In order for Howell to win college football's most prestigious award, the Heisman Trophy, UNC will likely have to make the College Football Playoff which may mean finishing the regular season undefeated and/or upsetting Clemson (in all likelihood) in the ACC Championship Game. Jacolby Criswell and Drake Maye will be the backups at the position.
Running Backs- It’ll be tough to replace the production of Javonte Williams and Michael Carter. It is more than likely that a "committee" approach will be taken with the hot hand getting the bulk of the carries. Graduate transfer Ty Chandler has the most experience and should lead the backfield with D.J. Jones, Caleb Hood, and Josh Henderson mixing into the rotation. Will Carolina have two 1,000 yard backs this season? I doubt it. However, a diverse skill set with Chandler and the other backs should keep defenses on their toes.
Wide Receiver/Tight End- Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome are gone but the receiving room is in great hands (no pun intended). Sophomore wideout Josh Downs didn’t play much during his freshman year but his two-touchdown Orange Bowl performance put the nation on notice. He’ll likely be the number one option in the slot, replacing Newsome’s production. Meanwhile, Dyami’s brother, Khafre, has game-breaking speed and will likely occupy the outside receiver position alongside super-senior Beau Corrales. Emery Simmons and Antoine Green will be supporting receivers and freshman J.J. Jones may work his way into the rotation before the season’s end. For the tight end position, Garrett Walston will likely see an increased role in the offense with backup tight end Kamari Morales helping out in the blocking game.
Offensive Line- The big men up front often get overlooked by the casual football fan but if North Carolina ends up having a blockbuster season, much of it will be because of the experience of this offensive line. Having veteran leadership and continuity on the line is crucial for the rushing attack and to keep Sam Howell upright. Jordan Tucker, Marcus McKethan, Brian Anderson, Joshua Ezeudu, and Asim Richards are all returning.
DEFENSE
If North Carolina plans to meet the expectations of becoming a top-10 team, their defense must improve from last season. Outside of linebacker Chazz Surratt, the Tar Heels are returning everyone which will bode well for their chances to improve. The key for UNC is to generate more pass rush (36 sacks in 2020) and takeaways (only 11 in 2020), which was non-existent at times.
In UNC's losses, there was a key trend: big deficits early and giving up a boatload of points. They gave up 53, 45, 44, and 41 points up in various times in the season. They were also down 24-0, 41-20, and 45-24 against FSU, UVA, and Wake Forest respectively. The fact that all of those games ended one possession games shows the power of the offense. However, the ultimate goal is to NOT be in those deficits in the first place. That's not a recipe for success and is why they had some inexplicable losses.
Defensive Line- In UNC’s marquee games against Notre Dame and Texas A&M, the Heels’ held their own for three quarters. In the fourth, they got worn down and couldn’t get off the field. This season, starting defensive tackle Raymond Vohasek returns for his super senior season to lead the interior. Myles Murphy, Kevin Hester, and Kaimon Rucker will also see time on the inside, providing key depth. Meanwhile, the Fox brothers, Tomari and Tomon, will also be back to provide more continuity on the edge. They combined for 11 sacks in 2020. Fans should most excited to see Desmond Evans, who is A LOT bigger and has more experience in the system.
Linebacker- Eugene Asante and Jeremiah Gemmel are the clear-cut options at the position but the defense is also set up for the future with some promising young freshmen that impressed during spring practice. Rara Dilworth and Power Echols might not see the field much this season but they’ll be part of the depth that elite college football programs need to be successful over the long haul.
Secondary- In a conference with Miami’s D’Eriq King and Clemson’s D.J. Uiagalelei, having a potent secondary is key. Fortunately for the Heels, their secondary is the strongest it’s been under the Mack Brown 2.0 era. Leading the way is sophomore Tony Grimes who emerged in the second-half of the year. He screams “first-round pick” in a couple of years. He’ll be the number one corner alongside Kyler McMichael. Fan-favorite Storm Duck could start as well or will rotate in. After coming off a season-ending injury, Duck could be a huge cog in the UNC secondary. It will be interesting to see who plays in the slot (nickel position). Ja’Qurious Conley moved to safety so Don Chapman looks to be the leader to fill the role. Rounding out the secondary will be safety Trey Morrison, who had a solid 2020 campaign with the Tar Heels.
Special Teams- Kicker Grayson Atkins returns after an up-and-down 2020 campaign. After a career-high field goal percentage at Furman in 2019, he regressed to making just 12 of 18 kicks. UNC will likely need him to be at his best with several tough games on the schedule that could come down to a clutch kick. Meanwhile, punter Ben Kiernan from Ireland will continue to be a solid presence. The hope for Tar Heel fans is that they’ll be seeing a lot more touchdowns than field goals and first downs instead of punts.
One issue that Carolina will need to fix is their coverage unit. In two of their losses, special teams arguably cost them the game. The Florida State game resulted in two blocked punts and a missed field goal. In the Virginia game, there was a missed field goal and a fake punt conversion allowed which iced the game for the Cavaliers. Special teams will need to be a strong suit for Carolina to take the next step.
