MOSELEY V.a - It has been nearly two months without live sports in the world. The Coronavirus pandemic has festered into upwards of five million cases worldwide and 100,000 deaths are projected in the U.S. by the end of May. However, the United States is slowly starting to "open up" again in phases, paving the way for sports to possibly return in the next few weeks if everything goes according to plan.
Recently, a couple of sports leagues have returned. If you are a night owl, you can catch the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) in action on ESPN at 3:30am (good luck with that). I honestly didn’t even know this existed until two weeks ago. In addition, the UFC, NASCAR and the German Bundesliga have returned as well, albeit without fans. Still, it’s something and something is better than nothing.
Personally, March Madness was the biggest gut punch. Although it was the right call to cancel the tournament, it was sad to see these student-athletes not get the opportunity to play in the tournament. For some smaller schools, chances like this don’t come often. For many seniors, this is the last time they would play organized basketball and that is a tough pill to swallow.
It hasn’t been all doom and gloom in the sports world. “The Last Dance” ft. Bulls’ and North Carolina legend Michael Jordan was a major hit. Not only that but there was an announcement that a new Tom Brady documentary called “The Man in the Arena” is coming to ESPN in 2021. I’m pumped for that and I can only hope it is half as good as the Michael Jordan documentary.
For golf fans, “The Match 2: Champions for Charity” takes flight on May 24th. Tiger Woods and Peyton Manning take on Phil Mickelson and Tom Brady in a celebrity clash. I’m not much of a golf fan but I may have to tune in for a few minutes to watch this one.
To get live sports up and running again, there are several complications that must be resolved. The first issue is the most important one: health. Will there be enough tests for every player to use every few days? This is extremely important so doctors can get the jump on contact tracing in the event an athlete contracts the virus, which is inevitable.
The second issue is finances. Players, owners, broadcasters, journalists, and league employees are losing money by the day. Not everyone is a millionaire and many people depend on income brought in by sports to make ends meet. In my opinion, the driving force for the potential restart of sports leagues for 2020 is the economy.
The third major issue is logistics. Can a sports league get everyone on board to sacrifice their freedom and health in order to play? Where will the games be played? How would the continuation of this season affect next year’s season? Will a second outbreak occur before a restarted season could be completed? There are hundreds of questions that need to be hashed out before a return to action becomes a reality.
In this article, I will analyze the current sport league situations and give my hypothesis on when the top sports leagues will make their triumphant return.
First on the list...the National Football League.
NOTE: Everything in this article is a prediction and ultimately, it is my educated guess on sports news that I've read, watched, and analyzed.
National Football League (NFL)- currently on track to start on time
This NFL season is set to be one of the most intriguing seasons yet. How will quarterback Tom Brady and tight end Rob Gronkowski do in Tampa Bay? Can the Bills FINALLY win a playoff game with their best team in the 2000s? Can the Chiefs or 49ers get back to the Super Bowl? How will number one draft pick Joe Burrow do in Cinci?
While those storylines are juicy, there is a possibility that a season may be delayed, shortened or be without fans. Could you imagine a Super Bowl without fans? It seems unfathomable but becomes more plausible by the day. FOX Sports have been rumored to be implementing artificial crowd noise and “virtual” fans if the virus prevents spectators from entering the stadiums. That would be....interesting.
What would I do? Start the season on time without fans
A sporting event without fans is a completely different environment. That being said, I’m sure every sports fan would be fine with it if we got football in any capacity. One thing this may do is negate “home-field advantage” and give fans a unique perspective to see what would happen in a truly "neutral" environment.
It just wouldn't make sense for any sports league to have a full capacity of fans in the stands until a vaccine is distributed. An NFL stadium can have between 60,000 to over 100,000 people in them at a time and many people come from all over the country to watch their team play. If even five people have the virus in that stadium, it could cause another major outbreak. That is a disaster waiting to happen and the NFL won't take that chance and risk lives.