Game-By-Game Predictions
@ Virginia Tech- Friday Night Lights? You better believe it. The season kicks off as North Carolina travels to Blacksburg to take on the Hokies. The opener is always a tricky one and I expect this game to be a close one with head coach Justin Fuente firmly on the hot seat for VT. The Heels struggled on the road in 2020, losing two games and barely squeaking by Boston College in the final seconds. Lane Stadium is always a tough place to play and UNC only winning twice there since Virginia Tech joined the ACC in 2004. That being said, I expect UNC's offensive firepower to be the difference as they will pull away late and start the season off with a W. North Carolina 34, Virginia Tech 24 (1-0); chance to win: 65%; NCAA Game Sim: UNC 34, VT 30
Georgia State- Home opener against a Group of Five school? The Panthers lost 51-0 to Coastal Carolina last year which is...bad. UNC should have no trouble against an inferior foe. North Carolina 52, Georgia State 13 (2-0); chance to win: 99%; NCAA Game Sim: UNC 40, Georgia State 19
Virginia- UVA has owned North Carolina, winning the last four contests between the two. If there is an early season loss, it could be this one. It won’t be easy but I expect UNC to stay focused and end their losing streak against the Hoos. North Carolina 27, Virginia 23 (3-0); chance to win: 75%; NCAA Game Sim: UNC 38, UVA 20
Georgia Tech (neutral site in Atlanta)- The Yellow Jackets are getting better but it won’t be enough to realistically close the talent gap. However, these are the games where UNC needs to stay focused or else, it could end up being a season of "what-ifs?"as they'll be on the wrong side of a major upset. North Carolina 42, Georgia Tech 17 (4-0); chance to win: 85%; NCAA Game Sim: UNC 38, Georgia Tech 10
Duke- It is a rivalry game and the Victory Bell is on the line. The coaching staff at UNC has emphasized winning the interstate battle for recruiting purposes in the state. Both teams are headed in opposite directions and Duke will probably be one of the worst teams in Division I football. It wouldn’t be too surprising if this one gets ugly quick. North Carolina 41, Duke 13 (5-0); chance to win: 85%; NCAA Game Sim: UNC 68, Duke 17
Florida State- UNC isn’t going to lose two years in a row to FSU, right? This game should’ve been circled since the schedule was announced. This will be a statement game for Sam Howell and Mack Brown, both who have ties with the Seminole program. It’s almost a given that Florida State will have more talent this year but it won’t matter in the end. North Carolina 49, Florida State 21 (6-0); chance to win: 70%; NCAA Game Sim: FSU 24, UNC 17
Miami- The Hurricanes were embarrassed by North Carolina’s offense in 2020, allowing 62 points in a blowout defeat. There's almost no chance that happens again unless someone wants to lose their job. Manny Diaz and Miami would love nothing more than to beat UNC and avenge last year’s performance. The Canes will also be coming off a bye week so they will have twice as much time to prepare and they'll be rested for a game that will likely be under the lights of primetime. Running back Ty Chandler must be a major factor as the Canes struggled to contain Javonte Williams and Michael Carter last season, allowing the duo to run for a record-breaking 544 yards. The game will be a lot closer and could possibly decide the ACC Coastal. In a classic, the victory should go to the Heels at home. North Carolina 35, Miami 28 (7-0); chance to win: 55%; NCAA Game Sim: UNC 38, Miami 27
@ Notre Dame- Has Mack Brown had a true signature win yet since returning to Carolina? This is his biggest regular season opportunity against a perennial contender. This game comes at the perfect time as they will be fresh off a bye week and having time to prepare for the biggest game of the year. However, that didn’t help them last year as the Heels had a bye week before the Notre Dame game and lost. The defensive line is the biggest factor. The Irish lost four-fifths of their starting lineman while UNC has a deeper d-line. They must be able to limit Kyren Williams who is one of the nation’s top running backs. If UNC comes into this game undefeated and ends up losing this game, it probably won’t be the end of the world as the Irish should be a great team once again. In a 50/50 game, I’ll take Howell and Co. to narrowly stay undefeated. North Carolina 33, Notre Dame 30 (OT) (8-0); chance to win: 50%; NCAA Game Sim: UNC 44, Notre Dame 31
Wake Forest- A classic "trap" game following arguably the two biggest opponents on the schedule. A side note: this game is classified as a "non-conference game" even though both teams are in the ACC. If UNC is able to knock off Notre Dame, the Demon Deacons have a golden opportunity to steal a game here. This will be a big test to see if Carolina can avoid the mental lapses that caused upsets in 2020. Last year's contest was a shootout, with both teams scoring over 50 points. While I doubt we'd see that again, it should still be an entertaining game. I'm giving the win to UNC here but when we look back in a few months, I won't be surprised if this is the first game the Heels drop. North Carolina 37, Wake Forest 30 (9-0); chance to win: 65%; NCAA Game Sim: Wake Forest 41, UNC 38
@ Pittsburgh- Every year, Pat Narduzzi’s team gets a big win. In 2019, it was against #15 UCF. In 2017, they stunned #2 Miami. Finally, Nathan Peterman (yes, really) led Pitt to a remarkable win against #3 Clemson in 2016 to shock the nation. North Carolina could be coming into this game undefeated if they handle their business against Notre Dame and Miami. This has the makings of a top college football upset.