What will happen? Season will start on time with no fans for the majority of the season
The league seems committed to a season and they have the most time to figure out logistics. The virtual 2020 NFL Draft in April went very smoothly and the league went forward with their schedule release as well, confirming their confidence for a full slate of games this year.
Preseason games will 99% NOT have fans because it is a glorified practice anyway. However, the regular season may provide an opportunity for a couple thousand fans to be in attendance if strict procedures are implemented.
I wouldn’t expect fans in the stands until 2021 so maybe the NFL Playoffs and Super Bowl will have a limited capacity of fans. That’s a big IF as things stand today but I could potentially see it happening a little bit earlier.
National Basketball Association (NBA)- suspended operations on March 11th
It feels like yesterday when Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert tested positive for the coronavirus. Since that moment, the sports world has not been the same. LeBron James and the Lakers were catching their stride while Giannis' Milwaukee Bucks were cruising their way to the best record in the league. Will this epic season continue or is the writing on the wall?
What would I do? Finish the season with expanded playoffs
The playoffs are already too big as it is with mediocre teams in the Eastern Conference getting a seventh or eighth seed. That being said, desperate times call for desperate measures so why not experiment with an idea to boost ratings?
In my proposal, the playoffs would expand to 10 teams per conference. I'd say this is fair in order to give the teams on the "bubble" a fair chance. In this scenario, the Trail Blazers, Pelicans, Wizards, and Hornets would be in the postseason.
For teams that are eliminated (Warriors) or on the cusp of being eliminated (Timberwolves), there would be no point of going through training camp, a possible quarantine, and then playing meaningless games just so that their season is complete.
What will happen? Season continues at Disney World w/ truncated regular season
The NBA has been the quietest on how they would potentially restart the season. Would they continue the regular season? Possibly. Would they go straight into the playoffs? More likely. No one really knows but a resolution on the season will be announced likely in June.
Regardless of what happens, the NBA is a global game. If any league can reignite a sports-starved world, it is this league. The games will likely be played at a neutral site and it seems like Disney World in Orlando is the current frontrunner. Disney World has all the resources including food venues, practice facilities, and housing for this to work. ESPN also is owned by Walt Disney so broadcasting events won't be much of an issue.
The schedule would be formatted similar to how the Summer League is structured. Games would go on all day and teams would alternate at the ESPN Wide World of Sports basketball venues. The beauty of these arenas is that they are designed for television already. This YouTube video illustrates how the NBA is likely thinking in regards to this idea. I am definitely on board if the NBA players are on board.
Time is ticking to make a decision on whether or not to start up the season again but I think Commissioner Adam Silver will make the decision that will be in the best interest of the players when it's all said and done.
UPDATE: (June 4th, 2020) NBA approves 22-team restart in Orlando; return date set for July 31st.
National Hockey League (NHL)- suspended operations on March 12th
What would I do? Finish the season with expanded playoffs
Similar to the NBA, the season was nearly complete and the league would likely desire the opportunity to crown a champion, even if that means delaying next season. There would be enough games played to have a legitimate bracket and the expansion of playoffs would ensure that the players and coaches aren't shortchanged for their hard work.
What will happen? Season continues with expanded playoffs
There have been rumors that the NHL is planning on a 24-team playoff bracket with the top four teams in each conference possibly playing in a round-robin mini tournament to determine final seeding. I am a big fan of this idea and it could be approved as early as May 22nd. This is a a unique and fair bracket in my opinion. Hockey looks like it is on the cusp of returning sooner rather than later.
UPDATE: (June 8th, 2020) NHL plans to return with 24-team playoff; return date rumored for late-July
Major League Baseball (MLB)- suspended operations on March 12th
What would I do? Expand playoffs to seven teams per conference; play half the season
The MLB has thrown out an abundance of plans to restart the season. One idea was to create three 10-team, geographically based division system and play in three locations: Arizona, Texas, and Florida. That was scrapped. Another idea was for the teams to return to their Spring Training sites and play games in the already established Grapefruit and Cactus spring league divisions. That was also scrapped.