There's a couple of factors that don't favor UNC here. It's on a short week, in the cold, and presumedly after a winning streak. In addition, Kenny Pickett will be in his fifth season with the team, providing a veteran poise that is needed for big games. Last season, UNC lost two games they had no business losing. Like Pittsburgh has done several times before, they’ll end the dreams of an undefeated season, leaving UNC no room for error if they hope to make the College Football Playoff. Pitt 24, North Carolina 20 (9-1); chance to win: 65%; NCAA Game Sim: UNC 52, Pitt 23
Wofford- There’s not much to be said about this game. The Heels will rebound after their first loss of the season by blowing the doors off the Terriers in Chapel Hill. North Carolina 55, Wofford 10 (10-1); chance to win: 99%; NCAA Game Sim: Not available [UNC win]
@ NC State- The Wolfpack had a nice bounce-back season and should continue that momentum into 2021. I don’t see them winning the season finale though against their rivals. UNC has caught their stride at the end of the season in the previous two years under Mack Brown, which doesn’t bode well for the team in red. UNC will finish the regular season at 11-1, matching their 2015 season total, setting up a date with the Tigers for the ACC Crown. North Carolina 45, NC State 26 (11-1); chance to win: 65%; NCAA Game Sim: UNC 30, NC State 14
ACC Championship game- Clemson Tigers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
It’s very likely that the Tigers will head into this game undefeated (12-0) if they get past Georgia in the season opener. If both teams are 11-1, this game will likely set up as a de-facto playoff elimination game. The winner is headed to the CFP and the loser is done. A two-loss team has never made the College Football Playoff and I don’t see a realistic way that changes this year. In previous years, Clemson has dominated teams in the ACC Championship, including #2 Notre Dame last season.
Sophomore quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei may not be Trevor Lawrence but based off his brief regular season play, it's more than likely he'll be a star. Sam Howell will have its hands full trying to pass against cornerback Andrew Booth Jr. For UNC to pull out the win, establishing the run game will be a necessity. When the Tar Heels struggled, it was when they failed to run the football. Clemson might have the best defense in college football next season which doesn't help the Heels chances.
While I believe UNC will be up to the task, Clemson has been in more big games and knows what it takes to win in the clutch. North Carolina will score a late touchdown to keep it close but ultimately, Dabo Swinney will do enough to lead Clemson back to the College Football Playoff. Clemson 38, North Carolina 34 (11-2); chance to win: 30%; NCAA Game Sim: Clemson 31, UNC 27
Record Analysis
Best case scenario: 12-2 record [post-bowl game]; first berth in College Football Playoff; lose in semi-final
Worst case scenario: 8-5 record; fails to improve on record, doesn’t win ACC Coastal, loses bowl game
PREDICTION: 12-2 record (losses to Pitt, Clemson [ACC Champ]); wins Peach Bowl
ACC Coastal Projected Standings [pre-ACC Champ]: UNC (11-1), Miami (9-3), Virginia Tech (8-4), Pitt (8-4), Virginia (6-6), Georgia Tech (4-8), Duke (3-9)
ACC Atlantic Projected Standings: Clemson (11-1), Boston College (8-4), NC State (8-4), Wake Forest (7-5), Florida State (6-6), Louisville (4-8), Syracuse (3-9)
College Football Playoff prediction: #1. Alabama (13-0), #2. Oklahoma (13-0), #3. Georgia (12-1), #4. Clemson (12-1)
New Year's Six Game Predictions + Nat'l Championship
National Championship predictions: Alabama def Oklahoma 49-31
Final Thoughts
If North Carolina isn’t an AP top ten team by season’s end, it will be a major disappointment considering their favorable schedule and their lofty expectations. While the College Football Playoff might be a little too much to ask, a New Year’s Six game and playing in the Peach Bowl or Fiesta Bowl needs to be the expectation.
It will mostly likely take an upset against Clemson to make the playoff. However, if UNC finishes the regular season undefeated, it's very likely they'd be in even with a loss in the ACC Championship. As previously mentioned, traveling to Notre Dame is a 50/50 game, while Miami could upend UNC if they rest on their laurels from last year’s performance. The rest of the schedule is very manageable and should bode well for the Heels if they stay focused.
Regardless of what happens record-wise, it is clear that North Carolina football is here to stay. Howell's impending departure following the 2021 season doesn't mean the end of the program's playoff hopes going forward. Mack Brown is building something special and it starts with recruiting. UNC is winning the in-state battle, surging ahead of NC State, Duke, and Wake Forest. They are beginning to develop NFL-level talent and their offensive scheme will bode well for the likes of guys like Josh Downs and Tony Grimes who will see their draft stock skyrocket after this season.
How will UNC fare this season? Respond in the comments!
Comments