If the season does get going again, the likely scenario is teams would play in their home ballparks where possible. I'm also positive that the playoffs would be expanded in order to make up for lost revenue. However, if this plan does work out, the MLB Players Association (MLBPA) will need to figure things out quickly because time is running out.
What will happen? Season is canceled
Why would the NHL and NBA start back up but the MLB not resume? It’s simple for me. The MLB hadn’t even started their regular season yet. The earliest a season would start would be July at this point. In addition, baseball season typically ends in October and if a season doesn't start up soon, it will run into the 2021 season.
I would love to see my Chicago Cubs play at some point this year but I think that the complications of travel, the length of the season, and financial grievances with the players will prove to be too much for the MLB to overcome.
UPDATE: (June 23rd, 2020) MLB and MLBPA agree to unprecedented 60-game schedule; slated to begin July 23rd or 24th. Plan is to implement 40 division games and 20 inter-league games.
Major League Soccer (MLS)- suspended operations on March 12th
What should happen? MLS Orlando Tournament
A 26-team tournament in Orlando, FL has been rumored to be in the works. Soccer is probably the easiest sport to get back on track due to the nature of the sport. The German Bundesliga has already restarted and I’m sure the MLS will take cues from them to get their own season started again.
What will happen? MLS Orlando Tournament
I think Major League Soccer knows that playing a regular-style season is out of the question so how about experimenting with something different? I believe that Major League Soccer has a golden opportunity to get Americans excited about soccer. The tournament wouldn't have much meaning except to generate revenue and excitement. More than ever, the world needs something to be excited about and this tournament could provide that.
UPDATE: (June 3rd, 2020/ June 10th, 2020) MLSPA approved their CBA and the Major League Soccer season will resume in Orlando via tournament form; official return date July 8th
College Football- currently on track to start on time
What would I do? Cancel the season.
NCAA president Mark Emmert said that fall sports are likely a “no-go” if campuses are not open. I totally agree because if they did have sports in that case, it would blatantly show that their organization cares more about athletics than the athletes' education, which they probably do.
It is extremely difficult to say this but I think the season should be canceled. As a North Carolina Tar Heels football fan, this was supposed to be a season where we would jump in the stands and finally get to see our team win on a consistent basis. Sam Howell was a pleasure to watch and he’ll likely be a star for the next couple of years. In addition, watching CFB stars like Clemson's Trevor Lawrence, Ohio State's Justin Fields, and LSU's Ja'Marr Chase would provide us with a fantastic show.
The issue for starting the college football season is this: there are 130 Division One (D1) NCAA teams. A potential season during this pandemic involves a lot of travel and a lot of testing. No one can say with certainty how COVID-19’s impact will be in August or September so there is hope for things to get better. But what if there is a second coronavirus outbreak as many health experts are suggesting? That would not bode well for college football.
What will happen? The season will be canceled
Canceling the football season would be a HUGE financial burden for many schools and could force some athletic programs to shut down. I'm not really sure how the logistics on this would work if the season does happen. Perhaps playing a "conference-only"schedule could work to eliminate extensive travel? Playing in a neutral location is not a possibility because students need to go to class.
Many colleges are canceling their fall break and wrapping up classes by Thanksgiving for the projection of a second wave of COVID-19. It seems as if colleges want to create a "bubble" as much as possible and encouraging them to stay on campus. Universities want to keep students safe but also give them the education they are paying for.
If this projected outbreak comes to fruition, there is little chance the NCAA would want to put their athletes at risk to contract the virus by playing across the country in bowl games and the College Football Playoff. Unfortunately, I don't really see a way that having a football season in the fall makes logical sense. My heart says there will be a season but my head says there won't be. I hope I'm dead wrong though...
Thanks for reading and please leave a comment on what you think will happen in the sports world. Check back soon as I will post updates as they come!
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